Author Topic: Say we do well without Rondo  (Read 3958 times)

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Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #15 on: January 30, 2013, 02:32:43 PM »

Online Fafnir

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the numbers show that we're better offensively with rondo, but worse defensively with rondo. the defense improves by a noticable margin when rondo is off the court.
Here's the thing though, the only reason we're better offensively without him is that we get more offensive rebounds when he's off the court. The OReb% difference is 19ish to 24ish, that's an effect of Sullinger's minutes given that he's the only Celtic who is an effective offensive rebounder.

Go take a look, our eFG% is higher with him on the court, our TOV% is lower, and our AST% is higher.

In previous year's Rondo's never had such a large OReb% differential, and usually he improves our offensive rebounding due to his own skill at it.

Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #16 on: January 30, 2013, 02:34:29 PM »

Online Fafnir

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Can't we technically still use the Amnesty clause on either Pierce or Rondo?  Not that I would do that (either is more valuable as a team asset or trade asset), but they are the only two guys we cam still use it on, right?

Personally I'd keep Pierce, his contract is expiring soon anyway.
Yes we can, though given that we can buy out Pierce for a discount neither one is really a good candidate.

Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #17 on: January 30, 2013, 03:06:21 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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If the Celtics do well without Rondo, the team should go forward under the assumption that the return of a healthy Rondo and the addition of a quality big via the MLE makes this team a contender next season.
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #18 on: January 30, 2013, 03:23:57 PM »

Offline scaryjerry

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Even mjs bulls were fine the regular season the year after he first retired...not going anywhere in the playoffs fellas

Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #19 on: January 30, 2013, 03:40:54 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Or is the teams vets following last year pattern of playing better the later the season got?

Yeah, if the team does well, there's never going to be a cut & dry answer on the value of Rondo.
Nothing in life is ever cut and dry.  You take the evidence and make a judgement.  I am merely making an assertion.

Good for you.  And I'm merely pointing out that we'll never get a straight answer on the subject.
Sure, and I am merely saying it is okay to go out on a limb and give an opinion (as opposed to waiting back and contributing nothing).

Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #20 on: January 30, 2013, 04:21:15 PM »

Offline BballTim

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the numbers show that we're better offensively with rondo, but worse defensively with rondo. the defense improves by a noticable margin when rondo is off the court.

  Part of that's no doubt due to the rotations. In the typical half Rondo and KG start and KG comes out after 5 minutes or so. KG goes back in near the end of the quarter and Rondo goes out shortly afterwards. Rondo comes back in either right before or right after KG comes back out of the game and Rondo plays out the half.

  So without considering how well Rondo plays defense at all you have a) KG playing most of the minutes that Rondo's out of the game, b) Rondo playing most of the minutes that KG's on the bench and c) Rondo on the court for almost all the minutes the starters are on the court for the other team. All three of these things will have a fairly significant negative affect on Rondo's defensive on/off numbers. I'd say the fact that his on/off numbers are close to even speaks well of his defense.

Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #21 on: January 30, 2013, 05:26:49 PM »

Offline Lightskinsmurf

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Doesn't matter, you're already beginning to see before we even do anything the excuses come in. People already beginning to say if we play better without rondo it means nothing.

If we play better with rondo tho that somehow means everything. I'm playing both sides in case you haven't noticed. I'm actually excited that i get to see how we play without rondo over a long period of time.

I know for a fact our defense won't suffer. Ill be paying attention to how well or poorly we play on offense tho. It shall be fun.

Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #22 on: January 30, 2013, 05:37:27 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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Or we'll be even better?

It's the same thing that's going on in Chicago right now. They're doing well right now, absolutely doing well, does it spell doom for Derrick Rose? Knowing that Rose would command the ball as well as Rondo does, should they?
We already KNOW how this team does with Rondo.  We are below .500.  The Chicago example is a bit different in that they are performing worse without Rose than with him. 

What if we actually perform better without Rondo?

Since the end of the '07-'08 season (I'm starting after the championship because Rondo didn't have as large a role offensively that year as he has since), Rondo has played in 320 regular season games and 66 playoff games.  I haven't looked up the W-L record in those games, but I know that it's well above .500. 

Yet you are making a long term determination on whether or not this team is better or worse off without Rondo based on 38 games played this season.  That's fairly short-sighted.

Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #23 on: January 30, 2013, 05:40:07 PM »

Offline ScottHow

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There are going to be a ton of fans that get tricked into thinking more regular season wins = contending.

Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #24 on: January 30, 2013, 05:40:35 PM »

Offline Lightskinsmurf

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Or we'll be even better?

It's the same thing that's going on in Chicago right now. They're doing well right now, absolutely doing well, does it spell doom for Derrick Rose? Knowing that Rose would command the ball as well as Rondo does, should they?
We already KNOW how this team does with Rondo.  We are below .500.  The Chicago example is a bit different in that they are performing worse without Rose than with him. 

What if we actually perform better without Rondo?

Since the end of the '07-'08 season (I'm starting after the championship because Rondo didn't have as large a role offensively that year as he has since), Rondo has played in 320 regular season games and 66 playoff games.  I haven't looked up the W-L record in those games, but I know that it's well above .500. 

Yet you are making a long term determination on whether or not this team is better or worse off without Rondo based on 38 games played this season.  That's fairly short-sighted.

Forget the wins and losses and stats. Actually watch the next 38 games and pay attention. That's enough games to see rather you like the way this team plays without rondo or not.

Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #25 on: January 30, 2013, 05:40:58 PM »

Offline clover

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the numbers show that we're better offensively with rondo, but worse defensively with rondo. the defense improves by a noticable margin when rondo is off the court.

I'm trying to wrap my head around that sentence.

Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #26 on: January 30, 2013, 05:41:42 PM »

Offline Lightskinsmurf

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There are going to be a ton of fans that get tricked into thinking more regular season wins = contending.

You say this like you believe the celtics are about to start playing well now. Who's to say we don't continue to play poorly?

Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #27 on: January 30, 2013, 05:43:34 PM »

Offline staticcc

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If Rondo still has the ball ALL the time when he comes back, then yes it will spell doom.
"The bigger the lie, the more they believe." - Bunk

Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #28 on: January 30, 2013, 05:50:07 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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If the Celtics do well without Rondo, the team should go forward under the assumption that the return of a healthy Rondo and the addition of a quality big via the MLE makes this team a contender next season.

I agree with this.

My biggest Cblog nightmare is the team does well over the next 20 games and we are bombarded with how much better we are without Rondo.  In the long run it is far more likely  that this team is way better off with Rajon Rondo than without him.


Re: Say we do well without Rondo
« Reply #29 on: January 30, 2013, 06:02:16 PM »

Offline Lightskinsmurf

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If the Celtics do well without Rondo, the team should go forward under the assumption that the return of a healthy Rondo and the addition of a quality big via the MLE makes this team a contender next season.

I agree with this.

My biggest Cblog nightmare is the team does well over the next 20 games and we are bombarded with how much better we are without Rondo.  In the long run it is far more likely  that this team is way better off with Rajon Rondo than without him.

It seems like alot of people fear the celtics doing well without rondo. I find this to be slightly amusing.


 

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