Author Topic: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.  (Read 2555 times)

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Offline snively

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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #30 on: January 30, 2013, 02:48:53 PM »
This team has already won too much to start tanking now. 

Their odds in the lottery would be pretty bad.

 

Thats actually true, but we can still use that mid round pick as a trade asset. Its still better than a late first.

I asked this question before, and no one responded:

What is the difference between the #11 pick in this year's draft (late lottery finish) and the #16 pick (making the playoffs as an 8 seed)?

I get to watch my team play in the playoffs.

As much as the odds are stacked against them, its better than praying for Lady Luck to deliver us to the promised land with very low odds of pick #11.

I'm not too enthused to watch an old Celtics team flame out in the first or second round.  In my mind, holding on to Pierce/KG/Terry for a mini-playoff run is a bit like trading for Payton and Toine in 04/05.  It didn't hurt us much (we lost a pick and few low-level prospects), but it didn't get us out of the first round either, and we ended up in the tank the next year anyway.

We don't have enough surplus assets for me to be comfortable giving Pierce/KG a Rondo-less swan song.  I want to go into asset accumulation mode as soon as possible.  I want multiple picks in the upcoming drafts, the higher the better.

When we last executed a successful rebuild/reload around a resident star, we had an abundance of picks and prospects: the #7 pick that turned Raef into Ratliff/Bassy, the #5 pick that was the key component in the Ray deal, and then of course the flood of picks that gave us a pool of talent to trade for KG/Ray and retain a good supporting cast: Perk, Big Al, Delonte, TA, Gerald and Rondo.  Overall 9 1st round picks in the first 5 years of Ainge's tenure.

Now we have 3 recent first round picks on the team, and only 5 1st round picks in the last 5 years (Giddens, Bradley, JJJ, Sully, Melo), with only 3 still on the team.

Winter is coming and I want to start refilling that pantry.

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Offline snively

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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #31 on: January 30, 2013, 02:56:05 PM »
There are young guys on the court now that can learn this season playing with KG and Pierce.  Why rob them of the opportunity?

KG and PP didn't do Giddens or JJJ much good.  We were able to develop Big Al, Perk, TA and Delonte on some bad teams. 

Talent/productivity has won out on our team, regardless of circumstance.
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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #32 on: January 30, 2013, 03:00:13 PM »
There are young guys on the court now that can learn this season playing with KG and Pierce.  Why rob them of the opportunity?

KG and PP didn't do Giddens or JJJ much good.  We were able to develop Big Al, Perk, TA and Delonte on some bad teams. 

Talent/productivity has won out on our team, regardless of circumstance.


AB and Sully have shown talent.  Now let them get the best help possible to grow by playing with KG and Pierce.


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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #33 on: January 30, 2013, 03:04:25 PM »
There are young guys on the court now that can learn this season playing with KG and Pierce.  Why rob them of the opportunity?

KG and PP didn't do Giddens or JJJ much good.  We were able to develop Big Al, Perk, TA and Delonte on some bad teams. 

Talent/productivity has won out on our team, regardless of circumstance.


AB and Sully have shown talent.  Now let them get the best help possible to grow by playing with KG and Pierce.

Rondo and Green too
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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #34 on: January 30, 2013, 03:05:30 PM »
There are young guys on the court now that can learn this season playing with KG and Pierce.  Why rob them of the opportunity?

KG and PP didn't do Giddens or JJJ much good.  We were able to develop Big Al, Perk, TA and Delonte on some bad teams. 

Talent/productivity has won out on our team, regardless of circumstance.


AB and Sully have shown talent.  Now let them get the best help possible to grow by playing with KG and Pierce.

Rondo and Green too


They are not 'young' anymore.  They are seasoned vets. 


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Online erisred

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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #35 on: January 30, 2013, 03:12:55 PM »
This team has already won too much to start tanking now. 

Their odds in the lottery would be pretty bad.

Thats actually true, but we can still use that mid round pick as a trade asset. Its still better than a late first.

I asked this question before, and no one responded:

What is the difference between the #11 pick in this year's draft (late lottery finish) and the #16 pick (making the playoffs as an 8 seed)?
Yeah, it would be hard to get higher than #10 (tank) and if we do make the playoffs I doubt we'll be [better than](edit) around #15 - 18 (7th or 8th seed).

So, let's look at what a couple of sites currently project for 9 to 11 and 15 to 18...


 9. Marcus Smart            PG    6'4"  200
    Mike Carter-Williams    PG    6'6"  185
10. Rudy Gobert             PF/C  7'1"  235
    Willie Cauley-Stein     C     7'0"  245
11. Alex Poythress          SF/PF 6'8"  239
    Glenn Robinson III      SF    6'6"  210

15. Tony Mitchell           SF/PF 6'8"  235
    Mason Plumlee           PF    6'11" 240
16. Otto Porter             SF    6'8"  200
    Dario Saric             PF    6'10" 225   
17. James McAdoo            SF/PF 6'9"  226
    Archie Goodwin          SG    6'4"  198
18. Trey Burke              PG    6'0"  180
    Trey Burke              PG    6'0"  180



I've seen a lot of these guys play last and this year and yes, the higher group look better, but not by much. IMO, in the 2013 draft after about the 4th pick it's going to pretty much be a crapshoot down to about #20. Noel, McLemore, Muhammad and Zeller appear to be the "cream of the crop" this year and the C's will NOT get one of them.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2013, 03:42:16 PM by erisred »

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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #36 on: January 30, 2013, 03:16:29 PM »
There are young guys on the court now that can learn this season playing with KG and Pierce.  Why rob them of the opportunity?

KG and PP didn't do Giddens or JJJ much good.  We were able to develop Big Al, Perk, TA and Delonte on some bad teams. 

Talent/productivity has won out on our team, regardless of circumstance.


AB and Sully have shown talent.  Now let them get the best help possible to grow by playing with KG and Pierce.
It might actually do them more good to not play with KG and PP.  Those guys might actually be stunting their growth because they take minutes, they take the crunch time shots, they draw the toughest matchups, etc.
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Offline Boris Badenov

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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #37 on: January 30, 2013, 03:17:38 PM »
If Danny's objective is to draft the son or nephew of a former NBA player, this draft is DEEP.

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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #38 on: January 30, 2013, 03:23:16 PM »
There are young guys on the court now that can learn this season playing with KG and Pierce.  Why rob them of the opportunity?

KG and PP didn't do Giddens or JJJ much good.  We were able to develop Big Al, Perk, TA and Delonte on some bad teams. 

Talent/productivity has won out on our team, regardless of circumstance.


AB and Sully have shown talent.  Now let them get the best help possible to grow by playing with KG and Pierce.
It might actually do them more good to not play with KG and PP.  Those guys might actually be stunting their growth because they take minutes, they take the crunch time shots, they draw the toughest matchups, etc.


I disagree.

AB has already been taking the tough assignments. 


Sully has has his minutes role out.


It is guys like Bass and Terry that can rob them of minutes, not the SF and C that makes life easier for them.


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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #39 on: January 30, 2013, 03:23:29 PM »
I don't understand the hate for tanking, those ping pong balls have always helped the Celtics out.

The idea my brother had is not just about the ping pong balls. It's also about giving the chunk of minutes to all players we have outside of PP and KG to further evaluate them, see if what roles they really fit into, and as he said "risk/reward possibility of their trade values getting higher or lower.

He doesn't necessarily want the top pick, he's saying that the Celtics are caught in the limbo, where they are to good to not be in the top 10 of the draft, but not good enough to make a deep run in the Playoffs, so why not play the young guys, and the other guys, save up KG and Pierce for on FINAL (he really emphasizes that to me) run next year with maybe a solid rookie and a much better evaluated team.

I hated the tanking idea, but I gotta give baby brother some credit here, because right now it makes sense.
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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #40 on: January 30, 2013, 03:26:08 PM »
I don't understand the hate for tanking, those ping pong balls have always helped the Celtics out.

The idea my brother had is not just about the ping pong balls. It's also about giving the chunk of minutes to all players we have outside of PP and KG to further evaluate them, see if what roles they really fit into, and as he said "risk/reward possibility of their trade values getting higher or lower.

He doesn't necessarily want the top pick, he's saying that the Celtics are caught in the limbo, where they are to good to not be in the top 10 of the draft, but not good enough to make a deep run in the Playoffs, so why not play the young guys, and the other guys, save up KG and Pierce for on FINAL (he really emphasizes that to me) run next year with maybe a solid rookie and a much better evaluated team.

I hated the tanking idea, but I gotta give baby brother some credit here, because right now it makes sense.


But the young guys are getting their opportunities already.  The guys that would be freed for more minutes without Pierce or KG are known NBA quantities. 


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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #41 on: January 30, 2013, 03:36:30 PM »
I don't understand the hate for tanking, those ping pong balls have always helped the Celtics out.

The idea my brother had is not just about the ping pong balls. It's also about giving the chunk of minutes to all players we have outside of PP and KG to further evaluate them, see if what roles they really fit into, and as he said "risk/reward possibility of their trade values getting higher or lower.

He doesn't necessarily want the top pick, he's saying that the Celtics are caught in the limbo, where they are to good to not be in the top 10 of the draft, but not good enough to make a deep run in the Playoffs, so why not play the young guys, and the other guys, save up KG and Pierce for on FINAL (he really emphasizes that to me) run next year with maybe a solid rookie and a much better evaluated team.

I hated the tanking idea, but I gotta give baby brother some credit here, because right now it makes sense.


But the young guys are getting their opportunities already.  The guys that would be freed for more minutes without Pierce or KG are known NBA quantities.

That's true Commish, but his idea is, with less minutes KG and PP are playing, and more minutes goes to these seasoned vets, chances are they'll be playing good, which in turn may increase their trade value in case moves are needed to be done. Add a mid round pick to it and we may land someone very significant. I understand it's a may, but it puts us in a much better shot of landing a big name. For example, say we play Jeff Green 36-38 minutes as a starter and he improved from what he is right now. And then come off season we get an offer of Green + our mid round pick for, say, Rudy Gay (i know salaries don't match, it's just an example). That's kind of what he meant. Play the vets, make them look good and make them players we can keep or and the very least very tradeable assets.

It also gives enough time to experiment different offensive schemes, in case a freak injury happened again. It also prevents more wear and tear for Captain and Big Ticket to "preserve them for the one FINAL run".
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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #42 on: January 30, 2013, 03:40:39 PM »
There are young guys on the court now that can learn this season playing with KG and Pierce.  Why rob them of the opportunity?

KG and PP didn't do Giddens or JJJ much good.  We were able to develop Big Al, Perk, TA and Delonte on some bad teams. 

Talent/productivity has won out on our team, regardless of circumstance.
Yeah, but remember, Big Al, Perk, TA and Delonte all went to the playoffs early on with Pierce. The team got really bad later when Pierce got hurt. Danny didn't expect to go to the bottom of the draft, it just sort of happened and even then he did trades to build the team not picks.

Sure, if he'd have gotten Durant and not the 5th pick (Green) things might have played out differently...no Allen, maybe no KG...but I think Danny's plan A never included tanking for the top pick. I doubt his new plan A (and probably B and C) doesn't include tanking now either.

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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #43 on: January 30, 2013, 04:01:07 PM »
Being a winner in the NBA is about more than talent, it is also about attitude. The Celtics need to keep Pierce and KG here and playing, to help instill winning attitudes, to build winner habits, in the players they leave behind. I know it sounds trite, but it is true! A big reason the Celtics were different in the 60's, 70's and 80's is that there were *always* players on those teams that carried the culture and the attitudes forward from "era" to era. The C's added Havlicek to a great Russell teams, Havlicek and Heinson were still there when Cowens, Silas and White came along, Maxwell came in, then Bird and McHale came in...they kept overlapping *Celtics* always with former stars, champions, winners ready to bring the new guys along. Yes, there were dips, rebuilding years, between "eras", but the chain of stars linked across the eras and bound the "dynasty" together.

That chain was broken with the deaths of Bias and then Lewis. The Celtics spent 20 years bouncing around as a not good enough, not bad enough team.

Danny was lucky and he was good! He turned water into wine and got 2 near superstars in Allen and KG to go along with Pierce, another new superstar, for...really...nothing much. He got the train rolling again, folks! Don't uncouple the cars now! The future of the C's success depends upon keeping that winning attitude and that depends upon keeping, at least, one of Pierce and KG here through the rebuild.

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Re: SI's Ian Thomsen: "probably wont see a worthwhile deal for Pierce." Tank.
« Reply #44 on: January 30, 2013, 06:36:33 PM »
I'm hoping that we hang on to the eighth seed and meet the Heat in the first round.  I give us a puncher's chance.

I trust Danny to find a nice piece with the sixteenth pick in the draft. 
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