I always loved this debate! I wrote a huge one of these at least 5 years ago, breaking down each team...the thread didn't go anywhere, probably because i didn't just ask the question and open it up, but wrote a mega-post that answered the question I asked.
Back then, I seem to remember the big 4 being:
-Duke (Brand/Boozer in primes; Deng; Battier; Maggette still legit; Hill; poor at PG).
-UNC (Wallace all-nba defense; Jameson 20/10; Carter; Felton a young and fast gun; Mccants and May looked at least solid)
-Kansas (Hinrich and Collison still good; Pierce at peak; Lafrentz/Gooden/Pollard still contributors)
-UConn (Ray at peak, Okafor and Gordon looked like impending contributors, especially Okafor as a defensive anchor; Hamilton still very good; Butler looked all-starrish)
Dark horse was always Wake, with a young/rookie CP3, Josh Howard looking like an all-star, and Duncan as an MVP candidate as the foundation.
How things change. The 1 year requirement for college has definitely made this game harder, as has the overall increase in league talent. I think the talent drought was ending when I last did this, with a lot of young guys about to take over.
Not sure who I take now. I kind of like Texas (when in doubt, take the best player, and I'm excluding high-school for this). Kansas could be good if Pierce maintains and the guys from last class pan out. Kentucky could dominate or implode. I like the potential of UCLA, especially if their current projected rookie pans out.