Author Topic: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?  (Read 13688 times)

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Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #45 on: January 11, 2013, 05:03:42 PM »

Offline ssspence

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The reality is there were better role players available for the bi-annual or vet min.
"Available" doesn't mean that they're coming here. Matt Barnes was formerly on the Lakers, he can join the Clippers without even changing his parking space. Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, as they say.
Not only that, but Matt Barnes performance this season is an outlier.

In previous years he was a plus rebounding, minus defender, and okay shooting SF.

I was think more of Martell Webster, Ronnie Brewer and Marquis Daniels, personally. PJ Tucker and Josh Howard (yes -- i know he's injured) would have made some sense as well.

Cs also could have drafted Jeff Taylor, Draymond Green or Jae Crowder at 22.
Mike

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Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #46 on: January 11, 2013, 05:06:14 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I think it would be worth knowing more about the characteristic of the 'on' vs 'off' games before I drew any conclusions here.

For instance, in good vs bad games, which position was he playing mostly in?  SF or PF?   Who else was on the floor with him?  Who was the PG?  Was Pierce also on the floor?

If you look through the various 5-man lineups that Green has played in, there is a huge variance in performance and not all those differences are due to Green:

http://www.82games.com/1213/12BOS8.HTM#5man

Look closely at that list.  Right off the bat, his highest-minute lineup (with Barbosa, Lee, Sully & KG)  is flat.  A Net Rating of 0.  The definition of overall mediocrity.  .500 ball.   Some good play.  Some bad.

But if you swap out just Barbosa and replace him with Rondo or Terry, then suddenly it becomes one of two lineups that have been awesome:  Net Ratings of +56 and +38, respectively!!!!!    (Points per 100 possessions)

Obviously those are not large sample size, but they are big enough to illustrate the point that there are big ramifications to small changes in the lineup.  And combined, the two mentioned lineups with Rondo or Terry at PG total to 73 minutes.  Still not huge, but a decent sample (a few hundred combined offensive and defensive possessions).

I would bet that when Leandro is running the offense at PG, his tendency is to just drive the hoop.   Maybe the occasional pass, but he is first and foremost a scorer and not an offensive coordinator.   Terry and Rondo are more likely to try to actually run plays that use their teammates.

Basically, I think that as Doc can finally settle in on which lineups work best and when to use them, the efficiency and consistency of all the players, not just Green, will improve.

And finally, we should not forget that exactly one year ago today, Jeff was lying in a hospital bed with tubes and monitors attached, a bandage covering the big line of stitches in his chest.   
NBA Officiating - Corrupt?  Incompetent?  Which is worse?  Does it matter?  It sucks.

Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #47 on: January 11, 2013, 05:19:21 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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The reality is there were better role players available for the bi-annual or vet min.
"Available" doesn't mean that they're coming here. Matt Barnes was formerly on the Lakers, he can join the Clippers without even changing his parking space. Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, as they say.
Not only that, but Matt Barnes performance this season is an outlier.

In previous years he was a plus rebounding, minus defender, and okay shooting SF.

I was think more of Martell Webster, Ronnie Brewer and Marquis Daniels, personally. PJ Tucker and Josh Howard (yes -- i know he's injured) would have made some sense as well.

Cs also could have drafted Jeff Taylor, Draymond Green or Jae Crowder at 22.

Hindsight is 20/20 w/ the draft.  I would have preferred Jeff Taylor over Fab Melo @ 22, but I don't think he'd be better than Jeff Green.  He's not nearly as big as Jeff Green, which does matter.  Dray Green and Crowder have been okay but not great.

The other guys you mentioned are unremarkable and substantially less valuable players, in my mind, than Jeff Green.  Not guys I'd want the Celtics to rely on for significant minutes.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2013, 05:25:44 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #48 on: January 11, 2013, 05:24:30 PM »

Offline ssspence

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The reality is there were better role players available for the bi-annual or vet min.
"Available" doesn't mean that they're coming here. Matt Barnes was formerly on the Lakers, he can join the Clippers without even changing his parking space. Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, as they say.
Not only that, but Matt Barnes performance this season is an outlier.

In previous years he was a plus rebounding, minus defender, and okay shooting SF.

I was think more of Martell Webster, Ronnie Brewer and Marquis Daniels, personally. PJ Tucker and Josh Howard (yes -- i know he's injured) would have made some sense as well.

Cs also could have drafted Jeff Taylor, Draymond Green or Jae Crowder at 22.

Hindsight is 20/20 w/ the draft.  I would have preferred Jeff Taylor over Fab Melo @ 22, but I don't think he'd be better than Jeff.  He's not nearly as big as Jeff, which does matter.  Dray Green and Crowder have been okay but not great.

The other guys you mentioned are unremarkable and substantially less valuable players, in my mind, than Jeff Green.  Not guys I'd want the Celtics to rely on for significant minutes.

Jeff Green is an unremarkable player. And we'll be paying him $10mil... in 2016.

Both Brewer and Webster would have been nice fits behind Pierce. Substantially less valuable? It certainly doesn't appear that way. 

Whetever -- I rest my case. No need to keep picking on Green, or his contract. What's done is done, unfortunately.
Mike

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Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #49 on: January 11, 2013, 05:29:09 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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The reality is there were better role players available for the bi-annual or vet min.
"Available" doesn't mean that they're coming here. Matt Barnes was formerly on the Lakers, he can join the Clippers without even changing his parking space. Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, as they say.
Not only that, but Matt Barnes performance this season is an outlier.

In previous years he was a plus rebounding, minus defender, and okay shooting SF.

I was think more of Martell Webster, Ronnie Brewer and Marquis Daniels, personally. PJ Tucker and Josh Howard (yes -- i know he's injured) would have made some sense as well.

Cs also could have drafted Jeff Taylor, Draymond Green or Jae Crowder at 22.

Hindsight is 20/20 w/ the draft.  I would have preferred Jeff Taylor over Fab Melo @ 22, but I don't think he'd be better than Jeff.  He's not nearly as big as Jeff, which does matter.  Dray Green and Crowder have been okay but not great.

The other guys you mentioned are unremarkable and substantially less valuable players, in my mind, than Jeff Green.  Not guys I'd want the Celtics to rely on for significant minutes.

Jeff Green is an unremarkable player. And we'll be paying him $10mil... in 2016.

Both Brewer and Webster would have been nice fits behind Pierce. Substantially less valuable? It certainly doesn't appear that way.

Webster can't play defense and size-wise he's more of a SG.  He's a 3rd string bench shooter in an ideal situation.

Ronnie Brewer is a solid defender but not a super high IQ player and he's not a reliable shooter at all.  I wouldn't mind Ronnie Brewer, but he's not capable of carrying a significant load on offense the way Green can at times.  Brewer is just not a threat to score at all except in transition.  He also doesn't create mismatches the way Green does (on either end), unless he's playing at SG.

Neither of the players you mentioned can really play PF, either, which Jeff can do for limited minutes in certain situations.  He gives you that option.

The money we pay Jeff means little to me because it's not money we could have spent on anybody else this past off-season, and in a year or two Pierce and Garnett will be gone and we won't have much money tied up in anybody of significance, and we won't be attracting any big name free agents to spend hypothetical cap space on anyway.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #50 on: January 11, 2013, 05:39:16 PM »

Offline ssspence

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The reality is there were better role players available for the bi-annual or vet min.
"Available" doesn't mean that they're coming here. Matt Barnes was formerly on the Lakers, he can join the Clippers without even changing his parking space. Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, as they say.
Not only that, but Matt Barnes performance this season is an outlier.

In previous years he was a plus rebounding, minus defender, and okay shooting SF.

I was think more of Martell Webster, Ronnie Brewer and Marquis Daniels, personally. PJ Tucker and Josh Howard (yes -- i know he's injured) would have made some sense as well.

Cs also could have drafted Jeff Taylor, Draymond Green or Jae Crowder at 22.

Hindsight is 20/20 w/ the draft.  I would have preferred Jeff Taylor over Fab Melo @ 22, but I don't think he'd be better than Jeff.  He's not nearly as big as Jeff, which does matter.  Dray Green and Crowder have been okay but not great.

The other guys you mentioned are unremarkable and substantially less valuable players, in my mind, than Jeff Green.  Not guys I'd want the Celtics to rely on for significant minutes.

Jeff Green is an unremarkable player. And we'll be paying him $10mil... in 2016.

Both Brewer and Webster would have been nice fits behind Pierce. Substantially less valuable? It certainly doesn't appear that way.

Webster can't play defense and size-wise he's more of a SG.  He's a 3rd string bench shooter in an ideal situation.

Ronnie Brewer is a solid defender but not a super high IQ player and he's not a reliable shooter at all.  I wouldn't mind Ronnie Brewer, but he's not capable of carrying a significant load on offense the way Green can at times.  Brewer is just not a threat to score at all except in transition.  He also doesn't create mismatches the way Green does (on either end), unless he's playing at SG.

Neither of the players you mentioned can really play PF, either, which Jeff can do for limited minutes in certain situations.  He gives you that option.

The money we pay Jeff means little to me because it's not money we could have spent on anybody else this past off-season, and in a year or two Pierce and Garnett will be gone and we won't have much money tied up in anybody of significance, and we won't be attracting any big name free agents to spend hypothetical cap space on anyway.

have a good weekend.
Mike

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Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #51 on: January 11, 2013, 05:54:25 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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I want to challenge the premise of this thread.

I think considering the role that Green has been asked to play (or perhaps the lackthereof), Green has done fine.

And often I get the sense that people judge Green's performance entirely on whether he reaches 14, 15, 16 or more points.  That's silly, if you ask me, because Green's deal has always been that he's pretty good at a lot of things but not elite at anything in particular.  He's not going to be a prolific scorer unless he has a good matchup in a particular game or a particular stretch of minutes.  That's just who he is, and we have to learn to accept that.  Green is NOT Paul Pierce -- i.e. a natural born scorer -- and we should not expect him to suddenly become one.

Green can score 7-8 points and still have a good game if he plays solid defense, maybe gets a block or a steal, makes some hustle plays, and generally helps keep the team stable for 18-20 minutes while Pierce is not playing. 

Green can be living up to REASONABLE expectations even if he's only averaging 10-12 points per game in 20-25 minutes.

What part of the criteria I used -- 10 points on a meager 40% shooting -- was unfair, when judging Green's offensive output?

Look at the games cited in this thread as bad games:

12/18:  3 points on 17% shooting
12/19:  3 points on 25% shooting
12/27:  8 points on 33% shooting
12/29:  6 points on 18% shooting
12/30:  16 points on 29% shooting (outlier)
1/4:    2 points on 25% shooting
1/5:    3 points on 25% shooting

Which of those games are you particularly impressed by?  He didn't shoot over 33% in a single one of those contests.  No matter how you slice it, that's poor scoring output.


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Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #52 on: January 11, 2013, 06:10:52 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I want to challenge the premise of this thread.

I think considering the role that Green has been asked to play (or perhaps the lackthereof), Green has done fine.

And often I get the sense that people judge Green's performance entirely on whether he reaches 14, 15, 16 or more points.  That's silly, if you ask me, because Green's deal has always been that he's pretty good at a lot of things but not elite at anything in particular.  He's not going to be a prolific scorer unless he has a good matchup in a particular game or a particular stretch of minutes.  That's just who he is, and we have to learn to accept that.  Green is NOT Paul Pierce -- i.e. a natural born scorer -- and we should not expect him to suddenly become one.

Green can score 7-8 points and still have a good game if he plays solid defense, maybe gets a block or a steal, makes some hustle plays, and generally helps keep the team stable for 18-20 minutes while Pierce is not playing. 

Green can be living up to REASONABLE expectations even if he's only averaging 10-12 points per game in 20-25 minutes.

What part of the criteria I used -- 10 points on a meager 40% shooting -- was unfair, when judging Green's offensive output?

Look at the games cited in this thread as bad games:

12/18:  3 points on 17% shooting
12/19:  3 points on 25% shooting
12/27:  8 points on 33% shooting
12/29:  6 points on 18% shooting
12/30:  16 points on 29% shooting (outlier)
1/4:    2 points on 25% shooting
1/5:    3 points on 25% shooting

Which of those games are you particularly impressed by?  He didn't shoot over 33% in a single one of those contests.  No matter how you slice it, that's poor scoring output.

The poor shooting performances I can agree are just that, poor -- when he's taken a lot of shots, that is.


What I'm saying is that I think sometimes people think Green had a bad game, or isn't "playing well lately" if he isn't scoring 15-20 points every night.  I just think that's silly. 

If you were expecting Green to be a 6'9'' Jamal Crawford I don't know what to tell you.  That's just not him.

I'm not arguing that Green hasn't had bad games this season.  Obviously he has.  But every player has bad games.  For bench players, it's even more difficult to maintain consistency because  they have a smaller role and so a few shots falling or not can be the difference between a good or a bad night.  That's especially true for Green because he hasn't been given a consistent role to play on this team for much of the season.  Only the really great bench scorers put up big numbers night in and night out.  And those guys are usually a featured part of their team's offense.

It seems to me that Green is gradually improved over the course of the season and lately, even when he doesn't score a bunch, or misses a fair amount of shots, he still makes an overall positive impact and certainly doesn't hurt the team.


Overall, Jeff is averaging close to double digit points in less than 30 minutes a night, and his shooting percentages aren't great, but they aren't awful, either.  And they're trending upward.  I just think this notion that there are all these much better backup SFs out there who can give you 20-30 quality minutes every night and not be a liability is silly.  I don't buy it.

Jeff Green is a solid player.  Nothing more, nothing less.  He has games where he's really good (like on Wednesday), and he has other games where he's a non-factor.  Yes, he's overpaid.  But that doesn't have anything to do with his on-court value.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2013, 06:17:55 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #53 on: January 11, 2013, 06:11:53 PM »

Offline ScottHow

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I want to challenge the premise of this thread.

I think considering the role that Green has been asked to play (or perhaps the lackthereof), Green has done fine.

And often I get the sense that people judge Green's performance entirely on whether he reaches 14, 15, 16 or more points.  That's silly, if you ask me, because Green's deal has always been that he's pretty good at a lot of things but not elite at anything in particular.  He's not going to be a prolific scorer unless he has a good matchup in a particular game or a particular stretch of minutes.  That's just who he is, and we have to learn to accept that.  Green is NOT Paul Pierce -- i.e. a natural born scorer -- and we should not expect him to suddenly become one.

Green can score 7-8 points and still have a good game if he plays solid defense, maybe gets a block or a steal, makes some hustle plays, and generally helps keep the team stable for 18-20 minutes while Pierce is not playing. 

Green can be living up to REASONABLE expectations even if he's only averaging 10-12 points per game in 20-25 minutes.

What part of the criteria I used -- 10 points on a meager 40% shooting -- was unfair, when judging Green's offensive output?

Look at the games cited in this thread as bad games:

12/18:  3 points on 17% shooting
12/19:  3 points on 25% shooting
12/27:  8 points on 33% shooting
12/29:  6 points on 18% shooting
12/30:  16 points on 29% shooting (outlier)
1/4:    2 points on 25% shooting
1/5:    3 points on 25% shooting

Which of those games are you particularly impressed by?  He didn't shoot over 33% in a single one of those contests.  No matter how you slice it, that's poor scoring output.

That's def awful scoring numbers. Green's problem is he doesn't do enough of the other things or little things to impact the game in other areas.

Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #54 on: January 11, 2013, 06:23:30 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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What part of the criteria I used -- 10 points on a meager 40% shooting -- was unfair, when judging Green's offensive output?

. . .

Which of those games are you particularly impressed by?  He didn't shoot over 33% in a single one of those contests.  No matter how you slice it, that's poor scoring output.

I guess what it comes down to is that Jeff Green doesn't have to "particularly impress" me for me to feel okay about his production, given the role he's been asked to play on the team.

The Celtics absolutely needed a competent SF playing behind Paul Pierce.  The Mickael Pietrus's and Sasha Pavlovic's of the world were not going to cut it if the team wanted to have a chance to deal with teams with big, athletic, fast, scoring wings like LeBron, Melo, Durant, Gay, etc.  Green is much better than the majority of the options the Celtics had given their cap situation.

So yeah, I'm fine with 10 pts in 25 minutes on 42 / 33 / 80 shooting, considering he also has the ability to occasionally give us a big performance that can swing a game when Pierce is off.
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Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #55 on: January 11, 2013, 06:41:36 PM »

Offline celtics2

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Not a tough question. He hasn't had enough playing time. Will likely take a full season. He missed a lot of time. He may never achieve the level many feel he's capable of.

Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #56 on: January 11, 2013, 06:48:29 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Not a tough question. He hasn't had enough playing time. Will likely take a full season. He missed a lot of time. He may never achieve the level many feel he's capable of.

2010: 14.7 points / 36 minutes
2011 (overall): 14.8 points / 36 minutes
2011 (OKC): 14.8 points / 36 minutes
2011 (BOS): 14.9 points / 36 minutes
2013: 15.0 points / 36 minutes

Strangely enough (in a thread about Green's inconsistency), Green has been remarkably consistent in terms of his per-minute scoring the last three seasons.  I'm not sure that more minutes is suddenly going to make him into a better scorer.


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Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #57 on: January 11, 2013, 06:58:03 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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I want to challenge the premise of this thread.

I think considering the role that Green has been asked to play (or perhaps the lackthereof), Green has done fine.

And often I get the sense that people judge Green's performance entirely on whether he reaches 14, 15, 16 or more points.  That's silly, if you ask me, because Green's deal has always been that he's pretty good at a lot of things but not elite at anything in particular.  He's not going to be a prolific scorer unless he has a good matchup in a particular game or a particular stretch of minutes.  That's just who he is, and we have to learn to accept that.  Green is NOT Paul Pierce -- i.e. a natural born scorer -- and we should not expect him to suddenly become one.

Green can score 7-8 points and still have a good game if he plays solid defense, maybe gets a block or a steal, makes some hustle plays, and generally helps keep the team stable for 18-20 minutes while Pierce is not playing. 

Green can be living up to REASONABLE expectations even if he's only averaging 10-12 points per game in 20-25 minutes.

What part of the criteria I used -- 10 points on a meager 40% shooting -- was unfair, when judging Green's offensive output?

Look at the games cited in this thread as bad games:

12/18:  3 points on 17% shooting
12/19:  3 points on 25% shooting
12/27:  8 points on 33% shooting
12/29:  6 points on 18% shooting
12/30:  16 points on 29% shooting (outlier)
1/4:    2 points on 25% shooting
1/5:    3 points on 25% shooting

Which of those games are you particularly impressed by?  He didn't shoot over 33% in a single one of those contests.  No matter how you slice it, that's poor scoring output.

That's def awful scoring numbers. Green's problem is he doesn't do enough of the other things or little things to impact the game in other areas.

Question - how would Jason Terry, Courtney Lee, Brandon Bass, Jared Sullinger, Rajon Rondo or Paul Pierce look if we grabbed their 7 worst shooting games of the season and post them up here?  My bet is not much better, in some cases worse (especially Lee).

Green lately has played very solid defense, he's rebounded reasonably well, and he's a good kid ho doesn't create dramas.  I have no problem with his play, and I think he's been steady improving lately.


Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #58 on: January 11, 2013, 07:01:24 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Question - how would Jason Terry, Courtney Lee, Brandon Bass, Jared Sullinger, Rajon Rondo or Paul Pierce look if we grabbed their 7 worst shooting games of the season and post them up here?  My bet is not much better, in some cases worse (especially Lee).

Did you read the OP?  These aren't cherry-picked games.  Rather, they're 50% of what Green has been doing lately, accounting for 2 out of every 4 games.

If Paul Pierce was shooting under 33% over half the time, people rightly would be calling him inconsistent (and worse).


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Re: Why can't Jeff Green put a streak of good (or bad) games together?
« Reply #59 on: January 11, 2013, 07:05:23 PM »

Offline GreenFaith1819

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Good question.

I haven't seen many of the games, unfortunately...is he at least bringing it defensively? I saw good things here in the game thread for the NY game as far as his defense vs Carmelo.

I believe the consistency will come.

As long as he can trip up, slow down, etc - the Melos and LeBrons of the world I'm happy.

The consistency will come.