I think it's safe to say that Bass is the incumbent and that Sullinger is going to have to beat him out. With that in mind, I think Sullinger beating out Bass is more complicated than pure talent.
On paper, it seems that Sullinger should beat out Bass. It seems he has a better post game, rebounds better, and also has a good jumper. However, I see three potential roadblocks for Sullinger.
1) Will the Celtics utilize his post game? This is of particular concern if he's playing with the starters. If Sullinger proves that his post game translates to the NBA, that's great. But if Doc isn't going to run many or any plays for him where he gets to showcase it, then it's a wash.
2) Does Sullinger's lack of athleticism at the "4" mitigate the advantages the C's get with KG at the 5? In other words, who guards quick 4s? On top of that, will slow centers now guard Sully instead of KG? And will the C's now lose all the mistmatches they had with KG at the 5? While Bass is hardly Bill Russell, he is fairly quick for a power forward.
3) Can Sullinger thrive as a role player? Bass only excels at two things: hitting the elbow jumper and finishing around the rim. But he's very, very good at those two things. Assuming Sullinger doesn't instantly get featured in the offense, that's what Sullinger might be faced with. By all accounts, he's a good jump shooter. But can he thrive hitting jumpers when he's not a featured part of the offense? Adjusting to being a role player isn't as easy as it looks. Furthermore, can he finish around the rim as well as Bass. While he's clearly more gifted in the post, when Rondo finds him under the basket, we don't need a series of moves, we need a hard dunk.
To complicate all of this, I do think the Sullinger will have to beat out Bass by a significant margin to gain the starting role. If it's just close, I think he stays on the bench. With the new deal Bass signed, it'd hurt his trade value if within a couple of months, he's beaten out by a rookie. I think if the writing on the wall in practice says that Sully deserves to start, Danny will potentially look to package Bass in a larger deal around the deadline.
To wrap up, I really like Sully. When the C's drafted him, I thought Bass's time in Boston was over and I was OK with that. However, I do think that it might be tough for Sully to get major minutes this year when everyone's healthy, particularly since Jeff Green will likely get some PF minutes as well.
Nice post. There are dozens of moving factors that will determine how things play out. Doc could even feel that Sullinger is clearly the better player, even from training camp, and still opt to start Bass for a number of different reasons.
If Sullinger had entered the draft last year, and the Celtics had traded into the top 5 to grab him, we fans would have been pumped up.
A better, longer version of Big Baby with better post game, rebounding, and attitude.
But KG is slowing down a bit athletically, and there are plenty of quick skinny power forwards prancing around the league. Brandon Bass is a better match-up against most 4's than Sullinger.
As many factors as there are in this equation, the biggest factor might be KGs ability and eagerness to guard 4s.
We know he wants to, and doesn't want to guard big centers.
Sullinger loves to body up guys down low and dominate them physically. His low center of gravity will be a weapon even in the NBA.
Taller, longer, and better vertical leap than Big Baby.
The GMs that drafted 10-20 are getting a bit hot under the collar wondering if Sullinger's success on the Celtics is going to cost these GMs their jobs.
But I think Sullinger at power forward might be like Marcus Cannon trying to play right tackle. Just a step too slow.
Like Al Jefferson.
As far as the question of Doc wanting to keep the offense similar to last year's, that will be interesting to see.
You would think that adding Sullinger's post game would be a welcomed addition. Balance the floor and use smarts to kick out and find the open man.
If for some reason Doc wanted to keep the chemistry of last year's offense going, Sullinger might make more sense coming off the bench, especially if Rondo is on the bench and Sullinger can make a Pierce-like impact as a point forward getting others involved from the high post.
When we see Sullinger standing next to Bass, it will be clear that Sullinger is physically on another level.
The biggest factor might be KG's ability or insistence on guarding power forwards instead of just centers.
KG might actually play a major role in the decision over who starts next to him, just as Rondo probably had a large role in deciding who would start next to him when Ray got healthy again and Bradley kept the starting job.
If KG decides the Celtics are better with Bass on the floor, Bass is going to start all year.
The second most important factor, out of dozens, might be whether or not Sullinger strokes the mid-range jumper in training camp/pre-season.
