Author Topic: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...  (Read 10049 times)

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Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #45 on: November 05, 2012, 04:52:24 PM »

Online foulweatherfan

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This is a very slanted look at people who disagree with Nate Silver, and is incredibly partisan. Some of you would enjoy it though, so I posted it.

I saw that awhile back.  Pretty good encapsulation of the arguments that have been made recently, from the inane personal attacks to the philosophical opposition to the actual methodological critiques, both from partisan pundits and other aggregators.

The article's obviously very slanted, but I'm not sure how it's partisan, unless the validity of statistical analysis is now a partisan position...actually, never mind, I see your point.

EDIT:  I think the best takeaway point is the statement at the end that while guys like Silver and Wang put their necks out by making clear predictions with specific probabilities attached, pundits like Scarborough and Brooks are never held accountable for the quality of their fuzzy, subjective analysis.  That's the key difference for me, and why I prefer the former group. 
« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 04:58:25 PM by fairweatherfan »

Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #46 on: November 05, 2012, 04:53:27 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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This is a very slanted look at people who disagree with Nate Silver, and is incredibly partisan. Some of you would enjoy it though, so I posted it.

Thanks for the link.

As a side note, I find it sort of odd that people pick on Nate Silver and not all the other poll aggregators (for lack of a better word) and prediction markets.

Probably because the other poll aggregators aren't pompous jerks, making contributions to disaster relief contingent upon stupid $1000 bets.

I think its mostly because so many people have been saying how good Nate Silver was, and how he was likely going to be right, and Nate Silver has been projecting the odds of President Obama's winning at around 60%, and been very critical of the polls he thinks are slanted to reveal an unrealistic projection.


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Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #47 on: November 05, 2012, 04:55:18 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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This is a very slanted look at people who disagree with Nate Silver, and is incredibly partisan. Some of you would enjoy it though, so I posted it.

I saw that awhile back.  Pretty good encapsulation of the arguments that have been made recently, from the inane personal attacks to the philosophical opposition to the actual methodological critiques.

The article's obviously very slanted, but I'm not sure how it's partisan, unless the validity of statistical analysis is now a partisan position...actually, never mind, I see your point.

I put partisan in there because most of Nate Silver's critics are GOP-affiliated, or at least active Romney supporters. So they'd probably take being called 'braying idiots' pretty personally.

But I agree that it isn't necessarily partisan. It just looks that way if you don't understand what they're actually critiquing.

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Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #48 on: November 05, 2012, 04:55:29 PM »

Offline Interceptor

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I don't see what's partisan about that article in a quick skim. Is math a political party?

As a side note, I find it sort of odd that people pick on Nate Silver and not all the other poll aggregators (for lack of a better word) and prediction markets.

Nate Silver works for the NYT.

Yes, very slanted is right.  It's always funny when somebody accuses others of "cherry picking", and then cherry picks largely inane arguments by critics, without addressing the meat of them.

Not that there is much meat to pick from. The only reasonable argument I've heard from Nate Silver critics, and one which he concedes himself, is that every poll could be biased against Romney.

Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #49 on: November 05, 2012, 05:06:49 PM »

Online foulweatherfan

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Relatedly, a study was put out awhile back that actually did look at pundits' predictions and their accuracy.

Long story short, the best prognosticators were generally liberal (even if you eliminate 2008 election predictions) and had economics and/or poly sci experience, but most weren't any more accurate than flipping a coin, and a few were actually significantly worse than that.

I can't find this in the article but if I'm remembering correctly, a secondary finding was that the more often a pundit was on TV, the worse their predictions tended to be. 

Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #50 on: November 05, 2012, 05:08:49 PM »

Online foulweatherfan

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Yes, very slanted is right.  It's always funny when somebody accuses others of "cherry picking", and then cherry picks largely inane arguments by critics, without addressing the meat of them.

Not that there is much meat to pick from. The only reasonable argument I've heard from Nate Silver critics, and one which he concedes himself, is that every poll could be biased against Romney.

This is the only real systemic criticism that could be accurate.  There's an unusual disconnect between national and state polls (though it's shrunk over the past week), and it's possible the state polls are sampling in such a way that they systematically underestimate Romney support.

There are some quibbles about the methodology Silver uses to arrive at his predictions, but those mostly involve his models being underconfident (in other words Obama should be a stronger favorite).

Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #51 on: November 05, 2012, 05:17:56 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Quote

    Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.

    Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and – most startlingly – Pennsylvania.

Let's hope for the good of the country that Mitt's polls are right.


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Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #52 on: November 05, 2012, 05:20:10 PM »

Offline Cman

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Quote

    Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.

    Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and – most startlingly – Pennsylvania.

Let's hope for the good of the country that Mitt's polls are right.

^^ I'm throwing a red challenge flag for bias!
:)
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Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #53 on: November 05, 2012, 05:29:41 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Quote

    Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.

    Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and – most startlingly – Pennsylvania.

Let's hope for the good of the country that Mitt's polls are right.

(disclaimer: not attacking Roy, or his viewpoints, no matter how wrong I think they are..just airing a general grievance with a common phrasing)

I really dislike it when people phrase it like this. Its one of those statements that frustrate me, because I never know how to respond.

"I hope for the good of the country" doesn't bother me. It's 'Lets hope for the good of the country.'

As if we should all hope that Mitt Romeny's obviously doctored polling results are correct, because even though I know that you disagree with me, I am totally right that voting for Mitt Romney is the irrefutably right choice for everyone, and even if you disagree, you're wrong and will thank me later.

Its only in politics that this bothers me.

'Lets hope Danny recognizes the futility of keeping both Barbosa and Terry on the roster and goes out there and begs Dionte Christmas to give him one more chance, for the good of the Celtics'. That doesn't bother me.

'Lets hope the weather clears up, because I hate when its too hot'. That doesn't bother me.

'Lets hope the guy I am voting for wins, for the good of the country.'

That bothers me. 

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Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #54 on: November 05, 2012, 05:36:44 PM »

Offline Interceptor

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(disclaimer: not attacking Roy, or his viewpoints, no matter how wrong I think they are..just airing a general grievance with a common phrasing)

I really dislike it when people phrase it like this. Its one of those statements that frustrate me, because I never know how to respond.

"I hope for the good of the country" doesn't bother me. It's 'Lets hope for the good of the country.'

As if we should all hope that Mitt Romeny's obviously doctored polling results are correct, because even though I know that you disagree with me, I am totally right that voting for Mitt Romney is the irrefutably right choice for everyone, and even if you disagree, you're wrong and will thank me later.

Its only in politics that this bothers me.

'Lets hope Danny recognizes the futility of keeping both Barbosa and Terry on the roster and goes out there and begs Dionte Christmas to give him one more chance, for the good of the Celtics'. That doesn't bother me.

'Lets hope the weather clears up, because I hate when its too hot'. That doesn't bother me.

'Lets hope the guy I am voting for wins, for the good of the country.'

That bothers me.
I was writing a post like this, threw it away, came here and see you did it, so I'll give you a TP. Also bothers me.

Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #55 on: November 05, 2012, 05:38:08 PM »

Offline Bombastic Jones

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This is a very slanted look at people who disagree with Nate Silver, and is incredibly partisan. Some of you would enjoy it though, so I posted it.

Thanks for the link.

As a side note, I find it sort of odd that people pick on Nate Silver and not all the other poll aggregators (for lack of a better word) and prediction markets.

Probably because the other poll aggregators aren't pompous jerks, making contributions to disaster relief contingent upon stupid $1000 bets.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/264361775250685952


Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #56 on: November 05, 2012, 05:47:26 PM »

Offline thirstyboots18

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I was just polled, yet again, this time by FL. Republicam headquarters, so they said.  He (the caller) wanted to know if I was  voting tomorrow.  I said I hadn't decided yet.  He was incredulous and asked what the problem was.  I told him that I hadn't decided who to vote for yet.  Since I am listed as a member of the Rep. party, I guess he didn't know what to say....dead silence...and then finally a "Thank you for your time."
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Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #57 on: November 05, 2012, 05:52:40 PM »

Offline Bombastic Jones

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I was just polled, yet again, this time by FL. Republicam headquarters, so they said.  He (the caller) wanted to know if I was  voting tomorrow.  I said I hadn't decided yet.  He was incredulous and asked what the problem was.  I told him that I hadn't decided who to vote for yet.  Since I am listed as a member of the Rep. party, I guess he didn't know what to say....dead silence...and then finally a "Thank you for your time."

Out of curiosity, how are you approaching this?  Are you weighing what you like and dislike about each candidate?  What issues you feel strongest about?  Considering whether not voting will make some sort of statement?  Thinking about voting third party?

Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #58 on: November 05, 2012, 05:57:57 PM »

Online foulweatherfan

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Quote

    Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.

    Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and – most startlingly – Pennsylvania.

Let's hope for the good of the country that Mitt's polls are right.

^^ I'm throwing a red challenge flag for bias!
:)

How unprecedented.  (would've linked directly to the WSJ instead of this crappy blog, but the "ridiculously biased turnout model" bit in the middle was way too Groundhog Day-esque to ignore).

EDIT:  For equal time, the Democrats did the same thing in the Walker recall election.  Releasing favorable "internal polling" at the last minute is what campaigns do when the public polls are against them.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 06:21:49 PM by fairweatherfan »

Re: One day to go in the 2012 election cycle...
« Reply #59 on: November 05, 2012, 06:31:47 PM »

Offline thirstyboots18

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I was just polled, yet again, this time by FL. Republicam headquarters, so they said.  He (the caller) wanted to know if I was  voting tomorrow.  I said I hadn't decided yet.  He was incredulous and asked what the problem was.  I told him that I hadn't decided who to vote for yet.  Since I am listed as a member of the Rep. party, I guess he didn't know what to say....dead silence...and then finally a "Thank you for your time."

Out of curiosity, how are you approaching this?  Are you weighing what you like and dislike about each candidate?  What issues you feel strongest about?  Considering whether not voting will make some sort of statement?  Thinking about voting third party?
Truthfully?  I am not approaching it well.  I am overthinking everything, and I feel sick about it.  I lived in and voted in Florida (Bush v. Gore) and I know how important each vote is.  We also have quite a few Florida referendums to vot on, so I will vote for something.  I don't trust either candidate...one can't answer a straight question, and the other pretends things don't exist if he doesn't like them.  I am a fiscal conservative...so I can only say for sure who I will not be voting for.

Roy has said a vote for anyone but Romney is ultimately a vote for Obama, I agree, and that is what is killing me.
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