Author Topic: Jeff Green vs. James Posey  (Read 1958 times)

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Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« on: December 09, 2012, 04:24:26 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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During tonight's game against the Sixers, Mike Gorman mentioned that Jeff is 8/11 on three pointers in the fourth quarter and overtime so far this season, and that reminded me of James Posey, who in my mind never missed a fourth quarter three during the entire '08 playoff run (maybe a BIT of an exaggeration).

Obviously they are different players, but I think it's fair to say that their roles on the team (at least the ones the team hoped for them to fill) are not THAT different. 

Posey is (rightfully) remembered by many as being a key reserve on that '08 championship team, often finishing games beside KG at the 4 spot.  In an ideal world, Jeff Green would bring that same element to the team as Posey did.  Just by watching the two play, though, it's obvious they are just wired different.  I'm not sure if Jeff will ever play with that kind of swagger, and with that kind of physical defense.  But I thought it would be worthwhile to compare them -- how have Jeff's contributions so far this season compared to Posey?


Jeff Green 2012-2013:

22.1 mpg, 9.4 pts, 3.1 reb, .5 blk, .6 stl
.440 / .364 / .778. 7.9 FGA, 1.7 3PA.

Salary: $8,375,000


James Posey 2007-2008:

24.6 mpg, 7.4 pts, 4.4 reb, 0.3 blk, 1 stl
.418 / .380 / .809.  5.6 FGA, 3.8 3PA.

Salary: $3,206,000


I listed the salaries because, of course, with Jeff that is usually the first thing to springs to people's minds.  He's always going to be judged based on his contract, fairly or not.  What's important to keep in mind here is that although the salary numbers are apart by about $5 million, Posey was playing on a one year make-good kind of deal, and after that season he skipped town to get a big pay-day. 

Over the next four seasons he made an average of $6.5 million.  So I guess you could say the market value for Posey's '08 performance, even four years ago, wasn't that far off from what Green got in his supposedly outrageous deal.  And Posey was 32 when he got that deal.  In today's FA climate, if Posey were 26, who knows what his market value might be.


Because really, the box-score production isn't that different.  Posey was a better rebounder, but Green is clearly the more productive scorer -- despite the fact that he takes less than half as many threes (though perhaps he ought to take more corner threes, which was Posey's specialty).  The difference, though, like I said, lies in the intangibles and defense.  Posey brought something to the team that can't be measured by statistics.  I'm not sure that Jeff does.  Maybe the stoicism is just his way of staying focused, but it often seems like for large stretches of the game Jeff doesn't get that psyched up. 

Jeff doesn't seem to relish playing physical, dirty defense the way Posey did, but he does seem to get almost one spectacular block a game, and he also doesn't shy away from contact when he's attacking the rim.

In any case, Jeff doesn't look too bad in this comparison, which I think should help get some people off of his case, because I think his stoic demeanor and his somewhat inflated salary figure make people judge him more harshly than is warranted, in my opinion.  That combined with the fact that he was traded for a fan favorite often leads people to look for any excuse to dismiss him.  But he's perhaps not that far off from one of the guys who lives large and beloved in the memories of many fans in the wake of that '08 championship run.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2012, 04:30:25 AM by PhoSita »
Quote from: BBallTim
Parker isn't going to score 30 ppg and rebuilds generally take longer than 1 year. Relax.

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2012, 05:38:26 AM »

Offline lightspeed5

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jeff is our posey, plain and simple.

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2012, 05:53:23 AM »

Offline bfrombleacher

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TP

JG brought nasty tonight but he's still Mr. Nice. He's a match up nightmare when put next to Pierce and Garnett though.

Very similar stats but very different players. Love both.

AB will bring the toughness, though. No worries.

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2012, 07:12:24 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Put on the brakes folks, Posey had mental toughness in spades and was a dominant defender.   I think Green has more potential than Posey but he doesn't come in a change the whole team's attitude like James did.

Posey had leadership, clutch shots and toughness.  Jeff has athletic ability and versatility.  They both can guard several spots but in any adversity I'd give the edge to Posey.   Posey really didn't vanish from one game to the next, Green does, he found some way to contribute.

That being said the ceiling for Green is much higher than Posey but I think he lacks the mental toughness.

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2012, 07:15:11 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Ah, the legend of James Posey... vastly exaggerated.

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2012, 07:19:04 AM »

Offline The Fawb

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in his stint in boston, James Posey had a .199 WP/48, with 7.6 wins produced. Which was his average the years before that. JG has a .022 WP/48 (which is horrible btw). The most wins JG has ever produced his entire career was 2.5 WP, and that was with starter minutes in OKC. Jeff green has sadly never been a good player. Here are my sources.
http://www.thenbageek.com/players/118-james-posey
http://www.thenbageek.com/players/13-jeff-green

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2012, 07:53:14 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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in his stint in boston, James Posey had a .199 WP/48, with 7.6 wins produced. Which was his average the years before that. JG has a .022 WP/48 (which is horrible btw). The most wins JG has ever produced his entire career was 2.5 WP, and that was with starter minutes in OKC. Jeff green has sadly never been a good player. Here are my sources.
http://www.thenbageek.com/players/118-james-posey
http://www.thenbageek.com/players/13-jeff-green

Yes, I am aware of the huge disparity in their WS / WP stats.  I'm not really sure how those stats are generated, though, so I didn't include them.  I'm sure part of it is tied to their offensive and defensive ratings -- which are terrible for Jeff so far this year.  The Celtics are a lot worse defensively with him on the floor.
Quote from: BBallTim
Parker isn't going to score 30 ppg and rebuilds generally take longer than 1 year. Relax.

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2012, 08:01:03 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Ah, the legend of James Posey... vastly exaggerated.

James Posey was not a all star but he had leadership.   Kind of a Big Shot Bob Lite.   Guys won several rings in a lot of places.

Green will be the more productive player, but in terms of impacting games especially big ones I give the nod to Posey.  DJ is another who always stepped it on big games some guys do some guys don't.  Posey could.

Tough as nails, he won a ring in MIA too.

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2012, 08:20:22 AM »

Offline celtics2

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I'll take Posey any day. He's a big time big game changer.

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #9 on: December 09, 2012, 08:37:13 AM »

Offline The Fawb

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in his stint in boston, James Posey had a .199 WP/48, with 7.6 wins produced. Which was his average the years before that. JG has a .022 WP/48 (which is horrible btw). The most wins JG has ever produced his entire career was 2.5 WP, and that was with starter minutes in OKC. Jeff green has sadly never been a good player. Here are my sources.
http://www.thenbageek.com/players/118-james-posey
http://www.thenbageek.com/players/13-jeff-green

Yes, I am aware of the huge disparity in their WS / WP stats.  I'm not really sure how those stats are generated, though, so I didn't include them.  I'm sure part of it is tied to their offensive and defensive ratings -- which are terrible for Jeff so far this year.  The Celtics are a lot worse defensively with him on the floor.
a good place to go to start understanding WP is www.wagesofwins.com .The contributors there to a good job of putting players and stats into perspective. Wins Produced is the single most accurate stat to correlate to actual wins in the NBA. It uses their full stat line (much like PER or EFF) but gives more value to high shooting percentage, rebounding, and turnovers (things that have a higher correlation to winning games). Very interesting how it's calculated. Very complex but it does make sense. Like I said, when you start to think about basketball from the advanced stats metrics, players kind of stop letting you down or surprising you as much because you see who really is a great player and who isn't. Also there's a lot of Kobe hate on that site (because he is very average in actuality, just takes too many shots)

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2012, 09:00:20 AM »

Offline scaryjerry

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Ah, the legend of James Posey... vastly exaggerated.


Mmmm not really. Key role player in the only championship in 20 plus years and without him they come up a bit short...deal with it. Legend no.

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #11 on: December 09, 2012, 09:35:49 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Ah, the legend of James Posey... vastly exaggerated.


Mmmm not really. Key role player in the only championship in 20 plus years and without him they come up a bit short...deal with it. Legend no.

If those were the only accolades people would place on him, I'd have no problem with it.

But he wasn't infallible, lest we forget how often we gave away leads in the 4th partly because our defense deteriorated with him playing PF (a tactic that work against the Lakers though). He was part of the Doc fascination with small ball.

Or we forget his poor performance in the Piston's series on both sides of the floor... though he was effective in the little time he spent guarding Billups.

We forget that until the last game of the series, he was very ineffective guarding Kobe (which took a lot of team effort to do so on that day). He was very good against Odom though.

We forget how after the first couple of games in the series against the Cavs, he could no longer guard LeBron James. Yes, we're talking about LeBron a big talent, but because he could no longer contain him we had to rely on Pierce constantly when Posey role on this team was precisely to keep players like him in check so that Pierce didn't have to. Posey completely disappeared after 3 games.

And ultimately he was a limited offensive player for us, who thankfully hit those corner 3s when we needed it.

I loved Posey, but I don't think we need to be carried away with what he did in our championship run, and certainly a great leader in that squad, and gave us some good toughness and edge. He helped us win some key games, and for that I'll appreciate the heck out of him. But he had his faults, he had his down games, and he certainly had some games where the effort wasn't there like we'd like to see. So yes, he disappeared on occasions, yes he hurt us by being on the floor plenty of times, but we persevered.

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #12 on: December 09, 2012, 09:42:43 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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in his stint in boston, James Posey had a .199 WP/48, with 7.6 wins produced. Which was his average the years before that. JG has a .022 WP/48 (which is horrible btw). The most wins JG has ever produced his entire career was 2.5 WP, and that was with starter minutes in OKC. Jeff green has sadly never been a good player. Here are my sources.
http://www.thenbageek.com/players/118-james-posey
http://www.thenbageek.com/players/13-jeff-green

Yes, I am aware of the huge disparity in their WS / WP stats.  I'm not really sure how those stats are generated, though, so I didn't include them.  I'm sure part of it is tied to their offensive and defensive ratings -- which are terrible for Jeff so far this year.  The Celtics are a lot worse defensively with him on the floor.
a good place to go to start understanding WP is www.wagesofwins.com .The contributors there to a good job of putting players and stats into perspective. Wins Produced is the single most accurate stat to correlate to actual wins in the NBA. It uses their full stat line (much like PER or EFF) but gives more value to high shooting percentage, rebounding, and turnovers (things that have a higher correlation to winning games). Very interesting how it's calculated. Very complex but it does make sense. Like I said, when you start to think about basketball from the advanced stats metrics, players kind of stop letting you down or surprising you as much because you see who really is a great player and who isn't. Also there's a lot of Kobe hate on that site (because he is very average in actuality, just takes too many shots)

I've read Wages of Wins a bit.  I like their analysis, and they do seem to have a useful perspective, but I think there are limitations, too, which they don't always seem to recognize.

Like PER, my feeling with Win Shares / Wins Produced is that it almost always gets things right when it shows a player is valuable -- i.e. if a player has a high PER or high WP / WS, it means they are productive and useful, although it doesn't account for their role or whether they need their minutes limited to be effective.

But I'm not always convinced that when a player has a low PER or low WS / WP that it is necessarily a fair indictment of a player's impact or value.
Quote from: BBallTim
Parker isn't going to score 30 ppg and rebuilds generally take longer than 1 year. Relax.

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #13 on: December 09, 2012, 09:48:18 AM »

Offline moiso

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Put on the brakes folks, Posey had mental toughness in spades and was a dominant defender.   I think Green has more potential than Posey but he doesn't come in a change the whole team's attitude like James did.

Posey had leadership, clutch shots and toughness.  Jeff has athletic ability and versatility.  They both can guard several spots but in any adversity I'd give the edge to Posey.   Posey really didn't vanish from one game to the next, Green does, he found some way to contribute.

That being said the ceiling for Green is much higher than Posey but I think he lacks the mental toughness.
TP.

Re: Jeff Green vs. James Posey
« Reply #14 on: December 09, 2012, 10:16:49 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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Green is figuring it out.  It is taking longer than it should but he is getting there.  I suspect by the end of this year he will contribute more than Posey did statistically but he will do it more quietly.  We don't need Green to be a "leader" and I am not sure we needed Posey to be a leader either.  We have plenty of leadership.  We need consistent on-court production from Greeen in the basic categories; points, rebounds, defense.

I also will say that I don't like him sitting in the corner waiting for a 3 pt shot.  I would rather see him closer to the basket so he can set picks, rebound, and just in general be more active and more spontaneous.  It seems to me the more he stands in the corner, the more he kind of goes to sleep.  Keep him active, keep him moving.

 

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