Ray gone after this season S&T (speculation)

[Fafnir]

Probably will not happen, but there's a chance that Ray doesn't come back for the playoffs.  There's a chance we get swept in the 1st round.  If either or both of those things happen, we'll be kicking ourselves for not trading him when we had a chance.

If a meteor hits my apartment tonight I will also regret not having an ice cream sandwhich instead of going to the gym.

Soooo, you want to be at your apartment when the meteor hits? 

I would think that'd be the one time you'd prefer being at the gym

Naw I go to the gym straight after work, the meteor is going to get me no matter what sadly. 

Man now I really want an ice cream sandwhich.

[slamtheking]

Probably will not happen, but there's a chance that Ray doesn't come back for the playoffs.  There's a chance we get swept in the 1st round.  If either or both of those things happen, we'll be kicking ourselves for not trading him when we had a chance.

If a meteor hits my apartment tonight I will also regret not having an ice cream sandwhich instead of going to the gym.

Soooo, you want to be at your apartment when the meteor hits? 

I would think that'd be the one time you'd prefer being at the gym

Naw I go to the gym straight after work, the meteor is going to get me no matter what sadly. 

Man now I really want an ice cream sandwhich.

Well then, bon apetite

[colincb]

Probably will not happen, but there's a chance that Ray doesn't come back for the playoffs.  There's a chance we get swept in the 1st round.  If either or both of those things happen, we'll be kicking ourselves for not trading him when we had a chance.

What deal are you referring to?

[nickagneta]

As of right now, the Bulls are over the luxury tax for next year but can waive Korver, Watson, and Brewer if they want and get below the luxury tax and be able to offer Ray an MLE contract.

The Clippers are also more than likely going to have an MLE available to them as will the Grizzlies, Spurs and Knicks.

That's five teams that I could see offering Ray a 2 year max MLE deal.

I don't think Ray would go anywhere but a contender and I doubt any of those contenders would want to give up assets to sign Ray for more than the MLE so I have to think a S&T with Ray isn't going to happen.

I personally think he's either here or Chicago.

[Jon]

As of right now, the Bulls are over the luxury tax for next year but can waive Korver, Watson, and Brewer if they want and get below the luxury tax and be able to offer Ray an MLE contract.

The Clippers are also more than likely going to have an MLE available to them as will the Grizzlies, Spurs and Knicks.

That's five teams that I could see offering Ray a 2 year max MLE deal.

I don't think Ray would go anywhere but a contender and I doubt any of those contenders would want to give up assets to sign Ray for more than the MLE so I have to think a S&T with Ray isn't going to happen.

I personally think he's either here or Chicago.

I agree.  The problem is that the media looks at all of these teams that could use a shooting guard, totally disregards salary and other limitations, and then comes up with ludicrous conjectures that Ray is going to said teams. 

It's looking more and more like Danny isn't interested in making a run at any big free agents.  That means he's likely looking to bring back KG, and quite likely others like Ray, Bass, Green, and/or Pietrus.  If he's going to throw short term cap flexibility to the wayside (meaning the next 1-2 years...I could easily see him giving KG two more years to expire with Pierce), I don't see why they let Ray go. 

If the Bulls offer two years at the MLE, I don't see why Danny doesn't either beat that or offer Ray 1 year that pays him 75-80% of what the two year MLE deal would give him. 

As for signing and trading, I don't see a lot of potential.  If Danny didn't think any trades were worth making at the trade deadline before Ray started getting nagging injuries, I can't imagine he's going to find a worthwhile offer now. 

Keep the Big Three together to keep this team competitive, nurture our young assets, and then be primed to make either a big free agent run or some big trades come 2014. 
 

[Carhole]

Why would Ray or another team be interested in a sign and trade? The reason, from my understanding, for the sign and trades of star players is so that they get the max deal possible from their long term team and then get moved to the new team to ensure they are their for the long term....and that is worth giving up assets for to the new team.

In this case, Ray would not be eligible to get any more money from the Celtics than from any other team in FA and other teams can make roster moves to clear spots and not have to give the celtics any value of any kind....

So why would a S&T be an option?

[Fafnir]

Why would Ray or another team be interested in a sign and trade? The reason, from my understanding, for the sign and trades of star players is so that they get the max deal possible from their long term team and then get moved to the new team to ensure they are their for the long term....and that is worth giving up assets for to the new team.

In this case, Ray would not be eligible to get any more money from the Celtics than from any other team in FA and other teams can make roster moves to clear spots and not have to give the celtics any value of any kind....

So why would a S&T be an option?

Sign and trades are not just for max players!

Because most teams that would want Ray are over the cap and often over the tax line. By doing a sign and trade they can sign Ray to the deal he wants and get his services. In this scenario the C's are unwilling to pay that amount or Ray doesn't want to come back.

Rather than have him leave for nothing at a smaller salary than Ray could otherwise get the C's, Ray, and his New Team come together and work something out.

[Army_of_One_Nation]

Frye? Too soft.

[paintitgreen]

S&T would be an option if Ray's market value is over $5 million because Ray is the kind of guy who has value mostly for a contender. In general, contending teams are at or around the cap, and thus are limited by the $5 million (or, in the case of tax-paying teams, $3 million) midlevel exception. So a team may need to spend more than its midlevel space to get him. This is how we got Bass. Orlando wanted Davis, but was limited to the midlevel. So they traded Bass, whom Davis would replace anyway, and got Davis for Bass's salary times 1.5 - $6.4 mil - which is more than they could have offered in free agency. Plus they avoid having to pay two guys more than $10 million for the same backup role, another benefit of bringing in a guy by sign and trade rather than free agency. The team preserves their midlevel exception and doesn't have to increase their salary by as much as signing a guy outright.

That's why it might work for another team to trade for a resigned Ray, particularly if Ray gets a couple of $4-5 million offers and a tax team like Miami wants to go for him but is limited to $3. Or, even if a team has $5 mil to spend, they may want to swap out some of their current salary so they retain the MLE and keep more of a buffer against going into the luxury tax territory. The new tax provisions are no joke. Teams do not want to be paying the new tax, especially as "repeat offenders" (taxpayers 4 out of the 5 preceding years - those teams pay 1.5 or 2 times the tax of other teams).

Miami, for example, would love to trade some of their spare parts and replace them with Allen (though I don't want those pieces). The Clippers may want to get Ray instead of some of their current options - Randy Foye and Nick Young, free agents for whom the Clips hold Bird rights - but may also want to preserve their midlevel to get an actual backup big man. So they might be okay with a deal like Bledsoe and Gomes ($5.7 combined next year) for Ray, bringing Chauncey back for low salary, keeping Foye and then having the MLE and a potential Young sign and trade to get a big man. (I think LA would prefer to just keep Young and Foye and have the Gomes-Bledsoe package available for a big man in a trade.)

The Spurs may be in the same boat, having the place for a guy like Ray but needing their MLE to go after size. I'm sure the Knicks would like Ray, but they have to use their MLE to keep Lin. And the Grizz are within about $9 mil of the tax level, which would be tough for them given their market, and they have to make decisions on restricted free agents Mayo, Speights and Arthur. So if they were to bring in Ray, they'd likely be letting Mayo walk anyway, so there could be an opportunity for a swap.

And if the Bulls are the most likely, it may be worth their while to sign and trade. They already will likely have to cut 1 or 2 of Watson ($3.2 mil unguaranteed), Brewer ($4.37 mil unguaranteed) or Korver ($5 mil with $500K guaranteed) to get Ray. What they'd really want to do is try to trade Hamilton ($5 mil next year, $5 mil in 2013-14 but only $1 mil guaranteed) plus a pick for Ray since that's the role Ray would be taking.  

[jambr380]

S&T would be an option if Ray's market value is over $5 million because Ray is the kind of guy who has value mostly for a contender. In general, contending teams are at or around the cap, and thus are limited by the $5 million (or, in the case of tax-paying teams, $3 million) midlevel exception. So a team may need to spend more than its midlevel space to get him. This is how we got Bass. Orlando wanted Davis, but was limited to the midlevel. So they traded Bass, whom Davis would replace anyway, and got Davis for Bass's salary times 1.5 - $6.4 mil - which is more than they could have offered in free agency. Plus they avoid having to pay two guys more than $10 million for the same backup role, another benefit of bringing in a guy by sign and trade rather than free agency. The team preserves their midlevel exception and doesn't have to increase their salary by as much as signing a guy outright.

That's why it might work for another team to trade for a resigned Ray, particularly if Ray gets a couple of $4-5 million offers and a tax team like Miami wants to go for him but is limited to $3. Or, even if a team has $5 mil to spend, they may want to swap out some of their current salary so they retain the MLE and keep more of a buffer against going into the luxury tax territory. The new tax provisions are no joke. Teams do not want to be paying the new tax, especially as "repeat offenders" (taxpayers 4 out of the 5 preceding years - those teams pay 1.5 or 2 times the tax of other teams).

Miami, for example, would love to trade some of their spare parts and replace them with Allen (though I don't want those pieces). The Clippers may want to get Ray instead of some of their current options - Randy Foye and Nick Young, free agents for whom the Clips hold Bird rights - but may also want to preserve their midlevel to get an actual backup big man. So they might be okay with a deal like Bledsoe and Gomes ($5.7 combined next year) for Ray, bringing Chauncey back for low salary, keeping Foye and then having the MLE and a potential Young sign and trade to get a big man. (I think LA would prefer to just keep Young and Foye and have the Gomes-Bledsoe package available for a big man in a trade.)

The Spurs may be in the same boat, having the place for a guy like Ray but needing their MLE to go after size. I'm sure the Knicks would like Ray, but they have to use their MLE to keep Lin. And the Grizz are within about $9 mil of the tax level, which would be tough for them given their market, and they have to make decisions on restricted free agents Mayo, Speights and Arthur. So if they were to bring in Ray, they'd likely be letting Mayo walk anyway, so there could be an opportunity for a swap.

And if the Bulls are the most likely, it may be worth their while to sign and trade. They already will likely have to cut 1 or 2 of Watson ($3.2 mil unguaranteed), Brewer ($4.37 mil unguaranteed) or Korver ($5 mil with $500K guaranteed) to get Ray. What they'd really want to do is try to trade Hamilton ($5 mil next year, $5 mil in 2013-14 but only $1 mil guaranteed) plus a pick for Ray since that's the role Ray would be taking.  

TP - very well thought out response as to why a sign and trade with Allen is possible [and now a done deal by your articulate writing]. 

[colincb]

S&T would be an option if Ray's market value is over $5 million because Ray is the kind of guy who has value mostly for a contender. In general, contending teams are at or around the cap, and thus are limited by the $5 million (or, in the case of tax-paying teams, $3 million) midlevel exception. So a team may need to spend more than its midlevel space to get him. This is how we got Bass. Orlando wanted Davis, but was limited to the midlevel. So they traded Bass, whom Davis would replace anyway, and got Davis for Bass's salary times 1.5 - $6.4 mil - which is more than they could have offered in free agency. Plus they avoid having to pay two guys more than $10 million for the same backup role, another benefit of bringing in a guy by sign and trade rather than free agency. The team preserves their midlevel exception and doesn't have to increase their salary by as much as signing a guy outright.

That's why it might work for another team to trade for a resigned Ray, particularly if Ray gets a couple of $4-5 million offers and a tax team like Miami wants to go for him but is limited to $3. Or, even if a team has $5 mil to spend, they may want to swap out some of their current salary so they retain the MLE and keep more of a buffer against going into the luxury tax territory. The new tax provisions are no joke. Teams do not want to be paying the new tax, especially as "repeat offenders" (taxpayers 4 out of the 5 preceding years - those teams pay 1.5 or 2 times the tax of other teams).

Miami, for example, would love to trade some of their spare parts and replace them with Allen (though I don't want those pieces). The Clippers may want to get Ray instead of some of their current options - Randy Foye and Nick Young, free agents for whom the Clips hold Bird rights - but may also want to preserve their midlevel to get an actual backup big man. So they might be okay with a deal like Bledsoe and Gomes ($5.7 combined next year) for Ray, bringing Chauncey back for low salary, keeping Foye and then having the MLE and a potential Young sign and trade to get a big man. (I think LA would prefer to just keep Young and Foye and have the Gomes-Bledsoe package available for a big man in a trade.)

The Spurs may be in the same boat, having the place for a guy like Ray but needing their MLE to go after size. I'm sure the Knicks would like Ray, but they have to use their MLE to keep Lin. And the Grizz are within about $9 mil of the tax level, which would be tough for them given their market, and they have to make decisions on restricted free agents Mayo, Speights and Arthur. So if they were to bring in Ray, they'd likely be letting Mayo walk anyway, so there could be an opportunity for a swap.

And if the Bulls are the most likely, it may be worth their while to sign and trade. They already will likely have to cut 1 or 2 of Watson ($3.2 mil unguaranteed), Brewer ($4.37 mil unguaranteed) or Korver ($5 mil with $500K guaranteed) to get Ray. What they'd really want to do is try to trade Hamilton ($5 mil next year, $5 mil in 2013-14 but only $1 mil guaranteed) plus a pick for Ray since that's the role Ray would be taking.  

I think you make good points.  However, I can't think that we'd want Bledsoe + Gomes or Hamilton + pick 30 in the first round. Brewer (another SG) and Asik would be more palatable.

[colincb]

I don't disagree that contenders would want him, if he was completely healthy.  The thing is, he's not in light of these bone spurs.  I just don't see him getting MLE money.  He either has surgery to address it (so questions of how he'll recover) or live with it (so questions about how much he can play).

I think he can get the MLE from pretty much anybody if that is what he wants to settle for.  He should not have much trouble recovering from a condition that appears to require minor surgery.

His D, while not awful, is ok if I'm being generous.  put him in a system where he doesn't have the rest of his teammates covering for him and you'll see him get exposed constantly. 

Ray’s defensive rating is 102 per 100 possessions - right behind MP’s 101.  The NBA team average is 104.7.  Outside of KG and AB, whose defense doesn’t benefit from playing in Boston?

His ballhandling is horrid.  he makes TA look like Rondo.

Has a better turnover ratio than AB, PP, and RR.  Tony Allen’s numbers are a lot, lot worse.  It’s not close.

…nor does he make a lot of steals. 

Ray has a better steal% than AB, BB, KG and MP.
 

At this stage, someone that wants him is looking for that one skill he still has (on a good night and let's face it, he has a lot of not-so-good-nights too) which is shooting.

Ray’s 5th in the NBA  in 3FG% and 6th in TS% despite not having the screens he had in the past and playing on bad ankles for some part of the season.  Leads all players in the Boston rotation for 3FG%, eFG%, and TS%.  Ray’s 4th on the team in PER and his net offensive-defensive rating per 100 possessions is tied with KG for 2nd on the team which belies your claim that he’s a one trick pony.  Was the best player on the team earlier in the season too IMO.

I'm fine with him going elsewhere as long as we can get a shooter for our bench for less money.  Preferably Pietrus who'll cost less, can hit outside shots, drives to the basket more frequently (head injury not withstanding) and plays much better defense at both wing positions.

Pietrus is shooting 38.5% and 34% from beyond the arc this year and his career numbers aren't anything special. MP's a lot worse shooter than Ray.

What other shooter do you think we could get for cheap who is any good?  Ray, Jamal Crawford, Lou Williams, and squat are what are available as unrestricted free agents.  Crawford and Williams are both volume scorers rather than good shooters.  I’d take Ray for two years from that bunch.

[LarBrd33]

Probably will not happen, but there's a chance that Ray doesn't come back for the playoffs.  There's a chance we get swept in the 1st round.  If either or both of those things happen, we'll be kicking ourselves for not trading him when we had a chance.

If a meteor hits my apartment tonight I will also regret not having an ice cream sandwhich instead of going to the gym.

Injuries and upsets happen, there is rarely a case where you've made all the right moves in retrospect. Hindsight is awesome like that.

Eh... odds are a bit different, I'd say.  It doesn't sound too promising with Ray... and last I checked, Atlanta had a better record than Boston.  Don't get me wrong... things have looked significantly better recently, but at the time of the deadline we weren't looking too hot.  If we putter out in the playoffs (certainly possible), we'll look like a bunch of jackwads for not moving Ray when we had a chance.  

A lot more  possible than a meteor hitting your house.

[goCeltics]

The Bulls will need their MLE for Omer, they don't have his bird rights and will need the MLE to match any offers, Knicks are in the same boat with Lin and so are we with Steamer.

Thunder might be able to offer allen at the MLE level and like us will be able to offer a no trade clause because of rays time at seattle.

The Spurs will also be able to offer a MLE and so will the Clips.

[action781]

If Ray really is gone (as has been rumored) what is the likely hood that he is used in a S&T? I searched quickly and haven't been able to find any precedent for an aged star being used in a S&T. Most S&Ts are stars looking to get max $ while jumping ship to new teams (lebron,Amare, etc).

If Ray is resigned for say 2 years at 6mill each. Who would be interested enough in his services to potentially give up worth while assets for him?

Would any teams do the following S&T (I find all very unlikely)

Ray to the bulls for resigned Asik?

Ray to the Thunder for Aldrich and Cook?

Ray to Memphis for resigned Mayo?

Ray to the Suns for Frye

Ray plus both 1sts and JJJ to Utah for Milsap?

The Bulls and Grizzlies deals make no sense.  The celtics are going to be under the cap, so they could just sign those free agents outright without helping the other teams in the process if the celts prefer those players over Ray.  A draft pick would need to be thrown in and I don't see either team doing it.

I have zero interest in Frye and his contract.

Aldrich and Cook are both very "meh" players in my book.

The Utah deal would be somewhat intriguing to me.  No actually it doesn't interest me.  I don't think it would make the celts contenders, it would put them at risk of losing Milsap the following season, and we'd lose 2 first round draft picks in the process.  But if you think this deal would help the celtics contend at some point over the next 3-4 years, then it's a deal worth making.  I don't though.