Author Topic: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good  (Read 27621 times)

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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #105 on: November 08, 2012, 08:38:27 PM »

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I think most people would consider me a firm Democrat and an atheist, though in truth I am more of a deist. That said, my family values are strong and my family unit is strong and it has nothing whatsoever to do with religion.

Today's family is as strong and moral as you make it and it has nothing to due with religion but good parenting and a dedication to husband and wife as a unit, loving, compromising, sacrificing and working hard to be together and the best husband, wife, father and mother that you can be.

Religion is one way to attain those morals but increasingly, religion is not growing with the times or dealing with the intricacies of technology and new knowledge that can put into question some of the teachings of religion.

All that said, I think family values are what you make them, regardless of religious belief and more and more religion will dissipate as a function within the American family. I don't think a lack of religion has caused the breakdown of the American family. I think it is the breakdown of commitment to a life long partner that is killing the American family. Not sure a lack of religion has anything to do with that. I think it has more to do with a selfish, greedy, "me" first attitude that in a lot of ways is promoted through the American business culture.

Very interesting thoughts, Nick (as usual).

While I personally don't even necessarily think that the breakdown of life long partner is in and of itself contributory to some sort of decline of america, that issue will have to wait.

I think a lot of people see divorce and equate it with a general decline of values, and they get angry about it. I think it's fascinating to consider how increased access to divorce, especially increased ability of women to initiate divorce, led to increased divorce...and a lot of times this gets twisted into woman-hate, because it seems to be a causal deviation from some mythic "good old days," but to me it's more amazing that clearly this increased freedom of women leading to increased divorce is a screaming indicator of just how incredibly awful the status quo of "the good old days" was for a tremendous number of women.

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #106 on: November 08, 2012, 08:40:50 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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They had to lie about the momentum otherwise, it would have been worse.  I think he got a small bounce after the first debate but after that Romney didn't win any.

Of course, peeps will thing nothing is wrong and blame this on a hurricane, not realizing that the country's electorate has changed.   This mentality will cause issues but it's better to cast blame than take responsibility.  How about Rove who had a meltdown on FOX.   Some people live in a seperate reality.

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #107 on: November 08, 2012, 08:51:43 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I think most people would consider me a firm Democrat and an atheist, though in truth I am more of a deist. That said, my family values are strong and my family unit is strong and it has nothing whatsoever to do with religion.

Today's family is as strong and moral as you make it and it has nothing to due with religion but good parenting and a dedication to husband and wife as a unit, loving, compromising, sacrificing and working hard to be together and the best husband, wife, father and mother that you can be.

Religion is one way to attain those morals but increasingly, religion is not growing with the times or dealing with the intricacies of technology and new knowledge that can put into question some of the teachings of religion.

All that said, I think family values are what you make them, regardless of religious belief and more and more religion will dissipate as a function within the American family. I don't think a lack of religion has caused the breakdown of the American family. I think it is the breakdown of commitment to a life long partner that is killing the American family. Not sure a lack of religion has anything to do with that. I think it has more to do with a selfish, greedy, "me" first attitude that in a lot of ways is promoted through the American business culture.

Very interesting thoughts, Nick (as usual).

While I personally don't even necessarily think that the breakdown of life long partner is in and of itself contributory to some sort of decline of america, that issue will have to wait.

I think a lot of people see divorce and equate it with a general decline of values, and they get angry about it. I think it's fascinating to consider how increased access to divorce, especially increased ability of women to initiate divorce, led to increased divorce...and a lot of times this gets twisted into woman-hate, because it seems to be a causal deviation from some mythic "good old days," but to me it's more amazing that clearly this increased freedom of women leading to increased divorce is a screaming indicator of just how incredibly awful the status quo of "the good old days" was for a tremendous number of women.
Excellent sir, as usual. excellent.

I will say though the breakdown of lifelong partnership is also involved in the sexual revolution which broke down sexual inhibitions and the need for abstinence. Suddenly, playing the field and not creating relationships before sex became the rule not the exception. And when pregnancy happened the responsibility got hoisted, more often than not, on one member of that pairing not two.

I don't think that has anything to do with religion but more to do with poor parenting. My kids are 25, 23, and 18. All boys. But they have been taught about sex, responsibility, consequences, the family unit and the importance of relationships their entire life without the help of religion. They all have gone or are going to college. They have all had girlfriends. They have been taught safe sex since 10 years old. They all want the same thing: a career, a partner and then kids. There's no baby mama drama happening at the Agneta house and no grandkids yet out of wedlock.

I'm not saying that having kids out of wedlock is bad or can't be successful. It just makes life harder and is tougher on the children and my kids believe that. Nothing I have seen from religion has caused children to adhere to the values I taught my children every day. Time and again, religious people get other religious people pregnant out of wedlock, or get divorced or abandon their kids. Its parenting that needs to improve the American relationships and eventually the family unit. Not religion.

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #108 on: November 08, 2012, 08:57:39 PM »

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I think most people would consider me a firm Democrat and an atheist, though in truth I am more of a deist. That said, my family values are strong and my family unit is strong and it has nothing whatsoever to do with religion.

Today's family is as strong and moral as you make it and it has nothing to due with religion but good parenting and a dedication to husband and wife as a unit, loving, compromising, sacrificing and working hard to be together and the best husband, wife, father and mother that you can be.

Religion is one way to attain those morals but increasingly, religion is not growing with the times or dealing with the intricacies of technology and new knowledge that can put into question some of the teachings of religion.

All that said, I think family values are what you make them, regardless of religious belief and more and more religion will dissipate as a function within the American family. I don't think a lack of religion has caused the breakdown of the American family. I think it is the breakdown of commitment to a life long partner that is killing the American family. Not sure a lack of religion has anything to do with that. I think it has more to do with a selfish, greedy, "me" first attitude that in a lot of ways is promoted through the American business culture.

Very interesting thoughts, Nick (as usual).

While I personally don't even necessarily think that the breakdown of life long partner is in and of itself contributory to some sort of decline of america, that issue will have to wait.

I think a lot of people see divorce and equate it with a general decline of values, and they get angry about it. I think it's fascinating to consider how increased access to divorce, especially increased ability of women to initiate divorce, led to increased divorce...and a lot of times this gets twisted into woman-hate, because it seems to be a causal deviation from some mythic "good old days," but to me it's more amazing that clearly this increased freedom of women leading to increased divorce is a screaming indicator of just how incredibly awful the status quo of "the good old days" was for a tremendous number of women.
Excellent sir, as usual. excellent.

I will say though the breakdown of lifelong partnership is also involved in the sexual revolution which broke down sexual inhibitions and the need for abstinence. Suddenly, playing the field and not creating relationships before sex became the rule not the exception. And when pregnancy happened the responsibility got hoisted, more often than not, on one member of that pairing not two.

I don't think that has anything to do with religion but more to do with poor parenting. My kids are 25, 23, and 18. All boys. But they have been taught about sex, responsibility, consequences, the family unit and the importance of relationships their entire life without the help of religion. They all have gone or are going to college. They have all had girlfriends. They have been taught safe sex since 10 years old. They all want the same thing: a career, a partner and then kids. There's no baby mama drama happening at the Agneta house and no grandkids yet out of wedlock.

I'm not saying that having kids out of wedlock is bad or can't be successful. It just makes life harder and is tougher on the children and my kids believe that. Nothing I have seen from religion has caused children to adhere to the values I taught my children every day. Time and again, religious people get other religious people pregnant out of wedlock, or get divorced or abandon their kids. Its parenting that needs to improve the American relationships and eventually the family unit. Not religion.

For some reason i had tunnel vision in thinking "marriage - kids - divorce" as what was being addressed and completely forgot to think about the very unequal burden of accidental pregnancies (monetarily, morally-perceived, socially, educationally, professionally, etc) of non-relationshiped (however you define it). Generally speaking, the sexual playing field is still incredibly unequal, and I agree with what you pointed out how the general selfishness and lack of accountability/immediate rewards thinking is so troublesome.

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #109 on: November 08, 2012, 08:59:15 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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The erosion of Judeo-Christian values in our society is 100% the main contributing cause for the slow, but certain demise of our country (and the world for that matter).

Folks can deny it, rationalize it, or what have you, this is just the devil at work.  Ignore this at your own peril.

All of us will one day be held accountable before God, there will be no do-overs.  I pray those who don't believe this to be true find salvation.  I truly mean this in the sincerest manner.

All of this being said, I am just one man, no better than anyone else.  I have come to accept the world I live in.  I others wish to choose the wrong path, I must let it go.   It is not my place to judge others.  So long as the actions of others do not infringe upon my rights and freedoms, have at it.

I do not need worldy laws to guide me down the path to righteousness.

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #110 on: November 08, 2012, 09:06:03 PM »

Offline InfiniteMH

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Folks can deny it, rationalize it, or what have you, this is just the devil at work.  Ignore this at your own peril.


Nice summary of the Republican campaign's message. TP

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #111 on: November 08, 2012, 09:07:25 PM »

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The erosion of Judeo-Christian values in our society is 100% the main contributing cause for the slow, but certain demise of our country (and the world for that matter).

Folks can deny it, rationalize it, or what have you, this is just the devil at work.  Ignore this at your own peril.

All of us will one day be held accountable before God, there will be no do-overs.  I pray those who don't believe this to be true find salvation.  I truly mean this in the sincerest manner.

All of this being said, I am just one man, no better than anyone else.  I have come to accept the world I live in.  I others wish to choose the wrong path, I must let it go.   It is not my place to judge others.  So long as the actions of others do not infringe upon my rights and freedoms, have at it.

I do not need worldy laws to guide me down the path to righteousness.

Obviously I'm not going to change your mind, but I'm curious: when was the peak of society from which we are now declining? Is it a steady decline? Have there been small improvements but a general decline? What have teh improvements been?

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #112 on: November 08, 2012, 09:10:58 PM »

Offline Rondo2287

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Just saw Nate silver on the daily show.  I apologize to all the I have offended accusing him of being partisan.  He is just a straight up nerd, I think he probably gets excited the closer the polls are.
Still think he's only as good as he is because the Obama campaign spoon-feeds him their magic polling data?
And what about the Romney magic polling data that had him gaining momentum and winning even though most polls showed otherwise?

Was listening to Obama's campaign polling data cheating or was it just verifying what his own numbers told him?  Because he could have gone to the Romney campaign and asked for their numbers to see why they were making the claims they were. Heck, maybe he did go to the Romney campaign and ask how they were getting their numbers. We don't know. Maybe after reviewing those numbers he got, Silver just said, "I'm glad Obama is using real mathematicians to run their numbers and not partisan doofs" and decided to stick with what he was predicting.

Personally, I don't care. But studying math, I know you have to look at all possible numbers and recheck your formulations and deductions and then present your methodology to back up your numbers. Silver has done that. getting Obama's numbers only means he was doing his job.

But silver isn't a pollster he doesn't contribute any data he just compiles.  If he is compiling better inside date in key swing states he surely will have better results.  Also I think republican pollsters had Romney up in key stars but I'm not sure that Romney believed he was up
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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #113 on: November 08, 2012, 09:12:28 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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The erosion of Judeo-Christian values in our society is 100% the main contributing cause for the slow, but certain demise of our country (and the world for that matter).

Folks can deny it, rationalize it, or what have you, this is just the devil at work.  Ignore this at your own peril.

All of us will one day be held accountable before God, there will be no do-overs.  I pray those who don't believe this to be true find salvation.  I truly mean this in the sincerest manner.

All of this being said, I am just one man, no better than anyone else.  I have come to accept the world I live in.  I others wish to choose the wrong path, I must let it go.   It is not my place to judge others.  So long as the actions of others do not infringe upon my rights and freedoms, have at it.

I do not need worldy laws to guide me down the path to righteousness.
Makes me wonder how you account for societies that have been around for hundreds and thousands of years that are not Judeo-Christian. How have they thrived?

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #114 on: November 08, 2012, 09:34:31 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Just saw Nate silver on the daily show.  I apologize to all the I have offended accusing him of being partisan.  He is just a straight up nerd, I think he probably gets excited the closer the polls are.
Still think he's only as good as he is because the Obama campaign spoon-feeds him their magic polling data?
And what about the Romney magic polling data that had him gaining momentum and winning even though most polls showed otherwise?

Was listening to Obama's campaign polling data cheating or was it just verifying what his own numbers told him?  Because he could have gone to the Romney campaign and asked for their numbers to see why they were making the claims they were. Heck, maybe he did go to the Romney campaign and ask how they were getting their numbers. We don't know. Maybe after reviewing those numbers he got, Silver just said, "I'm glad Obama is using real mathematicians to run their numbers and not partisan doofs" and decided to stick with what he was predicting.

Personally, I don't care. But studying math, I know you have to look at all possible numbers and recheck your formulations and deductions and then present your methodology to back up your numbers. Silver has done that. getting Obama's numbers only means he was doing his job.

But silver isn't a pollster he doesn't contribute any data he just compiles.  If he is compiling better inside date in key swing states he surely will have better results.  Also I think republican pollsters had Romney up in key stars but I'm not sure that Romney believed he was up
So what you are saying is if Silver also got Romney's numbers, Obama had better pollsters and when Silver was given the info, he agreed with the numbers Obama provided him and decided to publish his findings?

Not sure how that makes Silver partisan, though I know you are now not claiming that. My guess is he got numbers from a whole mess of places. Based on formulas and methodology, a statistician has to decide what are outliers and what fall into the pattern. he decided the numbers he got showed a fairly easy Obama victory and he was correct.

Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #115 on: November 08, 2012, 09:38:57 PM »

Offline Cman

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This is a fascinating thread. It is basically an anything goes, post election thread. I like it.

On Silver, he is one of several poll aggregators, not the only one. He is dimply (simply ! dang u iPhone  ) the most visible.

The thing I find interesting is he basically believed pollsters were doing their job correctly and for the most part took their results at face value. Though he does weight them differently. Republicans by and large didn't take majority of polls at face value believing instead that the polls were systematically overestimating things like party affiliation and turn out. Turns out, they weren't. Again, math wins gut loses.

On that last point, Dan Rather is a goat for his "my gut tells me Romney has a good night " comment.
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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #116 on: November 08, 2012, 09:43:57 PM »

Offline Rondo2287

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Just saw Nate silver on the daily show.  I apologize to all the I have offended accusing him of being partisan.  He is just a straight up nerd, I think he probably gets excited the closer the polls are.
Still think he's only as good as he is because the Obama campaign spoon-feeds him their magic polling data?
And what about the Romney magic polling data that had him gaining momentum and winning even though most polls showed otherwise?

Was listening to Obama's campaign polling data cheating or was it just verifying what his own numbers told him?  Because he could have gone to the Romney campaign and asked for their numbers to see why they were making the claims they were. Heck, maybe he did go to the Romney campaign and ask how they were getting their numbers. We don't know. Maybe after reviewing those numbers he got, Silver just said, "I'm glad Obama is using real mathematicians to run their numbers and not partisan doofs" and decided to stick with what he was predicting.

Personally, I don't care. But studying math, I know you have to look at all possible numbers and recheck your formulations and deductions and then present your methodology to back up your numbers. Silver has done that. getting Obama's numbers only means he was doing his job.

But silver isn't a pollster he doesn't contribute any data he just compiles.  If he is compiling better inside date in key swing states he surely will have better results.  Also I think republican pollsters had Romney up in key stars but I'm not sure that Romney believed he was up
So what you are saying is if Silver also got Romney's numbers, Obama had better pollsters and when Silver was given the info, he agreed with the numbers Obama provided him and decided to publish his findings?

Not sure how that makes Silver partisan, though I know you are now not claiming that. My guess is he got numbers from a whole mess of places. Based on formulas and methodology, a statistician has to decide what are outliers and what fall into the pattern. he decided the numbers he got showed a fairly easy Obama victory and he was correct.

In the last electon silver was given Obama campaigns numbers and didnt disclose that fact due to an NDA.  I doubt we will here for a while where all his data came from.  But models are only as good as their inputs.  I'm agreeing now that he isn't partisan. I think the more challenging the election is to predict the mor excited he would be.
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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #117 on: November 08, 2012, 09:47:13 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Just saw Nate silver on the daily show.  I apologize to all the I have offended accusing him of being partisan.  He is just a straight up nerd, I think he probably gets excited the closer the polls are.
Still think he's only as good as he is because the Obama campaign spoon-feeds him their magic polling data?
And what about the Romney magic polling data that had him gaining momentum and winning even though most polls showed otherwise?

Was listening to Obama's campaign polling data cheating or was it just verifying what his own numbers told him?  Because he could have gone to the Romney campaign and asked for their numbers to see why they were making the claims they were. Heck, maybe he did go to the Romney campaign and ask how they were getting their numbers. We don't know. Maybe after reviewing those numbers he got, Silver just said, "I'm glad Obama is using real mathematicians to run their numbers and not partisan doofs" and decided to stick with what he was predicting.

Personally, I don't care. But studying math, I know you have to look at all possible numbers and recheck your formulations and deductions and then present your methodology to back up your numbers. Silver has done that. getting Obama's numbers only means he was doing his job.

But silver isn't a pollster he doesn't contribute any data he just compiles.  If he is compiling better inside date in key swing states he surely will have better results.  Also I think republican pollsters had Romney up in key stars but I'm not sure that Romney believed he was up

I think you're over and under estimating Silver. Other statisticians had their own formulas and came to similar results. They just didn't work for the NYT and for whatever reason, didn't get the same lightening rod treatment Silver did. In that regard you're overestimating Silver, because he isn't unique. He is one of..maybe not many, but at least others.

You're underestimating him by throwing the Obama numbers in there. I see three reasons why it's not relevant. 1) others reached the same or similar conclusions, 2) there isn't a solid piece of proof that he had the President's 'secret' polling numbers (if I'm wrong here or missed the proof, apologies), and 3) if he did have them, and did use them, he made the leap of faith of trusting them. Mitt Romney had his own polling numbers that were clearly slanted and doctored, why wouldn't he assume there was a good chance the President's numbers weren't also slanted?

And finally, I think you're underestimating him because he is really really good at what he does, which is use existing data to project possible outcomes. He did it with baseball before, he did it here.


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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #118 on: November 08, 2012, 10:01:33 PM »

Offline Rondo2287

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Just saw Nate silver on the daily show.  I apologize to all the I have offended accusing him of being partisan.  He is just a straight up nerd, I think he probably gets excited the closer the polls are.
Still think he's only as good as he is because the Obama campaign spoon-feeds him their magic polling data?
And what about the Romney magic polling data that had him gaining momentum and winning even though most polls showed otherwise?

Was listening to Obama's campaign polling data cheating or was it just verifying what his own numbers told him?  Because he could have gone to the Romney campaign and asked for their numbers to see why they were making the claims they were. Heck, maybe he did go to the Romney campaign and ask how they were getting their numbers. We don't know. Maybe after reviewing those numbers he got, Silver just said, "I'm glad Obama is using real mathematicians to run their numbers and not partisan doofs" and decided to stick with what he was predicting.

Personally, I don't care. But studying math, I know you have to look at all possible numbers and recheck your formulations and deductions and then present your methodology to back up your numbers. Silver has done that. getting Obama's numbers only means he was doing his job.

But silver isn't a pollster he doesn't contribute any data he just compiles.  If he is compiling better inside date in key swing states he surely will have better results.  Also I think republican pollsters had Romney up in key stars but I'm not sure that Romney believed he was up

I think you're over and under estimating Silver. Other statisticians had their own formulas and came to similar results. They just didn't work for the NYT and for whatever reason, didn't get the same lightening rod treatment Silver did. In that regard you're overestimating Silver, because he isn't unique. He is one of..maybe not many, but at least others.

You're underestimating him by throwing the Obama numbers in there. I see three reasons why it's not relevant. 1) others reached the same or similar conclusions, 2) there isn't a solid piece of proof that he had the President's 'secret' polling numbers (if I'm wrong here or missed the proof, apologies), and 3) if he did have them, and did use them, he made the leap of faith of trusting them. Mitt Romney had his own polling numbers that were clearly slanted and doctored, why wouldn't he assume there was a good chance the President's numbers weren't also slanted?

And finally, I think you're underestimating him because he is really really good at what he does, which is use existing data to project possible outcomes. He did it with baseball before, he did it here.

Aft 2008, when silver made his name, an Obama campaign worker released the info that silver received all the Obama polling information under an NDA
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Re: GOP in Deep Trouble, Ron Paul Looking Good
« Reply #119 on: November 08, 2012, 10:02:21 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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The thing I find interesting is he basically believed pollsters were doing their job correctly and for the most part took their results at face value. Though he does weight them differently. Republicans by and large didn't take majority of polls at face value believing instead that the polls were systematically overestimating things like party affiliation and turn out. Turns out, they weren't. Again, math wins gut loses.

Conservatives seem to have this weird form of Platonic realism when dealing with political facts.  They believe they have derived the ideal forms of reality through logic and reason.  Anything deviating from those forms must be imperfect and flawed.  Thus, any poll that doesn't conform to the obvious fact that Romney should be ahead must be flawed.  Global warming can't possibly be happening, or at least not happening due to controllable man-made factors, because that would conflict with the ideal form of dirty hippies always being wrong. 

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