Author Topic: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.  (Read 4569 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #30 on: February 05, 2013, 08:57:35 AM »

Offline OttawaCeltic

  • Jared Sullinger
  • Posts: 332
  • Tommy Points: 19
Rondo last season ... +196 (second best on team)
Rondo this season ... -56 (second worst on team)

And for what it's worth...

Bass this season ... -125


Who knows why this is.  Maybe it's just the lack of floor spacing Ray gave and the instantaneous anywhere, anytime spot up shooting Ray also gave that Lee, Terry and Bradley obviously lack.  Maybe the load is just far too heavy on him and effecting his *ahem* defensive intensity.

Rondo has been mediocre this season, we all know it.  But I'd like to point out as garbage as he's been for us this season, it's an anomaly, not the norm.  He's played way better for us in the past and in the post season is obviously no comparison.

So rondo may be declining... so we MUST trade him for a big
Jameer an elite PG?Please, ask that to his garbage highlights.



PAUL PIERCE, NO!

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #31 on: February 05, 2013, 09:19:44 AM »

Offline BballTim

  • Sam Jones
  • **********************
  • Posts: 22485
  • Tommy Points: 1034
Up to the point where Rondo got injured, he was not having his best year.



It happens. 


It doesn't mean it is a trend.
Actually, I think statistically he WAS having his best year, wasn't he?

He shot better.


But his assist to TO ratio was worse. 


He was foul rate was up.  And other teams PGs were having better luck this season.
Yeah, overall though his improved shooting probably made up for the first two aspects.

The drop off in his defense was more problematic.

Opposing PG production hard to disentangle that from Terry being in the starting line up. Terry would go on the weakest offensive threat the other team had (if they had a Bogans type), or the PG if none really fit the bill.

Not true. For example, Terry was the player guarding Monta Ellis.

We usually didn't do any cross matching, Terry stayed with SGs and Rondo with PGs, when logic should've dictated the should've switched assignments most of the time.

  I remember Rondo generally playing the  tougher assignment when he was in with Terry. Switching assignments was fairly typical earlier this year (and late this year with Bradley playing).

When he was on the floor with Rondo, very rarely did they put Terry on the PG assignment. I really can't recall an instance in which Rondo's assignment was not the PG. I do recall though screaming for Doc to constantly change the assignments as Terry was simply overmatched by SGs, and Doc refused to put Rondo on them.

Of course, a play here and there, a pick is set and they switched in those instances, but I can't recall a game in which Doc assigned Terry to the PG while Rondo was on the floor.

In fact, I give credit to the improvement to Terry's defense specifically to finally him guarding PGs rather than SGs.

Edit: But the Bogans point above is completely true, but nothing to do with Rondo though. That one has more to do with Pierce on Joe Johnson than anything.

  Off the top of my head I know Rondo spent much of the opening game guarding Wade. He also spent a lot of time guarding Harden when we were in Houston, he spent much of at least one of the Bucks games on Ellis, he spent much of at least 1 game on Hamilton, he guarded Stuckey a lot instead of Knight.

I'm pretty sure Wade played plenty of PG minutes in that game, and I think Wade was guarding Rondo in turn.

Houston was one of the few games I didn't manage to watch.

Don't see the point of mentioning Stuckey and Knight, Knight is a better offensive player at the moment, and starting ahead of Stuckey, and having a more succesful season so far. Plus, Stuckey plays PG too.

Hamilton I don't recall the circumstances exactly. He was destroying everyone in the post if I recall correctly, so it could've been just a matter of trying something different.

In any case, the point in all of this is that there was never a plan to put Rondo on the toughest match-up, on the best offensive player. Did he occasionally end up doing so? Sure, but that's true for just about everyone in the league and the team.

It's not like when you put Bradley in there who pretty much automatically either goes to the biggest threat, or goes to the PG to disrupt the offense. That wasn't the dynamic being played when Rondo and Terry were together.

  Chalmers played 36 minutes opening night. I can remember watching long stretches of plenty of games where we were cross-matching assignments because Rondo was covering the sg and not the pg. There were games where Rondo started out guarding the sg and games where Rondo would switch to cover the hot player.

Yes, he played 36 minutes, Norris Cole played 6, who took on the rest of the minutes? Well that was Wade.

  I'm unsure why I spent the time checking those 6 minutes but Wade was on the bench for 4 of them.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #32 on: February 05, 2013, 11:11:59 AM »

Offline mmmmm

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1395
  • Tommy Points: 209


But his assist to TO ratio was worse. 


Probably at least partially reflective of the poor shooting of his teammates.  Consider that Rondo has been on the floor a ton of minutes with Bass, Pierce & Terry (plus a still-getting-back-into-it Avery Bradley) during their prolonged shooting slumps.

This has almost certainly left many a potential assist as just that.  Potential.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #33 on: February 05, 2013, 11:24:29 AM »

Offline mmmmm

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1395
  • Tommy Points: 209
Up to the point where Rondo got injured, he was not having his best year.



It happens. 


It doesn't mean it is a trend.
Actually, I think statistically he WAS having his best year, wasn't he?

He shot better.


But his assist to TO ratio was worse. 


He was foul rate was up.  And other teams PGs were having better luck this season.
Yeah, overall though his improved shooting probably made up for the first two aspects.

The drop off in his defense was more problematic.

Opposing PG production hard to disentangle that from Terry being in the starting line up. Terry would go on the weakest offensive threat the other team had (if they had a Bogans type), or the PG if none really fit the bill.

Not true. For example, Terry was the player guarding Monta Ellis.

We usually didn't do any cross matching, Terry stayed with SGs and Rondo with PGs, when logic should've dictated the should've switched assignments most of the time.

  I remember Rondo generally playing the  tougher assignment when he was in with Terry. Switching assignments was fairly typical earlier this year (and late this year with Bradley playing).

When he was on the floor with Rondo, very rarely did they put Terry on the PG assignment. I really can't recall an instance in which Rondo's assignment was not the PG. I do recall though screaming for Doc to constantly change the assignments as Terry was simply overmatched by SGs, and Doc refused to put Rondo on them.

Of course, a play here and there, a pick is set and they switched in those instances, but I can't recall a game in which Doc assigned Terry to the PG while Rondo was on the floor.

In fact, I give credit to the improvement to Terry's defense specifically to finally him guarding PGs rather than SGs.

Edit: But the Bogans point above is completely true, but nothing to do with Rondo though. That one has more to do with Pierce on Joe Johnson than anything.

  Off the top of my head I know Rondo spent much of the opening game guarding Wade. He also spent a lot of time guarding Harden when we were in Houston, he spent much of at least one of the Bucks games on Ellis, he spent much of at least 1 game on Hamilton, he guarded Stuckey a lot instead of Knight.

I'm pretty sure Wade played plenty of PG minutes in that game, and I think Wade was guarding Rondo in turn.

Houston was one of the few games I didn't manage to watch.

Don't see the point of mentioning Stuckey and Knight, Knight is a better offensive player at the moment, and starting ahead of Stuckey, and having a more succesful season so far. Plus, Stuckey plays PG too.

Hamilton I don't recall the circumstances exactly. He was destroying everyone in the post if I recall correctly, so it could've been just a matter of trying something different.

In any case, the point in all of this is that there was never a plan to put Rondo on the toughest match-up, on the best offensive player. Did he occasionally end up doing so? Sure, but that's true for just about everyone in the league and the team.

It's not like when you put Bradley in there who pretty much automatically either goes to the biggest threat, or goes to the PG to disrupt the offense. That wasn't the dynamic being played when Rondo and Terry were together.

  Chalmers played 36 minutes opening night. I can remember watching long stretches of plenty of games where we were cross-matching assignments because Rondo was covering the sg and not the pg. There were games where Rondo started out guarding the sg and games where Rondo would switch to cover the hot player.

Yes, he played 36 minutes, Norris Cole played 6, who took on the rest of the minutes? Well that was Wade.

  I'm unsure why I spent the time checking those 6 minutes but Wade was on the bench for 4 of them.

Just to add a note on this thread, Rondo's two largest by-minute 5-man units were with the starting front 3 (PP+BB+KG) and either Terry (221 minutes) or Bradley (123 minutes).

Surprisingly, the difference in DRtg of those two units is negligible.  Both were very good.  With Terry it was .99 points per possession and with Bradley it was .98 points per possesion.   

That's 343 minutes in aggregate of Rondo with the more experienced players in this system with a very solid .99 DRtg.

His overall DRtg (1.04) pretty clearly was inflated by all the other, small minute lineups he was in that incorporated other, less experienced teammates still learning the defensive system through the first half of the season.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #34 on: February 05, 2013, 12:35:49 PM »

Offline wdleehi

  • Forums ViceRoy
  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30873
  • Tommy Points: 1366
  • Pre-school artwork


But his assist to TO ratio was worse. 


Probably at least partially reflective of the poor shooting of his teammates.  Consider that Rondo has been on the floor a ton of minutes with Bass, Pierce & Terry (plus a still-getting-back-into-it Avery Bradley) during their prolonged shooting slumps.

This has almost certainly left many a potential assist as just that.  Potential.


The number of assists didn't go down. The number of TOs went up. 


That's not missed shots.


Running the Clippers with Redz.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #35 on: February 05, 2013, 12:50:54 PM »

Offline BballTim

  • Sam Jones
  • **********************
  • Posts: 22485
  • Tommy Points: 1034


But his assist to TO ratio was worse. 


Probably at least partially reflective of the poor shooting of his teammates.  Consider that Rondo has been on the floor a ton of minutes with Bass, Pierce & Terry (plus a still-getting-back-into-it Avery Bradley) during their prolonged shooting slumps.

This has almost certainly left many a potential assist as just that.  Potential.


The number of assists didn't go down. The number of TOs went up. 


That's not missed shots.

  Missed shots would imply that more passes were needed to get the same number of assists.

  Also consider that we usually start the season with a pretty set lineup and rotations and add in players in mid-season. His turnovers IMO tend to go up a little after the trades/buyout signings. This year we've been trying to integrate a lot of new people and we haven't had steady rotations all year.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #36 on: February 05, 2013, 12:52:46 PM »

Offline wdleehi

  • Forums ViceRoy
  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30873
  • Tommy Points: 1366
  • Pre-school artwork


But his assist to TO ratio was worse. 


Probably at least partially reflective of the poor shooting of his teammates.  Consider that Rondo has been on the floor a ton of minutes with Bass, Pierce & Terry (plus a still-getting-back-into-it Avery Bradley) during their prolonged shooting slumps.

This has almost certainly left many a potential assist as just that.  Potential.


The number of assists didn't go down. The number of TOs went up. 


That's not missed shots.

  Missed shots would imply that more passes were needed to get the same number of assists.

  Also consider that we usually start the season with a pretty set lineup and rotations and add in players in mid-season. His turnovers IMO tend to go up a little after the trades/buyout signings. This year we've been trying to integrate a lot of new people and we haven't had steady rotations all year.



To me, it looks like he was pressing on offense.


He was having a down year defensively.



He can and should play better when he is healthy. 


Running the Clippers with Redz.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #37 on: February 05, 2013, 01:01:47 PM »

Online SHAQATTACK

  • NCE
  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9438
  • Tommy Points: 491
somebody mentioned...giving Rondo the keys to the team went to his head...........I think there some truth to this , and Doc got sucked into handing the reins to Rondo an stay out of his way.

BAD. IDEA..........Rondo has screwed up the teams play, and not enough people are contributing when he is on the court.     

the power has went to his head some,   making him a bit of a diva,  lazy on defense and over value of himself to the team.        other words he has the BIG HEAD.
This is ok.......tif you are walking the walk.....Rondo an't getting done ., is the problem

for every Magnificent play he makes, this year comes a stupid errant pass,  defensive lapse,or other bone head play.

when he recovers.   if Doc doesn't get his mind right, I say trade him for a decent big

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #38 on: February 05, 2013, 01:26:07 PM »

Offline mmmmm

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1395
  • Tommy Points: 209


But his assist to TO ratio was worse. 


Probably at least partially reflective of the poor shooting of his teammates.  Consider that Rondo has been on the floor a ton of minutes with Bass, Pierce & Terry (plus a still-getting-back-into-it Avery Bradley) during their prolonged shooting slumps.

This has almost certainly left many a potential assist as just that.  Potential.


The number of assists didn't go down. The number of TOs went up. 


That's not missed shots.
Well, that's why I qualified it with 'partly'.

His TO's per 40 minutes went up from 4.0 last year to 4.2 this year.

His Assists dropped from 12.7 down to 11.8.   A drop of 0.9 assists per 40 minutes.

Where did it go?

Well, as others have mentioned, he has been taking more shots:  His FGA went up from 11.7 up to 13.1 - an increase of 1.4.

The ratio of TOs to the total of Assists+FGA went from .164 last year to .169 this year.  Hardly a dramatic shift.

I don't know off hand (though others do track this) how many 'assist attempts' he had that did not result in a made shot (solely because the shot missed).  It is only logical that it had a small up-tick, though, given the higher  miss rates (i.e. lower FG%) that his floor mates had compared to prior seasons.

If we included the number of 'assist attempts' in the denominator of the ratio, I suspect the ratio has hardly changed at all, or possibly gone down.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #39 on: February 05, 2013, 01:36:57 PM »

Offline mmmmm

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1395
  • Tommy Points: 209


But his assist to TO ratio was worse. 


Probably at least partially reflective of the poor shooting of his teammates.  Consider that Rondo has been on the floor a ton of minutes with Bass, Pierce & Terry (plus a still-getting-back-into-it Avery Bradley) during their prolonged shooting slumps.

This has almost certainly left many a potential assist as just that.  Potential.


The number of assists didn't go down. The number of TOs went up. 


That's not missed shots.

  Missed shots would imply that more passes were needed to get the same number of assists.

  Also consider that we usually start the season with a pretty set lineup and rotations and add in players in mid-season. His turnovers IMO tend to go up a little after the trades/buyout signings. This year we've been trying to integrate a lot of new people and we haven't had steady rotations all year.



To me, it looks like he was pressing on offense.


I agree.  It looks, to you, like he was pressing on offense.

Quote
He was having a down year defensively.



Well, as I pointed out elsewhere, not when he was on the floor with the starters (99 DRtg).   His DRtg was only really high in some lineups mixing in new guys.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #40 on: February 05, 2013, 01:59:55 PM »

Offline wdleehi

  • Forums ViceRoy
  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30873
  • Tommy Points: 1366
  • Pre-school artwork


But his assist to TO ratio was worse. 


Probably at least partially reflective of the poor shooting of his teammates.  Consider that Rondo has been on the floor a ton of minutes with Bass, Pierce & Terry (plus a still-getting-back-into-it Avery Bradley) during their prolonged shooting slumps.

This has almost certainly left many a potential assist as just that.  Potential.


The number of assists didn't go down. The number of TOs went up. 


That's not missed shots.

  Missed shots would imply that more passes were needed to get the same number of assists.

  Also consider that we usually start the season with a pretty set lineup and rotations and add in players in mid-season. His turnovers IMO tend to go up a little after the trades/buyout signings. This year we've been trying to integrate a lot of new people and we haven't had steady rotations all year.



To me, it looks like he was pressing on offense.


I agree.  It looks, to you, like he was pressing on offense.

Quote
He was having a down year defensively.



Well, as I pointed out elsewhere, not when he was on the floor with the starters (99 DRtg).   His DRtg was only really high in some lineups mixing in new guys.


So you think we were seeing Rondo at his best this year? 



I guess I just have a higher opinion on what he is capable and should be doing.


Running the Clippers with Redz.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #41 on: February 05, 2013, 02:15:27 PM »

Offline BballTim

  • Sam Jones
  • **********************
  • Posts: 22485
  • Tommy Points: 1034
somebody mentioned...giving Rondo the keys to the team went to his head...........I think there some truth to this , and Doc got sucked into handing the reins to Rondo an stay out of his way.

BAD. IDEA..........Rondo has screwed up the teams play, and not enough people are contributing when he is on the court.     

  Doc giving Rondo the keys to the team took us from being in a dogfight for the 8th seed to within a game of a trip to the finals. Rondo controlling the ball didn't just start, it's been going on for years and we've enjoyed quite a bit of success during that time.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #42 on: February 05, 2013, 02:30:59 PM »

Offline nickagneta

  • Bob Cousy
  • **************************
  • Posts: 26951
  • Tommy Points: 2005
Sooner or later this team will stop over compensating for the loss of two players and return to their baseline play that they had the rest of this season. When that happens, we will start losing games.

Sorry people, its going to happen, we aren't going to go 46-0 without Rondo. I can't wait to see how its going to be Rondo's fault for the C's losing then. Wait and see. This winning streak will end and a tough stretch will come. Who's fault will the bad play of this team's be then?
2015 CB HISTORICAL DRAFT: COMING THIS OCTOBER
FORMAT:
3 players from 1960-73
3 players from 1974-86
3 players from 1987-00
3 players from 2001-Pres
1 player from any era

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #43 on: February 05, 2013, 02:38:56 PM »

Offline guava_wrench

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8215
  • Tommy Points: 645
You're comparing stats of a full season to a stat of a half season.  That doesn't make any sense
It does when the OP mention being 2nd best on team versus 2nd worst. It also makes sense when comparing being positive versus being negative. It is the magnitude that doesn't compare well when you decrease the # of games considered, but you could just normalize that by doing the stat as a per game stat.

Like I said before, if a team is being outscored, the player with the most minutes will likely be in the red for +/-. If a team is scoring more that opponents, the player with the most minutes will likely be in the black. So that stats are less surprising than one might think. Per minute +/- would help control for the fact that he was playing so many more minutes than teammates.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #44 on: February 05, 2013, 02:39:25 PM »

Offline Fafnir

  • Global Moderator
  • Bob Cousy
  • **************************
  • Posts: 26143
  • Tommy Points: 984
Who's fault will the bad play of this team's be then?
If that happens probably Ainge, though Pierce is the other likely culprit (depending on his play).

Big test the next two weeks. Come on Cs.

 

Hello! Guest

Welcome to the CelticsBlog Forums.

Welcome to CelticsBlog