Hollinger Celtics Preview

[Fan from VT]

For anyone interested, Hollinger's doing his 2 per day in depth team Recaps/Forecasts. Today was Celtics and Thunder.

Link to Celtics:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/preview2012/story/_/page/hollinger-bos-forecast/boston-celtics-outlook

Its insider, so I won't cut and paste the whole thing.

But here are some points that are sure to trigger debate:

From the Overview:

In other ways, Boston was farther off than people realize -- once Chris Bosh came back, Miami won the last two games rather handily, and this team nearly lost to eighth-seeded Philadelphia in the previous round.

this will be their ceiling unless the Celtics get better on offense, where strong field goal percentages were more than offset by high turnover rates and a near-total aversion to offensive rebounding (more on that below).

From the Recap:

By the end, Boston was in a familiar spot: second in defensive efficiency. The Celtics led the NBA in field goal defense and 3-point defense, but they fouled more than the league average, which is why the Bulls had a better efficiency mark overall.

The thing a lot of people didn't understand about Boston last season is how bad it was on offense. The Celtics finished 24th in offensive efficiency, and the core problem was how rarely they got second chances. Boston rebounded only 19.7 percent of its misses (see chart), which was the worst offensive rebound rate of all time. Yes, ever.

Between that and an above-average turnover rate, the Celtics averaged fewer shots per possession than any team in basketball, and you can't very well score if you don't shoot. They shot the ball just fine; in fact the Celtics were well above the league average in shooting and TS%. They just didn't generate nearly enough attempts.

Notice in the chart that the second-worst team in this category, Oklahoma City, was still about as close to the league average as they were to the Celtics. While the Thunder and Heat were bad in this area too, the Celtics were magnitudes worse.

The good news in Boston's offensive malaise is that much of it was the result of the bench, not the core group. The Celtics got an astounding 4,315 minutes from players with single-digit PERs last season, and not one of them will be on the roster this season. If they can just replace the Pietruses, Hollinses and O'Neals of last season with halfway decent offensive players, they may improve quite a bit at this end.

From the Offseason Moves:

Can they amnesty Green yet, or do they have to wait until the games start...Green was a fungible player before he missed last season with a heart problem; guaranteeing him four years (with a player option on the fourth!) at a rate far beyond any rational market level is something we might expect from a couple of the league's bumbling organizations, but certainly not this one.

I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer.

He's then very in favor of the Terry signing, Lee trade, and KG signing, and justifies the Stiemsma/O'neal dump in favor of Sullinger/Melo

From the 2012-2013 Outlook:

The big-picture view is that they'll defend, though perhaps not quite as well, and they'll struggle to score, but perhaps not quite as badly.

The good news, however, is that the added offense, especially from Terry, should take some of the strain off Garnett, Pierce and Rondo. The former two players struggle to create easy looks in one-on-one situations, and while Rondo can be a dynamite set-up man, his own inability to score makes it hard to use him as the focal point.

Overall, then, Boston is poised to end up right back where it was last season. With no daunting power in the East beyond Miami, the race for the second position in the conference is there for the taking. I have the Celtics projected in a tight pack with several other teams, so they could easily finish as low as sixth or seventh or as high as second. But given their recent track record, nobody will count them out in the playoffs regardless of where they're seeded.


Prediction: 48-34, 1st in Atlantic Division, 3rd in Eastern Conference

[rondohondo]

Hollinger is moronic, guess he doesn't take into account that Green played PF for the majority of his career. Any time he has played SF he has put up very solid numbers and shooting % .

He is the last person I would trust, he is a stat geek that doesn't take anything else but stats into account for how a team will preform .

[action781]

The thing a lot of people didn't understand about Boston last season is how bad it was on offense. The Celtics finished 24th in offensive efficiency, and the core problem was how rarely they got second chances. Boston rebounded only 19.7 percent of its misses (see chart), which was the worst offensive rebound rate of all time. Yes, ever.

A lot of what he says is pretty accurate actually, but there is a glaring problem with a lot of his stats, particularly this one quoted above.  That problem is that a large portion of these stats were accumulated in the beginning of the year when the celtics were, frankly, pretty terrible.  I think they were lazy and not trying.  Then, something happened after the all-star break, and if we look at the celtics numbers post-break and including the playoffs, we'd see very different numbers I assume.  And that is the celtics team I expect to see this season rather than the first-half celtics of last season.

[FatjohnReturns]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

[indeedproceed]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

It's all upside because what he's actually accomplished to this point isn't by any stretch remarkable. There is some context to that, beginning with him playing out of position as a starting 4, but aside from Hollinger's last sentence, he didn't say anything false.

[MJohnnyboy]

Back in 2010 Hollinger said nothing was stopping Orlando from getting back to the NBA finals after the Second round was done.

I learned that year that his system of statistics is quite flawed as I remember the C's kicking the Magic in the teeth in the ECF.

[MBunge]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

It's all upside because what he's actually accomplished to this point isn't by any stretch remarkable. There is some context to that, beginning with him playing out of position as a starting 4, but aside from Hollinger's last sentence, he didn't say anything false.

Jeff Green's career averages - 13.9 pts, 44% shooting, 5.5 rebs, 1.6 assists.

I picked Wilson Chandler's name out of thin air.  Here are his career averages - 13.5 pts, 44% shooting, 5.2 rebs, 1.8 assists.

Does Hollinger say Chandler isn't "any good"?

Now, there's a serious argument to be made that Boston is overpaying Green based on his past performance.  This "Jeff Green sucks" meme, however, is just the latest thing the stat-heads have latched onto to prove how they understand basketball so much better than everyone else.

Mike

[Chris]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

It's all upside because what he's actually accomplished to this point isn't by any stretch remarkable. There is some context to that, beginning with him playing out of position as a starting 4, but aside from Hollinger's last sentence, he didn't say anything false.

My problem with Hollinger's take on Green was:

guaranteeing him four years (with a player option on the fourth!) at a rate far beyond any rational market level

That is a bold statement, that isn't based in fact.  While the heart is a confounding factor, there is absolutely precedent for a market of talented, yet unproven swingmen/tweeners getting the type of money Green got.

If you want to go back to Marvin Williams, thats a pretty easy one.  Tyrus Thomas is in a similar boat.  Thaddeus Young is very comparable.  Nic Batum is being paid more, and is still pretty unproven.  Marcus Thornton and Trevor Ariza were in the same tax bracket.

And of course, the market was set with Gerald Wallace, who is likely on the downside of his career getting his huge contract.

Now, we can quibble about which of those guys are better or worse, but when you look at their resumes and skillsets, they are all on similar levels to Green, and they all were paid in the same ballpark.

So, unless Green's heart is about to explode (and if it does, I assume Insurance covers his contract), I think Hollinger was taking a bit of a liberty to suggest it was "beyond any reasonable market level".  In fact, it is right at market level.  It just wasn't the bargain I think most of us thought he could get, given the year off, and the good will Danny put up.

[FatjohnReturns]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

It's all upside because what he's actually accomplished to this point isn't by any stretch remarkable. There is some context to that, beginning with him playing out of position as a starting 4, but aside from Hollinger's last sentence, he didn't say anything false.

Sure he did. He said"Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good"

The truth is Green in his best two seasons put up 16.5ppg/6.7rpg in 08/09 and 15.1 ppg/6 rpg in 09/10.NO evidence he actually any good? gimmie a break. 

Secondly this "and considerable evidence that he's a health risk"

Is Hollinger a doctor now? The Celtics medical staff has cleared Green healthy enough to play.

"This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

Isnt a little early to declare, without a doubt,  the worst contract of the summer?

 but aside from Hollinger's last sentence, he didn't say anything false. What do you mean he didnt say anything false? The whole paragraph is all untrue.

[indeedproceed]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

It's all upside because what he's actually accomplished to this point isn't by any stretch remarkable. There is some context to that, beginning with him playing out of position as a starting 4, but aside from Hollinger's last sentence, he didn't say anything false.

Jeff Green's career averages - 13.9 pts, 44% shooting, 5.5 rebs, 1.6 assists.

I picked Wilson Chandler's name out of thin air.  Here are his career averages - 13.5 pts, 44% shooting, 5.2 rebs, 1.8 assists.

Does Hollinger say Chandler isn't "any good"?

Now, there's a serious argument to be made that Boston is overpaying Green based on his past performance.  This "Jeff Green sucks" meme, however, is just the latest thing the stat-heads have latched onto to prove how they understand basketball so much better than everyone else.

Mike

Jeff Green's career averages don't knock Hollinger's point. They look okay without context, but when you factor in it was over 34 minutes per game, with atrocious defense as a 4, its not only unimpressive, its below average. He's an okay scorer as a mismatch 4, terrible defender at the 4, terrible rebounder.

Like someone said earlier, it is all upside with Jeff Green. We didn't sign him for what he was, we signed him because we thought he could be better if used right.

[Chris]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

It's all upside because what he's actually accomplished to this point isn't by any stretch remarkable. There is some context to that, beginning with him playing out of position as a starting 4, but aside from Hollinger's last sentence, he didn't say anything false.

Jeff Green's career averages - 13.9 pts, 44% shooting, 5.5 rebs, 1.6 assists.

I picked Wilson Chandler's name out of thin air.  Here are his career averages - 13.5 pts, 44% shooting, 5.2 rebs, 1.8 assists.

Does Hollinger say Chandler isn't "any good"?

Now, there's a serious argument to be made that Boston is overpaying Green based on his past performance.  This "Jeff Green sucks" meme, however, is just the latest thing the stat-heads have latched onto to prove how they understand basketball so much better than everyone else.

Mike

Jeff Green's career averages don't knock Hollinger's point. They look okay without context, but when you factor in it was over 34 minutes per game, with atrocious defense as a 4, its not only unimpressive, its below average. He's an okay scorer as a mismatch 4, terrible defender at the 4, terrible rebounder.

Like someone said earlier, it is all upside with Jeff Green. We didn't sign him for what he was, we signed him because we thought he could be better if used right.

But if you are going to throw in context, you have to also include the fact that he was being forced to play out of position, and he was playing with 2 black holes, who only passed it to him when they needed to be bailed out.  Context goes both ways.

[wdleehi]

Why do we keep mistaking "overpayed' with "not a good player"?




I agree Green was overpayed. 



He had to many "could be" to get that type of deal.


He "could be" healthy for the rest of his career.


He "could be" great at SF.

[j804]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

It's all upside because what he's actually accomplished to this point isn't by any stretch remarkable. There is some context to that, beginning with him playing out of position as a starting 4, but aside from Hollinger's last sentence, he didn't say anything false.

Jeff Green's career averages - 13.9 pts, 44% shooting, 5.5 rebs, 1.6 assists.

I picked Wilson Chandler's name out of thin air.  Here are his career averages - 13.5 pts, 44% shooting, 5.2 rebs, 1.8 assists.

Does Hollinger say Chandler isn't "any good"?

Now, there's a serious argument to be made that Boston is overpaying Green based on his past performance.  This "Jeff Green sucks" meme, however, is just the latest thing the stat-heads have latched onto to prove how they understand basketball so much better than everyone else.

Mike

Jeff Green's career averages don't knock Hollinger's point. They look okay without context, but when you factor in it was over 34 minutes per game, with atrocious defense as a 4, its not only unimpressive, its below average. He's an okay scorer as a mismatch 4, terrible defender at the 4, terrible rebounder.

Like someone said earlier, it is all upside with Jeff Green. We didn't sign him for what he was, we signed him because we thought he could be better if used right.

But if you are going to throw in context, you have to also include the fact that he was being forced to play out of position, and he was playing with 2 black holes, who only passed it to him when they needed to be bailed out.  Context goes both ways.

Good point well said

[indeedproceed]

Quote


"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

This is just crap. When the year is finished there is a strong possibility that it could be the best contract of the summer.

Green is young,big,athletic and wants to be a Celtic. He is going to be the goto guy on the second unit, he will get more opportunities this year than any previoulsy and he will deliver.

Its all upside with Green.

It's all upside because what he's actually accomplished to this point isn't by any stretch remarkable. There is some context to that, beginning with him playing out of position as a starting 4, but aside from Hollinger's last sentence, he didn't say anything false.

Jeff Green's career averages - 13.9 pts, 44% shooting, 5.5 rebs, 1.6 assists.

I picked Wilson Chandler's name out of thin air.  Here are his career averages - 13.5 pts, 44% shooting, 5.2 rebs, 1.8 assists.

Does Hollinger say Chandler isn't "any good"?

Now, there's a serious argument to be made that Boston is overpaying Green based on his past performance.  This "Jeff Green sucks" meme, however, is just the latest thing the stat-heads have latched onto to prove how they understand basketball so much better than everyone else.

Mike

Jeff Green's career averages don't knock Hollinger's point. They look okay without context, but when you factor in it was over 34 minutes per game, with atrocious defense as a 4, its not only unimpressive, its below average. He's an okay scorer as a mismatch 4, terrible defender at the 4, terrible rebounder.

Like someone said earlier, it is all upside with Jeff Green. We didn't sign him for what he was, we signed him because we thought he could be better if used right.

But if you are going to throw in context, you have to also include the fact that he was being forced to play out of position, and he was playing with 2 black holes, who only passed it to him when they needed to be bailed out.  Context goes both ways.

I said it in the first response. Come on, Chris! If you're not going to go over what I say with a fine-toothed-comb, why are we here?

[Chris]

Why do we keep mistaking "overpayed' with "not a good player"?




I agree Green was overpayed. 



He had to many "could be" to get that type of deal.


He "could be" healthy for the rest of his career.


He "could be" great at SF.

Right.  My problem is that I am not sure the evidence is there that he is all that overpaid. 

I think what we have just seen is a precedent that heart surgery does not necessarily affect a players value (actually, I think we saw that with Eddie Curry already).

And when you take the heart surgery out of the equation, he ended up right around market value. 

I said it in the first response. Come on, Chris! If you're not going to go over what I say with a fine-toothed-comb, why are we here?

Reading everything thoroughly gets in the way of my grandstanding.