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Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« on: January 25, 2013, 02:30:12 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team.  In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense.  Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.

But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion.  How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?

I wanted to take a look at the offenses that other top assist-getters have run over the last 20 years or so.  Does leading the league in assists always correlate with having a high powered offense?


The following is a table (sorry for the rough formatting) listing the season assist-per-game leaders for the last 20 seasons, including this season.  Also listed are some of the key offensive stats for the teams the assist leaders played on, and how the teams ranked league-wide in each of those categories.


Seasons   APG Leader   APG   Team   Team ORtg   Team EFG%   Team PPG   Team Record
2012-2013   Rajon Rondo   11.1   BOS   102.1 (27th)   .493% (12th)   94.9 (23rd)   20-22 (17th)
2011-2012   Rajon Rondo   11.7   BOS   101.0 (26th)   .496% (10th)   91.8 (26th)   39-27 (10th)
2010-2011   Steve Nash   11.42   PHO   109.5 (9th)   .522 (5th)   105.0 (4th)   40-42 (17th)
2009-2010   Steve Nash   11.01   PHO   115.3 (1st)   .546 (1st)   110.2 (1st)   54-28 (5th)
2008-2009   Chris Paul   11.04   NOH   108.7 (12th)   .501 (13th)   95.8 (26th)   49-33 (10th)
2007-2008   Chris Paul   11.56   NOH   111.5 (5th)   .512 (6th)   100.9 (9th)   56-26 (4th)
2006-2007   Steve Nash   11.63   PHO   113.9 (1st)   .551 (1st)   110.2 (1st)   61-21 (2nd)
2005-2006   Steve Nash   10.46   PHO   111.5 (2nd)   .537 (1st)   108.4 (1st)   54-28 (4th)
2004-2005   Steve Nash   11.48   PHO   114.5 (1st)   .534 (1st)   110.4 (1st)   62-20 (1st)
2003-2004   Jason Kidd   9.22   NJN   100.8 (25th)   .471 (16th)   90.3 (22nd)   47-35 (9th)
2002-2003   Jason Kidd   8.9   NJN   103.8 (18th)   .468 (21st)   95.4 (14th)   49-33 (8th)
2001-2002   Andre Miller   10.9   CLE   104.6 (14th)   .477 (12th)   95.3 (16th)   29-53 (24th)
2000-2001   Jason Kidd   9.8   PHO   100.3 (22nd)   .460 (22nd)   94.0 (17th)   51-31 (8th)
1999-2000   Jason Kidd   10.1   PHO   104.6 (16th)   .491 (7th)   98.9 (12th)   53-29 (5th)
1998-1999   Jason Kidd   10.8   PHO   105.8 (3rd)   .481 (8th)   95.6 (3rd)   27-23 (14th)
1997-1998   Rod Strickland   10.54   WAS   105.2 (14th)   .476 (15th)   97.2 (8th)   42-40 (16th)
1996-1997   Mark Jackson   11.4   DEN / IND   104.5 (24th) / 105.8 (15th)   .486 (18th) / .490 (17th)   97.8 (13th) / 95.4 (20th)   21-61 (26th) / 39-43 (17th)
1995-1996   John Stockton   11.17   UTA   113.3 (2nd)   .517 (5th)   102.5 (10th)   55-27 (5th)
1994-1995   John Stockton   12.33   UTA   114.3 (4th)   .535 (2nd)   106.4 (5th)   60-22 (2nd)
1993-1994   John Stockton   12.57   UTA   108.6 (7th)   .490 (10th)   101.9 (10th)   53-29 (8th)
1992-1993   John Stockton   12.04   UTA   109.6 (6th)   .498 (11th)   106.2 (11th)   47-35 (10th)


The results aren't entirely surprising.  Steve Nash's teams are almost always near the top of the league in offensive categories.  Whatever he does in terms of running an offense, he does it well.  Even when he had crappy teammates his last two seasons in Phoenix, his teams were still in the top 3rd in the league offensively.

In fact, it looks as though the Celtics of this season and last are the weakest offenses among the twenty teams on the list -- the only team that comes close is the 2003-2004 Nets led by Jason Kidd.


I don't really have answers for this.  I'm not saying that Rondo is to blame for the Celtics' offensive struggles (though he must play some part).  But it has to be at least somewhat of an indictment on him that though he leads the league in assists, his teams are still very underwhelming offensively, right?
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Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2013, 02:35:24 AM »

Offline bfrombleacher

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Apparently Hornets in their final year of their Chris Paul era didn't have much offensive efficiency either.

Nash had a crappy support cast in Phoenix but the pieces fit. They ran and gunned. Not saying Nash wasn't a better play maker than Rondo though (because he was), just saying his support cast may have sucked but the pieces fit.

Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2013, 02:57:20 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Apparently Hornets in their final year of their Chris Paul era didn't have much offensive efficiency either.

Nash had a crappy support cast in Phoenix but the pieces fit. They ran and gunned. Not saying Nash wasn't a better play maker than Rondo though (because he was), just saying his support cast may have sucked but the pieces fit.

Well, even the 08-09 Hornets, though not a super powerful offensive team, were in the top half in most categories.  And those Hornets teams were pretty much just Chris Paul, David West, and Tyson Chandler.  The fact that Paul turned that into above average offensive production is pretty remarkable.  Even the 2010-2011 Hornets were better in terms of efficiency than the Celtics of this year and last.
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Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2013, 03:15:01 AM »

Offline RJ87

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I'm curious as to how many points in the paint those teams got. I'm assuming higher than what this current Celtics team averages.

Chris Paul may have "only" had Tyson and D.West but those guys got points in the paint. Nash had Amare as his pick and roll partner. Jason Kidd had pre-injuries Kenyon Martin, Stockton had Malone.... basically those point guards had big men who could get high percentage shots in the paint.

The Celtics don't really have that.  All of their bigs rely on jumpers, I feel like most of ths points we do get in the paint is a result of perimeter guys driving to the rim. If we had a consistent low post option, our offense would be better. But we live and die by the jumpshot.
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Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2013, 05:56:26 AM »

Offline Smutzy#9

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Just remember as well that before this year the previous 2 years pretty sure we were like almost dead last in field goal attempts but always shot a decent percentage thus converted more.

Then made up for it more on the defensive end which isnt quite showing this year

Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2013, 06:50:35 AM »

Offline BballTim

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It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team.  In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense.  Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.

But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion.  How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?


  It's fairly common knowledge that our abysmal offensive rebounding is the biggest drag on our offensive efficiency. If we were an average offensive rebounding team we'd be an above average offense.

Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2013, 09:13:13 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team.  In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense.  Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.

But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion.  How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?


  It's fairly common knowledge that our abysmal offensive rebounding is the biggest drag on our offensive efficiency. If we were an average offensive rebounding team we'd be an above average offense.

So did all the teams on this list have better offensive rebounding?

I guess I'm just wondering why in the last twenty years of assist leaders, Rondo's teams stand out pretty glaringly as the weakest offensively.
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Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2013, 09:32:23 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team.  In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense.  Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.

But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion.  How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?

I wanted to take a look at the offenses that other top assist-getters have run over the last 20 years or so.  Does leading the league in assists always correlate with having a high powered offense?


The following is a table (sorry for the rough formatting) listing the season assist-per-game leaders for the last 20 seasons, including this season.  Also listed are some of the key offensive stats for the teams the assist leaders played on, and how the teams ranked league-wide in each of those categories.


Seasons   APG Leader   APG   Team   Team ORtg   Team EFG%   Team PPG   Team Record
2012-2013   Rajon Rondo   11.1   BOS   102.1 (27th)   .493% (12th)   94.9 (23rd)   20-22 (17th)
2011-2012   Rajon Rondo   11.7   BOS   101.0 (26th)   .496% (10th)   91.8 (26th)   39-27 (10th)
2010-2011   Steve Nash   11.42   PHO   109.5 (9th)   .522 (5th)   105.0 (4th)   40-42 (17th)
2009-2010   Steve Nash   11.01   PHO   115.3 (1st)   .546 (1st)   110.2 (1st)   54-28 (5th)
2008-2009   Chris Paul   11.04   NOH   108.7 (12th)   .501 (13th)   95.8 (26th)   49-33 (10th)
2007-2008   Chris Paul   11.56   NOH   111.5 (5th)   .512 (6th)   100.9 (9th)   56-26 (4th)
2006-2007   Steve Nash   11.63   PHO   113.9 (1st)   .551 (1st)   110.2 (1st)   61-21 (2nd)
2005-2006   Steve Nash   10.46   PHO   111.5 (2nd)   .537 (1st)   108.4 (1st)   54-28 (4th)
2004-2005   Steve Nash   11.48   PHO   114.5 (1st)   .534 (1st)   110.4 (1st)   62-20 (1st)
2003-2004   Jason Kidd   9.22   NJN   100.8 (25th)   .471 (16th)   90.3 (22nd)   47-35 (9th)
2002-2003   Jason Kidd   8.9   NJN   103.8 (18th)   .468 (21st)   95.4 (14th)   49-33 (8th)
2001-2002   Andre Miller   10.9   CLE   104.6 (14th)   .477 (12th)   95.3 (16th)   29-53 (24th)
2000-2001   Jason Kidd   9.8   PHO   100.3 (22nd)   .460 (22nd)   94.0 (17th)   51-31 (8th)
1999-2000   Jason Kidd   10.1   PHO   104.6 (16th)   .491 (7th)   98.9 (12th)   53-29 (5th)
1998-1999   Jason Kidd   10.8   PHO   105.8 (3rd)   .481 (8th)   95.6 (3rd)   27-23 (14th)
1997-1998   Rod Strickland   10.54   WAS   105.2 (14th)   .476 (15th)   97.2 (8th)   42-40 (16th)
1996-1997   Mark Jackson   11.4   DEN / IND   104.5 (24th) / 105.8 (15th)   .486 (18th) / .490 (17th)   97.8 (13th) / 95.4 (20th)   21-61 (26th) / 39-43 (17th)
1995-1996   John Stockton   11.17   UTA   113.3 (2nd)   .517 (5th)   102.5 (10th)   55-27 (5th)
1994-1995   John Stockton   12.33   UTA   114.3 (4th)   .535 (2nd)   106.4 (5th)   60-22 (2nd)
1993-1994   John Stockton   12.57   UTA   108.6 (7th)   .490 (10th)   101.9 (10th)   53-29 (8th)
1992-1993   John Stockton   12.04   UTA   109.6 (6th)   .498 (11th)   106.2 (11th)   47-35 (10th)


The results aren't entirely surprising.  Steve Nash's teams are almost always near the top of the league in offensive categories.  Whatever he does in terms of running an offense, he does it well.  Even when he had crappy teammates his last two seasons in Phoenix, his teams were still in the top 3rd in the league offensively.

In fact, it looks as though the Celtics of this season and last are the weakest offenses among the twenty teams on the list -- the only team that comes close is the 2003-2004 Nets led by Jason Kidd.


I don't really have answers for this.  I'm not saying that Rondo is to blame for the Celtics' offensive struggles (though he must play some part).  But it has to be at least somewhat of an indictment on him that though he leads the league in assists, his teams are still very underwhelming offensively, right?

The answer is:  Shot location distribution.

The problem with our offensive efficiency is not the number of assists (assisted shots as a rule tend to be more efficient), but where we are taking shots from.

Over the last couple of seasons we have declined in the share of our shots that are taken 'at rim' and from beyond the 3PT arc.   Basically, a higher percentage of our shots are 2PT jumpers - which are the least efficent shot type for generating points.

If you categorize the former two categories ('At Rim' and 3PT) as 'high efficiency shots' then compare the share of our shots that are high efficiency to our resulting ORtg (points per 100 possessions) then you can see the fall-off pretty clearly:



There is a more detailed discussion of this in this thread:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=60222.msg1321413;topicseen

Basically, we don't have enough bigs who score down low and we don't take enough 3PT shots.
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Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2013, 10:03:32 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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The answer is:  Shot location distribution.

The problem with our offensive efficiency is not the number of assists (assisted shots as a rule tend to be more efficient), but where we are taking shots from.

Over the last couple of seasons we have declined in the share of our shots that are taken 'at rim' and from beyond the 3PT arc.   Basically, a higher percentage of our shots are 2PT jumpers - which are the least efficent shot type for generating points.

If you categorize the former two categories ('At Rim' and 3PT) as 'high efficiency shots' then compare the share of our shots that are high efficiency to our resulting ORtg (points per 100 possessions) then you can see the fall-off pretty clearly:



There is a more detailed discussion of this in this thread:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=60222.msg1321413;topicseen

Basically, we don't have enough bigs who score down low and we don't take enough 3PT shots.

What you're saying makes sense, and it's something I've read about in the past.

I guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?

Would Rondo be running one of the best offenses in the league if you gave him more bigs and more outside shooters?  Is it that Rondo has grown up in the league playing in an offensive "system" favoring slow, half-court play with a heavy emphasis on mid-range jumpshots and he needs to get more used to pushing the tempo and getting it to guys cutting to the rim or spotting up outside?

Would our offense be equally as bad if you switched Rondo for another prolific passer with a somewhat different skillset (e.g. a healthy Rubio or Steve Nash, or even somebody like Jrue Holiday or Greivis Vasquez) or do Rondo's weaknesses exacerbate the difficulties that this roster has in terms of taking and making shots from deep and in the paint?
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Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2013, 10:21:40 AM »

Offline pearljammer10

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No offensive rebounds = poor offensive rating.

Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2013, 10:31:40 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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I'm not saying that Rondo is to blame for the Celtics'

It sure seems from your follow up posts that what you are trying to do is blame the Celtics offensive problems on Rondo.

As long as you are the one bringing up stats looking for answers I say go research the following stats and see how they compared for all the teams listed:

Offensive rebounds per game
Offensive rebounding rate
Pace
Shot location distribution charts
Free throws attempted
Three point field goals attempted
The number of centers and forwards each team had that shot over 50%

Does anyone realize that the Celtics have exactly one player on their current roster who is a center or power forward who has a FG% above 50% and that is Chris Wilcox who barely plays? Do people realize that this team has been transformed into a mid range jump shooting team? Does anyone realize the Celtics philosophy of avoiding offensive rebounding is a massive offensive efficiency detractor?
« Last Edit: January 25, 2013, 10:56:58 AM by nickagneta »

Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2013, 10:48:21 AM »

Offline BballTim

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It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team.  In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense.  Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.

But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion.  How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?


  It's fairly common knowledge that our abysmal offensive rebounding is the biggest drag on our offensive efficiency. If we were an average offensive rebounding team we'd be an above average offense.

So did all the teams on this list have better offensive rebounding?

I guess I'm just wondering why in the last twenty years of assist leaders, Rondo's teams stand out pretty glaringly as the weakest offensively.

  Considering we set a record in terms of lowest OReb% last year, I'd say that yes, they were all better offensive rebounding teams. Our eFG% for the last 2 years is close to the middle of the pack (slightly lower) so we're obviously able to make shots on par with the other teams. We just take fewer shots.


Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2013, 10:55:32 AM »

Offline MBunge

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I guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?

The current Celtic offense was designed to essentially hide Rondo and Perk while evenly distributing shots among Pierce, KG and Ray.  It's not Rondo's fault that Doc has made little to no changes to that scheme in the last 4 years.

Mike

Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2013, 10:58:29 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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I guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?

The current Celtic offense was designed to essentially hide Rondo and Perk while evenly distributing shots among Pierce, KG and Ray.  It's not Rondo's fault that Doc has made little to no changes to that scheme in the last 4 years.

Mike
Gotta agree with this

Re: Assist Leaders and Team Offense
« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2013, 10:58:57 AM »

Offline soap07

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Quote
  It's fairly common knowledge that our abysmal offensive rebounding is the biggest drag on our offensive efficiency. If we were an average offensive rebounding team we'd be an above average offense.

It is fairly common knowledge that our offensive rebounding contributes to the poor offense, along with Rondo's inefficiency and the lack of outside shooting overall.