In other news, I have just noticed that Nate Silver put Warren's chance of winning at 94%. Did I miss Scott Brown punching a baby on television? I thought that the race was considerably closer than this.
Haven't really followed that race (not in MA) but it looks like the reasons are:
- Lots of polling, more than almost any other Senate race
- Brown leads or is tied in a few polls, but Warren leads in most
- Warren's poll leads are bigger than Brown's, and Brown doesn't break 50% in any poll
- Massachusetts is generally a solid blue state
Does seem a bit high though, especially since Brown's better results tend to be more recent.