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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #390 on: March 30, 2013, 05:30:32 PM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

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There's only 5 guys in the league averaging 25 points or better a game. 25 ppg is kind of an alpha-dog stat, a trait Green doesn't really seem to possess.

Forgive me if this has been stated over and over in this epic thread, but I see Green as more of a Deng like player with better going to the basket skills. Not to stray but I'm more interested in seeing how he and Rondo co-exist next year. Green obviously thrives when having the ball more and I have faith they can adjust they're games accordingly. And to stray even more I think Bradley fits perfectly next to them being he seems to be at his best scoring off the ball in various ways and focusing on D.

Synergy!!!

Edit: First part in response to the 25 ppg dreams. Looks dumb now that I didn't quote it....

Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #391 on: March 30, 2013, 05:38:21 PM »

Offline kgainez

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There's only 5 guys in the league averaging 25 points or better a game. 25 ppg is kind of an alpha-dog stat, a trait Green doesn't really seem to possess.

Forgive me if this has been stated over and over in this epic thread, but I see Green as more of a Deng like player with better going to the basket skills. Not to stray but I'm more interested in seeing how he and Rondo co-exist next year. Green obviously thrives when having the ball more and I have faith they can adjust they're games accordingly. And to stray even more I think Bradley fits perfectly next to them being he seems to be at his best scoring off the ball in various ways and focusing on D.

Synergy!!!

Edit: First part in response to the 25 ppg dreams. Looks dumb now that I didn't quote it....

I'm not sure if we can say it's not a trait he has.
I mean he has games with 31, 43, and 27 last night. he looked like the Alpha dog in those games.
I think it's a trait he has, but one I'm not sure he knows how to cultivate. I think if Doc says he wants that, then he gives it. Idk if he will go out there every night and do it.

That's not to say that this whole thing he's got going on isn't building his confidence. If he starts and Doc kind of loosens the reigns, I don't see how it can't happen.

Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #392 on: March 30, 2013, 05:49:48 PM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

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There's only 5 guys in the league averaging 25 points or better a game. 25 ppg is kind of an alpha-dog stat, a trait Green doesn't really seem to possess.

Forgive me if this has been stated over and over in this epic thread, but I see Green as more of a Deng like player with better going to the basket skills. Not to stray but I'm more interested in seeing how he and Rondo co-exist next year. Green obviously thrives when having the ball more and I have faith they can adjust they're games accordingly. And to stray even more I think Bradley fits perfectly next to them being he seems to be at his best scoring off the ball in various ways and focusing on D.

Synergy!!!

Edit: First part in response to the 25 ppg dreams. Looks dumb now that I didn't quote it....

I'm not sure if we can say it's not a trait he has.
I mean he has games with 31, 43, and 27 last night. he looked like the Alpha dog in those games.
I think it's a trait he has, but one I'm not sure he knows how to cultivate. I think if Doc says he wants that, then he gives it. Idk if he will go out there every night and do it.

That's not to say that this whole thing he's got going on isn't building his confidence. If he starts and Doc kind of loosens the reigns, I don't see how it can't happen.

Well I don't doubt that playing next to Westbrook and Durant could swallow one's personality.....heck Westbrook alone...Then you factor in entering the season(after a year off) less than a year removed from heart surgery playing on a team that seemed to be forcing Rondo running every play and it remains cloudy what kind of player he can really be.


Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #393 on: March 30, 2013, 06:44:19 PM »

Offline Josh88

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Tony Delk scored 53 points in a game once, the 43 point game doesn't mean much of anything. His career scoring average is 13.5, after 5 years in the league, excluding last season. I would love someone to find me a single NBA player who averaged over 30 mpg in their first five seasons, and increased their scoring average by 12 ppg in their sixth season. It's unheard of.


Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #394 on: March 30, 2013, 06:44:41 PM »

Offline kgainez

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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #395 on: March 30, 2013, 07:29:26 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Jeff Green will NEVER average 25 points per game for an entire season. It won't happen. He's not that good.

Jeff Green in 387 career regular season games has scored more than 25 points in a game a whole 16 times(give or take). Are we to suddenly believe that a 6 year vet is suddenly going to go from scoring more than 25 points in a game 4% of the time to averaging 25PPG for a whole season?

Let's get real.

Jeff is having a good stretch. He has had good individual stretches before, but never the type of production to think he could be a 25 PPG performer. He's just not that good of a shooter or pure scorer to be able to do that. You have to be getting to the free throw line 8-10 times a game to average 25 PPG. Jeff doesn't have that in him.

He's probably playing his maximum best at about 18-19 PPG with 4 RPG and 3 APG. But expect him to put in about 36-38 MPG to do that.

And here's the other thing. Is he a numbers guy or team guy? Is he someone who will most likely only maximize his numbers on a bad or very mediocre team and tend to fall to the background on good to great teams? I think this is still very much in question.

Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #396 on: March 30, 2013, 08:13:08 PM »

Offline Bingbangbarros

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"He's probably playing his maximum best at about 18-19 PPG with 4 RPG and 3 APG. But expect him to put in about 36-38 MPG to do that."

I agree he's definitely not a 25ppg scorer. But he did average 16.5 ppg playing with KD and Westbrook which is pretty impressive. He seemed to take alot of jumpers and did not benefit from many easy buckets. With Rondo and a bigger role on this team I can envision him topping out at 20ppg if given the minutes. And while I'm always on him for his weak rebounding, he's shown that he can average over 6rpg as he did that on OKC for 2 years so that 4 is very low in my opinion. Hopefully he can get back to at least 6 rpg.



Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #397 on: March 30, 2013, 10:27:45 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

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Well, I'll take from our extremely small sample size to try to make a point. In his first start without KG, against one of the worst teams in the league, Jeff shot 11/14, an uncommon stat line, for 31 points. In his second start, he scored just 14 points in a total blowout to the Bobcats, when he shot just 4-for-11. His third start was yet again against Charlotte, but this time it was a blowout for US; he scored just 10 points (5-9, 0-1 from three) while snagging five boards and giving four assists. He started again the next game where he exploded for 43 points in our loss to Miami, where he basically just made all his layups. He played off the bench for two games until KG got injured, so he came in in the Memphis game, playing a whopping 45 minutes... shooting 4-for-10 and 1-for-4 from three point land, with just 12 points (5 rebounds, 4 assists). The next game against the Knicks, he built off his performance with his first double-double of the season (19/10) albeit in a losing effort. He had 6 assists. The next game, he scored 21 against Cleveland, but despite shooting just 6-for-17 until the final shot, the team went to him for his second game winner of the year. (I suppose clutch shooters are those who can score when their team needs them most, whether they're shooting 0-10 or 10-10) Last game against Atlanta, our team really put trust into him as he took 20 field goals (second only to the Miami game with 21 FGAs)... despite not getting the calls he probably should have gotten, he shot an impressive 11-20, along with three 3-pointers for a total of 27 points.

For argument's sake, I'd like to only take into consideration his games thus far in the second half of the season. Throughout his career, he has outplayed his first-half stats in the second-half for each season, for whatever reason. In addition, he was returning from his heart surgery, definitely complicating his return. Finally, like most players on this team, he was having trouble adjusting while "consistently being inconsistent." So, I'll start by looking at his second-half stats (anything from game 42 onwards).

His points-per-FG average is 1.38 (definitely above average). He's averaging 40.7% on his three point attempts (definitely above average), thus his points-per-3PA is 1.22 (decent). His two-point field goal percentage is a pretty average 33.9% (comparing among starting small-forwards) and he's shooting an above career-average 84.4% from the charity stripe. All-in-all, these are at- or above-average stats for any small forward, and would make him a starting SF on every team in the league except maybe Miami, OKC, New York, Boston, Toronto, Indiana and Portland. What's bad is, he averages just 4.31RPG (pretty bad) in 31.2 minutes per game (so basically about 5 rebounds per 36 minutes), and 0.59ORPG (NOT above-average). In this period, Boston has been a ho-hum 18-14.

I'd say Jeff Green doesn't have anything extremely special in his stats... he has a 0.82 TO/A ratio (not really relevant), an impressive 1.25BPG that would put him tops on our team, he commits 2.5 fouls a game (average) and gets 0.75 steals per game (not relevant). That would rank him somewhere in the second tier of NBA small forwards, and likely not a top-5 SF in anyone's book, ever. But in addition to this, his defense has improved- it's been otherworldly at times against players like LeBron and a Synergy statistic ranks him a top-10 defender in the league (must be flawed, because that's impossible by anyone's standards). His basketball IQ has been underrated by nearly everyone, in my opinion, and he's one of the smartest players on our team for sure (his Georgetown coach once called him the smartest player he's ever coached). His arms are long and he can block drives and threes, which helps the team. His strides are long and he's a decent dunker who can get to the rack when he wants to. His corner three is developed and he's hitting it with regularity. His post moves are undeveloped, but his hook shot is to be trusted, and he's an above-average isolation player. He's tall for a small forward, which allows him to post up on smaller guys, while he's quicker than most power forwards, which allows him to attack. His handles are decent and he can be trusted to walk the ball up the floor. He's been clutch for the most part, throughout his career. He has scored above the 15-point plateau a lot, and he's scored double-digit points in 26 of our past 32 games.

So then, I took a look at the numbers he earned when shooting 11 field goals or more in a game. He's done it 18 times thus far, averaging 18.2 points per outing, in 32.8 minutes (6.77 field goals made in 13.67 attempts or 49.5%). Assuming he shoots at the same rate and percentage, if he shoots an average of 18 field goals a game (thus 324 field goals in these 18 games), he would score 23.97 points per game, in somewhere around 39 minutes. That's pretty close to 25 points and totally achievable, at his current scoring rate. Add in the fact that he's only 26 and just entering his prime, while still recovering from heart surgery. It is not out of the question at all, for him to reach such a scoring pace particularly on a team that is composed thus far of Rondo, Bradley, Lee, Bass, Terry, Sullinger, Melo. Of course, this is an inexact science, and obviously there are flaws like using a small sample size (18 games), teams game-planning for him, his potential improvement, how well Rondo and the team play, how much he actually shoots, whether there will be a new coach, who will be around him etc. But in the end, Green is a growing young man still recovering from a severe injury, and he's shown brilliance in spurts. He might never average 25ppg, he might average 26ppg, he might have another injury. He's stepping up right now as we prep for the playoffs, and it would not surprise me if he had a 30+ point game once in the playoffs. He's working hard, and that's all you can really ask out of a guy like Jeff. I love watching him play, and he's a pretty good fit for our team. He'll be an important piece in our future, either as a trade piece or a player. Go Jeff and go Celtics!
Jeff Green - Top 5 SF

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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #398 on: March 31, 2013, 12:24:57 PM »

Offline Josh88

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I would say something that to my knowledge no player has ever done in the history of the NBA is not "totally achievable" and is rather out of the question.

He's a solid player and scorer, and I think a best case scenario for him is around 18 ppg. He's still has a ways to go justify $9 million per season though, and I would be very happy if he turns out to be consistently worth that price. He's never going to be a bargain or an elite scorer.

Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #399 on: March 31, 2013, 12:41:35 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Jeff Green will NEVER average 25 points per game for an entire season. It won't happen. He's not that good.

Jeff Green in 387 career regular season games has scored more than 25 points in a game a whole 16 times(give or take). Are we to suddenly believe that a 6 year vet is suddenly going to go from scoring more than 25 points in a game 4% of the time to averaging 25PPG for a whole season?

Let's get real.

Jeff is having a good stretch. He has had good individual stretches before, but never the type of production to think he could be a 25 PPG performer. He's just not that good of a shooter or pure scorer to be able to do that. You have to be getting to the free throw line 8-10 times a game to average 25 PPG. Jeff doesn't have that in him.

He's probably playing his maximum best at about 18-19 PPG with 4 RPG and 3 APG. But expect him to put in about 36-38 MPG to do that.

And here's the other thing. Is he a numbers guy or team guy? Is he someone who will most likely only maximize his numbers on a bad or very mediocre team and tend to fall to the background on good to great teams? I think this is still very much in question.

  His per36 numbers over the last 2 months are 18/5/3. I don't think 20 a game is out of the question although 25 a game would be very unlikely.

Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #400 on: March 31, 2013, 01:01:43 PM »

Offline LB3533

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Jeff Green will not score 25 ppg during a season because he will not get the FGA's required to get to 25ppg.

Jeff would need to shoot 18-20 times per game, shoot 44-45% overall, and 38-40% from 3 while getting the line 8-9 times per game.

I feel if Jeff continues to go to the rim and be effective from 3 point land he'll score 20ppg with ease, but he will not get to the 25ppg because the team doesn't design the offense to go through 1 guy.


Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #401 on: March 31, 2013, 01:16:17 PM »

Offline connor

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Well, I'll take from our extremely small sample size to try to make a point. In his first start without KG, against one of the worst teams in the league, Jeff shot 11/14, an uncommon stat line, for 31 points. In his second start, he scored just 14 points in a total blowout to the Bobcats, when he shot just 4-for-11. His third start was yet again against Charlotte, but this time it was a blowout for US; he scored just 10 points (5-9, 0-1 from three) while snagging five boards and giving four assists. He started again the next game where he exploded for 43 points in our loss to Miami, where he basically just made all his layups. He played off the bench for two games until KG got injured, so he came in in the Memphis game, playing a whopping 45 minutes... shooting 4-for-10 and 1-for-4 from three point land, with just 12 points (5 rebounds, 4 assists). The next game against the Knicks, he built off his performance with his first double-double of the season (19/10) albeit in a losing effort. He had 6 assists. The next game, he scored 21 against Cleveland, but despite shooting just 6-for-17 until the final shot, the team went to him for his second game winner of the year. (I suppose clutch shooters are those who can score when their team needs them most, whether they're shooting 0-10 or 10-10) Last game against Atlanta, our team really put trust into him as he took 20 field goals (second only to the Miami game with 21 FGAs)... despite not getting the calls he probably should have gotten, he shot an impressive 11-20, along with three 3-pointers for a total of 27 points.

For argument's sake, I'd like to only take into consideration his games thus far in the second half of the season. Throughout his career, he has outplayed his first-half stats in the second-half for each season, for whatever reason. In addition, he was returning from his heart surgery, definitely complicating his return. Finally, like most players on this team, he was having trouble adjusting while "consistently being inconsistent." So, I'll start by looking at his second-half stats (anything from game 42 onwards).

His points-per-FG average is 1.38 (definitely above average). He's averaging 40.7% on his three point attempts (definitely above average), thus his points-per-3PA is 1.22 (decent). His two-point field goal percentage is a pretty average 33.9% (comparing among starting small-forwards) and he's shooting an above career-average 84.4% from the charity stripe. All-in-all, these are at- or above-average stats for any small forward, and would make him a starting SF on every team in the league except maybe Miami, OKC, New York, Boston, Toronto, Indiana and Portland. What's bad is, he averages just 4.31RPG (pretty bad) in 31.2 minutes per game (so basically about 5 rebounds per 36 minutes), and 0.59ORPG (NOT above-average). In this period, Boston has been a ho-hum 18-14.

I'd say Jeff Green doesn't have anything extremely special in his stats... he has a 0.82 TO/A ratio (not really relevant), an impressive 1.25BPG that would put him tops on our team, he commits 2.5 fouls a game (average) and gets 0.75 steals per game (not relevant). That would rank him somewhere in the second tier of NBA small forwards, and likely not a top-5 SF in anyone's book, ever. But in addition to this, his defense has improved- it's been otherworldly at times against players like LeBron and a Synergy statistic ranks him a top-10 defender in the league (must be flawed, because that's impossible by anyone's standards). His basketball IQ has been underrated by nearly everyone, in my opinion, and he's one of the smartest players on our team for sure (his Georgetown coach once called him the smartest player he's ever coached). His arms are long and he can block drives and threes, which helps the team. His strides are long and he's a decent dunker who can get to the rack when he wants to. His corner three is developed and he's hitting it with regularity. His post moves are undeveloped, but his hook shot is to be trusted, and he's an above-average isolation player. He's tall for a small forward, which allows him to post up on smaller guys, while he's quicker than most power forwards, which allows him to attack. His handles are decent and he can be trusted to walk the ball up the floor. He's been clutch for the most part, throughout his career. He has scored above the 15-point plateau a lot, and he's scored double-digit points in 26 of our past 32 games.

So then, I took a look at the numbers he earned when shooting 11 field goals or more in a game. He's done it 18 times thus far, averaging 18.2 points per outing, in 32.8 minutes (6.77 field goals made in 13.67 attempts or 49.5%). Assuming he shoots at the same rate and percentage, if he shoots an average of 18 field goals a game (thus 324 field goals in these 18 games), he would score 23.97 points per game, in somewhere around 39 minutes. That's pretty close to 25 points and totally achievable, at his current scoring rate. Add in the fact that he's only 26 and just entering his prime, while still recovering from heart surgery. It is not out of the question at all, for him to reach such a scoring pace particularly on a team that is composed thus far of Rondo, Bradley, Lee, Bass, Terry, Sullinger, Melo. Of course, this is an inexact science, and obviously there are flaws like using a small sample size (18 games), teams game-planning for him, his potential improvement, how well Rondo and the team play, how much he actually shoots, whether there will be a new coach, who will be around him etc. But in the end, Green is a growing young man still recovering from a severe injury, and he's shown brilliance in spurts. He might never average 25ppg, he might average 26ppg, he might have another injury. He's stepping up right now as we prep for the playoffs, and it would not surprise me if he had a 30+ point game once in the playoffs. He's working hard, and that's all you can really ask out of a guy like Jeff. I love watching him play, and he's a pretty good fit for our team. He'll be an important piece in our future, either as a trade piece or a player. Go Jeff and go Celtics!
All of these assumptions are based off of a way too small sample size to actually infer anything going forward, especially given that Green has never averaged anything like those numbers in similar minutes in the past, is coming off of heart surgery, has been consistently inconsistent in the past and had much poorer first half numbers. And the assumptions you have to make in order to project his potential scoring averages are too great to actually make any of the results credible.

Is it possible? Sure. Its also possible that he scores 30 a game, grows another 3 inches and becomes the center we need, shoots 20% from the field for the rest of the career, switches to baseball and bats .425 leading the Chicago Cubs to their first world series in 104 years.

Look we get it, you are all about Jeff Green and think he can pretty much do anything he wants, and I truly hope that he develops into the player that you want him to be (every Celtics fan would love that), but until he settles into a consistent pattern of play there is no way for you to project anything for him.

I commend you for going to such great lengths to break down his stats and to try to project his future potential, but it is quite literally impossible given the up and down nature of his play.

I would be happy if he could continue his per 36 over the last 2 months and work on getting a better pull-up/pick and pop mid-range game to make him really dangerous from all parts of the court (maybe some of PP's game rubs off on him).

Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #402 on: March 31, 2013, 02:47:12 PM »

Offline tenn_smoothie

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He plays his way and that's it. That means some days he feels aggressive and other days he doesn't feel aggressive and will do virtually nothing on the court and will completely disappear from the game and the box score. He's been doing this since Georgetown. He isn't going to change.

If he was signed @ 4 years for $14 M, I would be happy with his role and what he gives the team. But his salary is ridiculous and so measuring what he brings versus what he gets paid fosters some hostility in fans.

what also fosters hostility in fans is that Danny gave up our starting championship center (who we are STILL trying to replace) and that we, for some completely irrational reason, gave away a probable championship in the process - all in the name of trying to become the Miami Heat when the biggest advantage we had on them was our size and physical play, which is still their Achilles Heel (see Chicago game this week).

sorry - just like Game 7 in 2010, I will never get over giving away that title in 2011 when Danny decided to remake a super-motivated championship team in the image of the in-vogue small ball Miami Heat. As Harry Callahan once said, "That's a hell of a price to pay for being stylish."

wasn't it Red who said that he didn't adjust to the other team, he made the other team adjust to him - of course, Danny is still trying to prove that he is smarter than Red.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2013, 02:54:05 PM by tenn_smoothie »
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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #403 on: March 31, 2013, 03:39:27 PM »

Offline Edgar

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If hes taking 18 to 20 shots a game.. we are in trouble, unless PP is retired and we have another superstar getting 25-30 sag. not called rajon rondo who will be passing 15 asssits a game.
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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #404 on: March 31, 2013, 03:52:28 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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what also fosters hostility in fans is that Danny gave up our starting championship center (who we are STILL trying to replace) and that we, for some completely irrational reason, gave away a probable championship in the process
This is a gross overstatement.
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