Broussard: Rondo Could be MVP in 2013

[BballTim]

overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.

No disagreement there.  The difference is Dirk has a far more versatile game with a nice array of moves.  As a result he takes less 3s than Ray, and as a result he's managed to shoot over 50% twice.  It also helps that he can go down low on bad shooting nights, whereas we would see some pretty ugly shooting numbers from Ray on those nights.

  Or maybe we see Ray more often so we notice more of those bad shooting nights. It's true that he misses more shots those nights but he gets more points from his makes. If you look at fg% in games from 07-08 to 10-11 (the last 4 full seasons) Ray has about 18 more total games with a fg% of under 30%. Switch to eFG%, and Ray has about 1 more bad night a year.

  Beyond that, though, you said that Ray's never been as efficient as Dirk's 50/40 year for a whole season. Ray's had multiple seasons where he scored more efficiently than Dirk's best year.

[BballTim]

  Dirk's no Steve Nash. He gets about the same number of assists a game as Shaq. He scores well and efficiently but comparing their impact on an offense aside from scoring is pretty silly.

I never compared them.

However, I guess I have to rephrase:  There's more to offense than just passing and scoring.

  Sure, there's plenty more to offense than just passing and scoring. If that wasn't the case this thread wouldn't exist. But you're hailing Dirk as one of the best offensive players of all time. Yet his career numbers are identical to Ray Allen's, and Ray's not exactly a name that springs to mind when you're picking players who have done more offensively for his team than almost anyone who's ever played the game. Dirk's intangibles would have to be very high, not compared to the average player but compared to other superstars. I don't know that I'd agree with that.

[indeedproceed]

Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

[kp4000]

Gerard Austria@gedaustria It's just Rajon Rondo's first day in the Philippines... And he already got a "Triple-Double!" instagr.am/p/O3-fCvtWug/



Read more at: http://www.nesn.com/2012/08/rajon-rondo-hangs-out-in-philippines-records-triple-double-with-lovely-young-women-photo.html

Looks like he's getting a head start. Someone is about to get their toes curled. lol

[mgent]

overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.

No disagreement there.  The difference is Dirk has a far more versatile game with a nice array of moves.  As a result he takes less 3s than Ray, and as a result he's managed to shoot over 50% twice.  It also helps that he can go down low on bad shooting nights, whereas we would see some pretty ugly shooting numbers from Ray on those nights.

  Or maybe we see Ray more often so we notice more of those bad shooting nights. It's true that he misses more shots those nights but he gets more points from his makes. If you look at fg% in games from 07-08 to 10-11 (the last 4 full seasons) Ray has about 18 more total games with a fg% of under 30%. Switch to eFG%, and Ray has about 1 more bad night a year.

  Beyond that, though, you said that Ray's never been as efficient as Dirk's 50/40 year for a whole season. Ray's had multiple seasons where he scored more efficiently than Dirk's best year.

I guess I wasn't clear enough when I said efficient.  I was saying Dirk shot better.  Obviously Ray is a specialist and all his extra 3s make up for that but I was trying to say that Dirk is more efficient from all over the floor.  He's taking less efficient shots and making them. 

That's not taking anything away from Ray.  He happens to specialize in what is arguably the most efficient shot, which results in boosted TS% and eFG% stats.  That has nothing to do with the fact that Dirk has a much larger and more versatile game.

EDIT:  Not to mention those multiple seasons are once when Ray had Pierce, KG, and Rondo and his numbers saw a spike.

[mgent]

Dirk's intangibles would have to be very high, not compared to the average player but compared to other superstars. I don't know that I'd agree with that.

I guess I disagree with you.

The reason Ray's name doesn't come to mind is because he's no where near the creator Dirk is (both in prime).  He's more suitable to put a horrible team on his back and make them overachieve.  You can always throw the ball in his hands and know you're getting a comfortable shot.

He went up against the most athletic defense and on a team in which he was the only star, and won a championship.  With offense.  If Ray did that he'd probably have a lot more attention.

How do you think he managed to get in the top 10 all-time for offensive win shares?  I never said he did "more offensively for his team than almost anyone who's ever played the game," but I did say he's done more than most.

[BballTim]

Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.

[indeedproceed]

Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.

2nd in PER (behind Wade, who only played 51 games)
2nd in estimated Wins Added (behind Kobe)
1st in WinsharesPer48, 1st in win shares, 5th in points scored, 13th in defensive win shares, 1st in offensive win shares...

And if you filter out guys with less than 50 starts or less than 10ppg, Dirk has the 5th best TS% in the league that year as well, behind just Shane Battier, Amare, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Martin.

On top of all that, he was the best player on a 67 win team, a team whose second best player was either Jason Terry or Josh Howard, depending on how you felt about either.

What part of that isn't a slam dunk? 

[mgent]

Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.

Right, let's look at some people ahead of him:  Dampier, Mikki Moore, Chandler, Najera, Reggie Evans, Biedrins, Eddy Curry, Posey, Turiaf, Pietrus, Diaw.

Efficiency doesn't mean everything when it comes to MVP.  When Pierce was an MVP contender his efficiency was crap compared to what it was in the Big 3 era.  Teammates make a huge difference.

Terry, Howard, Stackhouse, Harris, Dampier, Devean George, Greg Buckner, Diop

That's what Dirk led to the best record.  Four scorers who do almost nothing for their teammates' offense and create for themselves.  The fact that he still managed top 15 in TS% is pretty impressive if you ask me.

Also please tell me how 25ppg is low with Howard scoring 19, Terry 17, Stack 12, and Harris 10.

[BballTim]

overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.

No disagreement there.  The difference is Dirk has a far more versatile game with a nice array of moves.  As a result he takes less 3s than Ray, and as a result he's managed to shoot over 50% twice.  It also helps that he can go down low on bad shooting nights, whereas we would see some pretty ugly shooting numbers from Ray on those nights.

  Or maybe we see Ray more often so we notice more of those bad shooting nights. It's true that he misses more shots those nights but he gets more points from his makes. If you look at fg% in games from 07-08 to 10-11 (the last 4 full seasons) Ray has about 18 more total games with a fg% of under 30%. Switch to eFG%, and Ray has about 1 more bad night a year.

  Beyond that, though, you said that Ray's never been as efficient as Dirk's 50/40 year for a whole season. Ray's had multiple seasons where he scored more efficiently than Dirk's best year.

I guess I wasn't clear enough when I said efficient.  I was saying Dirk shot better.  Obviously Ray is a specialist and all his extra 3s make up for that but I was trying to say that Dirk is more efficient from all over the floor.  He's taking less efficient shots and making them. 

That's not taking anything away from Ray.  He happens to specialize in what is arguably the most efficient shot, which results in boosted TS% and eFG% stats.  That has nothing to do with the fact that Dirk has a much larger and more versatile game.

EDIT:  Not to mention those multiple seasons are once when Ray had Pierce, KG, and Rondo and his numbers saw a spike.

  What you're saying about Ray vs Dirk isn't true at all. First of all, in Dirk's 50/40 year he hit 51% of his twos and 42% of his threes. In 10-11 Ray hit 52% of his twos and 44% of his threes. Ray just took a lot more threes than Dirk so that dragged down his overall fg%. Beyond that, you can check out their fg% for different distances from the basket for the last 5 years from hoopdata. Dirk looks like he's a little better from 16-23 feet, Ray's better on threes. At the rim, 3-9 feet and 10-15 feet from the basket, you'd have to do the math to see for sure who's better.

[BballTim]

Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.

2nd in PER (behind Wade, who only played 51 games)
2nd in estimated Wins Added (behind Kobe)
1st in WinsharesPer48, 1st in win shares, 5th in points scored, 13th in defensive win shares, 1st in offensive win shares...

And if you filter out guys with less than 50 starts or less than 10ppg, Dirk has the 5th best TS% in the league that year as well, behind just Shane Battier, Amare, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Martin.

On top of all that, he was the best player on a 67 win team, a team whose second best player was either Jason Terry or Josh Howard, depending on how you felt about either.

What part of that isn't a slam dunk?

  I'd say the not being in the top 10 in scoring or rebounding, not being in the same area code of the leaders in assists and (obviously) not being on the all-defense teams makes it not a slam dunk.

[indeedproceed]

Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.

2nd in PER (behind Wade, who only played 51 games)
2nd in estimated Wins Added (behind Kobe)
1st in WinsharesPer48, 1st in win shares, 5th in points scored, 13th in defensive win shares, 1st in offensive win shares...

And if you filter out guys with less than 50 starts or less than 10ppg, Dirk has the 5th best TS% in the league that year as well, behind just Shane Battier, Amare, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Martin.

On top of all that, he was the best player on a 67 win team, a team whose second best player was either Jason Terry or Josh Howard, depending on how you felt about either.

What part of that isn't a slam dunk?

  I'd say the not being in the top 10 in scoring or rebounding, not being in the same area code of the leaders in assists and (obviously) not being on the all-defense teams makes it not a slam dunk.

Of the MVP's of the last 10 years, do you know how many were not the best player on the team with either the best or second best record in the NBA?

2. Kobe Bryant in 08, Steve Nash in 06.

Being the best player on the best or second best team is a huge precursor to success in the MVP race.

[BballTim]

Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.

2nd in PER (behind Wade, who only played 51 games)
2nd in estimated Wins Added (behind Kobe)
1st in WinsharesPer48, 1st in win shares, 5th in points scored, 13th in defensive win shares, 1st in offensive win shares...

And if you filter out guys with less than 50 starts or less than 10ppg, Dirk has the 5th best TS% in the league that year as well, behind just Shane Battier, Amare, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Martin.

On top of all that, he was the best player on a 67 win team, a team whose second best player was either Jason Terry or Josh Howard, depending on how you felt about either.

What part of that isn't a slam dunk?

  I'd say the not being in the top 10 in scoring or rebounding, not being in the same area code of the leaders in assists and (obviously) not being on the all-defense teams makes it not a slam dunk.

Of the MVP's of the last 10 years, do you know how many were not the best player on the team with either the best or second best record in the NBA?

2. Kobe Bryant in 08, Steve Nash in 06.

Being the best player on the best or second best team is a huge precursor to success in the MVP race.

  The fact that those two votes are right before and right after the Dirk vote makes it seem like less of a precursor at that time.

[indeedproceed]

Well that fun little tangent about how Steve Nash didn't deserve the MVP in 05 but did deserve it in 06 has really run off the rails.

Comparing individual statistics of Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki is irrelevant.

Dirk was the best player by far on the team with the best record, and was the most efficient player in the league.

He deserved the MVP.

  He's probably one of the few players in the league who can ever claim to be the most efficient player in the league without finishing in the top 10 in TS% or the top 20 in sFG%. He was also finished outside the top 10 in the league in scoring and rebounding and, let's face it, his defense isn't his calling card. Whether he deserved the MVP or not is far from a slam dunk.

2nd in PER (behind Wade, who only played 51 games)
2nd in estimated Wins Added (behind Kobe)
1st in WinsharesPer48, 1st in win shares, 5th in points scored, 13th in defensive win shares, 1st in offensive win shares...

And if you filter out guys with less than 50 starts or less than 10ppg, Dirk has the 5th best TS% in the league that year as well, behind just Shane Battier, Amare, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Martin.

On top of all that, he was the best player on a 67 win team, a team whose second best player was either Jason Terry or Josh Howard, depending on how you felt about either.

What part of that isn't a slam dunk?

  I'd say the not being in the top 10 in scoring or rebounding, not being in the same area code of the leaders in assists and (obviously) not being on the all-defense teams makes it not a slam dunk.

Of the MVP's of the last 10 years, do you know how many were not the best player on the team with either the best or second best record in the NBA?

2. Kobe Bryant in 08, Steve Nash in 06.

Being the best player on the best or second best team is a huge precursor to success in the MVP race.

  The fact that those two votes are right before and right after the Dirk vote makes it seem like less of a precursor at that time.

Ha, like all our discussions, Tim, I disagree.

[mgent]

overall the career offensive output of the two players (including efficiency) are extremely similar.

No disagreement there.  The difference is Dirk has a far more versatile game with a nice array of moves.  As a result he takes less 3s than Ray, and as a result he's managed to shoot over 50% twice.  It also helps that he can go down low on bad shooting nights, whereas we would see some pretty ugly shooting numbers from Ray on those nights.

  Or maybe we see Ray more often so we notice more of those bad shooting nights. It's true that he misses more shots those nights but he gets more points from his makes. If you look at fg% in games from 07-08 to 10-11 (the last 4 full seasons) Ray has about 18 more total games with a fg% of under 30%. Switch to eFG%, and Ray has about 1 more bad night a year.

  Beyond that, though, you said that Ray's never been as efficient as Dirk's 50/40 year for a whole season. Ray's had multiple seasons where he scored more efficiently than Dirk's best year.

I guess I wasn't clear enough when I said efficient.  I was saying Dirk shot better.  Obviously Ray is a specialist and all his extra 3s make up for that but I was trying to say that Dirk is more efficient from all over the floor.  He's taking less efficient shots and making them. 

That's not taking anything away from Ray.  He happens to specialize in what is arguably the most efficient shot, which results in boosted TS% and eFG% stats.  That has nothing to do with the fact that Dirk has a much larger and more versatile game.

EDIT:  Not to mention those multiple seasons are once when Ray had Pierce, KG, and Rondo and his numbers saw a spike.

  What you're saying about Ray vs Dirk isn't true at all. First of all, in Dirk's 50/40 year he hit 51% of his twos and 42% of his threes. In 10-11 Ray hit 52% of his twos and 44% of his threes. Ray just took a lot more threes than Dirk so that dragged down his overall fg%. Beyond that, you can check out their fg% for different distances from the basket for the last 5 years from hoopdata. Dirk looks like he's a little better from 16-23 feet, Ray's better on threes. At the rim, 3-9 feet and 10-15 feet from the basket, you'd have to do the math to see for sure who's better.

If you think Dirk having a much more versatile game is false or that he doesn't take higher difficulty shots then I'm not going to argue with you.  If you also think Dirk is a one-dimensional offensive player that doesn't affect much beyond putting the ball in the basket, fine.

You can throw out numbers from Ray's by far best shooting year if you want, that doesn't convince anybody that he has the same game inside the arc as Dirk.