Author Topic: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good  (Read 28164 times)

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #135 on: November 09, 2012, 12:04:42 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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I believe he was working on model in 08. He was using the Obama stuff to calibrate the model. That's just what I recall.

Interesting - I thought the idea was that Silver had more data to plug into the model, which made the polling predictions more accurate.  This is a take I haven't seen before.

In terms of setting parameters, access to internal polls wouldn't help with factors like historical accuracy or house effect, but it could aid with things like state demographics.  That is possible, although Silver's never said so - if so I'd say that's kind of an unfair advantage relative to other models, but not really a critique of the model's validity, since the data were clearly beneficial to its accuracy.

Bottom line is over three elections he hasn't out performed the RCP average.

On a yes/no states and races prediction basis Silver has been only slightly better - which makes perfect sense, it would be a very rare case where the polls pointed one way and an aggregation model the other.   

But on the vote margin predictions he's head and shoulders better.  His overall error is lower, and 96% of this cycle's state margins were within Silver's 95% confidence interval.  Another fairly major example - RCP has the popular vote at O +.7, 538 has O +2.5.  Actual margin is O +2.5.  The bulk of what 538 does is poll aggregation for sure, but there is substantial added value there.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2012, 12:16:46 AM by fairweatherfan »

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #136 on: November 09, 2012, 01:03:24 AM »

Offline KGs Knee

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Fellow Republicans, we should not succumb to the pressures of viewing people in groups going forward. I hear a lot of talk about needing to cater to the "latino vote" or "gay rights" ect. It's a collectivist mindset that will only lead to problems. Instead, going forward, we should emphasize individual rights. That is the message that will resonate with folks.

Rights do not come to us in groups they come to us as individuals.

Sounds like a stump speech. You got something you need to announce, JSD?

You got my vote 8)

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #137 on: November 09, 2012, 07:12:22 AM »

Offline Cman

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I believe he was working on model in 08. He was using the Obama stuff to calibrate the model. That's just what I recall. Bottom line is over three elections he hasn't out performed the RCP average.



Sure he has. This year he correctly predicted FL where RCP did not.

Edit fwf replied w much more detail.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2012, 07:27:37 AM by Cman »
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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #138 on: November 09, 2012, 08:18:27 AM »

Offline Brendan

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I believe he was working on model in 08. He was using the Obama stuff to calibrate the model. That's just what I recall. Bottom line is over three elections he hasn't out performed the RCP average.



Sure he has. This year he correctly predicted FL where RCP did not.

Edit fwf replied w much more detail.
I'm actually a fan of his, so I'm not going down the path of arguing that he's bad. IMO given 2008, 2010, and 2012 - the RCP averages (which cost basically 0 to do) are pretty close to outcomes as his is. Silver is more of a side show in analytics. The real big data operation is behind the scenes of the campaigns.

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #139 on: November 09, 2012, 08:23:08 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Nate Silver nailed it, I actually thought one side was lying or wrong about their data.  No one wants to appear losing as it cut cause peeps not to vote.

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #140 on: November 09, 2012, 08:29:21 AM »

Offline Rondo2287

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From what others have said, he actually did pretty well in 2010, aside from some very bad speculation early in the season.

If it was confirmed, I can't find it aside from places like redstate.

MoeLane is pretty reliable. When it first broke it was widely agreed to, never saw it challenged. He didn't do well in 2010. First early on missed the wave, later he had republicans winning everything, even Harry Reid being knocked off.

But no major news outlet even broke the news? I have a hard time imagining CNN or any of the other multitude of competitors for 'most trusted analysis' letting that tidbit float by without comment at least.

With all the stuff that gets ignored by the mainstream media this doesn't surprise me at all. Especially one of their own in the print media which needs all the help it can get.  His work has made the NYT significantly more relevant, they would do everything they can to protect him.
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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #141 on: November 09, 2012, 09:25:14 AM »

Offline Cman

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I believe he was working on model in 08. He was using the Obama stuff to calibrate the model. That's just what I recall. Bottom line is over three elections he hasn't out performed the RCP average.



Sure he has. This year he correctly predicted FL where RCP did not.

Edit fwf replied w much more detail.
I'm actually a fan of his, so I'm not going down the path of arguing that he's bad. IMO given 2008, 2010, and 2012 - the RCP averages (which cost basically 0 to do) are pretty close to outcomes as his is. Silver is more of a side show in analytics. The real big data operation is behind the scenes of the campaigns.

Got it.
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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #142 on: November 09, 2012, 09:47:59 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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I believe he was working on model in 08. He was using the Obama stuff to calibrate the model. That's just what I recall. Bottom line is over three elections he hasn't out performed the RCP average.



Sure he has. This year he correctly predicted FL where RCP did not.

Edit fwf replied w much more detail.
I'm actually a fan of his, so I'm not going down the path of arguing that he's bad. IMO given 2008, 2010, and 2012 - the RCP averages (which cost basically 0 to do) are pretty close to outcomes as his is. Silver is more of a side show in analytics. The real big data operation is behind the scenes of the campaigns.

Totally agree with this.  One of my favorite things about election night is the campaign people speaking frankly about all the behind-the-scenes analysis that's going on.  It's staggeringly detailed and dense.  Pundits may not believe in data but campaign managers sure do.

On the other hand, it's being reported that Romney's people fell into the trap of weighting his internal polls by the party representation and turnout they thought (hoped?) he'd get, instead of trusting their samples to be accurate.  So systemic mistakes still do happen at that level.

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #143 on: November 09, 2012, 10:34:14 AM »

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On the other hand, it's being reported that Romney's people fell into the trap of weighting his internal polls by the party representation and turnout they thought (hoped?) he'd get, instead of trusting their samples to be accurate.  So systemic mistakes still do happen at that level.
Or as a very cute Fox announcer asked Karl Rove on election night: Is that just math they do as Republicans to make themselves feel better?

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #144 on: November 09, 2012, 10:55:22 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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On the other hand, it's being reported that Romney's people fell into the trap of weighting his internal polls by the party representation and turnout they thought (hoped?) he'd get, instead of trusting their samples to be accurate.  So systemic mistakes still do happen at that level.
Or as a very cute Fox announcer asked Karl Rove on election night: Is that just math they do as Republicans to make themselves feel better?

Watching Rove late on Tuesday night was priceless.  Entertaining stuff.


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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #145 on: November 09, 2012, 11:29:16 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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On the other hand, it's being reported that Romney's people fell into the trap of weighting his internal polls by the party representation and turnout they thought (hoped?) he'd get, instead of trusting their samples to be accurate.  So systemic mistakes still do happen at that level.
Or as a very cute Fox announcer asked Karl Rove on election night: Is that just math they do as Republicans to make themselves feel better?

At the individual level, absolutely.  Always easier to declare the data phony than to question why your positions aren't as popular as you'd thought.

But the fact that the guys being paid to get it right were making the same foolish mistake is stunning.  They were so sure the random sample polls must be skewed that they went ahead and skewed their own polls in response, and it appears it led to the campaign completely misunderstanding their position and chances of victory.

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #146 on: November 09, 2012, 11:59:01 AM »

Offline BballTim

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On the other hand, it's being reported that Romney's people fell into the trap of weighting his internal polls by the party representation and turnout they thought (hoped?) he'd get, instead of trusting their samples to be accurate.  So systemic mistakes still do happen at that level.
Or as a very cute Fox announcer asked Karl Rove on election night: Is that just math they do as Republicans to make themselves feel better?

  The democrats are obviously no different when they lose. I still remember Lloyd Bentson saying that they still had a chance in Texas (a state they lost by double digits) because the polls were still open in the western edge of the state.

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #147 on: November 09, 2012, 12:02:33 PM »

Offline Interceptor

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The democrats are obviously no different when they lose. I still remember Lloyd Bentson saying that they still had a chance in Texas (a state they lost by double digits) because the polls were still open in the western edge of the state.
I guess that word means different things to different people. It's much less defensible to be so wrong these days, when it's so easy to be right because of the accuracy of the available data. While Rove was foaming at the mouth, I remember Chuck Todd very patiently explaining why NBC called Ohio when they did.

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #148 on: November 09, 2012, 12:16:45 PM »

Offline angryguy77

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The GOP should let the Democrats do whatever they want and sign off on all of Obama's economic propositions.

When we collapse, conservatism won't be to blame. 

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #149 on: November 09, 2012, 12:17:31 PM »

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On the other hand, it's being reported that Romney's people fell into the trap of weighting his internal polls by the party representation and turnout they thought (hoped?) he'd get, instead of trusting their samples to be accurate.  So systemic mistakes still do happen at that level.
Or as a very cute Fox announcer asked Karl Rove on election night: Is that just math they do as Republicans to make themselves feel better?

  The democrats are obviously no different when they lose. I still remember Lloyd Bentson saying that they still had a chance in Texas (a state they lost by double digits) because the polls were still open in the western edge of the state.
Hey, I'm not the one that said that to Karl Rove, it was a Fox News anchor. Your problem is with her.