Author Topic: This is why Jeff Green's contract is so bad  (Read 14388 times)

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Re: This is why Jeff Green's contract is so bad
« Reply #90 on: December 21, 2012, 04:35:04 PM »

Offline action781

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A $40 mil back-up for PP?

This is what dumb teams do. And why they stink in many cases for decades, not years. Because typically, smart organizations don't ever go where you just went. You sign impact players to big deals, and role players to intelligent short reasonable contracts.... because they're replaceable.

And if you're not really good, let it go -- you're more likely to get good by being bad then you are by being mediocre. 

Only All-stars are worth >mid-level. No Bargnanis. No Ty Thomases. No Villenuevas. For Pete's sake, Barbosa is a better basketball player than Green.

I challenge anyone to suggest what they feel the Celtics would be missing without Green. If the only answer is "a back-up to Pierce", or even worse "a SF once Pierce heads towards retirement", then you know how bad the signing is.

Plenty of non all-stars are worth more than the mid level.  I'll throw out a ton:  Tyson chandler, zach randolph, al jefferson, david west, ibaka, david lee, joakim noah, nic batum, varejao, kevin martin, milsap, ryan anderson, brandon jennings, ty lawson, kyle lowry, gortat, mike conley, carlos boozer, brook lopez, monta ellis,......

Those players would mostly be considered bargains in the 7-12 mil range.  I think the hope in the signing was that jeff green could become that caliber of player and be worth his contract.  So far he has not lived up to that of course, but i think there's still a chance he could be in the lower tier of that caliber player in a year or 2.
Great list of players but I think where you and some other might disagree is whether Jeff Green deserves to be mentioned as being equal quality as those players.

I think those players are on the fringe of being All-Star talent. To me, Jeff Green is on the fringe of having the ability to actually start in the NBA.

There's a fairly decent difference there IMHO.

Agreed. This is a list of players who have reached All-star teams, are starting NBA 5s or DPOY candidates. There are also a number of players either a) making less than Green (including some still on their rookie deals -- not sure why you listed them), or b) who should clearly not make the money you're talking about.

i have no interest in paying Ellis, Lee, Boozer or Batum cornerstone money -- not if i'm trying to win a championship.

Green is clearly a step down from virtually the entire list, and regardless the question remains: what would this team be missing without Jeff Green? Every time the guys scores 15 points -- to go along with his lazy rebounding and poor defense -- there's a new article about him "emerging". It's like a bad joke.
That's the truth.  It's almost comical at this point.

I agree Jeff Green has absolutely not shown that he is the caliber player of those in the list.  What I'm saying is that at the time of the signing, management hoped he had the potential to become the caliber of non all-stars like D. Lee, Ryan Anderson, Millsap, conley, batum who are all pretty worthy of 7-10 m per year.  If Green gets there, I don't think his contract is a bad deal.  He clearly hasn't yet, but I'm not absolutely writing that off yet.

And, "most of them" have not reached all star games nor are DPOY candidates.  I don't know where you are getting that idea from.  Look it up...  And a player who was last an all-star 4 years ago is not an "all-star player".  Unless you think T-Mac and gilbert arenas are all-star players.  The point is that tons of non all-stars are worthy of more than the MLE.
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Re: This is why Jeff Green's contract is so bad
« Reply #91 on: December 21, 2012, 05:02:48 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Not trying to be a troll, but can someone find me one - just one - other team that was interested in Jeff Green this offseason? I know his agent said there were like 10 other teams or something that were interested  - can anyone provide any proof of one of those teams?

  How exactly would you prove a team was interested in Green? And, even if you have no evidence that any other teams had an interest in Green, his contract is fairly indicative that interest existed.

Re: This is why Jeff Green's contract is so bad
« Reply #92 on: December 21, 2012, 05:18:39 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Leandro Barbosa is not a better player than Jeff Green and anybody who suggests otherwise is being flip or doesn't know much about basketball.

In my opinion.
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Re: This is why Jeff Green's contract is so bad
« Reply #93 on: December 21, 2012, 05:31:33 PM »

Offline action781

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Not trying to be a troll, but can someone find me one - just one - other team that was interested in Jeff Green this offseason? I know his agent said there were like 10 other teams or something that were interested  - can anyone provide any proof of one of those teams?

  How exactly would you prove a team was interested in Green? And, even if you have no evidence that any other teams had an interest in Green, his contract is fairly indicative that interest existed.

I agree with this.  http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/sam_amick/06/16/jeff.green/index.html

This article has has the agent saying 12-14 teams were interested.  You can't "prove" that any team really was.  But even if Falk did name a particular team or 2, that still isn't proof that team actually had interest just because he named them.

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Re: This is why Jeff Green's contract is so bad
« Reply #94 on: December 21, 2012, 05:59:36 PM »

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Love Green as a player, I just think he is in a bad situation for his talents. At 9 mil a year for four years on any team where he could be starting and get minutes I think that is very fair. However, with the Celts he isnt going to be as productive because he isnt going to get the minutes he needs to showcase his game. Its just the type of player he is. In result, for the Celtics his contract looks bad for the role he is being asked to play.
You see, this just isn't true. His per 36 minute rates are just about identical now than when he was starting and playing 36 MPG in OKC. All more minutes do is give him proportionally the same stats he always had. And he gets those stats from being really good for stretches of games and then disappearing for stretches of games.

He is the same animal he always was and that animal isn't worth his contract or a starting job on a title contender unless he is a fourth option offensively and doesn't have to be relied upon.

Your point is well made and probably predictive of the Jeff Green of Christmas future.  But I am not convinced that the contract is an albatross. He makes 9M which is about 3-4M more than he should be making IMO.  Not good, but not catastrophic.  If he somehow can consistently score 12-16 PPG at 25 minutes (yes, a new Jeff Green), he still may not be worth 9M in Boston, but I would contend that he'd be a very tradable commodity. He'd need to be packaged with young talent (Bradley or Sullinger) but Green would have value despite his contract.

Re: This is why Jeff Green's contract is so bad
« Reply #95 on: December 21, 2012, 06:10:48 PM »

Offline Geo123

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Leandro Barbosa is not a better player than Jeff Green and anybody who suggests otherwise is being flip or doesn't know much about basketball.

In my opinion.

Agree 100% not even close...

Re: This is why Jeff Green's contract is so bad
« Reply #96 on: December 21, 2012, 06:15:02 PM »

Offline jdz101

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When Jeff Green was on his little 5 to 6 game hot streak 10 days ago, this blog boomed with the "Green needs to start", "Time to sit Pierce", "Free Jeff Green" and al sorts of other ridiculous threads.

When I posted in those threads that Pierce was still, even at 35 years old a better all around player than Jeff Green, that Jeff Green was a passive player that would go through wild ups and downs in consistency and that Jeff Green was simply doing what Jeff Green does, which is play well for a few games and then disappear for a few, a lot of Jeff Green fans jumped all over me and some others who said the same thing.

But here we are after 25 games and Jeff Green is going through his normal roller coaster ride through the season. He started off slow and passive. He was a horrid rebounder who couldn't score and who's defense was just plain bad. Then the ball started dropping some, he played with confidence and played much better for a few games.

But that confidence breeds complacency in Jeff Green and now we see the result. Over his last five games he's been back to the passive, non-rebounding, poor shooting, bad defense Jeff Green. In that time he has shot 34% from the field, 30% from 3PT land, he didn't shoot more than one free throw in 4 of those 5 games and averaged just 8 PPG and 3 RPG in his usual 23 MPG.

$9 million a year, 4 year contracts are given out to performers that will give you a consistent, everyday, effort and production. That has never been Jeff Green's calling card. He's playing exactly like Jeff Green has always played. Its the reason OKC would give him the money he wanted and its why Danny Ainge should have given him a large, you have to earn it, one year deal and not the contract he got.

  And if Green said no, Danny should have let him walk?
Absolutely.

  So who's the backup sf, Joseph or Lee?
Honestly don't remember who was available. If the Celtics weren't committed to Jeff early on my guess is after solidifying the SG position after Ray left, back up SF would have been their next priority.

If you remember our cap position at the time it was either get jeff green with his rights or sign some minimum level floopsy. Pietrus wanted more than minimum level money. I would rather Jeff green than some flog that 29 other teams have rejected. This signing was the right move to try and be competitive at small forward this year.
I would rather have Marquis Daniels at next to nothing than Jeff Green at $9 million a year. Same minutes, almost same stats. $8.1 million a year less.

Ahh the old "this guy is getting these numbers on this team with this coach so he'll do the exact same on our team with our coach" thing. Pretty hard to say that when quisey was here for a couple years and didn't really produce.



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Re: This is why Jeff Green's contract is so bad
« Reply #97 on: December 21, 2012, 06:26:04 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Leandro Barbosa is not a better player than Jeff Green and anybody who suggests otherwise is being flip or doesn't know much about basketball.

In my opinion.

Agree 100% not even close...

And you guys base this on what?

Barbosa has had about 3 or 4 strong games this year and in every other game he has been pretty much invisiable. 

His off / def ratings on NBA.com suggest that he has the second worst offensive rating and the second worst defensive rating on our team - but behind only Jason Collins (who has been am absolute joke on both ends). 

Jeff on the other hand is getting to the point where he's probably had one strong game for every bad game - he's treading that line at about 50/50.  This is not good enough for somoebody making what he is, but it's a hell of a lot better than what Barbosa has given us.

The only thing Barbosa has really done well consistently is run the offense as Rondo's backup - his assist/turnover ration is exceptional and not far off Rondo's not because he gets a ton of assiss, but because he rarely ever turns it over.

Still that certainly does not make him better than Green who has done a decent job at times (though inconsistently) with his rebounding and scoring - not so good a job on defense though...but the stats suggest he's done better than Barbosa in that area too.

 

Re: This is why Jeff Green's contract is so bad
« Reply #98 on: December 21, 2012, 06:32:45 PM »

Offline mctyson

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The guy is paid what he is worth on the market in the NBA.
No.

He is paid what someone is willing to pay him. His worth is determined from his performance and his performance thus far says he was vastly overpaid and not worth the contract.

Um..."He is paid what someone is willing to pay him." is the definition of market value. 

You fail at economics.

Re: This is why Jeff Green's contract is so bad
« Reply #99 on: December 21, 2012, 06:41:29 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Leandro Barbosa is not a better player than Jeff Green and anybody who suggests otherwise is being flip or doesn't know much about basketball.

In my opinion.

Agree 100% not even close...

And you guys base this on what?

Barbosa has had about 3 or 4 strong games this year and in every other game he has been pretty much invisiable. 

His off / def ratings on NBA.com suggest that he has the second worst offensive rating and the second worst defensive rating on our team - but behind only Jason Collins (who has been am absolute joke on both ends). 

Jeff on the other hand is getting to the point where he's probably had one strong game for every bad game - he's treading that line at about 50/50.  This is not good enough for somoebody making what he is, but it's a hell of a lot better than what Barbosa has given us.

The only thing Barbosa has really done well consistently is run the offense as Rondo's backup - his assist/turnover ration is exceptional and not far off Rondo's not because he gets a ton of assiss, but because he rarely ever turns it over.

Still that certainly does not make him better than Green who has done a decent job at times (though inconsistently) with his rebounding and scoring - not so good a job on defense though...but the stats suggest he's done better than Barbosa in that area too.

 

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Re: This is why Jeff Green's contract is so bad
« Reply #100 on: December 21, 2012, 06:43:31 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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The guy is paid what he is worth on the market in the NBA.
No.

He is paid what someone is willing to pay him. His worth is determined from his performance and his performance thus far says he was vastly overpaid and not worth the contract.

Um..."He is paid what someone is willing to pay him." is the definition of market value. 

You fail at economics.

Yeah, 90% of the players in the NBA are "overpaid" given their production and the other 10% are drastically "underpaid."

Value is not the same thing as market value.

Market value is the cost that the market will bear, meaning what somebody is willing to pay. 

We can debate whether or not it was wise of the Celtics to pay Jeff market value, but I think it's safe to assume, especially looking at the other contracts that were handed out this summer, that Jeff's contract is a good representation of what some team would have paid him.
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