Poll

What should the Celtics do this summer?

Bring back the same team.  Add mediocre help with MLE..
25 (53.2%)
Go after Deron Williams.
13 (27.7%)
Blow it up and target restricted free agents (OJ Mayo, for example)
9 (19.1%)

Total Members Voted: 47

Author Topic: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?  (Read 9450 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #120 on: April 07, 2012, 05:40:04 PM »

Offline Moranis

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9559
  • Tommy Points: 411
I wonder if one could trade Rondo for Melo. Maybe Rondo and the two first rounders.

Deron and Melo to build around going forward + Pierce and Garnett to provide support for the short term future.
I'm not sure I'd want Melo even though he is better, but if they would give up Amare, I'd probably do that.  Then you go with KG, Amare, Pierce, Bradley, and Williams.  Seems like a pretty solid lineup going forward.
2014 Pick 2 Draft 18th pick of 20
Sacramento Kings
Starters - Isaiah Thomas, Eric Gordon, Jimmy Butler, Dirk Nowitzki, Demarcus Cousins
Bench - Kendall Marshall, Michael Carter-Williams, Vince Carter, Wesley Johnson, Marcus Morris, Miles Plumlee, Nerlens Noel

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #121 on: April 07, 2012, 05:40:56 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10802
  • Tommy Points: 645
I wonder if one could trade Rondo for Melo. Maybe Rondo and the two first rounders.

Deron and Melo to build around going forward + Pierce and Garnett to provide support for the short term future.
Yeah Who I agreed with both of your points.  Signing Deron is a major longshot.  He's either staying in Brooklyn (I still say they trade for Dwight) or fleeing to Dallas.  

But hypothetically speaking, I think adding Deron has the most potential to make us immediately relevant.  And yes, I see no reason why Rondo (or Deron mid-season) couldn't be moved for Melo.  That's the kind of thinking I'm talking about... it makes no sense to trade Rondo for Melo in 2011-12... who would play PG?  But if you had Deron on board, you'd have the flexibility to offer Rondo up to the highest bidder.  If the highest bidder is Melo, then maybe you take that.  If the highest bidder is two lotto picks, then maybe you take that (and free up enough cap space to add a THIRD star free agent).

Seems you'd be in the "sure, I'd offer Deron a contract and figure it out from there" camp.  If I owned the Celtics and you were one of my GM candidates... I'd consider hiring you.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #122 on: April 07, 2012, 05:46:39 PM »

Online BballTim

  • Sam Jones
  • **********************
  • Posts: 22361
  • Tommy Points: 1022
Quote
  Haha. Maybe if you  claim another 20 times that Deron runs a more efficient offense people will forget that it's more efficient than ours when Deron and Rondo are on the bench, not when they're in the game. Or that it's more efficient because of offensive rebounding. Keep trying...

The Nets' offensive efficiency when Deron is on the court: 106.2
The Celtics offensive efficiency when Rondo is on the court: 105.0

I'm sure once again you'll find a way to explain to me that Rondo actually, in spite of overwhelming evidence, runs a more efficient offense.

  So taking a closer look at the Nets and Celts offense when Rondo/Deron play, if you look at scoring chances (fga + .44 * fta) you'll see that the Celts score more points per scoring chance (1.08 to 1.06). You'll also see that 68% of the Celts makes are assisted compared to about 62% for the Nets. Oh, and the Nets turn the ball over more often as well.

  So how do the Nets have a more efficient offense when they convert their scoring chances less efficiently and also turn the ball over more often? Offensive rebounds. That's the only thing that allows Deron to run a "more efficient" offense. Clearly less efficient, simply more chances.

I encourage you to read this article comparing Rondo and John Wall's assist opportunities: 

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/3/2/2838291/rajon-rondo-missed-assist-tracker-john-wall

Quote
While watching Rondo, play after play, I was struck by how similar he is to John Wall in the half court. The way Rondo delivers passes to Ray Allen coming off screens or to Paul Pierce on a catch-and-shoot at the three-point line are very similar to how John Wall passes to Young coming off screens and to Rashard Lewis on a catch-and-shoot 3's. Obviously Rondo is MUCH better in the pick-and-roll game than Wall, but a lot of that has to do with Rondo's teammates being better pick setters and being better at moving to the right area and creating passing lanes.

Quote
Rondo's missed assists per game number is 7.6, which is far lower than Wall's 9.8 by a wide margin. If you add Rondo's assists with his missed assists (9.6 + 7.6 = 17.2) it's almost exactly the same number of assist opportunities as John Wall (7.6 + 9.8 = 17.4). Rondo's Boston teammates convert 55.9 percent of his assist chances into actual assists, while Wall's Wizards convert only 43.9 percent of his chances.

Of course, I'm not talking about John Wall.  I'm talking about Deron Williams... the 2nd best point guard in the league.  The guy's best teammates are Anthony MOrrow and Kris Kardashian.  Despite this he manages to average 21 points and 9 assists.  Throughout Deron's career while playing with UNQUESTIONABLY lesser players than Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett... Deron has managed to average 17 points and 9 assists on significantly higher shooting percentages... while keeping Utah in the thick of the playoff race during his tenure there.   Rondo has averaged 11 points and 8 assists. 

Now you may disagree with me, and that's fine... but there seems to be an overwhelming amount of evidence to support the idea that Rondo flourishes in-part due to his all-star teammates (KG is looking the best he has in years, Pierce just wrapped up player of the month honors and Ray is always Ray) ... My concern has always been what happens AFTER we lose these stars.  Rondo unquestionably has talent... but when you put him next to the likes of ANthony Morrow and Kris Kardashian... what happens to his spacing?  Who is coming off screens?  Who is setting screens?  How does he handle getting double-teamed on every possession like Deron WIlliams does?  How does he manage to keep his assists up with garbage teammates and an inability to hit shots? 


  Did you glance through the comments after the article? If so, you would have come across this:
____________________________________________________
Total makes by Boston so far this year: 1166 Total Makes: 2564 Total turnovers: 500
Total non-Rondo assisted makes: 1166-231 = 935
Total non-Rondo assisted “opportunities” (attempts + turnovers): 3063 – 413 = 2650
Celts non-Rondo assisted makes/opportunities: 935/2650 = 35.3%
Celts Rondo-assisted makes/opportunities: 231/413 = 55.9%
Difference: 20.6%.
For Wall this number is 9.2%.

This is as close as I can get to the number Kev cites in the 82games article, where the league average is 8%
__________________________________________________________

  So in a nutshell the Celts are tremendously more likely to score off of a Rondo-initiated play than they are otherwise, whether he's on the court or not. Or, to put it another way, there isn't overwhelming evidence that Rondo flourishes in-part due to his all-star teammates, there's overwhelming evidence that Rondo's teammates flourish because they're on the court with him.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #123 on: April 07, 2012, 05:49:37 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10802
  • Tommy Points: 645
Quote
  Haha. Maybe if you  claim another 20 times that Deron runs a more efficient offense people will forget that it's more efficient than ours when Deron and Rondo are on the bench, not when they're in the game. Or that it's more efficient because of offensive rebounding. Keep trying...

The Nets' offensive efficiency when Deron is on the court: 106.2
The Celtics offensive efficiency when Rondo is on the court: 105.0

I'm sure once again you'll find a way to explain to me that Rondo actually, in spite of overwhelming evidence, runs a more efficient offense.

  So taking a closer look at the Nets and Celts offense when Rondo/Deron play, if you look at scoring chances (fga + .44 * fta) you'll see that the Celts score more points per scoring chance (1.08 to 1.06). You'll also see that 68% of the Celts makes are assisted compared to about 62% for the Nets. Oh, and the Nets turn the ball over more often as well.

  So how do the Nets have a more efficient offense when they convert their scoring chances less efficiently and also turn the ball over more often? Offensive rebounds. That's the only thing that allows Deron to run a "more efficient" offense. Clearly less efficient, simply more chances.

I encourage you to read this article comparing Rondo and John Wall's assist opportunities: 

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/3/2/2838291/rajon-rondo-missed-assist-tracker-john-wall

Quote
While watching Rondo, play after play, I was struck by how similar he is to John Wall in the half court. The way Rondo delivers passes to Ray Allen coming off screens or to Paul Pierce on a catch-and-shoot at the three-point line are very similar to how John Wall passes to Young coming off screens and to Rashard Lewis on a catch-and-shoot 3's. Obviously Rondo is MUCH better in the pick-and-roll game than Wall, but a lot of that has to do with Rondo's teammates being better pick setters and being better at moving to the right area and creating passing lanes.

Quote
Rondo's missed assists per game number is 7.6, which is far lower than Wall's 9.8 by a wide margin. If you add Rondo's assists with his missed assists (9.6 + 7.6 = 17.2) it's almost exactly the same number of assist opportunities as John Wall (7.6 + 9.8 = 17.4). Rondo's Boston teammates convert 55.9 percent of his assist chances into actual assists, while Wall's Wizards convert only 43.9 percent of his chances.

Of course, I'm not talking about John Wall.  I'm talking about Deron Williams... the 2nd best point guard in the league.  The guy's best teammates are Anthony MOrrow and Kris Kardashian.  Despite this he manages to average 21 points and 9 assists.  Throughout Deron's career while playing with UNQUESTIONABLY lesser players than Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett... Deron has managed to average 17 points and 9 assists on significantly higher shooting percentages... while keeping Utah in the thick of the playoff race during his tenure there.   Rondo has averaged 11 points and 8 assists. 

Now you may disagree with me, and that's fine... but there seems to be an overwhelming amount of evidence to support the idea that Rondo flourishes in-part due to his all-star teammates (KG is looking the best he has in years, Pierce just wrapped up player of the month honors and Ray is always Ray) ... My concern has always been what happens AFTER we lose these stars.  Rondo unquestionably has talent... but when you put him next to the likes of ANthony Morrow and Kris Kardashian... what happens to his spacing?  Who is coming off screens?  Who is setting screens?  How does he handle getting double-teamed on every possession like Deron WIlliams does?  How does he manage to keep his assists up with garbage teammates and an inability to hit shots? 


  Did you glance through the comments after the article? If so, you would have come across this:
____________________________________________________
Total makes by Boston so far this year: 1166 Total Makes: 2564 Total turnovers: 500
Total non-Rondo assisted makes: 1166-231 = 935
Total non-Rondo assisted “opportunities” (attempts + turnovers): 3063 – 413 = 2650
Celts non-Rondo assisted makes/opportunities: 935/2650 = 35.3%
Celts Rondo-assisted makes/opportunities: 231/413 = 55.9%
Difference: 20.6%.
For Wall this number is 9.2%.

This is as close as I can get to the number Kev cites in the 82games article, where the league average is 8%
__________________________________________________________

  So in a nutshell the Celts are tremendously more likely to score off of a Rondo-initiated play than they are otherwise, whether he's on the court or not. Or, to put it another way, there isn't overwhelming evidence that Rondo flourishes in-part due to his all-star teammates, there's overwhelming evidence that Rondo's teammates flourish because they're on the court with him.

The writer of the article responded:

Quote
Most of Rondo’s assist opportunities come from spot-ups, teammates coming off screens, and pick-and-roll plays…. and as I said earlier, I noticed nothing particularly “great” about Rondo’s assists or opportunities that were something I could point to and say, “John doesn’t do that”, or “Wow, Rondo really puts the ball in the hands of shooters much better than John Wall” ..

Matter of fact, there are only two differences that I can see in their passing games -

1. Wall gets way more assists at the rim – mainly because the Wizards have more athletic players – and he throws alley-oops. Rondo almost never throws oops, and has very few passes to players at the rim.

2. Rondo is much better in the pick-and-roll….but a LOT of that has to do with the fact that Garnett, Pierce, O’Neal and Brandon Bass are light years better at setting picks and then moving to open areas than Blatche, McGee, Seraphin and Singleton…

anyhow... That's comparing JOHN WALL to Rondo.  I don't see John Wall as being better than Rondo.  Deron is, though.  What's Deron's numbers?

And honestly Boston in general is one of the top-run organizations and systems in the league.  Rondo's been running this system now with 3 hall-of-fame professionals for 5 years.   I still wonder how well he'd do if he was suddenly playing with Anthony MOrow and Kris Kardashian.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2012, 06:03:20 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #124 on: April 07, 2012, 05:51:24 PM »

Offline alajet

  • Rajon Rondo
  • Posts: 790
  • Tommy Points: 54
Judging by said poll, I'm in the minority here.  I freely admit it.  My opinions aren't popular.  But one thing I always believe is that you NEED a franchise player to win a championship.  As much as I love Rondo (and I DO love him despite what people must assume from these threads), I do NOT see Rondo as a franchise player.  He's an excellent PG.  He's top 6 in this league.  Three years from now he might not even be top 10 (Irving, Rubio, Steph Curry and Wall could all surpass him... Brandon Jennings is only 21... I wouldn't even be shocked to see him surpass Rondo.  You never know)... My point is, very shortly the offseason will begin and there very likely will be a franchise player sitting there in free agency.  My question was simple... do you offer him a contract or not?  I'd do it.  I'd have to do it.  Even if it didnt' work out, I'd still have my Rondo chip and my Deron chip... and those guys BOTH have a ton of trade value heading forward.  You see it as PG and PG... I see it as all-star chip and all-star chip. 

Bring Steph Curry somehow and I say yes, because the two can co-exist, as it happened in GSW with Monta (they got killed in defense, but that's largely due to their inferior frontcourt players).
But a PG over PG? Well, assuming Deron won't be willing to play 2, you'll have to move Rondo, which automatically is equivalent of shouting to every other GM like: "Hey, we have to trade away Rondo. Anyone that can step on the court is acceptable!"
Yeah, I know, I exaggerated it like a million times, but, can you deny the fact that it'd still be a move of desperation?
I'm not trying to go negative with my critics, but I just can't see how this move allows us to build a championship-caliber team in the short term.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #125 on: April 07, 2012, 05:54:59 PM »

Online Celtics18

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8335
  • Tommy Points: 838
I wonder if one could trade Rondo for Melo. Maybe Rondo and the two first rounders.

Deron and Melo to build around going forward + Pierce and Garnett to provide support for the short term future.
Yeah Who I agreed with both of your points.  Signing Deron is a major longshot.  He's either staying in Brooklyn (I still say they trade for Dwight) or fleeing to Dallas.  

But hypothetically speaking, I think adding Deron has the most potential to make us immediately relevant.  And yes, I see no reason why Rondo (or Deron mid-season) couldn't be moved for Melo.  That's the kind of thinking I'm talking about... it makes no sense to trade Rondo for Melo in 2011-12... who would play PG?  But if you had Deron on board, you'd have the flexibility to offer Rondo up to the highest bidder.  If the highest bidder is Melo, then maybe you take that.  If the highest bidder is two lotto picks, then maybe you take that (and free up enough cap space to add a THIRD star free agent).

Seems you'd be in the "sure, I'd offer Deron a contract and figure it out from there" camp.  If I owned the Celtics and you were one of my GM candidates... I'd consider hiring you.

It's pretty funny that we have a hypothetical thread that's eight pages long based on something that has a snow ball's chance in you-know-where of happening anyway.  

But, if Danny decided to go after Deron Williams in free agency for the added value then I think it would make much more sense to trade Williams than Rondo.  As you say, his trade value is much higher and his contract is much higher.  So, he could get back a legit star type player.

I'm not sure who he would fetch back, but I'd like to aim higher than Josh Smith.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #126 on: April 07, 2012, 05:59:01 PM »

Online Who

  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30371
  • Tommy Points: 1276
I don't think Deron Williams would consider signing without Rondo already being gone or at least a guarantee that Rondo would be traded prior to the season beginning ... to allow Deron to play the point.

I can't imagine Deron considering to go to a team that won't let him play his position. The sign Deron Williams and later trade Deron Williams isn't an option.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #127 on: April 07, 2012, 06:03:34 PM »

Online Celtics18

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8335
  • Tommy Points: 838
I don't think Deron Williams would consider signing without Rondo already being gone or at least a guarantee that Rondo would be traded prior to the season beginning ... to allow Deron to play the point.

I can't imagine Deron considering to go to a team that won't let him play his position. The sign Deron Williams and later trade Deron Williams isn't an option.

Is that against the rules?

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #128 on: April 07, 2012, 06:04:27 PM »

Online KCattheStripe

  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10165
  • Tommy Points: 755


Why pay max money for a PG when you can win with

BJ Armstrong
Kenny Smith
Steve Kerr
Avery Johnson
Derek Fisher
Tony Parker
Chauncey Billups
Platoon of Jason Williams and Old Gary Payton
Rajon Rondo
Old Jason Kidd

Bueller?

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #129 on: April 07, 2012, 06:05:08 PM »

Online Who

  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30371
  • Tommy Points: 1276
I don't think Deron Williams would consider signing without Rondo already being gone or at least a guarantee that Rondo would be traded prior to the season beginning ... to allow Deron to play the point.

I can't imagine Deron considering to go to a team that won't let him play his position. The sign Deron Williams and later trade Deron Williams isn't an option.

Is that against the rules?
No ... but why does Deron sign if there is any chance that they may move him in the near future?

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #130 on: April 07, 2012, 06:05:47 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10802
  • Tommy Points: 645
I don't think Deron Williams would consider signing without Rondo already being gone or at least a guarantee that Rondo would be traded prior to the season beginning ... to allow Deron to play the point.

I can't imagine Deron considering to go to a team that won't let him play his position. The sign Deron Williams and later trade Deron Williams isn't an option.
I agree, Who.  I'm just floating the "keep Rondo and trade Deron mid-season" idea to appease the mob that is jumping down my throat and can't see past the "No way would I swap Rondo for Deron" thing.  Lol.   I still think the concept makes sense... if a young top 2 PG is available to add for free, you have to go for it... even if it means moving your young top 6 PG for an equally talented player of a different position.

It's like this... Vlade Divac was a star center for the Lakers.  Shaq became available... they signed Shaq and traded Divac for Kobe.   I'm sure if a brave LarBrd33-esque Laker fan had floated the idea before it happened, you'd have a bunch of Laker fans saying, "NO Way would I give up DIvac!! The only thing SHaq does better is score.  He can't match Divac's passing ability!!... where's your loyalty, pre-internet-boom-message-board LarBrd33-esque Laker fan?!"
« Last Edit: April 07, 2012, 06:13:35 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #131 on: April 07, 2012, 06:08:40 PM »

Online BballTim

  • Sam Jones
  • **********************
  • Posts: 22361
  • Tommy Points: 1022
Quote
  Haha. Maybe if you  claim another 20 times that Deron runs a more efficient offense people will forget that it's more efficient than ours when Deron and Rondo are on the bench, not when they're in the game. Or that it's more efficient because of offensive rebounding. Keep trying...

The Nets' offensive efficiency when Deron is on the court: 106.2
The Celtics offensive efficiency when Rondo is on the court: 105.0

I'm sure once again you'll find a way to explain to me that Rondo actually, in spite of overwhelming evidence, runs a more efficient offense.

  So taking a closer look at the Nets and Celts offense when Rondo/Deron play, if you look at scoring chances (fga + .44 * fta) you'll see that the Celts score more points per scoring chance (1.08 to 1.06). You'll also see that 68% of the Celts makes are assisted compared to about 62% for the Nets. Oh, and the Nets turn the ball over more often as well.

  So how do the Nets have a more efficient offense when they convert their scoring chances less efficiently and also turn the ball over more often? Offensive rebounds. That's the only thing that allows Deron to run a "more efficient" offense. Clearly less efficient, simply more chances.

I encourage you to read this article comparing Rondo and John Wall's assist opportunities: 

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/3/2/2838291/rajon-rondo-missed-assist-tracker-john-wall

Quote
While watching Rondo, play after play, I was struck by how similar he is to John Wall in the half court. The way Rondo delivers passes to Ray Allen coming off screens or to Paul Pierce on a catch-and-shoot at the three-point line are very similar to how John Wall passes to Young coming off screens and to Rashard Lewis on a catch-and-shoot 3's. Obviously Rondo is MUCH better in the pick-and-roll game than Wall, but a lot of that has to do with Rondo's teammates being better pick setters and being better at moving to the right area and creating passing lanes.

Quote
Rondo's missed assists per game number is 7.6, which is far lower than Wall's 9.8 by a wide margin. If you add Rondo's assists with his missed assists (9.6 + 7.6 = 17.2) it's almost exactly the same number of assist opportunities as John Wall (7.6 + 9.8 = 17.4). Rondo's Boston teammates convert 55.9 percent of his assist chances into actual assists, while Wall's Wizards convert only 43.9 percent of his chances.

Of course, I'm not talking about John Wall.  I'm talking about Deron Williams... the 2nd best point guard in the league.  The guy's best teammates are Anthony MOrrow and Kris Kardashian.  Despite this he manages to average 21 points and 9 assists.  Throughout Deron's career while playing with UNQUESTIONABLY lesser players than Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett... Deron has managed to average 17 points and 9 assists on significantly higher shooting percentages... while keeping Utah in the thick of the playoff race during his tenure there.   Rondo has averaged 11 points and 8 assists. 

Now you may disagree with me, and that's fine... but there seems to be an overwhelming amount of evidence to support the idea that Rondo flourishes in-part due to his all-star teammates (KG is looking the best he has in years, Pierce just wrapped up player of the month honors and Ray is always Ray) ... My concern has always been what happens AFTER we lose these stars.  Rondo unquestionably has talent... but when you put him next to the likes of ANthony Morrow and Kris Kardashian... what happens to his spacing?  Who is coming off screens?  Who is setting screens?  How does he handle getting double-teamed on every possession like Deron WIlliams does?  How does he manage to keep his assists up with garbage teammates and an inability to hit shots? 


  Did you glance through the comments after the article? If so, you would have come across this:
____________________________________________________
Total makes by Boston so far this year: 1166 Total Makes: 2564 Total turnovers: 500
Total non-Rondo assisted makes: 1166-231 = 935
Total non-Rondo assisted “opportunities” (attempts + turnovers): 3063 – 413 = 2650
Celts non-Rondo assisted makes/opportunities: 935/2650 = 35.3%
Celts Rondo-assisted makes/opportunities: 231/413 = 55.9%
Difference: 20.6%.
For Wall this number is 9.2%.

This is as close as I can get to the number Kev cites in the 82games article, where the league average is 8%
__________________________________________________________

  So in a nutshell the Celts are tremendously more likely to score off of a Rondo-initiated play than they are otherwise, whether he's on the court or not. Or, to put it another way, there isn't overwhelming evidence that Rondo flourishes in-part due to his all-star teammates, there's overwhelming evidence that Rondo's teammates flourish because they're on the court with him.

The writer of the article responded:

Quote
Most of Rondo’s assist opportunities come from spot-ups, teammates coming off screens, and pick-and-roll plays…. and as I said earlier, I noticed nothing particularly “great” about Rondo’s assists or opportunities that were something I could point to and say, “John doesn’t do that”, or “Wow, Rondo really puts the ball in the hands of shooters much better than John Wall” ..

Matter of fact, there are only two differences that I can see in their passing games -

1. Wall gets way more assists at the rim – mainly because the Wizards have more athletic players – and he throws alley-oops. Rondo almost never throws oops, and has very few passes to players at the rim.

2. Rondo is much better in the pick-and-roll….but a LOT of that has to do with the fact that Garnett, Pierce, O’Neal and Brandon Bass are light years better at setting picks and then moving to open areas than Blatche, McGee, Seraphin and Singleton…

anyhow... That's comparing JOHN WALL to Rondo.  I don't see John Wall as being better than Rondo.  Deron is, though.  What's Deron's numbers?

  The author is a John Wall fan, the post is on a Wizards equivalent of celticsblog. Again, if there's "nothing special" about what Rondo does, why are the same plays so much less likely to work without Rondo running them? The boost in efficiency from Rondo's assists is 250% of the average. It's not slightly above average, but tremendously above average.

  You might want to pay attention to part of what you quoted though:

  "Wall gets way more assists at the rim – mainly because the Wizards have more athletic players – and he throws alley-oops. Rondo almost never throws oops, and has very few passes to players at the rim."

  So put Rondo with more athletic players and he'll get those assists that Wall gets, plus he'll have players running with him in transition (where he's much better than Wall). Look at all the easy baskets Wilcox got from Rondo's assists. It's more likely his assists will go up than drop with different teammates.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #132 on: April 07, 2012, 06:10:45 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10802
  • Tommy Points: 645
Quote
  Haha. Maybe if you  claim another 20 times that Deron runs a more efficient offense people will forget that it's more efficient than ours when Deron and Rondo are on the bench, not when they're in the game. Or that it's more efficient because of offensive rebounding. Keep trying...

The Nets' offensive efficiency when Deron is on the court: 106.2
The Celtics offensive efficiency when Rondo is on the court: 105.0

I'm sure once again you'll find a way to explain to me that Rondo actually, in spite of overwhelming evidence, runs a more efficient offense.

  So taking a closer look at the Nets and Celts offense when Rondo/Deron play, if you look at scoring chances (fga + .44 * fta) you'll see that the Celts score more points per scoring chance (1.08 to 1.06). You'll also see that 68% of the Celts makes are assisted compared to about 62% for the Nets. Oh, and the Nets turn the ball over more often as well.

  So how do the Nets have a more efficient offense when they convert their scoring chances less efficiently and also turn the ball over more often? Offensive rebounds. That's the only thing that allows Deron to run a "more efficient" offense. Clearly less efficient, simply more chances.

I encourage you to read this article comparing Rondo and John Wall's assist opportunities: 

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/3/2/2838291/rajon-rondo-missed-assist-tracker-john-wall

Quote
While watching Rondo, play after play, I was struck by how similar he is to John Wall in the half court. The way Rondo delivers passes to Ray Allen coming off screens or to Paul Pierce on a catch-and-shoot at the three-point line are very similar to how John Wall passes to Young coming off screens and to Rashard Lewis on a catch-and-shoot 3's. Obviously Rondo is MUCH better in the pick-and-roll game than Wall, but a lot of that has to do with Rondo's teammates being better pick setters and being better at moving to the right area and creating passing lanes.

Quote
Rondo's missed assists per game number is 7.6, which is far lower than Wall's 9.8 by a wide margin. If you add Rondo's assists with his missed assists (9.6 + 7.6 = 17.2) it's almost exactly the same number of assist opportunities as John Wall (7.6 + 9.8 = 17.4). Rondo's Boston teammates convert 55.9 percent of his assist chances into actual assists, while Wall's Wizards convert only 43.9 percent of his chances.

Of course, I'm not talking about John Wall.  I'm talking about Deron Williams... the 2nd best point guard in the league.  The guy's best teammates are Anthony MOrrow and Kris Kardashian.  Despite this he manages to average 21 points and 9 assists.  Throughout Deron's career while playing with UNQUESTIONABLY lesser players than Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett... Deron has managed to average 17 points and 9 assists on significantly higher shooting percentages... while keeping Utah in the thick of the playoff race during his tenure there.   Rondo has averaged 11 points and 8 assists. 

Now you may disagree with me, and that's fine... but there seems to be an overwhelming amount of evidence to support the idea that Rondo flourishes in-part due to his all-star teammates (KG is looking the best he has in years, Pierce just wrapped up player of the month honors and Ray is always Ray) ... My concern has always been what happens AFTER we lose these stars.  Rondo unquestionably has talent... but when you put him next to the likes of ANthony Morrow and Kris Kardashian... what happens to his spacing?  Who is coming off screens?  Who is setting screens?  How does he handle getting double-teamed on every possession like Deron WIlliams does?  How does he manage to keep his assists up with garbage teammates and an inability to hit shots? 


  Did you glance through the comments after the article? If so, you would have come across this:
____________________________________________________
Total makes by Boston so far this year: 1166 Total Makes: 2564 Total turnovers: 500
Total non-Rondo assisted makes: 1166-231 = 935
Total non-Rondo assisted “opportunities” (attempts + turnovers): 3063 – 413 = 2650
Celts non-Rondo assisted makes/opportunities: 935/2650 = 35.3%
Celts Rondo-assisted makes/opportunities: 231/413 = 55.9%
Difference: 20.6%.
For Wall this number is 9.2%.

This is as close as I can get to the number Kev cites in the 82games article, where the league average is 8%
__________________________________________________________

  So in a nutshell the Celts are tremendously more likely to score off of a Rondo-initiated play than they are otherwise, whether he's on the court or not. Or, to put it another way, there isn't overwhelming evidence that Rondo flourishes in-part due to his all-star teammates, there's overwhelming evidence that Rondo's teammates flourish because they're on the court with him.

The writer of the article responded:

Quote
Most of Rondo’s assist opportunities come from spot-ups, teammates coming off screens, and pick-and-roll plays…. and as I said earlier, I noticed nothing particularly “great” about Rondo’s assists or opportunities that were something I could point to and say, “John doesn’t do that”, or “Wow, Rondo really puts the ball in the hands of shooters much better than John Wall” ..

Matter of fact, there are only two differences that I can see in their passing games -

1. Wall gets way more assists at the rim – mainly because the Wizards have more athletic players – and he throws alley-oops. Rondo almost never throws oops, and has very few passes to players at the rim.

2. Rondo is much better in the pick-and-roll….but a LOT of that has to do with the fact that Garnett, Pierce, O’Neal and Brandon Bass are light years better at setting picks and then moving to open areas than Blatche, McGee, Seraphin and Singleton…

anyhow... That's comparing JOHN WALL to Rondo.  I don't see John Wall as being better than Rondo.  Deron is, though.  What's Deron's numbers?

  The author is a John Wall fan, the post is on a Wizards equivalent of celticsblog. Again, if there's "nothing special" about what Rondo does, why are the same plays so much less likely to work without Rondo running them? The boost in efficiency from Rondo's assists is 250% of the average. It's not slightly above average, but tremendously above average.

  You might want to pay attention to part of what you quoted though:

  "Wall gets way more assists at the rim – mainly because the Wizards have more athletic players – and he throws alley-oops. Rondo almost never throws oops, and has very few passes to players at the rim."

  So put Rondo with more athletic players and he'll get those assists that Wall gets, plus he'll have players running with him in transition (where he's much better than Wall). Look at all the easy baskets Wilcox got from Rondo's assists. It's more likely his assists will go up than drop with different teammates.

Alright man I get it.  You win.  Rondo is better than Deron.  Fine. 

I'd still offer Deron a contract and trade Rondo to the highest bidder.  Two stars are better than one.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #133 on: April 07, 2012, 06:11:30 PM »

Offline alajet

  • Rajon Rondo
  • Posts: 790
  • Tommy Points: 54
even if it means moving your young top 6 PG for an equally talented player of a different position.

It's like this... Vlade Divac was a star center for the Lakers.  Shaq became available... they signed Shaq and traded Divac for Kobe.   I'm sure if a brave LarBrd33-esque Laker fan had floated the idea before it happened, you'd have a bunch of Laker fans saying, "NO Way would I give up DIvac!!... where's your loyalty, pre-internet-boom-message-board LarBrd33-esque Laker fan?!"

Fair enough, I see your logic.
And I just want to be sure of that equally talented player of different position we are trading Rondo for. Just who is that Top 6 (whatever position he's playing for) player?



Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #134 on: April 07, 2012, 06:14:04 PM »

Online KCattheStripe

  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10165
  • Tommy Points: 755
even if it means moving your young top 6 PG for an equally talented player of a different position.

It's like this... Vlade Divac was a star center for the Lakers.  Shaq became available... they signed Shaq and traded Divac for Kobe.   I'm sure if a brave LarBrd33-esque Laker fan had floated the idea before it happened, you'd have a bunch of Laker fans saying, "NO Way would I give up DIvac!!... where's your loyalty, pre-internet-boom-message-board LarBrd33-esque Laker fan?!"

Fair enough, I see your logic.
And I just want to be sure of that equally talented player of different position we are trading Rondo for. Just who is that Top 6 (whatever position he's playing for) player?





Two things, Shaq was a top 5 player at his position and having a great player at C or PF has a greater impact on winning a title than having a great player at PG.

 

Hello! Guest

Welcome to the CelticsBlog Forums.

Welcome to CelticsBlog