Hollinger Celtics Preview

[Chris]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

It's all upside because what he's actually accomplished to this point isn't by any stretch remarkable. There is some context to that, beginning with him playing out of position as a starting 4, but aside from Hollinger's last sentence, he didn't say anything false.

My problem with Hollinger's take on Green was:

guaranteeing him four years (with a player option on the fourth!) at a rate far beyond any rational market level

That is a bold statement, that isn't based in fact.  While the heart is a confounding factor, there is absolutely precedent for a market of talented, yet unproven swingmen/tweeners getting the type of money Green got.

If you want to go back to Marvin Williams, thats a pretty easy one.  Tyrus Thomas is in a similar boat.  Thaddeus Young is very comparable.  Nic Batum is being paid more, and is still pretty unproven.  Marcus Thornton and Trevor Ariza were in the same tax bracket.

And of course, the market was set with Gerald Wallace, who is likely on the downside of his career getting his huge contract.

Now, we can quibble about which of those guys are better or worse, but when you look at their resumes and skillsets, they are all on similar levels to Green, and they all were paid in the same ballpark.

So, unless Green's heart is about to explode (and if it does, I assume Insurance covers his contract), I think Hollinger was taking a bit of a liberty to suggest it was "beyond any reasonable market level".  In fact, it is right at market level.  It just wasn't the bargain I think most of us thought he could get, given the year off, and the good will Danny put up.

Watch it with the "heart about to explode" comment. Pretty insensitive.

It would be insensitive if it was the case.  But, by all reports (and confirmed by nearly $40 million), his heart is all better after the surgery.  Which is the point. It should not be part of the discussion.  And by his basketball resume alone, he is making market value.

[MBunge]

The only real beef I have is when people point to his OKC numbers and say, "Look, he's a perfectly fine power-forward, he should start over Bass at the 4". He was a really bad power-forward, and those superficial box scores don't tell the story of Jeff Green at the 4. We don't want that guy playing 30 mpg for us as a starter at the 4. We want the multi-tool 3.

Well, that I completely agree with.  I'd rather start Sully at the 4 than Green.  Heck, I'd rather start Darko at the 5 and move KG back to 4.

Mike

[Chris]

What does it matter what Jeff Green is getting paid? We are over the salary cap for the next 2 years anyways. We couldn't get anyone comparable to Green if we just let him walk because we didn't want to pay him 2 mil extra a year.

It is Hollinger nonsense....

The question being bandied about there was 'was Jeff Green overpayed?'.

But whether Jeff Green is overpaid and by how much depends largely on how good he is.  If he's roughly on the same level as Wilson Chandler, then he's probably overpaid but not by any incredible amount.

Mike

There isn't an conclusive evidence that Jeff Green will be as good at the 3 in the long term as Wilson Chandler.

And there isn't conclusive evidence that Chandler will be good outside of D'Antoni's system.  So far, the number aren't great. 

Here are his numbers since he left NY:

MPG   29.55
FG%   0.41
3pt%   0.33
Reb   5.03
Pts   11.62
TOV   1.90
AST   1.76

Not so great.

[nostar]

The only real beef I have is when people point to his OKC numbers and say, "Look, he's a perfectly fine power-forward, he should start over Bass at the 4". He was a really bad power-forward, and those superficial box scores don't tell the story of Jeff Green at the 4. We don't want that guy playing 30 mpg for us as a starter at the 4. We want the multi-tool 3.

I tend to agree that pointing to a players numbers on a team 3 seasons ago where he played out of position and with ball-hogs isn't the best way to make a good assessment. On the other hand I'm not sure that Jeff Green would make a bad PF on a team with KG, Pierce, AB and Rondo. Garnett is famous for covering up the defensive blemishes of lesser players and the Celtics play better team defense than the Thunder ever have. With defensive stats you have to take the other players into account and there is no stratosphere where Nenad Krstic is rivaling KG.

You will see Green at the 4 when guys like Lebron, Carmello and Durant play the 4. Also I think a lot of people forget that Green is 6'9 and 235lbs. Those are pretty close to the same numbers that Josh Smith is playing at PF.

[Boris Badenov]

What does it matter what Jeff Green is getting paid? We are over the salary cap for the next 2 years anyways. We couldn't get anyone comparable to Green if we just let him walk because we didn't want to pay him 2 mil extra a year.

It is Hollinger nonsense....

The question being bandied about there was 'was Jeff Green overpayed?'.

But whether Jeff Green is overpaid and by how much depends largely on how good he is.  If he's roughly on the same level as Wilson Chandler, then he's probably overpaid but not by any incredible amount.

Mike

There isn't an conclusive evidence that Jeff Green will be as good at the 3 in the long term as Wilson Chandler.

And there isn't conclusive evidence that Chandler will be good outside of D'Antoni's system.  So far, the number aren't great. 

Here are his numbers since he left NY:

MPG   29.55
FG%   0.41
3pt%   0.33
Reb   5.03
Pts   11.62
TOV   1.90
AST   1.76

Not so great.

I also did a comparison of Batum and Green over the summer, and they were far more similar (on offense) than you might expect.

Essentially Batum's only edge is 3 pt shooting. If Green can shoot 35-37% from 3 this year, he will essentially match Batum in PER.

[Boris Badenov]

I have one other comment about the Hollinger preview, or the snippets anyway.

It seems really odd that he would not be more optimistic, because he posted something last year about how our 2nd half defense was rated even better than the 2008 defense.

Did he not mention that in the original article? I mean, in my view we can still be 15th in the league in offense (however you rate it) and win the championship, if we have the best defense in the league by a significant margin.

[indeedproceed]

What does it matter what Jeff Green is getting paid? We are over the salary cap for the next 2 years anyways. We couldn't get anyone comparable to Green if we just let him walk because we didn't want to pay him 2 mil extra a year.

It is Hollinger nonsense....

The question being bandied about there was 'was Jeff Green overpayed?'.

But whether Jeff Green is overpaid and by how much depends largely on how good he is.  If he's roughly on the same level as Wilson Chandler, then he's probably overpaid but not by any incredible amount.

Mike

There isn't an conclusive evidence that Jeff Green will be as good at the 3 in the long term as Wilson Chandler.

And there isn't conclusive evidence that Chandler will be good outside of D'Antoni's system.  So far, the number aren't great. 

Here are his numbers since he left NY:

MPG   29.55
FG%   0.41
3pt%   0.33
Reb   5.03
Pts   11.62
TOV   1.90
AST   1.76

Not so great.

True. The Nugs though have bounced him around a lot. His PT has been up and down, and his role, and his position. We'll see though.

The only real beef I have is when people point to his OKC numbers and say, "Look, he's a perfectly fine power-forward, he should start over Bass at the 4". He was a really bad power-forward, and those superficial box scores don't tell the story of Jeff Green at the 4. We don't want that guy playing 30 mpg for us as a starter at the 4. We want the multi-tool 3.

I tend to agree that pointing to a players numbers on a team 3 seasons ago where he played out of position and with ball-hogs isn't the best way to make a good assessment.

This is all true.

On the other hand I'm not sure that Jeff Green would make a bad PF on a team with KG, Pierce, AB and Rondo. Garnett is famous for covering up the defensive blemishes of lesser players and the Celtics play better team defense than the Thunder ever have. With defensive stats you have to take the other players into account and there is no stratosphere where Nenad Krstic is rivaling KG.

This is true to some degree, but Green's biggest problem was that he just couldn't defend traditional 4's in any meaningful capacity. Too strong, too big for him. KG will help that a little, but that kind of liability, when you have perfectly good matchups for Green at the 3, just doesn't seem necessary.

You will see Green at the 4 when guys like Lebron, Carmello and Durant play the 4. Also I think a lot of people forget that Green is 6'9 and 235lbs. Those are pretty close to the same numbers that Josh Smith is playing at PF.

I think this is spot on though, and I think it is a part of the equation that Hollinger is leaving out. We'll see LeBron 3 times this season, and we'll have to beat him in the playoffs. That's a big portion of why we overpaid for green, IMO.

[Fan from VT]

I have one other comment about the Hollinger preview, or the snippets anyway.

It seems really odd that he would not be more optimistic, because he posted something last year about how our 2nd half defense was rated even better than the 2008 defense.

Did he not mention that in the original article? I mean, in my view we can still be 15th in the league in offense (however you rate it) and win the championship, if we have the best defense in the league by a significant margin.

I think I pulled a quote mentioning we were Second in defense last year, Chicago number 1. Chicago may take a step back (losing Asik), but we also might take a step back because Hollinger pointed out that our bench last year was basically all D/No O, and we traded that for some lesser defenders that can actually contribute on offense.

In fact, Hollinger made the point you did. Our offense was very bad last year (24th). So if we can integrate the bench guys/new guys and get Bradley healthy, and have a top 3 defense (reasonable) but get into the top 10-15 on offense, then that is a very potent combination. Last season's 2/24 combo was not enough; changing that to, say, 3/12 in terms of defense/offense rank would be huge.

[Chris]

True. The THUNDER though have bounced him around a lot. His PT has been up and down, and his role, and his position. We'll see though.

Fixed.  Sound familiar?

[indeedproceed]

True. The THUNDER though have bounced him around a lot. His PT has been up and down, and his role, and his position. We'll see though.

Fixed.  Sound familiar?

Well the Thunder were pretty consistent, they kept him at 4, even when Serge Ibaka emerged as a better player. I don't think Green and Chandler went through similar experiences (Chandler on the Nugs, Green on the Thunder), but I do think that Green and Chandler are similar on their new teams in that they have neither had a real shot to get their feet under them on the court, as it were.

[Chris]

True. The THUNDER though have bounced him around a lot. His PT has been up and down, and his role, and his position. We'll see though.

Fixed.  Sound familiar?

Well the Thunder were pretty consistent, they kept him at 4, even when Serge Ibaka emerged as a better player. I don't think Green and Chandler went through similar experiences (Chandler on the Nugs, Green on the Thunder), but I do think that Green and Chandler are similar on their new teams in that they have neither had a real shot to get their feet under them on the court, as it were.

In Denver in 2010-2011, Chandler played 376 minutes at SF, 127 minutes at SG, and just 16 minutes at PF.

Since I don't think there is a huge difference between SG and SF, I don't think Chandler was being yanked around all that much either.

I think they are different in the fact that Chandler played years in a system that emphasized his strengths, while Green played in one that emphasized his weaknesses.

[SAS]

What does it matter what Jeff Green is getting paid? We are over the salary cap for the next 2 years anyways. We couldn't get anyone comparable to Green if we just let him walk because we didn't want to pay him 2 mil extra a year.

This.  C's are all in for the next couple of years, and without Green the C's would have absolutely nobody to take some of Pierce's minutes.  Could Danny have played hardball and bargained Green down a million or two per year?  Probably.  But given the context, paying an extra couple of million for a guy that they really seem to like and believe in seems far from making this a disastrous contract.

[MJohnnyboy]

In other ways, Boston was farther off than people realize -- once Chris Bosh came back, Miami won the last two games rather handily, and this team nearly lost to eighth-seeded Philadelphia in the previous round.

Right Hollinger, because Bosh had so much to do with Lebron's best game as a pro in game 6.

[LooseCannon]

Over on the TrueHoops blog, Henry Abbott points out a possible flaw in Hollinger's criticism of the Celtics' low shots per possession.

You know which three teams got the fewest shots per possession last year?

Worst by a country mile was the Celtics. Second was the Thunder. Third was the Heat.

[Chris]

In other ways, Boston was farther off than people realize -- once Chris Bosh came back, Miami won the last two games rather handily, and this team nearly lost to eighth-seeded Philadelphia in the previous round.

Right Hollinger, because Bosh had so much to do with Lebron's best game as a pro in game 6.

Eh, I actually do think Bosh helped the rest of the team from completely blowing it.  And he made a large impact in game 7.