Author Topic: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good  (Read 10290 times)

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Offline IndeedProceed

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #120 on: November 08, 2012, 10:14:11 PM »
Just saw Nate silver on the daily show.  I apologize to all the I have offended accusing him of being partisan.  He is just a straight up nerd, I think he probably gets excited the closer the polls are.
Still think he's only as good as he is because the Obama campaign spoon-feeds him their magic polling data?
And what about the Romney magic polling data that had him gaining momentum and winning even though most polls showed otherwise?

Was listening to Obama's campaign polling data cheating or was it just verifying what his own numbers told him?  Because he could have gone to the Romney campaign and asked for their numbers to see why they were making the claims they were. Heck, maybe he did go to the Romney campaign and ask how they were getting their numbers. We don't know. Maybe after reviewing those numbers he got, Silver just said, "I'm glad Obama is using real mathematicians to run their numbers and not partisan doofs" and decided to stick with what he was predicting.

Personally, I don't care. But studying math, I know you have to look at all possible numbers and recheck your formulations and deductions and then present your methodology to back up your numbers. Silver has done that. getting Obama's numbers only means he was doing his job.

But silver isn't a pollster he doesn't contribute any data he just compiles.  If he is compiling better inside date in key swing states he surely will have better results.  Also I think republican pollsters had Romney up in key stars but I'm not sure that Romney believed he was up

I think you're over and under estimating Silver. Other statisticians had their own formulas and came to similar results. They just didn't work for the NYT and for whatever reason, didn't get the same lightening rod treatment Silver did. In that regard you're overestimating Silver, because he isn't unique. He is one of..maybe not many, but at least others.

You're underestimating him by throwing the Obama numbers in there. I see three reasons why it's not relevant. 1) others reached the same or similar conclusions, 2) there isn't a solid piece of proof that he had the President's 'secret' polling numbers (if I'm wrong here or missed the proof, apologies), and 3) if he did have them, and did use them, he made the leap of faith of trusting them. Mitt Romney had his own polling numbers that were clearly slanted and doctored, why wouldn't he assume there was a good chance the President's numbers weren't also slanted?

And finally, I think you're underestimating him because he is really really good at what he does, which is use existing data to project possible outcomes. He did it with baseball before, he did it here.

Aft 2008, when silver made his name, an Obama campaign worker released the info that silver received all the Obama polling information under an NDA

Was this ever corroborated by Silver? It seems to be potentially in direct contrast with his own methodology.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/

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Offline IndeedProceed

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #121 on: November 08, 2012, 10:15:13 PM »
Also has he ever said he used the polling numbers in his predictive models?

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Offline Rondo2287

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #122 on: November 08, 2012, 10:22:58 PM »
Also has he ever said he used the polling numbers in his predictive models?

He couldn't cause of the NDA
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Offline foulweatherfan

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #123 on: November 08, 2012, 10:23:03 PM »
Conservatives seem to have this weird form of Platonic realism when dealing with political facts.  They believe they have derived the ideal forms of reality through logic and reason.  Anything deviating from those forms must be imperfect and flawed.  Thus, any poll that doesn't conform to the obvious fact that Romney should be ahead must be flawed.  Global warming can't possibly be happening, or at least not happening due to controllable man-made factors, because that would conflict with the ideal form of dirty hippies always being wrong.

I won't touch the broader argument with a ten-foot pole, but the parallels between the 538 backlash and climate change denial were always pretty striking. 


BTW I just read that Sean Hannity has suddenly come out in favor of amnesty for illegal immigrants.  Not that there's any reason to care about Hannity's opinions for their own sake, but he's by all accounts very dialed-in to the current GOP strategies.  This seems to just about seal it - the pivot is coming, and it's coming fast.  It sounds like they'll try and tie it in with a major border overhaul, but it looks likely the Republicans will be pushing an amnesty bill soon.

Offline IndeedProceed

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #124 on: November 08, 2012, 10:30:04 PM »
Also has he ever said he used the polling numbers in his predictive models?

He couldn't cause of the NDA

So has any major news outlet ever even verified this happened, or that it affected his predictive models at all in 2008 or 2012?

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Offline JSD

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #125 on: November 08, 2012, 10:51:23 PM »
Fellow Republicans, we should not succumb to the pressures of viewing people in groups going forward. I hear a lot of talk about needing to cater to the "latino vote" or "gay rights" ect. It's a collectivist mindset that will only lead to problems. Instead, going forward, we should emphasize individual rights. That is the message that will resonate with folks.

Offline JSD

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #126 on: November 08, 2012, 11:03:19 PM »
Rights do not come to us in groups they come to us as individuals.

Offline Celtics18

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #127 on: November 08, 2012, 11:05:25 PM »
An ironic twist for those from the Christian right is that many of the people who helped Barack Obama to win the Presidency and get re-elected were those from the Christian left.

I thought everyone ought to know that whether we profess ourselves as Christians or not, those of us one the left are not anti-Christian or anti-Christian values.   
« Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 11:18:11 PM by Celtics18 »
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Offline Brendan

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #128 on: November 08, 2012, 11:11:02 PM »
Also has he ever said he used the polling numbers in his predictive models?

He couldn't cause of the NDA

So has any major news outlet ever even verified this happened, or that it affected his predictive models at all in 2008 or 2012?
Pretty sure this was confirmed.

FWIW - real clear politics running average of polls predicted electoral college 49/50.

Nate Silver is good, his work in baseball is very good. But 538 hasn't yet shown to be much better than the RCP avg. And it was worse and late to the game for the 2010 upset.

Offline IndeedProceed

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #129 on: November 08, 2012, 11:19:24 PM »
From what others have said, he actually did pretty well in 2010, aside from some very bad speculation early in the season.

If it was confirmed, I can't find it aside from places like redstate.

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Offline Brendan

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #130 on: November 08, 2012, 11:22:56 PM »
From what others have said, he actually did pretty well in 2010, aside from some very bad speculation early in the season.

If it was confirmed, I can't find it aside from places like redstate.

MoeLane is pretty reliable. When it first broke it was widely agreed to, never saw it challenged. He didn't do well in 2010. First early on missed the wave, later he had republicans winning everything, even Harry Reid being knocked off.

Offline IndeedProceed

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #131 on: November 08, 2012, 11:24:31 PM »
Fellow Republicans, we should not succumb to the pressures of viewing people in groups going forward. I hear a lot of talk about needing to cater to the "latino vote" or "gay rights" ect. It's a collectivist mindset that will only lead to problems. Instead, going forward, we should emphasize individual rights. That is the message that will resonate with folks.

Rights do not come to us in groups they come to us as individuals.

Sounds like a stump speech. You got something you need to announce, JSD?

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Offline IndeedProceed

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #132 on: November 08, 2012, 11:29:49 PM »
From what others have said, he actually did pretty well in 2010, aside from some very bad speculation early in the season.

If it was confirmed, I can't find it aside from places like redstate.

MoeLane is pretty reliable. When it first broke it was widely agreed to, never saw it challenged. He didn't do well in 2010. First early on missed the wave, later he had republicans winning everything, even Harry Reid being knocked off.

But no major news outlet even broke the news? I have a hard time imagining CNN or any of the other multitude of competitors for 'most trusted analysis' letting that tidbit float by without comment at least.

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Offline foulweatherfan

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #133 on: November 08, 2012, 11:32:49 PM »
From what others have said, he actually did pretty well in 2010, aside from some very bad speculation early in the season.

If it was confirmed, I can't find it aside from places like redstate.

He had access to the polls, but they weren't part of the model - all of the polls used were listed on the site.

If he was lying and used unlisted material, it didn't do much, because it's not hard to mock-up a model that makes very similar (though not identical) predictions.  There are some unique wrinkles, but the model isn't reinventing the wheel, its biggest principles are very simple.  Which is why all the sound and fury around it was so silly to begin with.

Good read: Boston.com stats blogger looks at the margin of error on 538's predictions.  It's a smart way to assess the model, but after publishing his findings that the model was actually weaker than expected, he realizes he did the analysis wrong and the model was pretty much exactly as accurate as the MOE would predict.  Funny stuff.

Offline Brendan

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #134 on: November 08, 2012, 11:38:09 PM »
I believe he was working on model in 08. He was using the Obama stuff to calibrate the model. That's just what I recall. Bottom line is over three elections he hasn't out performed the RCP average.

Also a different numbers guy on the GOP's problem: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/08/the_case_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106.html


 

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