Poll

What percentage of the popular vote will Gary Johnson get?

less than 0.5%
6 (37.5%)
0.5% to 1%
6 (37.5%)
more than 1%
4 (25%)

Total Members Voted: 16

Author Topic: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson  (Read 1240 times)

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Offline Cman

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Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« on: October 17, 2012, 09:51:11 AM »
Intrade, an online prediction market, has created a new market for Gary Johnson's political chances.  No one thinks he will win, of course. The more interesting question is how much of the popular vote he will get.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91965

Current odds:
~80% chance of 0.5% or more
~50% chance of 1% or more.

Sort of wonky, but thought some might be interested in this -- and so created a poll here for us all at cblog.
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Offline Cman

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2012, 09:52:16 AM »
I'm going with less than 0.5%.

I think there's some (small) interest in him now, but as election approaches, people will either vote for one of the two main candidates, or not vote at all.
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Offline Interceptor

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2012, 11:20:32 AM »
I love Intrade.

I think Johnson might get 0.5-1%. He'll pick up some Pauliacs in non-swing states.

Offline Cman

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2012, 03:41:50 PM »
Thought I'd bump this given a recent poll by CNN showing Johnson potentially getting upwards of 5% in Ohio.

Quote
Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode are also on the presidential ballot in Ohio. When their names were added to the poll, Obama is at 47%, Romney 44%, with Johnson at 5%, Stein at 1% and Goode registering less than one-half of one percent.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/02/cnn-poll-obama-50-romney-47-in-ohio/
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Offline LooseCannon

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2012, 05:24:33 PM »
I'm going to go with 0.3% of the vote.
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Offline JSD

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2012, 05:47:02 PM »
I submitted my absentee ballot today... I weighed heavily between the two candidates, but ultimately ended up voting Gary Johnson instead of writing in Ron Paul. If the Libertarian ticket gets 5% of the population vote it ends the two party duopoly. How is that a wasted vote?

Offline mqtcelticsfan

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2012, 06:26:26 PM »
I submitted my absentee ballot today... I weighed heavily between the two candidates, but ultimately ended up voting Gary Johnson instead of writing in Ron Paul. If the Libertarian ticket gets 5% of the population vote it ends the two party duopoly. How is that a wasted vote?

Because the party won't get 5%, and won't end the two party system?

Offline JSD

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2012, 06:29:34 PM »
I submitted my absentee ballot today... I weighed heavily between the two candidates, but ultimately ended up voting Gary Johnson instead of writing in Ron Paul. If the Libertarian ticket gets 5% of the population vote it ends the two party duopoly. How is that a wasted vote?

Because the party won't get 5%, and won't end the two party system?

You're like, so smart and clever.

Offline LooseCannon

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2012, 06:52:36 PM »
If you want a third party, maybe you should hope that the Tea Party splits off as a complete separate entity running its own candidates, with the remains of the Republican Party joining with Blue Dogs, the sort of of Democrats who like Joe Lieberman, and people like Michael Bloomberg.
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Offline Cman

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2012, 07:54:56 PM »
If you want a third party, maybe you should hope that the Tea Party splits off as a complete separate entity running its own candidates, with the remains of the Republican Party joining with Blue Dogs, the sort of of Democrats who like Joe Lieberman, and people like Michael Bloomberg.
If that happens, I'll likely switch back to the Republican Party.
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Offline Interceptor

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2012, 08:13:12 PM »
If you want a third party, maybe you should hope that the Tea Party splits off as a complete separate entity running its own candidates, with the remains of the Republican Party joining with Blue Dogs, the sort of of Democrats who like Joe Lieberman, and people like Michael Bloomberg.
Where is the signup sheet for this?

Offline foulweatherfan

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2012, 09:10:00 PM »
I submitted my absentee ballot today... I weighed heavily between the two candidates, but ultimately ended up voting Gary Johnson instead of writing in Ron Paul. If the Libertarian ticket gets 5% of the population vote it ends the two party duopoly. How is that a wasted vote?

Because the party won't get 5%, and won't end the two party system?

You're like, so smart and clever.

I don't think any vote is a "wasted vote" and I'm not a big fan of the term.  But if your criteria for not being wasted is the Libertarians getting 5% of the vote, by that standard your vote is very likely to be "wasted". 

Offline LooseCannon

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2012, 10:13:54 PM »
If you want a third party, maybe you should hope that the Tea Party splits off as a complete separate entity running its own candidates, with the remains of the Republican Party joining with Blue Dogs, the sort of of Democrats who like Joe Lieberman, and people like Michael Bloomberg.
Where is the signup sheet for this?

Well, people tried to draft a third-party candidate with Unity08 and Americans Elect.  How do you feel about Angus King in 2016?
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Offline freshinthehouse

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2012, 10:33:15 PM »
I'm voting 3rd party.  Going for either Stein or Rocky Anderson (if he is even on the ballot). 

Offline Cman

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Re: Predict the percent of popular vote for Gary Johnson
« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2012, 11:08:13 AM »
Just to update this topic, it looks like Gary Johnson got just shy of 1%
http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

Also, looks like he didn't play spoiler in FL. Obama beat Romney by ~74,000 votes and Johnson got ~45,000 votes.
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