Author Topic: Election day 2012  (Read 31978 times)

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Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #195 on: November 06, 2012, 05:43:23 PM »

Online foulweatherfan

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In other news, I have just noticed that Nate Silver put Warren's chance of winning at 94%. Did I miss Scott Brown punching a baby on television? I thought that the race was considerably closer than this.

Haven't really followed that race (not in MA) but it looks like the reasons are:

- Lots of polling, more than almost any other Senate race
- Brown leads or is tied in a few polls, but Warren leads in most
- Warren's poll leads are bigger than Brown's, and Brown doesn't break 50% in any poll
- Massachusetts is generally a solid blue state

Does seem a bit high though, especially since Brown's better results tend to be more recent.

Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #196 on: November 06, 2012, 05:50:50 PM »

Offline Rondo2287

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In other news, I have just noticed that Nate Silver put Warren's chance of winning at 94%. Did I miss Scott Brown punching a baby on television? I thought that the race was considerably closer than this.

Haven't really followed that race (not in MA) but it looks like the reasons are:

- Lots of polling, more than almost any other Senate race
- Brown leads or is tied in a few polls, but Warren leads in most
- Warren's poll leads are bigger than Brown's, and Brown doesn't break 50% in any poll
- Massachusetts is generally a solid blue state

Does seem a bit high though, especially since Brown's better results tend to be more recent.

Also Consider that Brown won his seat in a non-presidential election year so now they are expecting a third more people to actually vote.  A real shame, pretty terrible that MA would vote such a horrible person into office, regardless of her political stances.  But I guess it is Ted Kenedy's former seat so its fitting. 
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Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #197 on: November 06, 2012, 05:55:37 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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Anyways, my prediction.

Been saying over a year now that Obama is winning this election.  I see no need to back away from that statement now. 

Obama breaks 300+ electoral votes (303), squeaks by on popular vote (less than 0.5% difference between the two), and we know a winner by the morning (possibly the boldest of the these statements). 

If I eat crow, I eat crow.  Wouldn't be the first time and probably won't be the last. 

There. It's in writing.


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Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #198 on: November 06, 2012, 05:55:39 PM »

Online foulweatherfan

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This story raises an important question - if you resurrect after voting and dying, should you get to vote again?

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121106/METRO02/211060410#ixzz2BTd4hm4M


I say yes.

Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #199 on: November 06, 2012, 05:56:42 PM »

Offline Cman

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Wow, didn't realize this but apparently a third of all ballots cast this year are early voting ballots (an estimate). Also, only 2/3 (again, estimated) of these have been counted. Depending on how many of these are from battleground states, and how close the election is in those states, it could be several days before we know who wins....

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83406_Page2.html
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Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #200 on: November 06, 2012, 05:57:23 PM »

Offline Cman

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Anyways, my prediction.

Been saying over a year now that Obama is winning this election.  I see no need to back away from that statement now. 

Obama breaks 300+ electoral votes (303), squeaks by on popular vote (less than 0.5% difference between the two), and we know a winner by the morning (possibly the boldest of the these statements). 

If I eat crow, I eat crow.  Wouldn't be the first time and probably won't be the last. 

There. It's in writing.

I agree that the boldes is the last. I expect it to be several days....
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Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #201 on: November 06, 2012, 05:58:04 PM »

Offline Rondo2287

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Anyways, my prediction.

Been saying over a year now that Obama is winning this election.  I see no need to back away from that statement now. 

Obama breaks 300+ electoral votes (303), squeaks by on popular vote (less than 0.5% difference between the two), and we know a winner by the morning (possibly the boldest of the these statements). 

If I eat crow, I eat crow.  Wouldn't be the first time and probably won't be the last. 

There. It's in writing.

Honestly I see no need to eat crow if Obama loses.  I think its very likely that Obama wins.  I would say 75% chance.  But since the margin is so close I really wouldnt be surprised either way.
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Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #202 on: November 06, 2012, 05:58:52 PM »

Offline Change

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Just voted.  ;D

According to latest polls the President will only lose Virginia Indiana and North Carolina from 2008. President Obama 314 Mitt Romney 227 electoral College. A crushing defeat for so called "tossup" election. lol

Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #203 on: November 06, 2012, 06:08:20 PM »

Offline Celts Fan 92

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<<<<< not votin but hopes Romney da racist loses

Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #204 on: November 06, 2012, 06:08:35 PM »

Offline Interceptor

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Also Consider that Brown won his seat in a non-presidential election year so now they are expecting a third more people to actually vote.  A real shame, pretty terrible that MA would vote such a horrible person into office, regardless of her political stances.  But I guess it is Ted Kenedy's former seat so its fitting.
Kerry is up in 2014, non-presidential year. If Brown loses, he could run then. Since by that time we'll have made some hard decisions about the deficit, I might actually be able to vote for him. Everyone wins?

Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #205 on: November 06, 2012, 06:23:47 PM »

Offline Rondo2287

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Romney out to a lead in Kentucky and Indianna, not a surprise to anyone
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Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #206 on: November 06, 2012, 06:28:47 PM »

Offline Interceptor

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I am following this page, which auto-refreshes.

Also, Obama popped on Reddit and asked everyone to go vote.

Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #207 on: November 06, 2012, 06:30:54 PM »

Offline Rondo2287

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I am following this page, which auto-refreshes.

Also, Obama popped on Reddit and asked everyone to go vote.

That map is really good, thanks for posting
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Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #208 on: November 06, 2012, 06:36:00 PM »

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These next 4 years will be some of the most difficult and painful economic times our country has ever seen regardless of who wins. For that reason, I prefer Obama to take it. The most devastating thing that could happen, to me at least, would be if the free market took the blame for what is going to take place. That would be the case with Romney at the helm because there is the perception out there that he is a true fiscal conservative.

Let the liberals have this one. Let big government take the blame.

$16 trillion and debt, we operate a budget that spends billions more than it takes in, and not one of these candidates has a plan in place to seriously address what will end up being a monetary crisis.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2012, 06:58:39 PM by JSD »

Re: Election day 2012
« Reply #209 on: November 06, 2012, 07:04:20 PM »

Offline JSD

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I am following this page, which auto-refreshes.

Also, Obama popped on Reddit and asked everyone to go vote.

Romney off to a bit of a lead according to this. Great link. Thanks

 

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