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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #135 on: January 23, 2013, 02:45:36 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

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It's far past.
He's stuck behind Durant and Pierce.

He's nearing his prime and certainly hasn't regressed.



He wasn't behind Durant.  He was next to him playing 37 minutes a game. 


And no, he has not regressed.  He is the same player he was since his 2nd season.

He was forced to unnaturally play PF after his second year.
Jeff Green - Top 5 SF

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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #136 on: January 23, 2013, 02:46:20 PM »

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It's far past.
He's stuck behind Durant and Pierce.

He's nearing his prime and certainly hasn't regressed.



He wasn't behind Durant.  He was next to him playing 37 minutes a game. 


And no, he has not regressed.  He is the same player he was since his 2nd season.

He was forced to unnaturally play PF after his second year.


And his output didn't change for one minute. 


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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #137 on: January 23, 2013, 02:47:49 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

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It's far past.
He's stuck behind Durant and Pierce.

He's nearing his prime and certainly hasn't regressed.



He wasn't behind Durant.  He was next to him playing 37 minutes a game. 


And no, he has not regressed.  He is the same player he was since his 2nd season.

He was forced to unnaturally play PF after his second year.


And his output didn't change for one minute.

So imagine where he would be if he played his natural SF.
Jeff Green - Top 5 SF

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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #138 on: January 23, 2013, 02:48:16 PM »

Offline ScottHow

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Paul George, a lock for this year's All-Star game... Is in his third year.
In his second year, his stats weren't even close to the stats of Jeff's second year.

Jeff Green has had much more experience and is nearing his prime.

A the least, he's a sure fire All-Star.


So again, Green reached his level of play in his second season and George surpassed that level by his third season.

George only surpassed it because Granger is injured.

Green is stuck behind Pierce and was stuck behind Durant.


George was starting last year.  He showed marked improvement going into his second season.  He has shown a similar improvement going onto his third season.  I wouldn't be shocked if we saw more improvement going into his 4th season.

Green showed marked improvement going into his second season... And became a 16 point scorer.
He did in his third season too, until the Thunder realized Durant was too good. So, now Green is stuck between his second- and third-season abilities at age 26. And until Pierce leaves, that's where he will stay.


No.


He was a guy that played 37 minutes a game for them.

Took around 13 shots.

Would hit around 6 of them.

And grab 6 rebounds.


There isn't a huge swing in any of those seasons.  And when you take his numbers from the Celtics and compared them per minute, use see that he has the exact same rates. 



Green is the player that he is.  And he has been this player now for 6 years now.

Pierce gets around six rebounds and shoots six and a half out off fifteen, getting 19 points. Jeff Green can do that too.


Difference is, Pierce actually would do that because he was aggressive and knew how to get on the FT line. 


In the 6 season Green has played, he has not.  I can't think of any swing players that suddenly became big time get to the line players after 6 seasons of heavy minutes not getting to the line.

He could score 16 points in his second year in the league!

Ricky Davis avg 20 ppg at 23!

Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #139 on: January 23, 2013, 02:49:54 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

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Paul George, a lock for this year's All-Star game... Is in his third year.
In his second year, his stats weren't even close to the stats of Jeff's second year.

Jeff Green has had much more experience and is nearing his prime.

A the least, he's a sure fire All-Star.


So again, Green reached his level of play in his second season and George surpassed that level by his third season.

George only surpassed it because Granger is injured.

Green is stuck behind Pierce and was stuck behind Durant.


George was starting last year.  He showed marked improvement going into his second season.  He has shown a similar improvement going onto his third season.  I wouldn't be shocked if we saw more improvement going into his 4th season.

Green showed marked improvement going into his second season... And became a 16 point scorer.
He did in his third season too, until the Thunder realized Durant was too good. So, now Green is stuck between his second- and third-season abilities at age 26. And until Pierce leaves, that's where he will stay.


No.


He was a guy that played 37 minutes a game for them.

Took around 13 shots.

Would hit around 6 of them.

And grab 6 rebounds.


There isn't a huge swing in any of those seasons.  And when you take his numbers from the Celtics and compared them per minute, use see that he has the exact same rates. 



Green is the player that he is.  And he has been this player now for 6 years now.

Pierce gets around six rebounds and shoots six and a half out off fifteen, getting 19 points. Jeff Green can do that too.


Difference is, Pierce actually would do that because he was aggressive and knew how to get on the FT line. 


In the 6 season Green has played, he has not.  I can't think of any swing players that suddenly became big time get to the line players after 6 seasons of heavy minutes not getting to the line.

He could score 16 points in his second year in the league!

Ricky Davis avg 20 ppg at 23!

Good for Ricky Davis!
Jeff Green - Top 5 SF

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"I've always said J. Green is going to be one of the best players to ever play this game"

Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #140 on: January 23, 2013, 02:56:02 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

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Jeff Green's numbers in year 2 were amazing. How could he not be great as a starter?!
Jeff Green - Top 5 SF

[Kevin Garnett]
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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #141 on: January 23, 2013, 03:32:53 PM »

Offline ssspence

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Can someone show one piece of actual evidence that Green has improved over the years?  Everything I see looks like a consistent play level year after year.
Even if he remains a 15 ppg / 6 rpg per 35 minutes player for the duration of his contract... what exactly were you hoping to get for a contract that averages 9 million a year?

Now, this I agree with.  He basically is what you can expect from $9 million a year these days.  I just think we all wanted a bargain, rather than a market value player.

I'd like to see him do two things:

1) Put two consecutive halves of high energy next to each other in a single game.... just once... instead of this 10 minutes of good, then 10 minutes of hazy, looks-like-i-got-the-muchies-at-halftime, cement shoes, completely awful stuff. Which leads me to point two;

2) Post 20 points in a game... just once... since i thought the story is he was a scorer, a match-up nightmare at the 3, and so on.

I think $9mil should buy that.

Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #142 on: January 23, 2013, 03:52:19 PM »

Offline Jon Niednagel

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He's the 4th best player on our team, but he's backing up the captain.  He doesn't deserve the negativity he's going to get later in this thread.  I think he'll definitely be a top 10 SF in this league.  Not sure about top 5, though.  I think he can peak out as a fringe allstar... on the right (lottery) team he can average close to 20 points... but probably will never make an allstar appearance.  Good solid starter-caliber player and nothing more.

This is the way I see it too.
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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #143 on: January 23, 2013, 05:52:14 PM »

Offline LB3533

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The team's goal and best interest is not for Jeff Green to be an All-star.

Jeff Green's role is to be as productive as he can be when Pierce is resting.

Jeff Green's primary use is to preserve Paul Pierce's all-star status...but so far, Doc hasn't managed Paul's minutes as well as he could have, especially when Pierce is in a shooting slump.

The great thing about Paul is he can affect the game in so many different ways when he is not shooting well.

We run a different offense than OKC, so I am not expecting Jeff Green to drop Durant type numbers on worse efficiency.

But if Green does end up starting along Rondo, how can you not expect Jeff Green to drop at least 20 and 6 rebounds a night?

1.) Rondo is not a ball hogging chucker liker R. Westbrook.

2.) Jeff Green will be a primary scoring option or at worst a 2ndary option.

3.) We will probably be a lottery team at the start and most bad teams have a lot of players who put up "empty stats".

Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #144 on: January 23, 2013, 06:03:55 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Tell me this doesn't have the potential to make Jeff Green one of the better post-up players in the league.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5717fB_csMQ

I've been disappointed by Green's results in the post.  When he first came over from OKC, it seemed like he had some decent ability to score down low.  However, his results there have sucked.  27.5% shooting?  Come on.

'Not sure where you are getting the 27.5% number.  I guess it corresponds to his shooting from 'in close'?

From hoopdata.com, Green's shot location percentages:

Jeff Green, by shot location:
At Rim:   63.4%
3-9 ft:   28.9%
10-15 ft: 31.6%
16-23 ft: 35.0%
3PT:      32.5%

Not impressive.   One should compare to Pierce, though, to see the effects of the system:

Paul Pierce, by shot location:
At Rim:   64.8%
3-9 ft:   14.7%
10-15 ft: 41.5%
16-23 ft: 44.0%
3PT:      36.4%

So .... Pierce, who is shooting actually very well everywhere else, is actually doing even _worse_ than Green when 'in close' between 3-9 feet.    That one shot distance is the biggest drag on Pierce' overall FG%.

This gets to something I've commented on in other threads on Pierce:  As Chris points out, our team currently has HORRIBLE SPACING.

We are 3rd worst in the NBA in 3PT attempts.  There is no 'threat' from outside to spread defenses.  We also have no consistent low-post offensive big man to help control defenders along the baseline, take lobs to the hoop or pick up trash and put it back.   Sully does some of that, but only for 20 minutes or so because of foul trouble.

Teams are basically clogging the paint - watch and you see typically at least 3 guys with a foot in it - and jumping all over Pierce (and probably Green, when he's in PP's role) with doubles and triples every time they get close to the paint.

This doesn't explain why Green's shooting has been sub-par elsewhere.  Those numbers from 10ft out to the 3PT line are not good.  However, while well below his career averages from those ranges, they at least are not the disaster that the 3-9 ft range is. 

I think that the outer range sub-performance (10ft-3PT) is likely due to simply low shot volume.   His attempts per game numbers are, of course, extremely down from prior years in his career.  Green comes into a game, maybe takes one or two shots and then sits.  That's not good for anybody's shooting percentages.  It probably has less of an effect on 'At Rim' and short range shots, of course.

In the data at hoopdata.com, Green has only a grand total of just 77 3PT shots this year.  I know for a fact that at least 4 off the top of my head were last-second-end-of-period hail marys.  Take just those 4 attempts off and his 3PT% magically climbs to 34.2%, which suddenly looks more palatable(league avg is 33.7).  This isn't to show anything other than the effect of small number statistics.

I don't want to offer a 'conclusive' judgement on the thesis of this thread.  I don't think we know enough yet to say anything definitive about where Jeff Green's game might be in 2 years.  All the data we have is tainted with one caveat or another (out of position here, small minutes there, heart surgery, etc., etc.).

I do think that Green's effectiveness is dramatically affected by his utilization and role.  By the way the players around him use him.

If you look at the performance of our main (by minutes-played) 5-man units with Green in them and look at the effect of simply swapping Rondo or Terry out and replace with Barbosa at PG - boom - the performance of the unit drops like a rock.   Similarly, putting Green at PF ==  not so great.

This is probably explained with two things many of us have pointed out:

a) Rondo & Terry are simply better at PG than Barbosa and will actually run plays that use the other guys on the floor instead of just barreling to the rim, ala 'the Blur'.

b) Green should not be at PF.

These effects are not subtle.  Even though the total minutes are not huge, the following are pretty illustrative of these effects.  Here are the top 8 (by minutes) lineups that Green has played in:
UnitminOrtgDrtgNet
JT+CL+JG+JS+KG7512793+34
LB+CL+JG+JS+KG72109105+4
RR+JT+PP+JG+KG589695+1
RR+JT+JG+BB+CW30125109+16
RR+CL+JG+JS+KG2412769+58
LB+CL+JG+JS+CW239198-7
JT+CL+JG+BB+JS2310775+32


The ratings are in points-per-100 possessions.

This tells me a little bit why Doc has not used Barbosa all that much at PG any more.  Up until recently though, the second combination up there (with Barbosa at PG) was Green's most used lineup.  Thus it was probably dragging down Green's overall effectiveness.   Green (or at least his team) is clearly more effective when used with Rondo or Terry at Point and himself in the SF role.
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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #145 on: January 23, 2013, 06:13:34 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

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This is still what I think would be the best possible lineup for Green:

Rondo (good passer)
Lee (not ball hog)
Green (focal point)
Sullinger (rebounding/not ball hog)
Garnett (spread floor, can pass)

That would make Green as productive as possible... this impossible starting lineup would get Green 20/6/4 for sure...

The problem is the ball-hogs we have in: Barbosa, Pierce, Terry, Bass, Bradley.
Jeff Green - Top 5 SF

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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #146 on: January 23, 2013, 06:30:43 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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PER is imperfect. It essentially ignores defense, and does not account that a solid impact over 30 minutes is better than the same impact over 10 minutes. However, it can show a pretty good idea of where a player is relative to their peers, and if a player's PER is lower, there's usually a very good reason, such as: inefficient scoring (low percentage, low drawing free throws, ineffective at 3s) or an ability to be on the court without picking up assists, rebounds, etc.

With that in mind, here are players listed as SF with better PERs than Green RIGHT NOW. So, who on that list will decrease below Green's current level OR who will Green pass to get to Top 5??  BTW, Greens max PER is 13.99 (year 2); a mythical perfectly average production player is 15.00.

Also, people will argue about whether certain players are truly SFs, trying to eliminate competition based on a technicality. Here are some SGs/PFs not on the list with better PERs than Green, so I think this method of arguing is a wash. (like asking "who's the best pure PG" then explaining why the best PGs aren't pure): Ginobili, JR Smith, Joe Johnson, Dudley, Gerald Henderson, Hayward, Carter, Derozen, Iguodala, Korver, Sefolosha.  PFs: Villanueva, Derrick Williams, Darrell Arthur, Daye, Cunningham.

RK   PLAYER                     PER
1   LeBron James, MIA   30.3
2   Kevin Durant, OKC   29.15
3   Carmelo Anthony, NY   25.29
4   Paul Pierce, BOS   19.09
5   Kenneth Faried, DEN   19.02
6   Andrei Kirilenko, MIN   18.63
7   Nicolas Batum, POR   17.74
8   Matt Barnes, LAC   17.69
9   Thaddeus Young, PHI   17.51
10   Paul George, IND   17.44
RK   PLAYER   PER
11   Josh Smith, ATL   17.11
12   Jordan Hamilton, DEN   16.91
13   Earl Clark, LAL   16.74
14   Danilo Gallinari, DEN   16.69
15   Ersan Ilyasova, MIL   16.53
16   DeMarre Carroll, UTAH   16.45
17   Shawn Marion, DAL   16.21
18   Chris Copeland, NY   16.11
19   Mike Dunleavy, MIL   15.95
20   Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA   15.73
RK   PLAYER   PER
21   Luol Deng, CHI   15.22
22   Corey Brewer, DEN   15.17
23   Rudy Gay, MEM   14.64
24   Jimmy Butler, CHI   14.63
25   Chandler Parsons, HOU   14.54
26   Kawhi Leonard, SA   14.35
27   Metta World Peace, LAL   14.19
28   Dorell Wright, PHI   14.12
29   Al-Farouq Aminu, NO   14.03
30   Tobias Harris, MIL   13.88
RK   PLAYER   PER
31   Gerald Wallace, BKN   13.72
32   Evan Turner, PHI   13.38
33   Tayshaun Prince, DET   13.31
34   Martell Webster, WSH   13.23
35   Carlos Delfino, HOU   13.15
36   John Salmons, SAC   12.47
37   Mike Miller, MIA   12.3
38   Moe Harkless, ORL   12.27
39   Omri Casspi, CLE   12.21
40   Trevor Ariza, WSH   12.15
RK   PLAYER   PER
41   Francisco Garcia, SAC   12.04

JEFF GREEN 11.93

42   Caron Butler, LAC   11.75
43   C.J. Miles, CLE   11.54
44   Harrison Barnes, GS   11.53
45   Jae Crowder, DAL   11.44
46   Steve Novak, NY   11.21
47   Alonzo Gee, CLE   11.01
48   Kyle Singler, DET   10.52
49   Ronnie Brewer, NY   10.47
50   Quincy Pondexter, MEM   10.38



So, in 2 years, who does he pass without anyone passing him (younger guys/current highschool or college guys)??

Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #147 on: January 23, 2013, 06:43:44 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

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PER is imperfect. It essentially ignores defense, and does not account that a solid impact over 30 minutes is better than the same impact over 10 minutes. However, it can show a pretty good idea of where a player is relative to their peers, and if a player's PER is lower, there's usually a very good reason, such as: inefficient scoring (low percentage, low drawing free throws, ineffective at 3s) or an ability to be on the court without picking up assists, rebounds, etc.

With that in mind, here are players listed as SF with better PERs than Green RIGHT NOW. So, who on that list will decrease below Green's current level OR who will Green pass to get to Top 5??  BTW, Greens max PER is 13.99 (year 2); a mythical perfectly average production player is 15.00.

Also, people will argue about whether certain players are truly SFs, trying to eliminate competition based on a technicality. Here are some SGs/PFs not on the list with better PERs than Green, so I think this method of arguing is a wash. (like asking "who's the best pure PG" then explaining why the best PGs aren't pure): Ginobili, JR Smith, Joe Johnson, Dudley, Gerald Henderson, Hayward, Carter, Derozen, Iguodala, Korver, Sefolosha.  PFs: Villanueva, Derrick Williams, Darrell Arthur, Daye, Cunningham.

RK   PLAYER                     PER
1   LeBron James, MIA   30.3
2   Kevin Durant, OKC   29.15
3   Carmelo Anthony, NY   25.29
4   Paul Pierce, BOS   19.09
5   Kenneth Faried, DEN   19.02
6   Andrei Kirilenko, MIN   18.63
7   Nicolas Batum, POR   17.74
8   Matt Barnes, LAC   17.69
9   Thaddeus Young, PHI   17.51
10   Paul George, IND   17.44
RK   PLAYER   PER
11   Josh Smith, ATL   17.11
12   Jordan Hamilton, DEN   16.91
13   Earl Clark, LAL   16.74
14   Danilo Gallinari, DEN   16.69
15   Ersan Ilyasova, MIL   16.53
16   DeMarre Carroll, UTAH   16.45
17   Shawn Marion, DAL   16.21
18   Chris Copeland, NY   16.11
19   Mike Dunleavy, MIL   15.95
20   Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA   15.73
RK   PLAYER   PER
21   Luol Deng, CHI   15.22
22   Corey Brewer, DEN   15.17
23   Rudy Gay, MEM   14.64
24   Jimmy Butler, CHI   14.63
25   Chandler Parsons, HOU   14.54
26   Kawhi Leonard, SA   14.35
27   Metta World Peace, LAL   14.19
28   Dorell Wright, PHI   14.12
29   Al-Farouq Aminu, NO   14.03
30   Tobias Harris, MIL   13.88
RK   PLAYER   PER
31   Gerald Wallace, BKN   13.72
32   Evan Turner, PHI   13.38
33   Tayshaun Prince, DET   13.31
34   Martell Webster, WSH   13.23
35   Carlos Delfino, HOU   13.15
36   John Salmons, SAC   12.47
37   Mike Miller, MIA   12.3
38   Moe Harkless, ORL   12.27
39   Omri Casspi, CLE   12.21
40   Trevor Ariza, WSH   12.15
RK   PLAYER   PER
41   Francisco Garcia, SAC   12.04

JEFF GREEN 11.93

42   Caron Butler, LAC   11.75
43   C.J. Miles, CLE   11.54
44   Harrison Barnes, GS   11.53
45   Jae Crowder, DAL   11.44
46   Steve Novak, NY   11.21
47   Alonzo Gee, CLE   11.01
48   Kyle Singler, DET   10.52
49   Ronnie Brewer, NY   10.47
50   Quincy Pondexter, MEM   10.38



So, in 2 years, who does he pass without anyone passing him (younger guys/current highschool or college guys)??

Everybody except for James, Durant, Melo and possibly George/Batum.

Can you show me his PER in his second/third years in the league?
Jeff Green - Top 5 SF

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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #148 on: January 23, 2013, 07:38:27 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Tell me this doesn't have the potential to make Jeff Green one of the better post-up players in the league.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5717fB_csMQ

I've been disappointed by Green's results in the post.  When he first came over from OKC, it seemed like he had some decent ability to score down low.  However, his results there have sucked.  27.5% shooting?  Come on.

'Not sure where you are getting the 27.5% number.  I guess it corresponds to his shooting from 'in close'?

Check out Jeff Green's offensive stats at mysynergysports.com.  Under post-ups, he's at 27.5%.


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Re: Jeff Green - top 5 SF in 2 years
« Reply #149 on: January 23, 2013, 07:45:27 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

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Tell me this doesn't have the potential to make Jeff Green one of the better post-up players in the league.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5717fB_csMQ

I've been disappointed by Green's results in the post.  When he first came over from OKC, it seemed like he had some decent ability to score down low.  However, his results there have sucked.  27.5% shooting?  Come on.

'Not sure where you are getting the 27.5% number.  I guess it corresponds to his shooting from 'in close'?

Check out Jeff Green's offensive stats at mysynergysports.com.  Under post-ups, he's at 27.5%.

Blame our spacing, not Green!
Jeff Green - Top 5 SF

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