Author Topic: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go  (Read 8383 times)

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Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #90 on: January 28, 2013, 03:39:26 AM »

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I don't think the offensive talent is anywhere near as good as you think. I think you need one of PP or Rondo to have a good team, otherwise we are terrible. We miss Ray as well because he could create his own shot. We have no one else that can create a shot other than PP. We won today because our defense tightened up. If there is ANY area we might be better sans Rondo it is D bit offensively I anticipate we will be terrible the remainder of the season. Just awful..

Lee, Terry and Barbosa and Pierce are all capable of creating their own shot if past history is anything to go off. 

So can Green - it seems very few of Green's baskets (aside from his corner threes) have been assisted this season.  He seems to score the vast majority of his points from a triple threat position, usually taking his opponent off the dribble or shooting over the top. 

Sully scores a lot of his points off offensive rebounds and putbacks.

Wilcox, Bradley, Bass and KG seem to be the guys who score a lot off assists, but we have plenty of guys who have historically been quite capable (if not dominant) of creating their own shots.

Again we may not be the best offensive team in the NBA, but the level of offensive talent we have is far better than a 20th or 23rd ranked offense would suggest. 

Sure I'd still love to have Rondo around rather than not, but there's really no evidence from this season which suggests we play better with him than without.  Or from past seasons really. There's really nothing to indicate that we can't maintain a record as good as (or better than) our current one with him out. 

We could very possibly sink like a brick in the ocean, but we don't know that for sure.  The numbers suggest we still have life.  I'd still rather make the playoffs (even if its a first round exit) rather than bomb out the season and rebuild.  If nothing else at least Pierce and KG keep some self respect, and our young guys get some playoff experience together.

Agree completely.

The roster suggests that without Rondo, we would likely run a lot of S/R's with JET/Barbosa/Pierce/Green as the ball handler, or drive/kick/pass plays-simple stuff.  That sounds like more ball movement and taking max advantage of each player's talent.  And that's quite a bit, though they'd probably have to work hard and execute to gain mismatch advantages.

But then we have this Rondo on the books...and, essentially, some talented journeymen at every position except Center and a need for a star player at pretty much any position, arguably except SF.  And we have all of our picks, an at least middling record (15th or so pick) this year, to sweeten with.

So if we can upgrade from a journeyman to (whatever is above that) with a Rondo/Journeyman/Pick/Wyc's Money offer, I think we'd have a pretty good shot at making the Finals.

Players out there that might fit the bill?

Pau Gasol

Al Jefferson

Rudy Gay (if you'd take a SF)

Okafor

Nene

I think this might be the thing that could provide the extra nuts to make a move that actually puts us over the top this year.

Imagine Okafor and KG together up front, with Bradley and Lee in the frontcourt, and Pierce and Green filling SF duties.

Sully and Wilcox/COllins/Melo off the bench for bigs.
JET and Barbosa as bench guards, both former 6POYs.

I think we have a shot at the whole thing, and perhaps better with some of these options than Rondo and Bass, frankly.

Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #91 on: January 28, 2013, 03:43:06 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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  In 07-08 we had a better record without KG than with him, in fact in KG's first 2 years on the Celts (mvp caliber player, before the knee injury) we had a better combined record without him than with him. Whatever conclusions that you're drawing from our record without Rondo about Rajon's value to the team would apply equally to KG on his first 2 years on the team. Is your claim that neither of them helped the team win games?

I love how you're twisting this to tell the story you want it to tell by only quoting the first two years of stats. 

How about our OVERALL record with KG vs without him since 2008?

How about our record without KG in that season when we lost him to the Knee injury?  From what I recall we were playing elite basketball before he got hurt, then afterwards we struggled badly to win games.  Wasn't our record not much better than .500 without KG that season?
In 09 we went from being the clear favorite to repeat as champions... to a team that was barely able to beat a young Bulls team in 7 games (many of which were overtime) thanks to some incredible play by Rondo and Ray Allen.  Our team overachieved that year... without KG it's a wonder we were even able to knock off that little Bulls team.  We played the Bulls again early the next season and I think we blew em out by like 50 points.  Totally different team without KG.

What a healthy KG brings to the table is irreplaceable.  You can't easily find a defensive anchor who can cover that much ground on the court thanks to his length...

What a healthy Rondo brings to the table (passing ability) is fantastic, but if you have scorers your team can adjust.  Our team tends to win games when Rondo sits, but it's usually become someone steps up.  Pierce historically has been that player.  Controlling the ball is a role Pierce has held for most of his career (including our title year when Rondo was merely a supporting cast role player).

Losing Rondo is a bummer.  Our offense absolutely will not look the same without him... but that doesn't mean our offense will be significantly worse without him. 

There might be a short term period of adjustment, but when the dust settles we'll be right back to being that mediocre .500 team we all know and love.

Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #92 on: January 28, 2013, 03:56:56 AM »

Offline BballTim

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  In 07-08 we had a better record without KG than with him, in fact in KG's first 2 years on the Celts (mvp caliber player, before the knee injury) we had a better combined record without him than with him. Whatever conclusions that you're drawing from our record without Rondo about Rajon's value to the team would apply equally to KG on his first 2 years on the team. Is your claim that neither of them helped the team win games?

I love how you're twisting this to tell the story you want it to tell by only quoting the first two years of stats. 

How about our OVERALL record with KG vs without him since 2008?

How about our record without KG in that season when we lost him to the Knee injury?  From what I recall we were playing elite basketball before he got hurt, then afterwards we struggled badly to win games.  Wasn't our record not much better than .500 without KG that season?

  I'm not twisting this, I'm providing context. If you're going to say that on/off numbers indicate one thing for Rondo you should be able to apply the same analysis using the same stats to other players. People pounce on numbers that appear to make Rondo look bad without any real idea about whether there's any validity to their criticisms.

  If you're unwilling to accept that the same stats that you're using to evaluate Rondo can also be used to evaluate other players (like a pre-injury KG) then you should re-think your criticism, not accuse me of twisting things.

  But, to answer your questions, we didn't struggle badly to win games after KG was injured, we were 18-7 without him that year. And if the numbers in your earlier post about Rondo were correct we're 26-16 without him since the start of the 07-08 season, a 62% winning percentage. In that same time (since the beginning of the KG era) we're 42-24 without KG, a 64% winning percentage.

  So, again, let me know what you think that winning record without Rondo says about his contribution, just realize that it says the exact same thing about KG.

Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #93 on: January 28, 2013, 04:02:55 AM »

Offline BballTim

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  In 07-08 we had a better record without KG than with him, in fact in KG's first 2 years on the Celts (mvp caliber player, before the knee injury) we had a better combined record without him than with him. Whatever conclusions that you're drawing from our record without Rondo about Rajon's value to the team would apply equally to KG on his first 2 years on the team. Is your claim that neither of them helped the team win games?

I love how you're twisting this to tell the story you want it to tell by only quoting the first two years of stats. 

How about our OVERALL record with KG vs without him since 2008?

How about our record without KG in that season when we lost him to the Knee injury?  From what I recall we were playing elite basketball before he got hurt, then afterwards we struggled badly to win games.  Wasn't our record not much better than .500 without KG that season?
In 09 we went from being the clear favorite to repeat as champions... to a team that was barely able to beat a young Bulls team in 7 games (many of which were overtime) thanks to some incredible play by Rondo and Ray Allen.  Our team overachieved that year... without KG it's a wonder we were even able to knock off that little Bulls team.  We played the Bulls again early the next season and I think we blew em out by like 50 points.  Totally different team without KG.

What a healthy KG brings to the table is irreplaceable.  You can't easily find a defensive anchor who can cover that much ground on the court thanks to his length...

What a healthy Rondo brings to the table (passing ability) is fantastic, but if you have scorers your team can adjust.  Our team tends to win games when Rondo sits, but it's usually become someone steps up.  Pierce historically has been that player.  Controlling the ball is a role Pierce has held for most of his career (including our title year when Rondo was merely a supporting cast role player).

Losing Rondo is a bummer.  Our offense absolutely will not look the same without him... but that doesn't mean our offense will be significantly worse without him. 

There might be a short term period of adjustment, but when the dust settles we'll be right back to being that mediocre .500 team we all know and love.

  As this thread seems to be showing, our record in the big three era has been better without KG than without Rondo. Claiming that we tend to win games without Rondo while waxing poetic about how irreplaceable KG is fairly ridiculous given the circumstances.

Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #94 on: January 28, 2013, 04:21:25 AM »

Offline BballTim

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  In 07-08 we had a better record without KG than with him, in fact in KG's first 2 years on the Celts (mvp caliber player, before the knee injury) we had a better combined record without him than with him. Whatever conclusions that you're drawing from our record without Rondo about Rajon's value to the team would apply equally to KG on his first 2 years on the team. Is your claim that neither of them helped the team win games?

I love how you're twisting this to tell the story you want it to tell by only quoting the first two years of stats. 

How about our OVERALL record with KG vs without him since 2008?

How about our record without KG in that season when we lost him to the Knee injury?  From what I recall we were playing elite basketball before he got hurt, then afterwards we struggled badly to win games.  Wasn't our record not much better than .500 without KG that season?
In 09 we went from being the clear favorite to repeat as champions... to a team that was barely able to beat a young Bulls team in 7 games (many of which were overtime) thanks to some incredible play by Rondo and Ray Allen.  Our team overachieved that year... without KG it's a wonder we were even able to knock off that little Bulls team.

  Keep in mind we also lost Leon early in the Chicago series. Multiple injuries at the same position are hard to overcome. While we clearly missed KG and probably would have won the title without him it's fairly likely we'd have made it to the ECF with Powe playing. Instead we had to play our only backup big, SCAL, 20+ minutes a game.

Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #95 on: January 28, 2013, 04:25:10 AM »

Offline cltc5

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Look at how much life our offense had today without Rondo.  With in in the lineup it's just a stagnant half court set where he dribbles the ball for 10-15 seconds, makes one pass, and the possession is over.  This is how he racks up the majority of his assists (they aren't all ESPN highlight alley oops to KG, or behind the back passes). 
Without him, the players just play natural basketball.  It's a dynamic game; you have to adjust and take what's given to you.  They didn't just stand around today and watch Rondo dribble top of the key. 
Rondo plays hard and he can fill up a stat sheet no question, but he's not a great team player.  Just look at 2 triple doubles, and two losses.  Pierce just played hard today and got his triple double; he didn't just hang around the rim to get that 10th board.





When your pg is your leading scorer night in and out there's something wrong with your offensive flow.  Is there another point guard in the league in which so much of the offense surrounds?   Maybe Westbrook but he's a gunner instinctively.  Relying on our pg to lead in every aspect denies the rest if the team what they need to do.  It's been proven were capable of production without him.  A pg should be the facilitator not the entire team.

  Once again we have a below average offensive game without Rondo and people talk about how great it looked. And if you're going to use our record in games where Rondo has a triple double as an indication of whether he's a great team player, look at the rest of them as well. We aren't 0-2 when Rondo has triple doubles, we're 23-5.

I think there is a lot of truth to this.  We had pretty much our best def game of the year, but had to really fight / scrape out a really tough win. 

I just am getting tired of the double standard with Rondo.  RR gets a triple double and he is stat padding, PP gets one and he had a great overall game.  It makes no sense.  does everyone not want RR to score, rebound and get assists?

Rondo or no Rondo if we can't get higher % shots or improve our fg % it is going to be hard to get Wins. Hard to point to this as a typical game as well.  KG played 45 min and PP played 49 min just getting by on fumes at the end.  I mean we had no choice, but my point is we can't expect this type of mins / effort out of the old guys every night.  They won't make it to the playoffs.

Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #96 on: January 28, 2013, 06:28:02 AM »

Offline Mr Green

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It's not as bad as it looks.

Danny just needs to find a half decent center to post up and clog the middle on defense.

It's time for Green to start ahead of Pierce, who should take up the sixth man role to keep his legs fresh.

Sully will keep cleaning the glass like windex.

Lee, Terry, AB and Barbosa are more capable of covering both back court positions as an interchangable unit.

KG will take it to the next level in the post season and the Cs can shock the world, again.

Bleed green ladies and gentlemen!

Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #97 on: January 28, 2013, 06:48:59 AM »

Offline Gomesfan

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What is everyone's infatuation with Pau Gasol? He's not much younger than Pierce other KG. I don't think those issues the guy you rebuild with. This is a guy you try and add to a solid core making a run.
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Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #98 on: January 28, 2013, 07:43:15 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Quote from: BballTim
As this thread seems to be showing, our record in the big three era has been better without KG than without Rondo. Claiming that we tend to win games without Rondo while waxing poetic about how irreplaceable KG is fairly ridiculous given the circumstances.

We'll see...

I'm telling you right now that our most critical players are Pierce and KG.

Pierce (not Rondo) is our most important offensive player, because he is the one and only consistent offensive threat on this team.  The only guy who can demand double teams every time he touches the ball, and the only guy who can score pretty much at will when he gets hot.

KG is our most important defensive player, becuase he is the anchor and the orchestrator of our defense.  He talks, gets everybody in the right spots, and is the only big we have who's capable of protecting the paint.  His net defensive rating of (-8.58) currently ranks 4th in the entire league.  Our defensive rating with KG off the court (108.03) is pretty close to the worse defense in the league, while our defensive rating with him on the court (99.46) is among the best.

Rajon Rondo has a negative defensive rating AND a negative offensive rating according to the numbers right here:

http://basketballvalue.com/player.php?year=2012-2013&id=553


More importantly than individual numbers though is the lineups. 

Yes, if you look at all of our rotations that have played together, the majority of our top rotations feature Rondo as the PG:

1. Terry, Pierce, Green, Sullinger, Garnett (+51.67|9 mins)
2. Rondo, Lee, Green, Sullinger, Garnett (+49.51|22 mins)
3. Rondo, Bradley, Pierce, Green, Garnett (+37.04|18 mins)
4. Rondo, Lee, Pierce, Green, Garnett (+33.81|31 mins)
5. Rondo, Barbosa, Pierce, Bass Garnett (+33.33|15 mins)
6. Terry, Lee, Green, Sullinger, Garnett (+27.12|95 mins)
7. Rondo, Lee, Pierce, Sullinger, Garnett (+25.61|41 mins)

That said, we have two strong lineup options here (#2 and #6) which have so far been extremely effective despite Rondo not being in those rotations.

An interesting thing to note is that while Rondo is featured in 5 of these 7 lineups, the same can be said for both Pierce and (surprisingly enough) Jeff Green.

Look, it's obvious that Rondo has an impact on this team, but the point I'm trying to make here is that he doesn't have as big an impact as everybody says.  We are not immedinately doomoed without him - if guys like Terry, Lee and Green step up, we can easilly make up for his loss.

In fact I think those stats I quoted earlier showed that the Celtics average 23 assists per game with Rondo on the court, and 20 assists per game when he's not on the court.  This is actually a pretty small defecit ofonly 3 extra assists per game that we record as a team when Rondo is playing - clearly the other guys (be it Pierce, KG, Barbosa, etc) are upping their assists when Rondo isn't there.

I honestly think we are going to be roughly about as good as we were with Rondo.  While we will miss his talents, I think we will change our style of game with him out (which may make us less predictable and harder to prepare against) and I get the feeling one or two guys (I think Barbosa, Terry, Lee or Green) are going to lift their game in his absense. 

We shall see!

Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #99 on: January 28, 2013, 07:47:20 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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What is everyone's infatuation with Pau Gasol? He's not much younger than Pierce other KG. I don't think those issues the guy you rebuild with. This is a guy you try and add to a solid core making a run.

Agreed, Gasol is pretty much a bum right now.   He makes Gortat look like a hall of famer by comparison.

Gasol is a poor defender, he's shooting a horribly low FG% this year, he's plays older than he is (slow as a snail), and he has a history of dissapearing completely in critical games (such as the playoffs).  He also has one of the ugliest contacts in the NBA.

We aren't going to get Gasol with Bass and a pick - we'd need to give up something significant to get him back (to match salaries at the very least) and there's no way I'm willing to offer what we'd need to in order to get him in return.

There are so many bigs who are better value to us in terms of what they would provide vs what we'd pay them. 

Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #100 on: January 28, 2013, 08:10:43 AM »

Offline Kuberski1

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To win, you need to be good AND lucky, and I dare say this year we are neither.   2008 we were both in spades, and last year we benefited from some other teams' "un-luck" - specifically DRose going down giving us a relatively easy walk to the ECF, and no Bosh being a factor in going to 7 (yes, I know we had our own injuries last year as well, but our stars were healthy...).

In my book, this year is done, as we have basically a zero shot at the chip, whereas with Rondo, and enough bad luck with the elite teams, who knows...I was thinking we had a small (some say 5%) chance.

My guess is that Ainge watches the next couple of weeks or so to see how we fare, and see what other GMs are willing to give for KG and Paul.  If not interesting, he'll pass, and wait for summer....if he likes something, then I think he'd sit with KG and Paul and see how they feel about things.

It's a shame, because it closes the door, which was still slightly ajar, on a season that began with so much hope.  I thought DA had a fantastic summer, and genuinely felt we'd be a top tier team.   But it wasn't meant to be.  Sometimes, it's hard to be a fan!

Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #101 on: January 28, 2013, 08:21:34 AM »

Offline Gomesfan

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What is everyone's infatuation with Pau Gasol? He's not much younger than Pierce other KG. I don't think those issues the guy you rebuild with. This is a guy you try and add to a solid core making a run.

Agreed, Gasol is pretty much a bum right now.   He makes Gortat look like a hall of famer by comparison.

Gasol is a poor defender, he's shooting a horribly low FG% this year, he's plays older than he is (slow as a snail), and he has a history of dissapearing completely in critical games (such as the playoffs).  He also has one of the ugliest contacts in the NBA.

We aren't going to get Gasol with Bass and a pick - we'd need to give up something significant to get him back (to match salaries at the very least) and there's no way I'm willing to offer what we'd need to in order to get him in return.

There are so many bigs who are better value to us in terms of what they would provide vs what we'd pay them.
What kills me is people,before the Rondo injury wanted to trade Pierce for Gasol....I just never got it!!!
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Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #102 on: January 28, 2013, 10:17:24 AM »

Offline BballTim

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Quote from: BballTim
As this thread seems to be showing, our record in the big three era has been better without KG than without Rondo. Claiming that we tend to win games without Rondo while waxing poetic about how irreplaceable KG is fairly ridiculous given the circumstances.

We'll see...

I'm telling you right now that our most critical players are Pierce and KG.

Pierce (not Rondo) is our most important offensive player, because he is the one and only consistent offensive threat on this team.  The only guy who can demand double teams every time he touches the ball, and the only guy who can score pretty much at will when he gets hot.

KG is our most important defensive player, becuase he is the anchor and the orchestrator of our defense.  He talks, gets everybody in the right spots, and is the only big we have who's capable of protecting the paint.  His net defensive rating of (-8.58) currently ranks 4th in the entire league.  Our defensive rating with KG off the court (108.03) is pretty close to the worse defense in the league, while our defensive rating with him on the court (99.46) is among the best.

Rajon Rondo has a negative defensive rating AND a negative offensive rating according to the numbers right here:

http://basketballvalue.com/player.php?year=2012-2013&id=553


More importantly than individual numbers though is the lineups. 

Yes, if you look at all of our rotations that have played together, the majority of our top rotations feature Rondo as the PG:

1. Terry, Pierce, Green, Sullinger, Garnett (+51.67|9 mins)
2. Rondo, Lee, Green, Sullinger, Garnett (+49.51|22 mins)
3. Rondo, Bradley, Pierce, Green, Garnett (+37.04|18 mins)
4. Rondo, Lee, Pierce, Green, Garnett (+33.81|31 mins)
5. Rondo, Barbosa, Pierce, Bass Garnett (+33.33|15 mins)
6. Terry, Lee, Green, Sullinger, Garnett (+27.12|95 mins)
7. Rondo, Lee, Pierce, Sullinger, Garnett (+25.61|41 mins)

That said, we have two strong lineup options here (#2 and #6) which have so far been extremely effective despite Rondo not being in those rotations.

  We'll see. I think your choice of who our most important offensive player is based solely on who scores the most points is a little off, and I don't agree that PP demands a double team every time he touches the ball. He hasn't for a few years, which would be back when his "scoring at will" was something of a regular occurrence.

  I agree that KG's our most important defensive player but I'd caution you about using on/off numbers to show it. It's basically a comparison of how well he plays defense compared to our backup centers, and we don't have great defensive players behind him. If you think about this you'd come to the conclusion that if KG played the same way he is now and the defense improved when he was on the bench his on/off numbers would drop, so they don't necessarily track his level of play closely.

  His numbers earlier this year were much better than they are now, not because his play has slipped drastically but because (for whatever reason) we "fallen apart less" when he was out.

  I'm not a huge +/- guy so I don't go to that website. But I'd be curious why Rondo's 2 year adjusted +/- is so high. Isn't that more important than his raw +/- for this year (half a year, really, where a nagging injury or a few bad games can really skew results)? And are you really thinking that someone who's had a good +/- for a few years and a bad +/- for part of a year is playing drastically worse than they had been? And would you claim that your answer was true for all players and not just Rondo?

  Lastly, did you really examine the lineups that you listed above? Are you *that* confident that the top lineup is a strong one if it's only played together 9 minutes all year? Wouldn't you expect our strongest lineup to average more than 13-14 seconds a game?

Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #103 on: January 28, 2013, 10:37:54 AM »

Offline MBunge

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The only thing that prevents the loss of Rondo from being a totally crippling blow is that it ends the struggle that's been going on every year over whose team it is.  I'd bet that the inconsistency and chemistry problems that have killed this team will greatly fade now.

Mike

Re: Danny Ainge on the Direction the C's will go
« Reply #104 on: January 28, 2013, 10:38:32 AM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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If Ainge blows it up, it'll be the most idiotic move of his career as a GM.

and why's that? the chance at a title is clearly over, what's the point of keeping them together ?

Gives KG and Paul a chance to retire with the team they deserve to.  Sure, our championship hopes are done, but, if they could at least make the playoffs and go out giving a valiant effort, it'd be something the fans could remember.

Let KG and Paul retire at the end of this season if they want to, tank next year, then use the cap space we could have to rebuild.

Trading them now will likely result in bad contracts coming back our way.  No thanks.
This is exactly how I feel.

 

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