Hollinger Celtics Preview

[MBunge]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

It's all upside because what he's actually accomplished to this point isn't by any stretch remarkable. There is some context to that, beginning with him playing out of position as a starting 4, but aside from Hollinger's last sentence, he didn't say anything false.

Jeff Green's career averages - 13.9 pts, 44% shooting, 5.5 rebs, 1.6 assists.

I picked Wilson Chandler's name out of thin air.  Here are his career averages - 13.5 pts, 44% shooting, 5.2 rebs, 1.8 assists.

Does Hollinger say Chandler isn't "any good"?

Now, there's a serious argument to be made that Boston is overpaying Green based on his past performance.  This "Jeff Green sucks" meme, however, is just the latest thing the stat-heads have latched onto to prove how they understand basketball so much better than everyone else.

Mike

Jeff Green's career averages don't knock Hollinger's point. They look okay without context, but when you factor in it was over 34 minutes per game, with atrocious defense as a 4, its not only unimpressive, its below average. He's an okay scorer as a mismatch 4, terrible defender at the 4, terrible rebounder.

Like someone said earlier, it is all upside with Jeff Green. We didn't sign him for what he was, we signed him because we thought he could be better if used right.

1.  Jeff Green's career average - 33.6 minutes a game.

Wilson Chandler's career average - 31.9 minutes a game.


2.  Is Wilson Chandler some kind of super-defender at the 3?  How do you think he'd do defending 4's?

Is Green being overpaid?  Very possibly, though we have to see how he does playing more at the 3 this season and we have to factor in the replacement costs.  What would Boston have had to pay to get someone like Jeff Green if he walked away?  Could they even have done it?

Again, the stat-heads have embraced this "Jeff Green sucks" meme as evidence of how brilliantly insightful they are.

Mike

[FatjohnReturns]

Why do we keep mistaking "overpayed' with "not a good player"?




I agree Green was overpayed. 



He had to many "could be" to get that type of deal.


He "could be" healthy for the rest of his career.


He "could be" great at SF.

Player contracts are given not only on what you have done in the past but what the organization believes you are capable of doing in the future. When Danny gave Rondo his last contract was he overpayed at that time? I think so. Now it seems he is outplaying his contract.

I think the reason Danny gave him the contract is because he believes in the long run Green will perform up to or exceed his contract.

[ianboyextreme]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

I really really dont understand how anyone in the league averaging 15 ppg is not evidence that that player is "good".

[ianboyextreme]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

Contracts from this summer: Omer Asik (3 years, 25 mil.), Nic Batum(4 years, 46 million), Jeremy Lin (3 years, 25 mil., making 14 mil in 3rd year of contract), and yet Jeff's is the worst contract of the summer? He's not even making 10 million this year or any of the years in the contract. He will live up to that contract.

[ianboyextreme]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

It's all upside because what he's actually accomplished to this point isn't by any stretch remarkable. There is some context to that, beginning with him playing out of position as a starting 4, but aside from Hollinger's last sentence, he didn't say anything false.

My problem with Hollinger's take on Green was:

guaranteeing him four years (with a player option on the fourth!) at a rate far beyond any rational market level

That is a bold statement, that isn't based in fact.  While the heart is a confounding factor, there is absolutely precedent for a market of talented, yet unproven swingmen/tweeners getting the type of money Green got.

If you want to go back to Marvin Williams, thats a pretty easy one.  Tyrus Thomas is in a similar boat.  Thaddeus Young is very comparable.  Nic Batum is being paid more, and is still pretty unproven.  Marcus Thornton and Trevor Ariza were in the same tax bracket.

And of course, the market was set with Gerald Wallace, who is likely on the downside of his career getting his huge contract.

Now, we can quibble about which of those guys are better or worse, but when you look at their resumes and skillsets, they are all on similar levels to Green, and they all were paid in the same ballpark.

So, unless Green's heart is about to explode (and if it does, I assume Insurance covers his contract), I think Hollinger was taking a bit of a liberty to suggest it was "beyond any reasonable market level".  In fact, it is right at market level.  It just wasn't the bargain I think most of us thought he could get, given the year off, and the good will Danny put up.

Watch it with the "heart about to explode" comment. Pretty insensitive.

[ianboyextreme]

For someone who relies purely on stats, Hollinger sure offers up a lot of opinion.

[indeedproceed]

1.  Jeff Green's career average - 33.6 minutes a game.

Wilson Chandler's career average - 31.9 minutes a game.

I understand why you'd look at Wilson Chandler; he's a multi-tool, multi-positional player. He's a good comparison to Jeff Green in some ways.

2.  Is Wilson Chandler some kind of super-defender at the 3?  How do you think he'd do defending 4's?

You're missing the point. Jeff Green's box scores you're putting out as proof that he's actually pretty good are almost completely reliant on his scoring numbers. His scoring numbers though are likely a bit inflated because he was an offensive mismatch. But, you've gotta pay the piper too. Jeff Green is an offensive mismatch, but cost his team more in terrible rebounding and terrible defense than he gave them in slightly below-average scoring output.

Is Green being overpaid?  Very possibly, though we have to see how he does playing more at the 3 this season and we have to factor in the replacement costs.  What would Boston have had to pay to get someone like Jeff Green if he walked away?  Could they even have done it?

You kept on comparing Jeff Green to Wilson Chandler. You should compare their contracts. Wilson Chandler will cost the Nugs approximately $10 million dollars less over the next 4 years than Jeff Green will cost the C's.

[Fafnir]

I really really dont understand how anyone in the league averaging 15 ppg is not evidence that that player is "good".

Scoring 15 PPG in 30+ MPG on roughly 15 shots per game (actually like 14.75) isn't all that remarkable.

Its not bad, but its not anything to get excited about.

[BballTim]

Back in 2010 Hollinger said nothing was stopping Orlando from getting back to the NBA finals after the Second round was done.

I learned that year that his system of statistics is quite flawed as I remember the C's kicking the Magic in the teeth in the ECF.

  I thought that stretch was fairly telling. It wasn't just that he was shocked that the Celts did well in the playoffs (many were) but he really didn't have the slightest idea about why it was happening.

[rondohondo]

1.  Jeff Green's career average - 33.6 minutes a game.

Wilson Chandler's career average - 31.9 minutes a game.

I understand why you'd look at Wilson Chandler; he's a multi-tool, multi-positional player. He's a good comparison to Jeff Green in some ways.

2.  Is Wilson Chandler some kind of super-defender at the 3?  How do you think he'd do defending 4's?

You're missing the point. Jeff Green's box scores you're putting out as proof that he's actually pretty good are almost completely reliant on his scoring numbers. His scoring numbers though are likely a bit inflated because he was an offensive mismatch. But, you've gotta pay the piper too. Jeff Green is an offensive mismatch, but cost his team more in terrible rebounding and terrible defense than he gave them in slightly below-average scoring output.

Is Green being overpaid?  Very possibly, though we have to see how he does playing more at the 3 this season and we have to factor in the replacement costs.  What would Boston have had to pay to get someone like Jeff Green if he walked away?  Could they even have done it?

You kept on comparing Jeff Green to Wilson Chandler. You should compare their contracts. Wilson Chandler will cost the Nugs approximately $10 million dollars less over the next 4 years than Jeff Green will cost the C's.

What does it matter what Jeff Green is getting paid? We are over the salary cap for the next 2 years anyways. We couldn't get anyone comparable to Green if we just let him walk because we didn't want to pay him 2 mil extra a year.

It is Hollinger nonsense....

[indeedproceed]

What does it matter what Jeff Green is getting paid? We are over the salary cap for the next 2 years anyways. We couldn't get anyone comparable to Green if we just let him walk because we didn't want to pay him 2 mil extra a year.

It is Hollinger nonsense....

The question being bandied about there was 'was Jeff Green overpayed?'.

The question 'Does it hurt us if we overpaid for Jeff Green' is different.

[MBunge]

You kept on comparing Jeff Green to Wilson Chandler. You should compare their contracts. Wilson Chandler will cost the Nugs approximately $10 million dollars less over the next 4 years than Jeff Green will cost the C's.

But if somebody isn't "any good", then it doesn't matter if you pay them $10 million dollars less or $10 million dollars more.  Hollinger didn't say "Jeff Green's an okay/mediocre player that Boston is overpaying".  He said Green isn't "any good".  Those are not the same thing.

Mike

[MBunge]

What does it matter what Jeff Green is getting paid? We are over the salary cap for the next 2 years anyways. We couldn't get anyone comparable to Green if we just let him walk because we didn't want to pay him 2 mil extra a year.

It is Hollinger nonsense....

The question being bandied about there was 'was Jeff Green overpayed?'.

But whether Jeff Green is overpaid and by how much depends largely on how good he is.  If he's roughly on the same level as Wilson Chandler, then he's probably overpaid but not by any incredible amount.

Mike

[indeedproceed]

You kept on comparing Jeff Green to Wilson Chandler. You should compare their contracts. Wilson Chandler will cost the Nugs approximately $10 million dollars less over the next 4 years than Jeff Green will cost the C's.

But if somebody isn't "any good", then it doesn't matter if you pay them $10 million dollars less or $10 million dollars more.  Hollinger didn't say "Jeff Green's an okay/mediocre player that Boston is overpaying".  He said Green isn't "any good".  Those are not the same thing.

Mike

Yeah, I guess that Hollinger indulged in a bit of hyperbole there. He didn't say though that 'Jeff Green isn't any good', he said 'there is no evidence that he is actually any good', and to that end, he's partially correct. If we were buying Jeff Green the 30+mpg power forward, there isn't any evidence that he's an overall plus to our roster.

We bought Jeff Green the reinvented perimeter defender and gazelle though, so who knows. There is some evidence that Jeff green does a pretty good job on the wing as a defender, and he finishes at the hoop better over 3's as well.

[indeedproceed]

What does it matter what Jeff Green is getting paid? We are over the salary cap for the next 2 years anyways. We couldn't get anyone comparable to Green if we just let him walk because we didn't want to pay him 2 mil extra a year.

It is Hollinger nonsense....

The question being bandied about there was 'was Jeff Green overpayed?'.

But whether Jeff Green is overpaid and by how much depends largely on how good he is.  If he's roughly on the same level as Wilson Chandler, then he's probably overpaid but not by any incredible amount.

Mike

There isn't an conclusive evidence that Jeff Green will be as good at the 3 in the long term as Wilson Chandler.

There are some good signs that he has a future there, but that's why i said that Jeff Green is in fact, all upside.

And I think this conversation has kind of spiraled into a weird place now. When you get down to brass tacks, I think we likely overpaid for Jeff Green, but I'm not super concerned about it, and I have a lot of hope that he matures well in his new role and takes a big step forward this year.

The only real beef I have is when people point to his OKC numbers and say, "Look, he's a perfectly fine power-forward, he should start over Bass at the 4". He was a really bad power-forward, and those superficial box scores don't tell the story of Jeff Green at the 4. We don't want that guy playing 30 mpg for us as a starter at the 4. We want the multi-tool 3.