OJ Mayo: 21 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, PER 19.73 per game

[RJ87]

I don't think OJ Mayo has broken out. He is just on a hot streak.

His first 2 years in the league, he averaged 18.5ppg I believe as a starter, so its not like he's never played well before. Sometimes a change of scenery is desperately needed.

[Fafnir]

I don't think OJ Mayo has broken out. He is just on a hot streak.

While I am sure his shooting numbers will almost certainly drop from where they are right now, I am not sure they will drop that considerably.  He always has been a talented scorer, and Dallas has been really playing to his strengths.  His peripheral game (rebs, assists, defense) probably won't change much, but I do expect his scoring to settle down into the high teens, as his three point shooting drops closer to his career average (39%).  His assists also might rise, once Dirk returns.

I really think if he is used as a #1 or 2 option on a team, then he can consistently be a 18, 4 and 5 type guy, with solid shooting percentages.

But that's the thing Chris, his 2 point percentage is 46% for his career.

This year its 46% exactly.

The only thing different from this year and last year is 8 more minutes per game and shooting a full 14% better than his career average from three point range. He hasn't even changed his shot selection any, same attempts per minute from the same spots on the court.

[Chris]

I don't think OJ Mayo has broken out. He is just on a hot streak.

While I am sure his shooting numbers will almost certainly drop from where they are right now, I am not sure they will drop that considerably.  He always has been a talented scorer, and Dallas has been really playing to his strengths.  His peripheral game (rebs, assists, defense) probably won't change much, but I do expect his scoring to settle down into the high teens, as his three point shooting drops closer to his career average (39%).  His assists also might rise, once Dirk returns.

I really think if he is used as a #1 or 2 option on a team, then he can consistently be a 18, 4 and 5 type guy, with solid shooting percentages.

But that's the thing Chris, his 2 point percentage is 46% for his career.

This year its 46% exactly.

The only thing different from this year and last year is 8 more minutes per game and shooting a full 14% better than his career average from three point range. He hasn't even changed his shot selection any, same attempts per minute from the same spots on the court.

Right, exactly.  So, his points will drop a little when the 3 pointers are not falling at an obscene rate (sorry, I should have specified 3 point percentage before...I was thinking it, but didn't actually state it), but otherwise, he will continue being the player he has been.  Which is a much better player than he got credit for in Memphis. 

[Fafnir]

I don't think OJ Mayo has broken out. He is just on a hot streak.

While I am sure his shooting numbers will almost certainly drop from where they are right now, I am not sure they will drop that considerably.  He always has been a talented scorer, and Dallas has been really playing to his strengths.  His peripheral game (rebs, assists, defense) probably won't change much, but I do expect his scoring to settle down into the high teens, as his three point shooting drops closer to his career average (39%).  His assists also might rise, once Dirk returns.

I really think if he is used as a #1 or 2 option on a team, then he can consistently be a 18, 4 and 5 type guy, with solid shooting percentages.

But that's the thing Chris, his 2 point percentage is 46% for his career.

This year its 46% exactly.

The only thing different from this year and last year is 8 more minutes per game and shooting a full 14% better than his career average from three point range. He hasn't even changed his shot selection any, same attempts per minute from the same spots on the court.

Right, exactly.  So, his points will drop a little when the 3 pointers are not falling at an obscene rate (sorry, I should have specified 3 point percentage before...I was thinking it, but didn't actually state it), but otherwise, he will continue being the player he has been.  Which is a much better player than he got credit for in Memphis.

Maybe, but if his scoring goes down to a more "normal" TS% what is he? A good scorer who doesn't do much else for you, just like Memphis.

[Chris]

I don't think OJ Mayo has broken out. He is just on a hot streak.

While I am sure his shooting numbers will almost certainly drop from where they are right now, I am not sure they will drop that considerably.  He always has been a talented scorer, and Dallas has been really playing to his strengths.  His peripheral game (rebs, assists, defense) probably won't change much, but I do expect his scoring to settle down into the high teens, as his three point shooting drops closer to his career average (39%).  His assists also might rise, once Dirk returns.

I really think if he is used as a #1 or 2 option on a team, then he can consistently be a 18, 4 and 5 type guy, with solid shooting percentages.

But that's the thing Chris, his 2 point percentage is 46% for his career.

This year its 46% exactly.

The only thing different from this year and last year is 8 more minutes per game and shooting a full 14% better than his career average from three point range. He hasn't even changed his shot selection any, same attempts per minute from the same spots on the court.

Right, exactly.  So, his points will drop a little when the 3 pointers are not falling at an obscene rate (sorry, I should have specified 3 point percentage before...I was thinking it, but didn't actually state it), but otherwise, he will continue being the player he has been.  Which is a much better player than he got credit for in Memphis.

Maybe, but if his scoring goes down to a more "normal" TS% what is he? A good scorer who doesn't do much else for you, just like Memphis.

Except I think he does do more for you.  He is a solid passer, solid defender, and can rebound a decent amount for a guard.  He really is a solid all around player. 

This isn't Marcus Thornton or Jason Terry, or some other volume scorer who brings nothing else to the table.  He is a guy who can compliment his scoring with an all-around game. 

The problem in Memphis, is that they were asking him to compliment his all-around game with his scoring, and that just wasn't working.  They wanted him to be Tony Allen, but with better shooting, and he isn't that. 

As far as a comparison, I would say he is a poor man's Joe Johnson...with the poor man part coming largely due to the lack of size. 

[Fafnir]

I don't think OJ Mayo has broken out. He is just on a hot streak.

While I am sure his shooting numbers will almost certainly drop from where they are right now, I am not sure they will drop that considerably.  He always has been a talented scorer, and Dallas has been really playing to his strengths.  His peripheral game (rebs, assists, defense) probably won't change much, but I do expect his scoring to settle down into the high teens, as his three point shooting drops closer to his career average (39%).  His assists also might rise, once Dirk returns.

I really think if he is used as a #1 or 2 option on a team, then he can consistently be a 18, 4 and 5 type guy, with solid shooting percentages.

But that's the thing Chris, his 2 point percentage is 46% for his career.

This year its 46% exactly.

The only thing different from this year and last year is 8 more minutes per game and shooting a full 14% better than his career average from three point range. He hasn't even changed his shot selection any, same attempts per minute from the same spots on the court.

Right, exactly.  So, his points will drop a little when the 3 pointers are not falling at an obscene rate (sorry, I should have specified 3 point percentage before...I was thinking it, but didn't actually state it), but otherwise, he will continue being the player he has been.  Which is a much better player than he got credit for in Memphis.

Maybe, but if his scoring goes down to a more "normal" TS% what is he? A good scorer who doesn't do much else for you, just like Memphis.

Except I think he does do more for you.  He is a solid passer, solid defender, and can rebound a decent amount for a guard.  He really is a solid all around player. 

This isn't Marcus Thornton or Jason Terry, or some other volume scorer who brings nothing else to the table.  He is a guy who can compliment his scoring with an all-around game. 

The problem in Memphis, is that they were asking him to compliment his all-around game with his scoring, and that just wasn't working.  They wanted him to be Tony Allen, but with better shooting, and he isn't that. 

As far as a comparison, I would say he is a poor man's Joe Johnson...with the poor man part coming largely due to the lack of size.

I don't think his defense/passing/rebounding hold up as well as you do.

30th among SGs Reb% wise, AstRatio 30th, 43 in TO%, and I don't like his defense against most starting SGs.

He's not awful at any of those things, but he's not good at them either.

[gpap]

Does anyone know why the Ray for Mayo trade never went through? I've never heard why

[Fafnir]

Does anyone know why the Ray for Mayo trade never went through? I've never heard why

Supposedly Mayo and his agent killed it, he was a FA after the year and I don't think we wanted him as a rental.

[kozlodoev]

Does anyone know why the Ray for Mayo trade never went through? I've never heard why

Supposedly Mayo and his agent killed it, he was a FA after the year and I don't think we wanted him as a rental.

Mayo didn't want to play in Boston.

[gpap]

Does anyone know why the Ray for Mayo trade never went through? I've never heard why

Supposedly Mayo and his agent killed it, he was a FA after the year and I don't think we wanted him as a rental.

But it's not like the Celtics would've given up much in Ray Allen, who bolted this past summer for Miami.

[gpap]

Does anyone know why the Ray for Mayo trade never went through? I've never heard why

Supposedly Mayo and his agent killed it, he was a FA after the year and I don't think we wanted him as a rental.

Mayo didn't want to play in Boston.

Hmmm...I thought it was up to the team whether or not the player gets traded. Unless the player has a no-trade clause.

[mgent]

His rebounds, assists, shots, FTAs, ToVS, defense, 2 point fg percentage, shots at the rim, percentage at the rim etc. are all pretty much the same as when he couldn't get off the bench all that much Memphis.

The two differences is that he's shooting like Kyle Korver's best year from 3pt range this year and he's hitting more of his free throws.

Kyle Korver shot 53% hitting 1.1 a game.  Mayo's doing that with 2.9 a game.  That's not even close to comparable, he's already hit more than Korver did during that season.  And there's a pretty huge difference in the quality of shots Korver was taking.

He'll average out some, but he's still a career 39% 3pt shooter.  Would have been an almost ideal combo of explosion and lethal shooting beside Rondo.  His passing would make a decent fit off the bench too alongside Bradley.

[Fafnir]

His rebounds, assists, shots, FTAs, ToVS, defense, 2 point fg percentage, shots at the rim, percentage at the rim etc. are all pretty much the same as when he couldn't get off the bench all that much Memphis.

The two differences is that he's shooting like Kyle Korver's best year from 3pt range this year and he's hitting more of his free throws.

Kyle Korver shot 53% hitting 1.1 a game.  Mayo's doing that with 2.9 a game.  That's not even close to comparable, he's already hit more than Korver did during that season.  And there's a pretty huge difference in the quality of shots Korver was taking.

All of which points to the coming regression.

At which point Mayo will be back to being a good scorer, not a great one.

[Fafnir]

Does anyone know why the Ray for Mayo trade never went through? I've never heard why

Supposedly Mayo and his agent killed it, he was a FA after the year and I don't think we wanted him as a rental.

Mayo didn't want to play in Boston.

Hmmm...I thought it was up to the team whether or not the player gets traded. Unless the player has a no-trade clause.

Agents/players have a ton of power.

[mgent]

His rebounds, assists, shots, FTAs, ToVS, defense, 2 point fg percentage, shots at the rim, percentage at the rim etc. are all pretty much the same as when he couldn't get off the bench all that much Memphis.

The two differences is that he's shooting like Kyle Korver's best year from 3pt range this year and he's hitting more of his free throws.

Kyle Korver shot 53% hitting 1.1 a game.  Mayo's doing that with 2.9 a game.  That's not even close to comparable, he's already hit more than Korver did during that season.  And there's a pretty huge difference in the quality of shots Korver was taking.

All of which points to the coming regression.

At which point Mayo will be back to being a good scorer, not a great one.

How does that point to regression, and why would regression matter?  Either way he's an excellent shooter and either way he's an unbelievably better scorer than Kyle Korver.  And with Dirk back the quality of his shots are only going up.  If he ends up with 44% shooting and at least 2 per game, that's STILL more impressive than Korver hitting 1 on 53% shooting.

All you're saying is that he used to be a good player in Memphis, not that he's not a good one now.