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I had previously posted this on the silver lining thread but it is on the thread page and went unnoticed.I find it very interesting how non super athletic PFs stats seem to consistently project from there per 48 as rookies to their best seasons as pros. Their Pts stay the same and there rbs typicality drop 2-3 per game.Per 48 (as rookies)Sully 14.6pts 13.8rb 1.2blk 1.2stl 11.8 FGA .49 fg%Boozer 19.0pts 14.3rb 1.2blk 1.4stl 14.5 FGA .53 fg%BBD 16.0pts 10.6rb 1.0blk 1.6stl 11.3 FGA .48 fg%Brand 26.0pts 13.0rb 2.1blk 1.1stl 20.9 FGA .48 fg%Big AL 21.0pts 13.5rb 2.1blk 1.4stl 17.1 FGA .49 fg%Love 21.1pts 17.2rb 1.2blk 0.8stl 16.1 FGA .45 fg%at there best per gameBoozer 21pt 10rbBBD 16pt 8rbBrand 25pt 10rbBig AL 23pt 11rbLove 26pt 15rbWith these comparisons I expect Sully to develop into at least 15pt 10rb a game starter if he stay healthy and continues to develop. He could potentially surpass that 15pts a game if featured in an offense like boozer was but this isn't ideal.
His stats are probably a bit more similar to the rookie numbers of players such as David West, Lavoy Allen, Udonis Haslem, and Sheldon Williams than the players you cite.
I should have noted that I only picked players who played decent minutes as rookies. This doesn't work for guys who played limited minutes in a few games.
Yeah I can't stand per 48 stats. I just doesnt make sense to me because the numbers get inflated so much. If a player can make a huge impact in the 30 minutes they play thats great but no one can keep up that intensity and consistent production for a full 48 minutes every night.
Drawing conclusions from Per-48 numbers isn't going to get you anywhere.
Quote from: bdm860 on January 03, 2013, 10:05:51 AMDrawing conclusions from Per-48 numbers isn't going to get you anywhere.Drawing conclusions from numbers derived from traditional box score stats, as per x minute numbers are, won't tell you much about a player's defense, and the probability that Sullinger becomes an above-average defender is more important to me than the probability that he becomes a 20ppg guy.
Hey Clearance Weatherspoon did 23/11 as a rookie per 48. Don Reid did 13/10. Former Celtic Brandon Hunter did 15/14. Jason Collins even did 11/10. Vitaly Potapenko did 18/8. Travis Knight did 14/13. Mike Sweetney did 17/15. Marcus Fizer did 21/9. Corlis Williamson did 21/9.Drawing conclusions from Per-48 numbers isn't going to get you anywhere.
Per-48 stats is the stupidest thing ever.Imagine if I played 2mpg and got 2pts, 1ast and 1rb, I would average 48pts/24ast/24rb. So no, it's stupid.