Hollinger picks Bradley for 1st team all defense, but leaves Rondo off?

[Fafnir]

I just think Rondo gets picked off by screens, it happens. Bradley is much better at fighting through them, that doesn't make Rondo bad.

My thought is that perhaps Rondo's unadjusted on/off defensive numbers isn't about Rondo. Rather if he's out Bradely has been in at the PG position, so it could just be saying Bradley is that awesome of a defensive 1.

  Rondo was playing about 40 minutes a game at the beginning of the year when KG looked like he was in his 40s and PP was dealing with his heel injuries and Bradley was probably playing 5 minutes a game then. That had a lot to do with Rondo's overall numbers. Bradley does better against bigger players (sg) than Rondo but isn't any better against pgs.

He's played 36 MPG while our defense has been on fire too, I don't think the early games where the C's were poor defensively would skew such a large overall minute sample as much as you imply.

  That was over a quarter of the games that Rondo's played this year. How much larger would that number have to be to skew his stats?

Those games still counted, and after the initial 10 or so game stretch we've been the best defensive team in the league.

Meanwhile Rondo's minutes per game have held pretty steady overall, your assertion that he played huge minutes really isn't true. Rondo when in the line up at all always has played big minutes this year.

By now the numbers should have reflected that but they haven't. He and Ray Allen are the only heavy rotation players who have a negative on/off court number defensively. That means something, my guess is that it means that Bradley (Rondo's backup) and Pietrus/Bradley/whomever (Ray's backup) play better defense than them.

Now it could be that the backups play more of their overall minutes with KG than Rondo does, but given his sub patterns I don't think that's true.

  I'd say that Rondo, out of all of the rotation, played the highest percentage of his minutes at the beginning of the year. And at the time his defensive on/off numbers were pretty good at the time. Bradley's individual numbers are comparable to Rondo's, not really better.

You can say it, that doesn't make it true. Look at his game logs and splits:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rondora01/splits/2012/

compare those to Pauls, KGs, or Rays:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/garneke01/splits/2012/
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/allenra02/splits/2012/
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/piercpa01/splits/2012/

The minutes played the first half and first two months even aren't noticably different among our starters. Rajon played a few more minutes than KG/Ray but that's been the case all year, he plays more MPG.

Just because you don't like/agree with what the on/off numbers seem to indicate doesn't mean the data is skewed by our early swoon and Rajon's early minutes. There just isn't anything to support that theory.

[CelticHooligan3]

I just think Rondo gets picked off by screens, it happens. Bradley is much better at fighting through them, that doesn't make Rondo bad.

My thought is that perhaps Rondo's unadjusted on/off defensive numbers isn't about Rondo. Rather if he's out Bradely has been in at the PG position, so it could just be saying Bradley is that awesome of a defensive 1.

You'd have to run this by CoachBo but i was always under the impression that fighting throught the screen was an effort stat. I was taught that depending on your opponent you either slide behind the screener if the player is more likely to drive to the basket or pass the ball or go over the top if the player is a good shooter.

Fighting over the top is all effort though because your usually at least a half a step behind the player your chasing. And if the big doesnt call out the screen it can be very hazardous to a guards health. Its not pretty and its definatley one of those plays you rarely get recognized for. But in a good defense your teammates depend on it.

[Fafnir]

What you say is right Hooligan, but Rondo isn't a magnet by any means. Bradley is just one of the best at the league I've seen this entire year when it comes to getting over screens.

[snively]

He and Ray Allen are the only heavy rotation players who have a negative on/off court number defensively. That means something, my guess is that it means that Bradley (Rondo's backup) and Pietrus/Bradley/whomever (Ray's backup) play better defense than them.

Now it could be that the backups play more of their overall minutes with KG than Rondo does, but given his sub patterns I don't think that's true.

From what I've seen the team has had great defensive success with Avery/Pietrus, Rondo/Avery and Rondo/Pietrus.  The defensive problems have emerged whenever Ray's on the court.  I think the numbers penalize Rondo a bit for spending so much time with Ray in the backcourt.

[moiso]

What you say is right Hooligan, but Rondo isn't a magnet by any means. Bradley is just one of the best at the league I've seen this entire year when it comes to getting over screens.

Yep.  And it's not like he said Rondo isn't good.  He just picked three others that he thinks are having a better defensive year.
Rondo has a lot more offensive responsibility than Bradley and it's obvious to me that Bradley puts more effort into the defensive end than Rondo, because defense is Bradley's specialty.

[Fafnir]

He and Ray Allen are the only heavy rotation players who have a negative on/off court number defensively. That means something, my guess is that it means that Bradley (Rondo's backup) and Pietrus/Bradley/whomever (Ray's backup) play better defense than them.

Now it could be that the backups play more of their overall minutes with KG than Rondo does, but given his sub patterns I don't think that's true.

From what I've seen the team has had great defensive success with Avery/Pietrus, Rondo/Avery and Rondo/Pietrus.  The defensive problems have emerged whenever Ray's on the court.  I think the numbers penalize Rondo a bit for spending so much time with Ray in the backcourt.

Yeah this could be it. Makes sense in a lot of ways he gets doubly hit. He's certainly played the most minutes next to Ray so that's going to hurt his unadjusted on/off, and when he's off the court Bradley has almost always been on the court. Bradley's numbers have been off the chart all year defensively, so that also makes his on/off defensive numbers look bad.

[BballTim]

I just think Rondo gets picked off by screens, it happens. Bradley is much better at fighting through them, that doesn't make Rondo bad.

My thought is that perhaps Rondo's unadjusted on/off defensive numbers isn't about Rondo. Rather if he's out Bradely has been in at the PG position, so it could just be saying Bradley is that awesome of a defensive 1.

  Rondo was playing about 40 minutes a game at the beginning of the year when KG looked like he was in his 40s and PP was dealing with his heel injuries and Bradley was probably playing 5 minutes a game then. That had a lot to do with Rondo's overall numbers. Bradley does better against bigger players (sg) than Rondo but isn't any better against pgs.

He's played 36 MPG while our defense has been on fire too, I don't think the early games where the C's were poor defensively would skew such a large overall minute sample as much as you imply.

  That was over a quarter of the games that Rondo's played this year. How much larger would that number have to be to skew his stats?

Those games still counted, and after the initial 10 or so game stretch we've been the best defensive team in the league.

Meanwhile Rondo's minutes per game have held pretty steady overall, your assertion that he played huge minutes really isn't true. Rondo when in the line up at all always has played big minutes this year.

By now the numbers should have reflected that but they haven't. He and Ray Allen are the only heavy rotation players who have a negative on/off court number defensively. That means something, my guess is that it means that Bradley (Rondo's backup) and Pietrus/Bradley/whomever (Ray's backup) play better defense than them.

Now it could be that the backups play more of their overall minutes with KG than Rondo does, but given his sub patterns I don't think that's true.

  I'd say that Rondo, out of all of the rotation, played the highest percentage of his minutes at the beginning of the year. And at the time his defensive on/off numbers were pretty good at the time. Bradley's individual numbers are comparable to Rondo's, not really better.

You can say it, that doesn't make it true. Look at his game logs and splits:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rondora01/splits/2012/

compare those to Pauls, KGs, or Rays:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/garneke01/splits/2012/
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/allenra02/splits/2012/
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/piercpa01/splits/2012/

The minutes played the first half and first two months even aren't noticably different among our starters. Rajon played a few more minutes than KG/Ray but that's been the case all year, he plays more MPG.

Just because you don't like/agree with what the on/off numbers seem to indicate doesn't mean the data is skewed by our early swoon and Rajon's early minutes. There just isn't anything to support that theory.

  Nothing other than the facts. Ray's in the same boat with Rondo, and unsurprisingly he has bad on/off numbers as well.

  PP missed the first 3 games and he's played 7 more games than Rondo. That means, for those keeping score, that he played 3 fewer games than Rondo when our team defense as bad and he's played 10 more games than Rondo during our good defensive stretch. I don't see why it isn't obvious to you that Rondo played a higher percentage of his minutes at the beginning of the year. For Rondo, it's 12 out of his 48 games. For PP, it's 9 out of his 55. 1/4 compared to less than 1/6.

[CelticHooligan3]

He and Ray Allen are the only heavy rotation players who have a negative on/off court number defensively. That means something, my guess is that it means that Bradley (Rondo's backup) and Pietrus/Bradley/whomever (Ray's backup) play better defense than them.

Now it could be that the backups play more of their overall minutes with KG than Rondo does, but given his sub patterns I don't think that's true.

From what I've seen the team has had great defensive success with Avery/Pietrus, Rondo/Avery and Rondo/Pietrus.  The defensive problems have emerged whenever Ray's on the court.  I think the numbers penalize Rondo a bit for spending so much time with Ray in the backcourt.

Yeah this could be it. Makes sense in a lot of ways he gets doubly hit. He's certainly played the most minutes next to Ray so that's going to hurt his unadjusted on/off, and when he's off the court Bradley has almost always been on the court. Bradley's numbers have been off the chart all year defensively, so that also makes his on/off defensive numbers look bad.

This makes a lot of sense. I never thought that the issue could be the other guards play and the effect it might have on how Rondo approaches his decision to either fight through the screen or go under it. TP both of you.

[Fafnir]

He and Ray Allen are the only heavy rotation players who have a negative on/off court number defensively. That means something, my guess is that it means that Bradley (Rondo's backup) and Pietrus/Bradley/whomever (Ray's backup) play better defense than them.

Now it could be that the backups play more of their overall minutes with KG than Rondo does, but given his sub patterns I don't think that's true.

From what I've seen the team has had great defensive success with Avery/Pietrus, Rondo/Avery and Rondo/Pietrus.  The defensive problems have emerged whenever Ray's on the court.  I think the numbers penalize Rondo a bit for spending so much time with Ray in the backcourt.

Yeah this could be it. Makes sense in a lot of ways he gets doubly hit. He's certainly played the most minutes next to Ray so that's going to hurt his unadjusted on/off, and when he's off the court Bradley has almost always been on the court. Bradley's numbers have been off the chart all year defensively, so that also makes his on/off defensive numbers look bad.

This makes a lot of sense. I never thought that the issue could be the other guards play and the effect it might have on how Rondo approaches his decision to either fight through the screen or go under it. TP both of you.

Yeah, I want to see some adjusted defense plus minus numbers for Rondo defensively. (they run regressions to control for your teammates you play with).

I haven't found any good ones for just defense though.

Overall he has a huge positive effect on the team when he plays.

[ianboyextreme]

I just think Rondo gets picked off by screens, it happens. Bradley is much better at fighting through them, that doesn't make Rondo bad.

My thought is that perhaps Rondo's unadjusted on/off defensive numbers isn't about Rondo. Rather if he's out Bradely has been in at the PG position, so it could just be saying Bradley is that awesome of a defensive 1.

  Rondo was playing about 40 minutes a game at the beginning of the year when KG looked like he was in his 40s and PP was dealing with his heel injuries and Bradley was probably playing 5 minutes a game then. That had a lot to do with Rondo's overall numbers. Bradley does better against bigger players (sg) than Rondo but isn't any better against pgs.

He's played 36 MPG while our defense has been on fire too, I don't think the early games where the C's were poor defensively would skew such a large overall minute sample as much as you imply.

  That was over a quarter of the games that Rondo's played this year. How much larger would that number have to be to skew his stats?

Those games still counted, and after the initial 10 or so game stretch we've been the best defensive team in the league.

Meanwhile Rondo's minutes per game have held pretty steady overall, your assertion that he played huge minutes really isn't true. Rondo when in the line up at all always has played big minutes this year.

By now the numbers should have reflected that but they haven't. He and Ray Allen are the only heavy rotation players who have a negative on/off court number defensively. That means something, my guess is that it means that Bradley (Rondo's backup) and Pietrus/Bradley/whomever (Ray's backup) play better defense than them.

Now it could be that the backups play more of their overall minutes with KG than Rondo does, but given his sub patterns I don't think that's true.

  I'd say that Rondo, out of all of the rotation, played the highest percentage of his minutes at the beginning of the year. And at the time his defensive on/off numbers were pretty good at the time. Bradley's individual numbers are comparable to Rondo's, not really better.

You can say it, that doesn't make it true. Look at his game logs and splits:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rondora01/splits/2012/

compare those to Pauls, KGs, or Rays:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/garneke01/splits/2012/
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/allenra02/splits/2012/
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/piercpa01/splits/2012/

The minutes played the first half and first two months even aren't noticably different among our starters. Rajon played a few more minutes than KG/Ray but that's been the case all year, he plays more MPG.

Just because you don't like/agree with what the on/off numbers seem to indicate doesn't mean the data is skewed by our early swoon and Rajon's early minutes. There just isn't anything to support that theory.

you guys continue to use these on/off stats when a more reliable, less dependant on variables. stat is readily available. Rondo's defensive numbers on synergy are spectacular. His and Avery's are right in line with each other and are both better than guys like Westbtook, Rubio, etc.
http://www.mysynergysports.com/?lid=corpSite

[dtrader]

Bradley and KG first team all defense?  Deserved and good to see IMO, though a bit surprising--even if Bradley is now out of position.

Bradley can't play point guard, so I'd say he's playing at his position now.

I just don't understand how AB (a shooting guard), can get an award at the PG position. I agree, that AB may be the best On ball defender against point guards in the league, but giving a SG a 1st team spot as a PG doesn't make sense to me.  That's like giving d.wade a spot on a list as a PG.  Even when AB was attempting to play PG, PP played point forward, so AB could avoid point responsibilities.  AB doesn't play point, and at SG (his real position), I don't think he's a top 5 defender.  I think Rondo would get my vote. I agree with Rubio on second team.

It's great to see his defense recognized, but I think it's a sort of cheap way to do it.

[Evantime34]

I haven't read through this thread yet but I wanted to chime in. Defense comes down to effort, athleticism, and discipline.

Avery Bradley plays hard defense 100% of the time. When he is on the ball he pressures it hard, when a screen comes he fights through it hard. He rarely gambles on defense and contests everything.

Rondo consistently makes the defensive team for being near the top of the league in steals. This year he isn't. When Rondo wants to he plays excellent defense, however he spends way too much of his time gambling for steals and just free lancing in general. Rondo rarely picks someone up full court.

For me Avery is a significantly better defender than Rondo.

[jgod213]

For someone who pays attention to more Knicks games than i do -- is Ty Chandler really playing at such an elite defensive level?

He must be having an outstanding season considering the field in Smith/Howard/Garnett/James

[Fafnir]

Avery plays all of the backup PG mintues for this team and has played PG for probably more minutes overall than SG.

I think his true position will end up being PG or backup combo guard if you want.

[Fafnir]

For someone who pays attention to more Knicks games than i do -- is Ty Chandler really playing at such an elite defensive level?

He must be having an outstanding season considering the field in Smith/Howard/Garnett/James

He's having a similar year to last year, very impressive. When he's out of the game the Knicks can't buy a rebound.