Author Topic: Let's talk about trade value  (Read 6336 times)

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Let's talk about trade value
« on: December 29, 2012, 02:36:38 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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One of my biggest pet peeves is the custom of most fans to discuss unrealistic trade proposals, never wanting to give up anything of value in a trade.  Case in point; those that want to make trades that don't include either either Avery or Sully or the Big Three.  So I thought I'd start a thread to estimate what kind of trade value the guys on our roster have right at this moment.

Here is my totally made up scale.  It goes from -3 to 3.  Negative values represent guys that actually bring down the value of a package, usually because they suck AND they have bad contracts.  I'm thinking a -3 would be extremely rare.  It would have to go to a guy that sucks, has a horrible contract with multiple years left, and is also a malcontent.

3 - excellent trade value; star player or star potential on good contract.
2 - good trade value; potential or young on good contract;  lot of guys old fit here.
1 - some trade value; potentially a specialist; limited potential on good contract
0 - trade value neutral; neither adds or takes away from package; potentially trade filler with small or expiring contract.

So here is my take on the Celts:

Varnado (0) - minimum contract; only to be included as cap filler and even tht is unlikely.
Joseph (0) - little potential, small contract
Barbosa (0.5) - I'm hedging on my scale here.  Has potential to contribute in spurts but there is a reason he was in the street.  Contract is minimum so that's a plus.
Collins (0) - another minimum guy with no real value
Lee (0.5) - I may be a bit kind here.  One could argue its almost 0 but weve seen him contribute before.  His contract brings him down some.
Green (0) - has potential;  some may give him a negative solely because of his contract.  I wouldn't go that far and I might be tempted to give him a 1.
Bass (0.5) - his contract is not horrible but he is limited to be sure.  Is being exposed for what he is; average.
Terry (1) - I may be overvaluing him a big based on his contract but I think good teams looking for a spark would still be interested.
Sully (1.5) - young player with potential but will always be limited because of lack of athleticism.  Biggest contribution will be on the boards.
Avery (1.5) - I think Celtic fans overvalue Avery.  Certainly a game changer on defense but he is limited against some shooting guards.  Would be great if he could play point and guard points exclusively.
Pierce (2) - his value is less for rebuilding teams.
KG (2) - see above
Rondo (2.5) - he is a star but not quite a 3, as seen by the inability in the offseason to get us a star in return.

Trade value is not linear.  No amount of 1's will get you a 3. 








Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #1 on: December 29, 2012, 02:57:48 PM »

Offline letsgoblue86

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Fab Melo?

Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #2 on: December 29, 2012, 02:58:39 PM »

Online rondohondo

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Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2012, 03:03:46 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Fab Melo?
Knew I forgot someone.  I'd probably put melo at a 0.5 at this moment.

Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2012, 03:07:01 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Trade value is a tricky thing.  Who ever would have thought that Orlando would have traded Dwight Howard for Arron Afflalo, Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless, and a handful of draft picks.

Who would have thought that Marc Gasol would be the primary return in a trade for Pau Gasol?

I agree that the chances of the Celts landing an impact all-star are small.  However, never underestimate the stupidity / desperation of an NBA GM.


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Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2012, 03:11:27 PM »

Offline Lightskinsmurf

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Trade value is a tricky thing.  Who ever would have thought that Orlando would have traded Dwight Howard for Arron Afflalo, Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless, and a handful of draft picks.

Who would have thought that Marc Gasol would be the primary return in a trade for Pau Gasol?

I agree that the chances of the Celts landing an impact all-star are small.  However, never underestimate the stupidity / desperation of an NBA GM.

I would never...

Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2012, 03:16:39 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Trade value is a tricky thing.  Who ever would have thought that Orlando would have traded Dwight Howard for Arron Afflalo, Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless, and a handful of draft picks.

Who would have thought that Marc Gasol would be the primary return in a trade for Pau Gasol?

I agree that the chances of the Celts landing an impact all-star are small.  However, never underestimate the stupidity / desperation of an NBA GM.
No question.  Obviously, trade value is in the eye of the beholder.  I was trying to estimate as best I could, the average for our guys.

Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2012, 03:27:22 PM »

Offline sdceltsfan

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I like this concept, and your overall evaluations within the scale.

I think I would give PP/KG 2.5's though, and AB a 2....Melo a 1 because of his size.

Pierce and KG don't have long contracts, so Pierce especially would be a 2.5. It would take the perfect deal for DA to shake up the chemistry that much to part ways with them, and either of these guys in the right trade for the team that gets them, could potentially put them in a great win-now situation. That almost always outweighs future and potential; fans want championships in the present.

AB needs to build to a 2, so I will give you the 1.5 because of his injury situation. I hope he gets to that level.


So how do you value DMC in this scenario? I would say he's a solid 2.5 to the Kings, but close to a 3 for a team like us, who I would argue, has a stronger case to contend with a big man of his caliber in our starting rotation.

And when putting together a trade, are you implying that a Bradley (1.5) + Sully (1.5) = Demarcus Cousins (2.5-3)?

I'm guessing the lesser parts need to have a point total higher than the single, highest valued player in this scenario.

Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2012, 03:31:52 PM »

Online LarBrd33

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Rondo could nab a top 20 player or a top 5 pick.  You could trade him for Al Jefferson right now.  You could trade him or Josh Smith right now.  I think last year Golden State turned down trading Steph Curry for him.

 
Pierce could probably nab a young prospect or a mid first rounder.  He's old, but I could see a team looking to "take a leap" snatching him up.  SUpposedly we came close to trading him to the Nets last season for the pick that became the 6th pick.  He's still probably our 2nd best player behind KG... having a great year so far.

Not discussing KG's trade value, because he's going to die a Celtic.  His extension was more a cultural thing than anything.

I think Sully could totally nab a late lotto pick.  I'll give you that.  Pick 13-15 or something.  He's young and has limited potential, but he's already showing some game.   

I think Melo could maybe a late 1st rounder or early 2nd rounder.

I'm honestly not sure Avery Bradley could nab a lotto pick at this stage in his career.  Despite all the hype here in Boston, he's still a guy with an injury history coming off a season where he averaged less than a steal and 7 points.  He's also extremely undersized for a starting shooting guard (the reason why Jason Terry has spent most of his career as a 6th man) ....  I think Bradley nabs like a middle 1st rounder at the most.  I'm not even sure that's true... maybe a pick in the 20s. 

Bass has the same trade value as Glen Davis.  Probably most valuable as a throw-in... solid bench big. 

You can look at Courtney Lee's trade history to try and gauge his trade value.  Probably a throw-in type.

Jeff Green is our 4th best player, but his trade value because of his contract and lack of role is probably at an all-time low.  Maybe a late 1st rounder from a team willing to take on his contract?  Tough question with him.

 
« Last Edit: December 29, 2012, 03:40:49 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2012, 04:40:53 PM »

Offline Yogi

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   There is no objective evaluation that applies across the board to everyone.  Assets have different values for different teams.  Celtics have very little use for young players with potential for the next few years.  Sacramento is trying to establish a winning culture.  They can't handle Cousins.  That being said, you underrated a lot of the Celtics assets. 
   Kris Joseph and Fab Melo are putting up excellent stats in the D-league outperforming many players drafted higher than them. Jared Sullinger, arguably, should have been a top 5 draft pick in the past draft.  These guys are on the best possible contracts in the League.  Cheap for a long time.  The Celtics future first round draft picks should be expected to be around late teens to early twenties. Brandon Bass and Courtney Lee are valuable trade assets for a young team.  They are relatively young, productive, good character veterans with deep playoff experience on very reasonable contracts. 
  Leandro Barbosa, Chris Wilcox and Jason Collins would have a lot of trade value for teams who need specialist help.  A contender that needs a scorer, an energy big or post defense would value these guys highly especially on a minimum contract.  LA would love to have Barbosa (Duhon, Morris), or OKC wouldn't love to have Wilcox (Thabeet).  Jason Collins has a lot of value for any teams anticipating facing a Bynum or Howard in the post-season.  If they thought they might help them win a playoff series or two, they might even give up a good pick or two like the Pacers last year. 
   Avery Bradley is extremely valuable.  He's extremely young, and is a top defender.  He is a monster in transition, he has an excellent shooting stroke with solid percentages last year, he's a great cutter.  He's barely 22 with playoff experience.  He has not had one negative incident and everyone including Rondo, Doc and KG raves about his character and work ethic. 
   Boston has a lot of different assets of varying value.  They can make many different deals with many different teams, but the key is what are they looking for and do they have enough.  The idea that Boston has no valuable assets outside of the Big 3 is ridiculous. 
   For those who are not clear about Rondo's trade value, look at Chris Paul trade, and compare their numbers this year.  Even better look at Deron Williams trade and check their numbers.  Please stop with Rondo for Al Jefferson or Evans and Cousins stuff.  Neither one of those guys (Paul and Williams) have half the signature playoff series, or that ring that Rondo has. 
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Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #10 on: December 29, 2012, 05:02:26 PM »

Offline Who

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Rajon Rondo = 3
Avery Bradley = 1.5 to 2.0
Kevin Garnett = 1.5 (only to playoff teams)
Paul Pierce = 1.5 (only to playoff teams)
Jason Terry = 1 (only to playoff teams)
Courtney Lee = 1
Sully = 1
Leandro Barbosa = 0.5 (only to playoff teams)
Fab Melo = 0.5 to 1.0
Jason Collins = none
Kris Joseph = none
Chris Wilcox = none
Brandon Bass = -1.0 (due to contract)

Jeff Green = will swing between two extremes, -2.0 to +2.0, depending on specific team's believe in Jeff Green. I think there will be a small number of teams that still value him as a very good young player to borderline star but many others that see his contract as a large net negative and want nothing to do with him. There won't be much middle ground. It'll mostly be one extreme or the other. The hope with Green is finding one of those teams that rate him highly and hoping they have something good to offer in exchange for him.

Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2012, 05:23:22 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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Rajon Rondo = 3
Avery Bradley = 1.5 to 2.0
Kevin Garnett = 1.5 (only to playoff teams)
Paul Pierce = 1.5 (only to playoff teams)
Jason Terry = 1 (only to playoff teams)
Courtney Lee = 1
Sully = 1
Leandro Barbosa = 0.5 (only to playoff teams)
Fab Melo = 0.5 to 1.0
Jason Collins = none
Kris Joseph = none
Chris Wilcox = none
Brandon Bass = -1.0 (due to contract)

Jeff Green = will swing between two extremes, -2.0 to +2.0, depending on specific team's believe in Jeff Green. I think there will be a small number of teams that still value him as a very good young player to borderline star but many others that see his contract as a large net negative and want nothing to do with him. There won't be much middle ground. It'll mostly be one extreme or the other. The hope with Green is finding one of those teams that rate him highly and hoping they have something good to offer in exchange for him.

Based on the OP's scale, please estimate the TV of Cousins, Gortat, Varejo. 

Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #12 on: December 29, 2012, 05:32:26 PM »

Offline Who

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Rajon Rondo = 3
Avery Bradley = 1.5 to 2.0
Kevin Garnett = 1.5 (only to playoff teams)
Paul Pierce = 1.5 (only to playoff teams)
Jason Terry = 1 (only to playoff teams)
Courtney Lee = 1
Sully = 1
Leandro Barbosa = 0.5 (only to playoff teams)
Fab Melo = 0.5 to 1.0
Jason Collins = none
Kris Joseph = none
Chris Wilcox = none
Brandon Bass = -1.0 (due to contract)

Jeff Green = will swing between two extremes, -2.0 to +2.0, depending on specific team's believe in Jeff Green. I think there will be a small number of teams that still value him as a very good young player to borderline star but many others that see his contract as a large net negative and want nothing to do with him. There won't be much middle ground. It'll mostly be one extreme or the other. The hope with Green is finding one of those teams that rate him highly and hoping they have something good to offer in exchange for him.

Based on the OP's scale, please estimate the TV of Cousins, Gortat, Varejo.
Cousins = 2.5
Gortat = 2.0
Varejao = 2.0

Youth and upside making Cousins more valuable than Gortat + Varejao.

Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #13 on: December 29, 2012, 05:35:27 PM »

Offline CelticHooligan3

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Trade value is a tricky thing.  Who ever would have thought that Orlando would have traded Dwight Howard for Arron Afflalo, Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless, and a handful of draft picks.

Who would have thought that Marc Gasol would be the primary return in a trade for Pau Gasol?

I agree that the chances of the Celts landing an impact all-star are small.  However, never underestimate the stupidity / desperation of an NBA GM.




This right here pretty much sums it all up. It's a crapshoot. Sometimes it makes very little sense. Especially if your the Lakers and need to continue dominating for the next decade.

Re: Let's talk about trade value
« Reply #14 on: December 29, 2012, 05:37:05 PM »

Offline More Banners

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Trading up really has more to do with the seller than the buyer.  It's just hard to find a team willing to part with a star.

Looking at past trades, high picks, star-potential prospects, other picks, and then expiring salary fodder are what it takes in some combination, but you have to find a seller.

I like the Bradley/Sully/Pick package that Danny is able to put together, but there are no expiring contracts to match.  That's a disadvantage.

So I think the highest values are Rondo's (as a current star), then the young guys in Bradley/Sully, then that's pretty much about it.

Assuming keeping Rondo, a trade that involves both Bradley and Sully should be a pretty big one, since we would be shooting our wad in a trade that sent both of them.

I don't really think role players on mid-level long-term deals have any positive value at all, so we're stuck with Lee, Terry, and Bass unless a team will take them as matching salary (along with picks, Bradley and Sully).

And I don't think Pierce or KG get traded.  I just don't.

 

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