Author Topic: Look at Demarcus Cousin's numbers since returning, exactly why he's staying put  (Read 4847 times)

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Offline RyNye

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Also, not to be **** or anything, but the OP got the numbers wrong.

Since returning, these are the actual averages:

20.8 points per game
13.5 rebounds per game
5 assists per game
0.5 blocks per game
1.8 steals per game
1.8 turnovers per game
4 fouls per game

48.0% field goal percentage
80.5% free throw percentage

Not quite as rosy. The turnovers and FG% are pretty big red flags.

Offline Moranis

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Also, not to be **** or anything, but the OP got the numbers wrong.

Since returning, these are the actual averages:

20.8 points per game
13.5 rebounds per game
5 assists per game
0.5 blocks per game
1.8 steals per game
1.8 turnovers per game
4 fouls per game

48.0% field goal percentage
80.5% free throw percentage

Not quite as rosy. The turnovers and FG% are pretty big red flags.
that is hardly any turnovers for a big guy with the ball that much.
2014 Pick 2 Draft 18th pick of 20
Sacramento Kings
Starters - Isaiah Thomas, Eric Gordon, Jimmy Butler, Dirk Nowitzki, Demarcus Cousins
Bench - Kendall Marshall, Michael Carter-Williams, Vince Carter, Wesley Johnson, Marcus Morris, Miles Plumlee, Nerlens Noel

Online Fafnir

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Also, not to be **** or anything, but the OP got the numbers wrong.

Since returning, these are the actual averages:

20.8 points per game
13.5 rebounds per game
5 assists per game
0.5 blocks per game
1.8 steals per game
1.8 turnovers per game
4 fouls per game

48.0% field goal percentage
80.5% free throw percentage

Not quite as rosy. The turnovers and FG% are pretty big red flags.
that is hardly any turnovers for a big guy with the ball that much.
Yeah 2 TOs when you're shooting enough to score 20 PPG is nothing. Throw in 5 assists and you're doing VERY well in the TO department.

Offline wdleehi

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Also, not to be **** or anything, but the OP got the numbers wrong.

Since returning, these are the actual averages:

20.8 points per game
13.5 rebounds per game
5 assists per game
0.5 blocks per game
1.8 steals per game
1.8 turnovers per game
4 fouls per game

48.0% field goal percentage
80.5% free throw percentage

Not quite as rosy. The turnovers and FG% are pretty big red flags.


5 assists to 1.8 turnovers is a bad thing? 

2.7 assist to TO ratio.  The best C is 2.07.   The best PF is 2.00.  There are only two SFs that are better.




Running the Clippers with Redz.

Offline RyNye

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Why is it that I always have to explain basketball 101 to people?

Yeah 2 TOs when you're shooting enough to score 20 PPG is nothing. Throw in 5 assists and you're doing VERY well in the TO department.
[/quote]

First of all, "shooting enough to score 20 PPG" is an incredibly meaningless statement.

You DO realize that scoring 20 points is a BAD thing if your field goal percentage is as low as Cousins' is? You DO realize that a missed shot has the exact same effect as a turnover if you don't get the offensive rebound?

Think about it this way: the league average field goal percentage for a center is 49.7%. During Cousins' BEST STRETCH OF THE SEASON he shot 48, but his average for the ENTIRE season so far is a measly 42.9%. This coming from a player who launches 23.5 field goal attempts every game.

So, first of all, it should be a HUGE red flag to you when he has more field goal attempts than points. So, out of 23.5 field goal attempts, he converts, on average, 42.9% of them (before you say anything about him having a slump for the season, his FG from previous seasons is not much better. His career average is just over 43). So, in an average game, he is going to get you about 10 field goals (or, roughly 20 points, give or take depending on 3 pointers and free throws and all that).

But a LEAGUE AVERAGE center, on the same number of field goal attempts, will convert almost 12 of those field goals. Cousins is producing FEWER POINTS PER GAME THAN AN AVERAGE CENTER WOULD GIVEN THE SAME NUMBER OF FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS. That means Cousins is a below average scorer. Considering the Kings have plenty of ABOVE average shooters, Cousins is actively hurting the Kings by taking all of those shots that should be being taken by GOOD shooters, as opposed to BAD ones.

So that's that.

Now, on to the turnovers. Yes, during Cousins's BEST STRETCH OF THE SEASON he had a good assist to turnover ratio. Good for him. Do you know how he is doing on the season as a whole? 2.7 assists per game, 2.5 turnovers per game. Ouch.

So when Cousins plays out of his mind, best basketball of the season, he just manages to not turn the ball over so much as he usually does, but he is stool shooting TERRIBLY.

I am not impressed, and I am really surprised at how often I have to explain to people that 20 points on 23 shots is NOT a good thing to have on your basketball team. It is actively harmful. If you are missing 13 shots per game, on average, as Cousins is, and your team manages to grab <10% of available offensive rebounds (as the Kings do) - meaning of those 13 you will get 1-2 back, let's say 2 to be charitable.

That's 11 extra turnovers.

And yes, they are equivalent. After all, what is the difference between a missed shot and a turnover? Absolutely nothing. It gives the other team possession, and basketball is a game of maximizing possessions. Obviously, every player misses shots. However, you need to make sure that the players with the best chance of making a shot are taking it, to increase the odds of scoring points versus turning the ball over to the other team. When you have a player that converts field goal attempts at a rate that is LOWER THAN THE LEAGUE AVERAGE, he should NOT be taking a lot of shots, because he will be turning the ball over to the other team at a greater rate.

Seriously, people, basketball 101.

Offline wdleehi

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NBA 101


Big man (7 footers) capable of a double double  (20 and 10) are always wanted. 


Throw in the fact that he has the chance to really grow, teams take that chance.


If he was the player he is capable of being right now, their is no way the Celtics have the pieces to get him. 


But if you can get him now, on the cheap before his big contract, you take the chance.


Running the Clippers with Redz.

Offline kozlodoev

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Do you know how he is doing on the season as a whole? 2.7 assists per game, 2.5 turnovers per game. Ouch.
For a center, that's not horrible at all, so I'm not sure what the ouch is all about.

For centers who play 20+ minutes, this slightly above average (which is 0.95) and good for 10th in the league (of a total of 33 players).

Want the real bottom-dwellers from that lot? Try Dwight Howard, Brook Lopez, Nikola Pekovic, or Omer Asik.

Seriously, people, basketball 101.
Follow your own advice and gain some perspective before teaching others. Thank you.
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Offline kozlodoev

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NBA 101
I'll also give you another NBA 101: every time you have the chance to add this type of talent without giving up any of your top 4-5 players, you do it and don't look back. Issues or no issues.
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Online Fafnir

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A league "average" center:

Shoots 50% FG 54 TS% and scores 13.7 Points per 40 minutes on 11.2 FGA/p40 with 10 Reb/p40 3.7 FTA/40 (and shoots 67% from the line), 1.6 Assists/p40, and has 2.8 TO/p40

Cousins:

Shoot 48% .54 TS% and scored 25.25 Points/p40 on 20 FGA/p40, 7.3 FTA/p40, 16 Reb/p40, 6.1 Ast/p40, 2.22 TO/p40

Cousins isn't scoring more efficiently than the average C. (who mostly just shoots layups others generates) but he's scoring a LOT more than the average C which is very valuable. In every other category he's far better than an average center.

Even if you move it up to solely Cs who play 30+ minutes a game he's still putting up great performances in the past 6 games. And at that point you're comparing him to the best other teams can put out there.

Offline Roy H.

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A league "average" center:

Shoots 50% FG 54 TS% and scores 13.7 Points per 40 minutes on 11.2 FGA/p40 with 10 Reb/p40 3.7 FTA/40 (and shoots 67% from the line), 1.6 Assists/p40, and has 2.8 TO/p40

Cousins:

Shoot 48% .54 TS% and scored 25.25 Points/p40 on 20 FGA/p40, 7.3 FTA/p40, 16 Reb/p40, 6.1 Ast/p40, 2.22 TO/p40

Cousins isn't scoring more efficiently than the average C. (who mostly just shoots layups others generates) but he's scoring a LOT more than the average C which is very valuable. In every other category he's far better than an average center.

Even if you move it up to solely Cs who play 30+ minutes a game he's still putting up great performances in the past 6 games. And at that point you're comparing him to the best other teams can put out there.

Yeah, if my starting center shoots 48% while putting up 20 points, I'm okay with that.

I'm more concerned about the 41% or so he shot the rest of the season, but I think with better teammates and a better system his shot selection would improve.


D. Cousins / I. Mahinmi / P. Antic
D. West / R. Anderson / C. Copeland
L. Deng / K. Singler / D. Rudez
A. Iguodala / V. Carter / B. Gordon / C.J. Wilcox
K. Irving / S. Livingston / S. Blake

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Online Fafnir

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Interesting thing is that if you cut the center crop down to the heavy minutes guys they FG% drops a full percent to 49.3%.

Just shows you that if you filter out the backups who mostly get putbacks and the like Cousins 48% isn't unusual at all.

Online Fafnir

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Also the "best" other teams can put out there includes Byron Mullens and Vuvevic.

So yeah......

I wish hoopdata had a PF/C option in its sort fields.

Offline alajet

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23.5 field goal attempts per game? Am I high or something? I double checked the stats and saw that he's taking 15.1 shots per game.
Still trying to get from where this number popped up.

Offline PhoSita

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Even if Demarcus is miserable, doesn't make sense for the Kings to move him before the summer.  Probably a draft day trade -- say if they really liked one of the top 2-3 picks or something.
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Offline Chris

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Even if Demarcus is miserable, doesn't make sense for the Kings to move him before the summer.  Probably a draft day trade -- say if they really liked one of the top 2-3 picks or something.

Eh, that's pretty risky, and they might lose value.  If he has another hissy fit (or two) this year, his value could draft any lower, and right now, they also have team like the C's, who are a little desperate for an impact big man, and may pay more than they would in the offseason.

It makes sense to make a trade in the offseason, when you are a winning team and don't want to upset things, or when the player has a big contract that is cumbersome to match.  However, with the Kings going nowhere, and Cousin's having a relatively small deal, it makes more sense to try to maximize his value before it gets any lower.

 

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