Author Topic: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013  (Read 11258 times)

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Offline gotjoker?

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Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #75 on: August 27, 2012, 04:12:07 PM »
I also want to add something in relation to Pierce.

Unlike Pierce, Rondo is like a young Garnett in the sense that he's talented enough to rank among the elite talents in the league at his position.  I think Pierce was impressive when he was younger but never quite reached a plateau that would've gain him first place votes for the regular season MVP award in any season.  But then, part of that is likely based on league perception.  Was he great to people not Boston fans? Also, you could argue that Pierce could've shared the Rookie Of The Year award with Vince Carter.  Their regular season statistics for the 1998-1999 season would indicate that way.

I guess what I'm saying is that I don't want to rule out any possibility here.  And my opinion isn't in anyway a slight against Pierce.  But I feel as if the media can acknowledge that Rondo is an elite talent in the league worthy of a conversation for whom is the best point guard in the NBA.  On the other hand, I don't ever recall the media outside of the local media ever wondering if Pierce is an elite talent or deserves to be mentioned among the best players not just at small forward in the NBA.

Boston fans want Rondo to get MVP votes one year just liked they'd wanted Pierce to get votes one year.  The difference is, it can be a reality for Rondo if he truly desires it.  I don't believe Pierce was ever perceived to be good enough outside of Massachusetts.  Again, it's about perception and statistics.  Statistics means impact on the league.  It seems unfair to me but Pierce had an impact on the league.  It just wasn't big or loud enough for most people to take notice.

Offline BballTim

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Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #76 on: August 27, 2012, 04:28:30 PM »
It's an interesting question.  Rondo is hands down not the most valuable player on the Celtics...that's Kevin Garnett.  But Garnett has absolutely zero chance at garnering national attention unless both Rondo and Pierce get hurt this year.  Rondo, on the other hand, is square in the public eye both nationally and among fans.  So, as ironic as it is, I do think Rondo is probably the biggest potential MVP candidate of this team...even though he's not actually the MVP of the team.

  Garnett won't get much national attention if PP and Rondo are hurt because he's really not going to be able to do much on his own offensively at this stage in his career. I think that KG's the MVP in terms of being the most indispensible because there's nobody else on the roster that can replace what he does but I don't think that's the criteria the voters use.

If PP and Rondo were both hurt, perhaps.  With this current team I think KG could carry them through a playoff series without both, but over a season the things he'd have to do would wear him down.  Point to you.

  The team would truly struggle to score without PP and Rondo, I'd say Terry would be the only player in the rotation that could create his own shot.

But I've actually been in the midst of a pretty in depth convo about what if Rondo or KG went down, how would it affect the team.  And as we've worked through the thought experiment, I'm on record that I think this Celtics team without Rondo (but if everyone else stays fully healthy) would win 55 - 60 games and be a contender for the crown.  But this same team, everyone healthy, but no KG would be on the order of a 35 - 45 win team and maybe get a low-seed for the playoffs but that's about it.

Thinking it through has actually been a pretty fun exercise.  If anyone is interested (or thinks I'm a fool for the estimated records I just posted), I'd love to get a similar conversation going over here as well.

  I'd say that the team without Rondo would be somewhat like the Hawks or Clippers or Pacers, pretty good regular season teams but not title contenders. The team minus KG would be somewhat worse, still a playoff team but wouldn't be able to overcome the lack of defense/rebounding. The team faring better without Rondo than KG isn't because of their relative talent level, but the makeup of the rest of the roster.

  To illustrate the point, LeBron and Bosh combined to make much less of a difference to the Heat than LeBron by himself made to the Cavs the year before. It's not because LeBron suddenly became a significantly worse player, but because the Heat had Wade who could replace much of what LeBron added. Another example is the Celts from the mid-80s, who generally fared better during the season with Bird out of the lineup than Parish, mainly because they had a good backup sf and bad backup centers. By your way of thinking the Chief would have been the MVP of the team although Bird somehow managed to garner more national attention in the MVP race.

Offline BballTim

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Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #77 on: August 27, 2012, 04:34:19 PM »
I also want to add something in relation to Pierce.

Unlike Pierce, Rondo is like a young Garnett in the sense that he's talented enough to rank among the elite talents in the league at his position.  I think Pierce was impressive when he was younger but never quite reached a plateau that would've gain him first place votes for the regular season MVP award in any season.  But then, part of that is likely based on league perception.  Was he great to people not Boston fans? Also, you could argue that Pierce could've shared the Rookie Of The Year award with Vince Carter.  Their regular season statistics for the 1998-1999 season would indicate that way.

  My recollection is that PP was clearly better for the first month or so and last month or so (strike season, only 50 games) but VC was better in the middle because PP had a fairly severe ankle sprain that affected his play for quite a while.

Offline Who

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Re: Boussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #78 on: August 27, 2012, 04:47:27 PM »
But I've actually been in the midst of a pretty in depth convo about what if Rondo or KG went down, how would it affect the team.  And as we've worked through the thought experiment, I'm on record that I think this Celtics team without Rondo (but if everyone else stays fully healthy) would win 55 - 60 games and be a contender for the crown.  But this same team, everyone healthy, but no KG would be on the order of a 35 - 45 win team and maybe get a low-seed for the playoffs but that's about it.

Thinking it through has actually been a pretty fun exercise.  If anyone is interested (or thinks I'm a fool for the estimated records I just posted), I'd love to get a similar conversation going over here as well.
That's an interesting idea.

My first expectation would be that team's lack of big man depth flatters KG's value + high quality backcourt depth understate's Rondo game.

Without KG

C  - Jason Collins, Jared Sullinger, Fab Melo
PF - Brandon Bass, Chris Wilcox
SF - Paul Pierce, Jeff Green
SG - Avery Bradley, Courtney Lee
PG - Rajon Rondo, Jason Terry

Jason Collins would need to start in KG's absence. None of the other big men can play average to above average defense. Need Jason Collins for 16-18 minutes a night to give the team some sort of defensive stopper in the paint. Boston would go from one of the best (2nd?) starting centers in the league (Garnett) to one of the worst (bottom 3-4) starting centers in the league (Collins). 

I'd say that the starting lineup takes a major hit as does the team's overall big man rotation. Loses a lot defensively. Their perimeter rotation is still one of the finest in the NBA.

Without Rondo

C  - Kevin Garnett, Jared Sullinger, Jason Collins
PF - Brandon Bass, Chris Wilcox
SF - Paul Pierce, Jeff Green
SG - Avery Bradley, Courtney Lee
PG - Jason Terry, (Bradley)

Jason Terry is an excellent backup combo guard and solid starting PG. I'd say he's just inside the top twenty amongst starting PGs. The Celtics could use Avery Bradley as the backup PG and give increased playing time to Courtney Lee and/or Jeff Green on the wing.

Looks fairly similar to last year's team when Rondo was out.

Without KG vs Without Rondo

In both cases, I'd say they are borderline top ten squads (50 win ball-park) in the NBA with Garnett's team a little better than Rondo's team.

Solid playoff teams that can make it one or two rounds before being sent home.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2012, 04:52:39 PM by Who »

Offline drza44

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Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #79 on: August 27, 2012, 05:14:03 PM »
My take on a KG absence vs. a Rondo absence:

If Rondo went down tomorrow for the year but everyone else were guaranteed to be healthy for the season, the Celtics win 55 - 60 games and challenge for the title. (This isn't hyperbole...I can even tell you how I think it would go):

*Starting Bradley, Lee, Pierce, Bass and Garnett the Celtics have the #1 defense in the NBA and the best since 2008

*KG still does his 5-5-5 plan, meaning that there are three distinct units that get run.  The first unit features Pierce as something like a point forward (averaging at least 5 assists per game) and the leading scoring option, followed by KG with Bradley/Lee/Bass as shooters/cutters that play off of them.  We've seen variations of this unit in limited action in the 27 games Rondo has missed in the past three seasons.  It has been successful in short stints...I believe it would be successful over larger periods.

*The second unit features Terry, Bradley (or Dooling), Green, Sullinger and Garnett.  The main set for this unit is the Terry/Garnett pick and roll/pop (which, by the way, you are going to LOVE this year.  Most of you have never seen KG in a true pick-and-play pairing.  You will enjoy it).  Green will be the primary weak-side scoring threat opposite the pick-and-play, and Sullinger will be the garbage man/post outlet off of the main action.  Bradley (or Dooling) will essentially spot up in the corner.

*The third unit is the one that will close halves and games: Terry, Lee (or Bradley), Pierce, Bass (or Green or Sullinger), and Garnett.  This will be the most dynamic unit on the team, with 5 legitimate scoring options that all have range out to at least 20 feet.  The unit will revolve between Pierce-centric and KG/Terry-centric action, and will be the most dangerous closing unit of the Big Three era bar none.

That team, again with the caveat that no one gets injured, would finish with at worst a top-10 - 15 offense (likely more in the 5 - 8 range) to go with the #1 defense in the league.  Championship contender.

If, on the other hand, KG went down tomorrow with the caveat that everyone else remained healthy, the Celtics would finish with 35 - 45 wins, as either a lower lottery or 7th/8th ranked playoff seed.

*The defense would not finish in the top-10...maybe not even in the top-15.

*Rondo would average close to a triple-double, and the team would run a lot.  If they stayed focused they would be a competitive squad on a night-by-night basis.  But whenever they weren't fully on and/or when they played a good team that was focused they would lose

*By trading season the rumors would be HOT and heavy that Pierce was on the block, and he might even be traded to accelerate a transition to a youth movement moving forward

*The offense would be solid by volume, but would not be very efficient.  Starting Rondo/Bradley/Pierce/Bass/Wilcox the offense looks like a weakened version of the unit that we saw last season.  Rondo plays 40 minutes per game, so he is in there with the second unit a lot as well (Rondo/Terry/Lee/Green/Sullinger) and that unit is more successful against the opponent's second units.  Terry gets to be featured in the 8 minutes or so that Rondo sits out per game, but other than that he is limited to the Ray Allen off-the-ball role that doesn't suit him as well, and he doesn't have a big man to play off of as he has for the past decade.

All told, the fan base would have a superstar to circle the wagons around (as was the case for most years before KG and Ray arrived), and Rondo would not disappoint in the numbers category.  He would build his own personal, loyal fan coterie the same way that Pierce did.  But the team would be watching the action by May...if not by mid-April.

Conclusion: Now of course, this is one man's opinion so you're welcome to disagree with me.  But I ask you, if you disagree...where do you think my above prediction is in error? 

Offline BballTim

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Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #80 on: August 27, 2012, 05:27:42 PM »
My take on a KG absence vs. a Rondo absence:

If Rondo went down tomorrow for the year but everyone else were guaranteed to be healthy for the season, the Celtics win 55 - 60 games and challenge for the title. (This isn't hyperbole...I can even tell you how I think it would go):

*Starting Bradley, Lee, Pierce, Bass and Garnett the Celtics have the #1 defense in the NBA and the best since 2008

*KG still does his 5-5-5 plan, meaning that there are three distinct units that get run.  The first unit features Pierce as something like a point forward (averaging at least 5 assists per game) and the leading scoring option, followed by KG with Bradley/Lee/Bass as shooters/cutters that play off of them.  We've seen variations of this unit in limited action in the 27 games Rondo has missed in the past three seasons.  It has been successful in short stints...I believe it would be successful over larger periods.

*The second unit features Terry, Bradley (or Dooling), Green, Sullinger and Garnett.  The main set for this unit is the Terry/Garnett pick and roll/pop (which, by the way, you are going to LOVE this year.  Most of you have never seen KG in a true pick-and-play pairing.  You will enjoy it).  Green will be the primary weak-side scoring threat opposite the pick-and-play, and Sullinger will be the garbage man/post outlet off of the main action.  Bradley (or Dooling) will essentially spot up in the corner.

*The third unit is the one that will close halves and games: Terry, Lee (or Bradley), Pierce, Bass (or Green or Sullinger), and Garnett.  This will be the most dynamic unit on the team, with 5 legitimate scoring options that all have range out to at least 20 feet.  The unit will revolve between Pierce-centric and KG/Terry-centric action, and will be the most dangerous closing unit of the Big Three era bar none.

That team, again with the caveat that no one gets injured, would finish with at worst a top-10 - 15 offense (likely more in the 5 - 8 range) to go with the #1 defense in the league.  Championship contender.

If, on the other hand, KG went down tomorrow with the caveat that everyone else remained healthy, the Celtics would finish with 35 - 45 wins, as either a lower lottery or 7th/8th ranked playoff seed.

*The defense would not finish in the top-10...maybe not even in the top-15.

*Rondo would average close to a triple-double, and the team would run a lot.  If they stayed focused they would be a competitive squad on a night-by-night basis.  But whenever they weren't fully on and/or when they played a good team that was focused they would lose

*By trading season the rumors would be HOT and heavy that Pierce was on the block, and he might even be traded to accelerate a transition to a youth movement moving forward

*The offense would be solid by volume, but would not be very efficient.  Starting Rondo/Bradley/Pierce/Bass/Wilcox the offense looks like a weakened version of the unit that we saw last season.  Rondo plays 40 minutes per game, so he is in there with the second unit a lot as well (Rondo/Terry/Lee/Green/Sullinger) and that unit is more successful against the opponent's second units.  Terry gets to be featured in the 8 minutes or so that Rondo sits out per game, but other than that he is limited to the Ray Allen off-the-ball role that doesn't suit him as well, and he doesn't have a big man to play off of as he has for the past decade.

All told, the fan base would have a superstar to circle the wagons around (as was the case for most years before KG and Ray arrived), and Rondo would not disappoint in the numbers category.  He would build his own personal, loyal fan coterie the same way that Pierce did.  But the team would be watching the action by May...if not by mid-April.

Conclusion: Now of course, this is one man's opinion so you're welcome to disagree with me.  But I ask you, if you disagree...where do you think my above prediction is in error?

  For starters, your prediction of big improvements to the offense by taking Rondo out of the equation is wildly optimistic. We won't rebound markedly better and we'll turn the ball over more frequently as well. Secondly, while you seem to have thought out your "5-5-5" lineups, you haven't bothered to comment on the close to 40% of the game that KG will be on the bench. There's no way that team, with KG on the bench for almost 20 minutes a game, will be one of the best defensive teams of all time.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2012, 05:37:43 PM by BballTim »

Offline nickagneta

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Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #81 on: August 27, 2012, 05:44:15 PM »
My take on a KG absence vs. a Rondo absence:

If Rondo went down tomorrow for the year but everyone else were guaranteed to be healthy for the season, the Celtics win 55 - 60 games and challenge for the title. (This isn't hyperbole...I can even tell you how I think it would go):

*Starting Bradley, Lee, Pierce, Bass and Garnett the Celtics have the #1 defense in the NBA and the best since 2008

*KG still does his 5-5-5 plan, meaning that there are three distinct units that get run.  The first unit features Pierce as something like a point forward (averaging at least 5 assists per game) and the leading scoring option, followed by KG with Bradley/Lee/Bass as shooters/cutters that play off of them.  We've seen variations of this unit in limited action in the 27 games Rondo has missed in the past three seasons.  It has been successful in short stints...I believe it would be successful over larger periods.

*The second unit features Terry, Bradley (or Dooling), Green, Sullinger and Garnett.  The main set for this unit is the Terry/Garnett pick and roll/pop (which, by the way, you are going to LOVE this year.  Most of you have never seen KG in a true pick-and-play pairing.  You will enjoy it).  Green will be the primary weak-side scoring threat opposite the pick-and-play, and Sullinger will be the garbage man/post outlet off of the main action.  Bradley (or Dooling) will essentially spot up in the corner.

*The third unit is the one that will close halves and games: Terry, Lee (or Bradley), Pierce, Bass (or Green or Sullinger), and Garnett.  This will be the most dynamic unit on the team, with 5 legitimate scoring options that all have range out to at least 20 feet.  The unit will revolve between Pierce-centric and KG/Terry-centric action, and will be the most dangerous closing unit of the Big Three era bar none.

That team, again with the caveat that no one gets injured, would finish with at worst a top-10 - 15 offense (likely more in the 5 - 8 range) to go with the #1 defense in the league.  Championship contender.

If, on the other hand, KG went down tomorrow with the caveat that everyone else remained healthy, the Celtics would finish with 35 - 45 wins, as either a lower lottery or 7th/8th ranked playoff seed.

*The defense would not finish in the top-10...maybe not even in the top-15.

*Rondo would average close to a triple-double, and the team would run a lot.  If they stayed focused they would be a competitive squad on a night-by-night basis.  But whenever they weren't fully on and/or when they played a good team that was focused they would lose

*By trading season the rumors would be HOT and heavy that Pierce was on the block, and he might even be traded to accelerate a transition to a youth movement moving forward

*The offense would be solid by volume, but would not be very efficient.  Starting Rondo/Bradley/Pierce/Bass/Wilcox the offense looks like a weakened version of the unit that we saw last season.  Rondo plays 40 minutes per game, so he is in there with the second unit a lot as well (Rondo/Terry/Lee/Green/Sullinger) and that unit is more successful against the opponent's second units.  Terry gets to be featured in the 8 minutes or so that Rondo sits out per game, but other than that he is limited to the Ray Allen off-the-ball role that doesn't suit him as well, and he doesn't have a big man to play off of as he has for the past decade.

All told, the fan base would have a superstar to circle the wagons around (as was the case for most years before KG and Ray arrived), and Rondo would not disappoint in the numbers category.  He would build his own personal, loyal fan coterie the same way that Pierce did.  But the team would be watching the action by May...if not by mid-April.

Conclusion: Now of course, this is one man's opinion so you're welcome to disagree with me.  But I ask you, if you disagree...where do you think my above prediction is in error?
Completely disagree with this.

First, Bradley is out until early December at best. Dooling, Terry and Lee would have to be the entire back court for a period of two months if Rondo was lost for the season. By the time Bradley came back the Celtics could well be 8-12. The start of the season isn't terribly hard but its not easy either with 3 games vs Philly, 2 games vs Brooklyn, 3 games vs Milwaukee and games against SA, OKC, Miami, and Chicago.

There's no way they could win 55-60 games, especially given that to do so, KG, Pierce and Terry would all have to play in excess of 35 MPG to do it and the team would have to be hot as heck during the last 75% of their schedule which would include all their west coast trips.

Now, I also don't think a KG-less Celtics team would be just a .500 team either. KG's importance to this team lies in his defensive quarterbacking and ability to be a leader in the playoffs. While his defense would be sorely missed in the playoffs, I believe the Celtics have enough on offense and enough excellent defensive players to still win 45-50 games without him in the regular season. I wouldn't expect them to get out of the first round of the playoffs without KG though.

Lose either player and the chance of an Atlantic title, top 3 seed in the Eastern Conference and any thoughts of a ring are gone. They are equally important to this team but in different ways.

That said, if Rondo can throw up 16/11/5/2.5 and shoot 70% from the line and 50% from the field, he would probably get some MVP votes. In a year were others got hurt or had below par years for them(people like LBJ, KD, Wade, etc.)and with Rose gone for the season, he might even get some real run as MVP. But an awful lot of things would have to happen just right for that to happen, IMHO.
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Offline mgent

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Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #82 on: August 27, 2012, 06:07:50 PM »
If anything Dirk strengthens the case for Rondo not making MVP.  You can win simply by being a beast on offense and not doing much else at all.  We can talk all day about how good Rondo is as an overall player, but the award is only about one thing.

  While I don't expect Rondo to win the award, I don't know that I'd call Dirk a beast on offense in a year when he finished 10th-11th in scoring.

Dirk Nowitzki was the best player in the NBA in 2007, and the best offensive player.

You know..until the playoffs.

That notwithstanding, his offensive efficiency numbers were way above board, he was the best player on the best regular season team, and he was shooting 50/40/90.

When was the last time that happened?

  I don't think Dirk was ever the best offensive player in the league, let alone the best player. And while he's a great shooter, I think people get way too excited about shooting over 90% from the line. In terms of free throw shooting in his (better) MVP year, I'd say that Nash shooting 92% from the line wasn't any more meaningful then the fact that he wasn't in the top 85 players in terms of fta/game.
That's absolutely ridiculous.  Dirk has done more for his teams' offenses than most players ALL TIME.  He led 12 straight teams to a top 10 offensive rating, including 3 straight number 1 offenses, 4 total.  The biggest give-away is the difference in the Mav's offense from when he sits to when he plays.

FYI, offense isn't all about scoring, and just like Nash his offensive contributions go way further than what he actually does.  They are indirectly responsible for so much of their teammates' offensive success.

I personally don't know anybody that gets excited by the 90% number.  It's the impressiveness of hitting over half your shots with the efficiency of a post player or Jordan-esque slasher, in the body of an elite 3pt shooter who takes the majority of their shots outside of 7 feet.  It's not all about shooting, Ray's the best all time and he's never been that efficient for a whole year.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2012, 06:16:28 PM by mgent »
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Offline kp4000

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Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #83 on: August 27, 2012, 07:25:57 PM »
Rondo could be if he plays consistently on a nightly bases as he did during the second half of the 2012 season.

By Chris Sheridan
Quote
Player              1st   2nd     3rd   4th     5th Total Points
LeBron James           85   25   9   1   1   1074
Kevin Durant           24      83   13   1   0   889
Chris Paul              6       5       32   35      25   385
Kobe Bryant        2   5   30   39   30   352
Tony Parker         4       3   31      31   22   331
Kevin Love          0       0   4   6       20   58
Dwight Howard       0   0   1   1   5   13
Rajon Rondo         0       0   0   2       6       12
Steve Nash          0       0   0   1       4       7
Derrick Rose            0    0   1   0       0       5
Dwyane Wade            0       0   0   1   3   6
Russell Westbrook    0   0   0   1   1   4
Dirk Nowitzki            0       0   0   1   1   4
Tim Duncan            0       0       0   1   0   3
Joe Johnson            0       0       0   0       1       1

I don't understand who considered Rose, Dirk, Wade, Nash, Johnson or Duncan for 2012 candidates? If Rondo can make the list last season, then he certainly can this season.

« Last Edit: August 27, 2012, 07:31:12 PM by kp4000 »

Offline Celtics18

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Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #84 on: August 27, 2012, 07:27:44 PM »
Post deleted by Celtics18.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2012, 08:27:05 PM by Celtics18 »
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Offline Celtics18

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Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #85 on: August 27, 2012, 08:24:37 PM »
My take on a KG absence vs. a Rondo absence:



*The third unit is the one that will close halves and games: Terry, Lee (or Bradley), Pierce, Bass (or Green or Sullinger), and Garnett.  This will be the most dynamic unit on the team, with 5 legitimate scoring options that all have range out to at least 20 feet.  The unit will revolve between Pierce-centric and KG/Terry-centric action, and will be the most dangerous closing unit of the Big Three era bar none.




Conclusion: Now of course, this is one man's opinion so you're welcome to disagree with me.  But I ask you, if you disagree...where do you think my above prediction is in error?


The bolded portion is where I disagree most strongly with your assessment.  Based on that statement, I am going to make the assumption that you think our team would be better off offensively by replacing Rondo with Terry as the team's point guard. 

You say that the pick and roll/pop game with Terry and Garnett will be vastly improved from any we've seen.  It seems to me that you missed how effective Rondo and Garnett were together in the pick game last season.  True, Terry is a much more effective pull up jump shooter, but I think that Rondo's vastly superior passing and driving ability more than off-set whatever plus you'd get from Terry's jump shooting.  When Rondo and KG run the pick game together, there is nobody in the league better at not just getting the ball to KG off the pick, but also at finding cutters or other open shooters when the defense starts to scramble. 

From a statistical angle, yes, we were not a very efficient offensive team last year, but our main problems were offensive rebounding and getting to the free throw line.  Replacing Rondo with Terry wouldn't improve those aspects of the offense.  If anything, they would suffer even more.

We were still a strong team statistically in the categories of field goal shooting and three point field goal shooting, assists and assist to turnover ratio.  Those are all statistics that clearly Rondo had a large hand in creating.  He has the ability to make the defense react and to find the open man once it does at an elite level, leading to great, open looks for teammates.  I like Terry, but he clearly doesn't have that elite playmaking ability that Rondo has. 

A healthy Garnett, playing at the level he played at for the second half of last year may be as important (if not ever so slightly more important due to his defense) as Rajon Rondo to this team's success, but there is no way that he is potentially worth as much as 25 more wins out of an 82 game season than Rondo.

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Offline bfrombleacher

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Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #86 on: August 27, 2012, 08:59:09 PM »
I don't think any of Rondo, KG or Pierce cares about who the best player is on the team or whose absence will hurt the team most. That's the beauty of this team.

As for MVP, I'd rather have a championship thank you.

Offline BballTim

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Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #87 on: August 27, 2012, 09:25:29 PM »
If anything Dirk strengthens the case for Rondo not making MVP.  You can win simply by being a beast on offense and not doing much else at all.  We can talk all day about how good Rondo is as an overall player, but the award is only about one thing.

  While I don't expect Rondo to win the award, I don't know that I'd call Dirk a beast on offense in a year when he finished 10th-11th in scoring.

Dirk Nowitzki was the best player in the NBA in 2007, and the best offensive player.

You know..until the playoffs.

That notwithstanding, his offensive efficiency numbers were way above board, he was the best player on the best regular season team, and he was shooting 50/40/90.

When was the last time that happened?

  I don't think Dirk was ever the best offensive player in the league, let alone the best player. And while he's a great shooter, I think people get way too excited about shooting over 90% from the line. In terms of free throw shooting in his (better) MVP year, I'd say that Nash shooting 92% from the line wasn't any more meaningful then the fact that he wasn't in the top 85 players in terms of fta/game.
That's absolutely ridiculous.  Dirk has done more for his teams' offenses than most players ALL TIME.  He led 12 straight teams to a top 10 offensive rating, including 3 straight number 1 offenses, 4 total.  The biggest give-away is the difference in the Mav's offense from when he sits to when he plays.

FYI, offense isn't all about scoring, and just like Nash his offensive contributions go way further than what he actually does.  They are indirectly responsible for so much of their teammates' offensive success.

  Dirk's no Steve Nash. He gets about the same number of assists a game as Shaq. He scores well and efficiently but comparing their impact on an offense aside from scoring is pretty silly.

I personally don't know anybody that gets excited by the 90% number.  It's the impressiveness of hitting over half your shots with the efficiency of a post player or Jordan-esque slasher, in the body of an elite 3pt shooter who takes the majority of their shots outside of 7 feet.  It's not all about shooting, Ray's the best all time and he's never been that efficient for a whole year.

  Dirk had an eFG% of .529 that year, Ray's done better 8 different years, or basically half of his career. Dirk had a TS% of .605, Ray's beaten that number 4 times including the last 2 seasons.

  Comparing Dirk to Ray over the course of their careers, they both have almost the same number of fga (about 18k). Dirk has 2200 more fta, so that's roughly equivalent to 900 fga (for computation purposes). They have almost identical TS% for their careers. Ray has about 500 more turnovers but he also has 1300 more assists. They also, oddly enough, have almost the same number of offensive rebounds (Dirk has about 80 more). Dirk, from the extra fta, has scored about 1000 more points, but overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.

Offline mgent

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Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #88 on: August 29, 2012, 10:41:43 AM »
overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.
No disagreement there.  The difference is Dirk has a far more versatile game with a nice array of moves.  As a result he takes less 3s than Ray, and as a result he's managed to shoot over 50% twice.  It also helps that he can go down low on bad shooting nights, whereas we would see some pretty ugly shooting numbers from Ray on those nights.
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Offline mgent

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Re: Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013
« Reply #89 on: August 29, 2012, 10:51:14 AM »

  Dirk's no Steve Nash. He gets about the same number of assists a game as Shaq. He scores well and efficiently but comparing their impact on an offense aside from scoring is pretty silly.

I never compared them.

However, I guess I have to rephrase:  There's more to offense than just passing and scoring.
Philly:

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David West    Kenyon Martin    Brad Miller
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