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[CFAN38]

I had previously posted this on the silver lining thread but it is on the thread page and went unnoticed.

I find it very interesting how non super athletic PFs stats seem to consistently project from there per 48 as rookies to their best seasons as pros. Their Pts stay the same and there rbs typicality drop 2-3 per game.

Per 48 (as rookies)

Sully   14.6pts 13.8rb 1.2blk 1.2stl 11.8 FGA  .49 fg%

Boozer  19.0pts 14.3rb 1.2blk 1.4stl 14.5 FGA  .53 fg%

BBD     16.0pts 10.6rb 1.0blk 1.6stl 11.3 FGA  .48 fg%

Brand   26.0pts 13.0rb 2.1blk 1.1stl 20.9 FGA  .48 fg%

Big AL  21.0pts 13.5rb 2.1blk 1.4stl 17.1 FGA  .49 fg%

Love    21.1pts 17.2rb 1.2blk 0.8stl 16.1 FGA  .45 fg%

at there best per game

Boozer  21pt 10rb

BBD     16pt 8rb

Brand   25pt 10rb

Big AL  23pt 11rb

Love    26pt 15rb


With these comparisons I expect Sully to develop into at least 15pt 10rb a game starter if he stay healthy and continues to develop. He could potentially surpass that 15pts a game if featured in an offense like boozer was but this isn't ideal.

[LooseCannon]

His stats are probably a bit more similar to the rookie numbers of players such as David West, Lavoy Allen, Udonis Haslem, and Sheldon Williams than the players you cite.

[clover]

I had previously posted this on the silver lining thread but it is on the thread page and went unnoticed.

I find it very interesting how non super athletic PFs stats seem to consistently project from there per 48 as rookies to their best seasons as pros. Their Pts stay the same and there rbs typicality drop 2-3 per game.

Per 48 (as rookies)

Sully   14.6pts 13.8rb 1.2blk 1.2stl 11.8 FGA  .49 fg%

Boozer  19.0pts 14.3rb 1.2blk 1.4stl 14.5 FGA  .53 fg%

BBD     16.0pts 10.6rb 1.0blk 1.6stl 11.3 FGA  .48 fg%

Brand   26.0pts 13.0rb 2.1blk 1.1stl 20.9 FGA  .48 fg%

Big AL  21.0pts 13.5rb 2.1blk 1.4stl 17.1 FGA  .49 fg%

Love    21.1pts 17.2rb 1.2blk 0.8stl 16.1 FGA  .45 fg%

at there best per game

Boozer  21pt 10rb

BBD     16pt 8rb

Brand   25pt 10rb

Big AL  23pt 11rb

Love    26pt 15rb


With these comparisons I expect Sully to develop into at least 15pt 10rb a game starter if he stay healthy and continues to develop. He could potentially surpass that 15pts a game if featured in an offense like boozer was but this isn't ideal.

Which in practicality would me he'd only start on a contending team that had a monster of a center or a couple of monsters out on the wing/pg positions--especially considering his limited defensive ceiling.

[Chris]

His stats are probably a bit more similar to the rookie numbers of players such as David West, Lavoy Allen, Udonis Haslem, and Sheldon Williams than the players you cite.

I was going to say, it would be interesting to see some numbers from some of the lesser players as well to compare.

Per 48 minute stats can just be so misleading when guys are not playing close to that many minutes.  It is hard to make projections based on those. 

[wdleehi]

Can you throw Ike Diogu's numbers in there too? 


as a rookie

per 48

22.5 points

10.6 rebounds

52.4% shooting

1.4 blocks


Career highs

9.2 points

3.9 rebounds.






This is not a good way to project a player.

[CFAN38]

I should have noted that I only picked players who played decent minutes as rookies. This doesn't work for guys who played limited minutes in a few games.

[pearljammer10]

Yeah I can't stand per 48 stats. I just doesnt make sense to me because the numbers get inflated so much. If a player can make a huge impact in the 30 minutes they play thats great but no one can keep up that intensity and consistent production for a full 48 minutes every night.

[Chris]

I should have noted that I only picked players who played decent minutes as rookies. This doesn't work for guys who played limited minutes in a few games.

Well Diogu played 15 minutes per game, and started a handful of games as a rookie.

A few more:

Carl Landry:
23.2 points
14.0 rebs
0.5 blks

Jason Maxiell:
17.0 pts
9.5 rebs
3.1 blks

Dejuan Blair:
20.5 pts
16.9 rebs
1.3 blks

Craig Smith (played 18.7 minutes per game as a rookie!):
19.0 pts
13.0 rebs
0.6 blks

I love me some Sullinger, but lets not play around with stats too much here. 

[TripleOT]

Per 48 or per 36 minute stats are really only good to measure and compare the rate of production for a player.  It really doesn't tell you if a player will be that productive if his minutes are stretched out to 36. 

Sullinger shows all the signs of becoming a solid rotation guy, at least. He has real good basketball instincts, a good shooting touch, and a natural ability to get his shot off over bigger guys.

What I'd like to see is the Celtics dump the ball to Sully in the low post against similar sizes or smaller covers, and also step out and drive against bigger guys. The Cs desperately need inside scoring, and Sully's their best bet right now.   

[LooseCannon]

Yeah I can't stand per 48 stats. I just doesnt make sense to me because the numbers get inflated so much. If a player can make a huge impact in the 30 minutes they play thats great but no one can keep up that intensity and consistent production for a full 48 minutes every night.

It's a rate-based stat.  You can just as easily scale it to per 30 or per 36.  b-r.com uses the latter.

[bdm860]

Hey Clearance Weatherspoon did 23/11 as a rookie per 48.  Don Reid did 13/10.  Former Celtic Brandon Hunter did 15/14.  Jason Collins even did 11/10.  Vitaly Potapenko did 18/8.  Travis Knight did 14/13.  Mike Sweetney did 17/15.  Marcus Fizer did 21/9.  Corlis Williamson did 21/9.

Drawing conclusions from Per-48 numbers isn't going to get you anywhere.

[LooseCannon]

Drawing conclusions from Per-48 numbers isn't going to get you anywhere.

Drawing conclusions from numbers derived from traditional box score stats, as per x minute numbers are, won't tell you much about a player's defense, and the probability that Sullinger becomes an above-average defender is more important to me than the probability that he becomes a 20ppg guy.

[Chris]

Drawing conclusions from Per-48 numbers isn't going to get you anywhere.

Drawing conclusions from numbers derived from traditional box score stats, as per x minute numbers are, won't tell you much about a player's defense, and the probability that Sullinger becomes an above-average defender is more important to me than the probability that he becomes a 20ppg guy.

I honestly think that if he can just slow down on the fouls, he is already an above-average defender.  In fact, his defense has impressed me much more than his offense this year.  He just has such good positioning, and work so hard on the boards.  He just needs to learn to stop reaching in, and holding guys so much.

[relja]

Per-48 stats is the stupidest thing ever.

Imagine if I played 2mpg and got 2pts, 1ast and 1rb, I would average 48pts/24ast/24rb. So no, it's stupid.

[pearljammer10]

Hey Clearance Weatherspoon did 23/11 as a rookie per 48.  Don Reid did 13/10.  Former Celtic Brandon Hunter did 15/14.  Jason Collins even did 11/10.  Vitaly Potapenko did 18/8.  Travis Knight did 14/13.  Mike Sweetney did 17/15.  Marcus Fizer did 21/9.  Corlis Williamson did 21/9.

Drawing conclusions from Per-48 numbers isn't going to get you anywhere.

This.

Per-48 stats is the stupidest thing ever.

Imagine if I played 2mpg and got 2pts, 1ast and 1rb, I would average 48pts/24ast/24rb. So no, it's stupid.

And to not quite the extreme but on the same wave length of this poster...This.