Author Topic: Josh Smith: what's the probability of each of these scenarios? (and some Q's)  (Read 2820 times)

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Offline bfrombleacher

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1. We get him for fair value through a trade with ATL as you guys suggest (AB, Bass, Jeff Green, picks, Sully and most of our potential players)

2. We get him for less than fair value through a trade with ATL as Josh Smith forces his way out of ATL (in a similar fashion to Dwight). Picks involved, Bass...who knows

3. Free agency next year

And the questions:

1. If we trade for him, we can resign him for Bird Rights, correct?

2. We can decline Pierce's option and then ask him to resign for cheaper right? If we sign J-Smoove in the FA next year, how much less will he earn compared to what he could get elsewhere?

Offline jdz101

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I'm sure whatever the actual scenario with smoove or any other quality free agents is, im sure Danny will make the right decision.


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Offline chambers

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I think we'd get him for fair value, which would be a case of what you'd describe as option number 2.
We won't have to give up the farm- but we will have to make salaries match.

He can push his way out of ATL if he wants and we could get him for very litte. It just depends we can make the money work.
Danny Ainge tried to get CP3 & David West to add to KG, Pierce and Ray Allen. Just Imagine if the stars had aligned...

Offline Brendan

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I think we'd get him for fair NBA market value, which is lower than actual worth. If I'm ATL I don't want Bass coming back. I think it has to be a three team trade (since I'd guess we're sending out Bass, and I don't think ATL will want him.) I think AB and one of the picks, I'll just guess it'd be Melo cause ATL would have more interest in a C than a PF like Sully, go too.

I don't think Smith has to raise a stink. Just play bball and don't negotiate. That will not necessarily force ATLs hand, but encourage them to explore options. I'm guessing they want expiring in 2013 or 2014 deals, young guys with proven potential, and picks.

I think the Celts will have to think long and hard about doing this deal, but in the end I'd say they do it. Smith seems to have the athleticism to play small ball PF or traditional PF. If they can keep Green I think the 8 man falls into place.

q1 : yes. I'd guess they try to get an extension done before trading though.
q2 : pretty sure yes.

UPDATE: I think IF we get him, its for value described above. I'd still guess that's Less than 10% chance, as I haven't even heard anyone say the C's management is interested in him.

Online manl_lui

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as much as I like Jsmoove, i am getting tired of all scenarios involving Bradley.

I don't mind trading Bass or Green (either or) + Courtney Lee to make salaries work, but Bradley should be untouchable

Online nickagneta

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4. We don't get him
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Offline pearljammer10

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as much as I like Jsmoove, i am getting tired of all scenarios involving Bradley.

I don't mind trading Bass or Green (either or) + Courtney Lee to make salaries work, but Bradley should be untouchable

Couldnt disagree more. Bradley should be traded while his value is highest. If the Hawks want Bradley as the number one player in a deal there is no way you say no to that. He played 14 good games in a lock out shortened season and hes coming off a year of two shoudler surgeries. I would much much much rather have Smith and a guard rotation of Rondo/Lee/Terry/Barbosa, then to not have smith and have a guard logjam of Rondo/Lee/Terry/Barbosa/Bradley.
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Offline dwayne celtic

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i would rather keep bradley i think he has the potential to be better than lee, even though i like lee a lot i would say do bass + lee + a pick for j.smith, i think that matches salary, j.smith is making like 12 mil a year i think 

Online Cman

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4. We don't get him

^^Most likely scenario.
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Offline Change

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ah yes, the Josh Smith fantasy scenarios that he'll end in Boston

Two plausible scenarios Josh Smith ordeal

1) Atlanta pays him. Build around front-line of Smith and Horford.
2) Atlanta trades him for youth, expiring contracts (clear the books), and multiple high first round picks.

Scenario No.2 Celtics have quality youth, but not expiring contracts, and definitely not the picks.

In summary,
4. We don't get him


Offline Chris

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ah yes, the Josh Smith fantasy scenarios that he'll end in Boston

Two plausible scenarios Josh Smith ordeal

1) Atlanta pays him. Build around front-line of Smith and Horford.
2) Atlanta trades him for youth, expiring contracts (clear the books), and multiple high first round picks.

Scenario No.2 Celtics have quality youth, but not expiring contracts, and definitely not the picks.

In summary,
4. We don't get him

I agree with this, but I will add one more scenario.

Atlanta resigns Smith, and trades Horford, in a play to lure Smith's buddy Howard and Chris Paul to Atlanta.

Online action781

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2. We can decline Pierce's option and then ask him to resign for cheaper right? If we sign J-Smoove in the FA next year, how much less will he earn compared to what he could get elsewhere?

Yes, and my employer could also decline to rehire me at the end of this year and ask me to come back for cheaper.
.................to the
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Offline alley oop

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as much as I like Jsmoove, i am getting tired of all scenarios involving Bradley.

I don't mind trading Bass or Green (either or) + Courtney Lee to make salaries work, but Bradley should be untouchable

Agreed. Bradley's a game changer defensively. His shot has good form. And he's the "punk" stopper.

Offline nostar

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as much as I like Jsmoove, i am getting tired of all scenarios involving Bradley.

I don't mind trading Bass or Green (either or) + Courtney Lee to make salaries work, but Bradley should be untouchable

This is silly. The only untouchable on our team is KG...and that is because of his no-trade clause. Rondo was on the block for Steph Curry, Westbrook and Chris Paul. While getting Paul would have been a pretty good move (albeit more salary) the other two just aren't the players that Rondo is.

If we almost moved Pierce last season for noone and a top 3 pick from NJ...I can't imagine we wouldn't move Bradley for Josh Smith.

2. We can decline Pierce's option and then ask him to resign for cheaper right? If we sign J-Smoove in the FA next year, how much less will he earn compared to what he could get elsewhere?

This is actually a really good question. Maybe Roy knows but I don't see anywhere in the CBA rules where it says you can't decline a team option and then resign a player to a new contract. Of course the player has to agree because in declining the option you renounce any rights you have to them.

It would at least be worth a conversation with him I think. If I were Pierce I'd consider resigning for less if the C's went out and got a player that would help get us another banner. He said in an interview this summer that his playing is no longer about the money for him, it's about winning.

Quote
OP

I think it's probably 50/50 whether we get Smith or not. The FA option isn't likely but I'm pretty sure we'll make a bid for him mid-season regardless of our record. I also think we'll consider moving Pierce before the June 30th deadline (at least I think that is the deadline) if Dwight is on the market from LA.

This is all leading me to hope for a Rondo-Smith-Howard team wherein no one can shoot free throws and every play is a dunk of a trick shot. Boston Globe Trotters!

 

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