Author Topic: +/- interesting stats so far in the season ( J.Sullinger )  (Read 2174 times)

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Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season ( J.Sullinger )
« Reply #15 on: January 10, 2013, 01:03:04 PM »

Offline ScottHow

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Interesting stats.

I could careless if he is starting if Doc gives min 30+ minutes like last night. It's also on Sully to stay out of foul trouble.

Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season ( J.Sullinger )
« Reply #16 on: January 10, 2013, 01:26:10 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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I agree with Faf that it's too small of a sample.  However, it's definitely encouraging, and Sully should definitely be starting.

I am also very encouraged by Sully's play as of late.  I still question how high is ceiling can really be, but, other guys with similar build have been very successful.

As long as Bass is still on the team he needs to start, though.

Chris states it quite well.


The only reason Sully isn't starting is because Bass currently needs to play as well, and by playing him with the starters, you can likely get more out of him, while Sully seems to be able to play well, regardless whether he is starting or coming off the bench. 

Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season
« Reply #17 on: January 10, 2013, 01:33:03 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Sullinger clearly has played well for us Boris, but that doesn't mean we should use a stat that has a miniscule sample size because it fits the eye test and other measures.

The direction I don't dispute.

The teammate, quality of opposition, and pure noise with +/- is huge. A single blowout win/loss can vastly alter your numbers even with 40 games in the season as well.

Also, I'm not sure what is the basis for your claim that you need "thousands" of minutes. The sample size necessary depends on the hypothesis one is testing.
I'm paraphrasing what I've read based on various stats articles of people who've created, critqued, or used +/- to evaluate individual player performance. IE rank just how good KG is, compared to Kevin Durant or LeBron James.

Its a very noisy measure.

Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season ( J.Sullinger )
« Reply #18 on: January 10, 2013, 01:35:12 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.

Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark.  Works out well for us.

Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season ( J.Sullinger )
« Reply #19 on: January 10, 2013, 01:39:09 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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what Sully lacks in speed and jumping abiliity, he seems to MORE than makeup with determination, work ethic, BB IQ, respect from coachs and peers. 

He keeps his house in order, his head clear and doesn't often try to do more than he is capaible.

He stays "COOL" under pressure and listens to Doc. Tommy H. can't say enough good things about Sully steady -smart game he brings.

Someone , probally his family have been a huge impact on the maturity of this fellow.

Having players like Fab, AB , and Sully are priceless from a GM , COACH and team standpoint. 

Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season ( J.Sullinger )
« Reply #20 on: January 10, 2013, 02:25:29 PM »

Online ImShakHeIsShaq

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I do not know how many times I say this for people to get it (I'm ALWAYS right, hehehe)... Sully HAS to come off the bench! Not b/c he is not good enough but b/c that is what THIS team needs. His rebounding, defense, smarts is what we NEED out of our bench big... Bass is good but he needs to start b/c he is at his best when is with KG/AB/RR... being with the starters hides Bass' weaknesses and highlights his strengths... he is a solid defender but was better last season, he does seem to be getting back to that b/c he is comfortable in the role he now has again. Notice how he doesn't do that fake/hesitation drive as much as he did earlier this season, he has started to go back to just shooting it like last season... starting let's Bass be just one of the guys in a lineup of greats, he doesn't have to try to lead or force anything, he can just pull up and knock down shots. Again, we NEED Sully off the bench, for this team and that's not a slight to him or Bass, because we need both of them in the role that makes the team better regardless of whether they deserve something or not. This is a team game, not a who deserves what game.
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Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season ( J.Sullinger )
« Reply #21 on: January 10, 2013, 02:48:51 PM »

Online AB_Celtic

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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.

Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark.  Works out well for us.

Yeah I agree. Another thing you didn't mention is how much more effective Bass is when he's starting vs. when he's coming off the bench. Sure, Sully could be slightly better starting, but I'm not sure it's enough to offset how much worse Bass would be.

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Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season
« Reply #22 on: January 10, 2013, 02:57:52 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Sullinger clearly has played well for us Boris, but that doesn't mean we should use a stat that has a miniscule sample size because it fits the eye test and other measures.

The direction I don't dispute.

The teammate, quality of opposition, and pure noise with +/- is huge. A single blowout win/loss can vastly alter your numbers even with 40 games in the season as well.

Also, I'm not sure what is the basis for your claim that you need "thousands" of minutes. The sample size necessary depends on the hypothesis one is testing.
I'm paraphrasing what I've read based on various stats articles of people who've created, critqued, or used +/- to evaluate individual player performance. IE rank just how good KG is, compared to Kevin Durant or LeBron James.

Its a very noisy measure.

Actually, no.  Whether it is 'noisy' depends, as Boris indicated, on what you are trying to use the information for.

As a measurement of what historically happened, it is actually not noisy at all.  It is simply exactly what happened during those minutes.  You can definitively say that so far, overall, the Celtics have been 'N points' better with Sully on the court over those 'M minutes'.

As a measure of how strong a lineup is relative to other lineups in the league and thus usable for predicting, say, playoff success (since +/- net ratings are extremely useful for that) - then you are absolutely correct.  It is still too small a sample size and extremely noisy for THAT kind of usage.
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Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season ( J.Sullinger )
« Reply #23 on: January 10, 2013, 03:04:52 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.

Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark.  Works out well for us.

In terms of lineups with Sullinger in there, the team is by far most effective when KG and Sully are sharing the floor together.  I think maximizing that makes sense.

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Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season ( J.Sullinger )
« Reply #24 on: January 10, 2013, 03:09:19 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.

Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark.  Works out well for us.

In terms of lineups with Sullinger in there, the team is by far most effective when KG and Sully are sharing the floor together.  I think maximizing that makes sense.

http://www.82games.com/1213/12BOS11.HTM#5man
I'm not sure about that. If we want our rebounding to avoid cratering we almost certainly want KG or Sullinger on the floor at all times. That's easier to achieve with Sullinger on the bench.

Not only that but Sullinger coming in as a sub makes it easier for Doc to manage match ups that could cause him issues.

I also worry about riding Sullinger for too many minutes, he's showing the potential to be a much better PF for this team than Bass. We don't want to wear him out, I'm thinking of Davis's last year here.

Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season ( J.Sullinger )
« Reply #25 on: January 10, 2013, 03:17:15 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.

Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark.  Works out well for us.

In terms of lineups with Sullinger in there, the team is by far most effective when KG and Sully are sharing the floor together.  I think maximizing that makes sense.

http://www.82games.com/1213/12BOS11.HTM#5man
I'm not sure about that. If we want our rebounding to avoid cratering we almost certainly want KG or Sullinger on the floor at all times. That's easier to achieve with Sullinger on the bench.

Not only that but Sullinger coming in as a sub makes it easier for Doc to manage match ups that could cause him issues.

I also worry about riding Sullinger for too many minutes, he's showing the potential to be a much better PF for this team than Bass. We don't want to wear him out, I'm thinking of Davis's last year here.

It's a small sample size, but the lineups featuring Sully next to anybody but KG have largely been pretty poor.  Meanwhile, a lot of the lineups with KG and Sully have been dominant.

I'd rather have a dominating lineup that can run up the score and can compete against any opposing lineup rather than a more mediocre starting lineup and a mediocre bench.

I think it's the same argument as the one regarding moving Pierce to the bench.  I'd rather maximize the strength of our primary unit, instead of weakening our biggest strength.


D. Cousins / I. Mahinmi / P. Antic
D. West / R. Anderson / C. Copeland
L. Deng / K. Singler / D. Rudez
A. Iguodala / V. Carter / B. Gordon / C.J. Wilcox
K. Irving / S. Livingston / S. Blake

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Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season ( J.Sullinger )
« Reply #26 on: January 10, 2013, 03:23:26 PM »

Offline ScottHow

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As long as Sully is getting 25+ minutes I don't really care.

I do like the current rotation where Sully comes in when KG goes out in the first, then Sully finished the 1st, and is back out there with KG to start the second.

Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season ( J.Sullinger )
« Reply #27 on: January 10, 2013, 03:24:22 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.

Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark.  Works out well for us.

In terms of lineups with Sullinger in there, the team is by far most effective when KG and Sully are sharing the floor together.  I think maximizing that makes sense.

http://www.82games.com/1213/12BOS11.HTM#5man
I'm not sure about that. If we want our rebounding to avoid cratering we almost certainly want KG or Sullinger on the floor at all times. That's easier to achieve with Sullinger on the bench.

Not only that but Sullinger coming in as a sub makes it easier for Doc to manage match ups that could cause him issues.

I also worry about riding Sullinger for too many minutes, he's showing the potential to be a much better PF for this team than Bass. We don't want to wear him out, I'm thinking of Davis's last year here.

It's a small sample size, but the lineups featuring Sully next to anybody but KG have largely been pretty poor.  Meanwhile, a lot of the lineups with KG and Sully have been dominant.

I'd rather have a dominating lineup that can run up the score and can compete against any opposing lineup rather than a more mediocre starting lineup and a mediocre bench.

I think it's the same argument as the one regarding moving Pierce to the bench.  I'd rather maximize the strength of our primary unit, instead of weakening our biggest strength.
I don't think so because Sullinger isn't going to be a mid 30s minutes guy. He's too foul prone, likely not conditioned, and probably too raw for it.

Also as someone else said, KG/Sullinger is timed such that most teams are putting in a lot of bench players. I'm not sure its going to be that much better than Bass/KG against starters.

Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season ( J.Sullinger )
« Reply #28 on: January 10, 2013, 03:28:02 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Unlike others, I do NOT think Sully should start, since these statistics were achieved by him coming off the BENCH.

Sully is our sub for KG at the 5 min mark.  Works out well for us.

In terms of lineups with Sullinger in there, the team is by far most effective when KG and Sully are sharing the floor together.  I think maximizing that makes sense.

http://www.82games.com/1213/12BOS11.HTM#5man
I'm not sure about that. If we want our rebounding to avoid cratering we almost certainly want KG or Sullinger on the floor at all times. That's easier to achieve with Sullinger on the bench.

Not only that but Sullinger coming in as a sub makes it easier for Doc to manage match ups that could cause him issues.

I also worry about riding Sullinger for too many minutes, he's showing the potential to be a much better PF for this team than Bass. We don't want to wear him out, I'm thinking of Davis's last year here.

It's a small sample size, but the lineups featuring Sully next to anybody but KG have largely been pretty poor.  Meanwhile, a lot of the lineups with KG and Sully have been dominant.

I'd rather have a dominating lineup that can run up the score and can compete against any opposing lineup rather than a more mediocre starting lineup and a mediocre bench.

I think it's the same argument as the one regarding moving Pierce to the bench.  I'd rather maximize the strength of our primary unit, instead of weakening our biggest strength.

I totally agree with Roy on this.  It is better to focus on maximizing your primary lineup.  Having a strong bench is good.  But not as important as the starting unit.   This becomes more critical in the playoffs, when you shrink rotations and expand the minutes of your starters.

Wild card:  I actually like Wilcox (when healthy) the best next to KG.  That said, Wilcox & Bass make for a pretty decent pairing off the bench because Wilcox' interior offense and Bass' almost exclusive outside offense are complementary.
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Re: +/- interesting stats so far in the season
« Reply #29 on: January 10, 2013, 03:35:46 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Sullinger clearly has played well for us Boris, but that doesn't mean we should use a stat that has a miniscule sample size because it fits the eye test and other measures.

The direction I don't dispute.

The teammate, quality of opposition, and pure noise with +/- is huge. A single blowout win/loss can vastly alter your numbers even with 40 games in the season as well.

Also, I'm not sure what is the basis for your claim that you need "thousands" of minutes. The sample size necessary depends on the hypothesis one is testing.
I'm paraphrasing what I've read based on various stats articles of people who've created, critqued, or used +/- to evaluate individual player performance. IE rank just how good KG is, compared to Kevin Durant or LeBron James.

Its a very noisy measure.

I haven't run the numbers (though one could), but here is an example. If the question is "Is Sully's +/- higher when he starts vs. coming off the bench?" then the sample size is almost assuredly too small.

If the question is "Is Sully's +/- higher than that for Bass in 2012-2013 because of randomness, or Sully being a better player?" you might be able to say more. What you'd need is some measure of how much randomness (variance) there is typically in a particular player's +/- at this point in the season, using data from past years and perhaps comparable players.

Then you take the difference between Sully's +/- and Bass', and compare that difference to the variance one would expect to see even in the same player over time. In other words, how probable is it that they are identical quality players, but that randomness has made Sully look better?

There's some nuance to it of course (e.g., Sully's net +/- has to be the negative of Bass' if they are always subbing for each other). But that's the general idea.


 

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