Poll

What should the Celtics do this summer?

Bring back the same team.  Add mediocre help with MLE..
25 (53.2%)
Go after Deron Williams.
13 (27.7%)
Blow it up and target restricted free agents (OJ Mayo, for example)
9 (19.1%)

Total Members Voted: 47

Author Topic: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?  (Read 23719 times)

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Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #75 on: April 06, 2012, 10:58:08 PM »

Offline BballTim

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  How can you seriously use stats that show individual production and don't take things into account like how well they control the pace of the game, run an offense, or create better opportunities for their teammates? That's very misleading as well.

A very good point! Let's do that. Let's take into account how well they "control the pace of the game, run an offense, or create better opportunities for their teammates.

Celtics Offensive Efficiency: 99.4 (25th in the league)
Nets Offensive Efficiency: 100.1 (21st in the league)

So Deron, with far less talent around him, runs an offense that is better than the Celtics - which is actually among the worst in the league.

  It's true that the Nets are about a point per 100 possessions better than the Celts. But with Williams and Rondo both out of the game the difference is 3 points. Rondo makes a bigger positive impact on the Celts than Williams does on the Nets. He also made a significantly larger impact on the Celts last year than Deron did on the Nets.

We could also look at individual production. Let me know which stats of those you'd like to compare either career or this year, because I know you won't bring up PER, WS/48, assist percentage, FG%, career turnover rate, FT%, points per game, etc etc.

  Ok, just for kicks, let's bring up PER. Deron's PER is about 2 points higher than opposing PGs when he plays, Rondo's is about 6 points higher. So aside from the fact that Rondo seems to have more of a positive impact on his team than Williams and also outplays his counterpart by a significantly wider margin, your analysis is spot on.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #76 on: April 06, 2012, 11:33:43 PM »

Offline soap07

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  It's true that the Nets are about a point per 100 possessions better than the Celts. But with Williams and Rondo both out of the game the difference is 3 points. Rondo makes a bigger positive impact on the Celts than Williams does on the Nets. He also made a significantly larger impact on the Celts last year than Deron did on the Nets.

Again, it's a small sample size considering how long the two are on the floor. The stat you're citing is largely irrelevant.


Quote
  Ok, just for kicks, let's bring up PER. Deron's PER is about 2 points higher than opposing PGs when he plays, Rondo's is about 6 points higher. So aside from the fact that Rondo seems to have more of a positive impact on his team than Williams and also outplays his counterpart by a significantly wider margin, your analysis is spot on.

This is...what?

So instead of doing a direct head to head comparison of PER, in which Deron steadily outperforms Rondo and has his whole career (which you, by the way, dismiss as a stat that favors scorers...interestingly enough, Deron has averaged more assists in his career than Rondo, but I'm sure you'll find someway to dismiss that)...

You compare the PERs of each point guard to how their counterparts performed in games against them and then take the difference to measure impact of a game. This is a total stretch for a number of reasons...the first of which is that Rondo plays in a much better defensive system and that having one of the best defensive big men in the game behind you is a huge boon which allows him to gamble a lot more.

 But you disregard that almost every single individual stat, both in sabremetric and traditional numbers, favor Deron. Williams also happens to run a more efficient offense.

But PER difference against counterparts is how you measure that Rondo has a bigger impact? My head


Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #77 on: April 06, 2012, 11:35:09 PM »

Offline soap07

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The main reason they are better offensively is that they are a much superior offensive rebounding team.

Deron doesn't cause that.

Agreed....but you cannot tell me that Deron has nothing to do with it, just like Rondo's shortcomings are part of the problem of why the C's are one of the worst offensive teams in the league.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #78 on: April 07, 2012, 03:29:45 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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my god... the way some of you talk about Rondo, you'd think he was better than Magic Johnson or something.  Good lord.

He's a top 6 point guard.  I love him.  He's fantastic.  Celtics love him.  He's not going anywhere. 

Rose, Deron and Chris Paul are better.  If I could add one of those guys to my team, I'd do it.  The Nets gave up a boatload of assets just to rent Deron for a couple seasons and you're telling me you wouldn't be interested in adding him for free? 

I appreciate the loyalty to the Green, but all my tommy points are going to soap07 for talkin sense.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #79 on: April 07, 2012, 03:43:56 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I'm a little surprised by the amount of people on here who honestly have convinced themselves that Rondo is the best point guard in the league.  He's great... don't get me wrong... but do you guys really watch basketball games that don't involve the Celtics?  His passing ability might not even be as good as Ricky Rubio.  He's got hall of famers around him (Pierce player of the month... KG is throwing his hat in as defensive player of the year) and yet the Celtics still might miss the playoffs this year.  

This is just silly.  A fan just called me "retarded" for even suggesting Deron is better than Rondo.  Come on now.

For those of you who don't understand "big picture", let me spell it out for you.  We aren't a contender this year.  Three of our 4 best players are 35+ years old.  Signing Deron Williams (young franchise player) and then moving Rondo to the highest bidder is actually probably our "best case" scenario here.  In all likeliness we are looking at several years of lotto basketball (as earliest as this season if we struggle over these last games).  I'm seeking for hypothetical long-shots that give us a wild pipe-dream hope at significant improvement next year and y'all are pooing on it, because you're misinterpreting it as "trading Rondo for Deron".  

Again... not saying we would trade Rondo for Deron.  I'm saying we sign Deron (27 year old franchise point guard) and trade Rondo for to the highest bidder (Complimentary allstar in his 20s).   All you folks poo-pooing on the idea tell me how else we are going to end up with two young allstars next year + Paul Pierce and MAYBE KG...

Sure, we can wait until 2 years from now and try our luck.  Fine.  Let's try that.  But Danny is a smart GM... I'm sure he'll try his luck this offseason to expedite the process.  

Sometimes it's hard NOT to respond in a condescending manner when I read some of the posts in this thread.  Let me try to make this easier.  Say you are starving to death.  You have a shiny green apple, an old orange and an old banana.  What if I told you that there was a way to have Two red apples, an old orange and an old banana.  What equals more food?  I see it as an upgrade of 1 apple to 2 apples... you guys see it as "NO WAY... Can't give up the green apple!.. it's green!... Green apples are way better!"
« Last Edit: April 07, 2012, 03:49:03 AM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #80 on: April 07, 2012, 04:16:02 AM »

Offline mr. dee

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You can't convince people that Dwill can carry the franchise. He can't even carry the nets out of lottery. Trading Rondo away for a max player that have double the amount of his contract and signing dwill for max will kill our cap flexibility.

To tell you, I think even Red wouldn't trade Rondo either if he is the only best player on the team. He traded an all-star in Ed Macauley for Bill Russell but that's because Bob Cousy is still on the team. He traded a valuable piece in Gerald Henderson for a top pick in Len Bias because Larry Bird is still in his prime. Unless this team have another young proven on the team, you don't  just trade star players for the sake of trading. Name me players we can get at the expense of Rondo.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #81 on: April 07, 2012, 05:30:52 AM »

Offline jdz101

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The "price" of landing a max talent:  First of all, I believe a "max contract" (not involving a sign-and-trade) would give him a starting salary of 17.4 mil (30% of a 58 mil cap for a 7-9 year vet).  In order to offer Deron that max deal, you'd first need to renounce the rights to Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Jeff Green, Brandon Bass, etc (Pietrus, Dooling, Wilcox, JO... ).   Once you RENOUNCE those rights, you are left with roughly 28 mil in cap space.  You'll need to use some of that money to sign our two 1st rounders... so lets call it 26 mil to be safe.  Presuming Deron takes the max offer (17.4 mil), you now only have 8.6 million left in cap space.  That may, in fact, price you out of bringing back Kevin Garnett (who most assume will get 10-12 mil next year), but you should have enough to bring back ONE of the following (Ray Allen, Jeff Green or Brandon Bass).   Additionally, presumably if you sign Deron Williams, the next move is to offer up Rondo on the open market to the highest bidder.  This is a tough one for a lot of Celtic fans to stomach, but it doesn't make much sense to have two dominant point guards.  I'm of the belief that the Celtics owners/management would prefer Deron over Rondo, but that's besides the point.  Once you sign Deron you can't trade him... so Rondo would have to be the guy you move.  Luckily Rondo (as a top 6 PG himself) should have significant value on the open market.  Something along the lines of a Josh Smith or a Al Jefferson isn't out of the question.  


What about the rookie and bird exceptions? (especially to sign KG)

Why would you trade away Kevin's good friend if you're planning to convince him to resign?

Just wow.


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Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #82 on: April 07, 2012, 07:02:15 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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You can't convince people that Dwill can carry the franchise. He can't even carry the nets out of lottery. Trading Rondo away for a max player that have double the amount of his contract and signing dwill for max will kill our cap flexibility.

To tell you, I think even Red wouldn't trade Rondo either if he is the only best player on the team. He traded an all-star in Ed Macauley for Bill Russell but that's because Bob Cousy is still on the team. He traded a valuable piece in Gerald Henderson for a top pick in Len Bias because Larry Bird is still in his prime. Unless this team have another young proven on the team, you don't  just trade star players for the sake of trading. Name me players we can get at the expense of Rondo.
How many times do I have to say this.  We wouldn't be trading Rondo for Deron in my hypothetical.  We'd be signing Deron and then presumably trading the lesser point guard (Rondo) for an allstar who plays a different position. 

Also I'm not sure why people in this thread keep bringing up Deron's season in Jersey like it somehow proves Rondo is better than him.  That's completely ridiculous.  Deron Williams took Utah to the Western Conference finals and three straight 50+ win years.  You're holding it against him that he isn't getting it done with Kris Humphries and Anthony MOrrow?  Lol. Come on guys let's try a bit harder. 

Man it sure would be fun to see how well Rondo would do with Kris Humphries and Anthony Morrow as his best players, though.  I imagine more points and a lot less assists... his lack of shooting ability would bury him.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2012, 07:08:24 AM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #83 on: April 07, 2012, 07:53:15 AM »

Offline greenhead85

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Shoot. Will really miss Rondo’s plays when this Deron acquisition materializes. Rondo runs a team’s offense better than most PGs. DWill can perform similarly plus he has a lot more to offer especially on the offensive end.

An unrestricted FA All-Star is a rare opportunity these days. I just wish we get a good shot – er, a slamdunk – on this one.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #84 on: April 07, 2012, 08:38:29 AM »

Offline BballTim

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  It's true that the Nets are about a point per 100 possessions better than the Celts. But with Williams and Rondo both out of the game the difference is 3 points. Rondo makes a bigger positive impact on the Celts than Williams does on the Nets. He also made a significantly larger impact on the Celts last year than Deron did on the Nets.

Again, it's a small sample size considering how long the two are on the floor. The stat you're citing is largely irrelevant.

  It's closing in on a thousand minutes this year. Throw in last year, it's well over that. It's not a small sample size, you're just trying to ignore it because you have no answer for it.

Quote
  Ok, just for kicks, let's bring up PER. Deron's PER is about 2 points higher than opposing PGs when he plays, Rondo's is about 6 points higher. So aside from the fact that Rondo seems to have more of a positive impact on his team than Williams and also outplays his counterpart by a significantly wider margin, your analysis is spot on.

This is...what?

So instead of doing a direct head to head comparison of PER, in which Deron steadily outperforms Rondo and has his whole career (which you, by the way, dismiss as a stat that favors scorers...interestingly enough, Deron has averaged more assists in his career than Rondo, but I'm sure you'll find someway to dismiss that)...

  Sure, Deron has better career numbers than Rondo, he was a top 5 pick in the draft and developed faster than Rondo. I'm not saying that he wasn't better than Rondo a few years ago.


You compare the PERs of each point guard to how their counterparts performed in games against them and then take the difference to measure impact of a game. This is a total stretch for a number of reasons...the first of which is that Rondo plays in a much better defensive system and that having one of the best defensive big men in the game behind you is a huge boon which allows him to gamble a lot more.

  Rondo's opposing efg%, assists allowed and turnovers forced were well better than what Williams does now when Rondo was a rookie and we didn't have KG and that system. Your answer was made up out of whole cloth.

But you disregard that almost every single individual stat, both in sabremetric and traditional numbers, favor Deron. Williams also happens to run a more efficient offense.

  Haha. Maybe if you  claim another 20 times that Deron runs a more efficient offense people will forget that it's more efficient than ours when Deron and Rondo are on the bench, not when they're in the game. Or that it's more efficient because of offensive rebounding. Keep trying...

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #85 on: April 07, 2012, 09:33:13 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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I'd rather have the cost efficient point guard who already knows the system than getting a slight upgrade at a max contract where I don't think the talent increase justifies the increased cap hit. 

Keep Rondo and give yourself more flexibility with finding complementary pieces.


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Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #86 on: April 07, 2012, 09:46:47 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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For those of you who don't understand "big picture", let me spell it out for you.  We aren't a contender this year.  Three of our 4 best players are 35+ years old.  Signing Deron Williams (young franchise player) and then moving Rondo to the highest bidder is actually probably our "best case" scenario here.

Keeping Rondo and overpaying a restricted free agent such as Ryan Anderson so that Orlando doesn't match is a better scenario than signing Deron Williams for the maximum and getting whatever you can get for Rondo (even if you could trade him straight up for Josh Smith).
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Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #87 on: April 07, 2012, 10:05:06 AM »

Offline bfrombleacher

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a hypothetical question: if we do end up getting Deron, how will the guard rotation going to be like?

Rondo/Bradley
Deron/Ray Allen (if he comes back for cheap again)

man that guard lineup would be NASTY

Amidst all this infighting among Celtic brethren some peace, TP for that.

And yes. That lineup would be nasty. Actually, is it that insane of an idea? It would be very much like the LA Clippers, except with a healthy Deron Williams and a healthier-than-Chris-Paul Rondo leading the way versus Billups.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #88 on: April 07, 2012, 10:07:25 AM »

Offline soap07

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 Haha. Maybe if you  claim another 20 times that Deron runs a more efficient offense people will forget that it's more efficient than ours when Deron and Rondo are on the bench, not when they're in the game. Or that it's more efficient because of offensive rebounding. Keep trying...

The Nets' offensive efficiency when Deron is on the court: 106.2
The Celtics offensive efficiency when Rondo is on the court: 105.0

I'm sure once again you'll find a way to explain to me that Rondo actually, in spite of overwhelming evidence, runs a more efficient offense.

No, but seriously, we can keep pretending like the on/off court comparison matters too if you'd like.

Re: Should the Celtics offer Deron Williams the max this summer?
« Reply #89 on: April 07, 2012, 10:18:12 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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my god... the way some of you talk about Rondo, you'd think he was better than Magic Johnson or something.  Good lord.

He's a top 6 point guard.  I love him.  He's fantastic.  Celtics love him.  He's not going anywhere.  

Rose, Deron and Chris Paul are better.  If I could add one of those guys to my team, I'd do it.  The Nets gave up a boatload of assets just to rent Deron for a couple seasons and you're telling me you wouldn't be interested in adding him for free?  

I appreciate the loyalty to the Green, but all my tommy points are going to soap07 for talkin sense.

First of all, starting with the hyperbole that anyone is saying that Rondo is better than Magic Johnson is an underhanded way to begin an argument.  Nobody is saying that.  I will treat your arguments with enough respect to realize that you are not saying that Deron Williams is better than Magic Johnson. 

All some of are saying is that the difference in talent level and team impact between Rajon Rondo and Deron Williams is not as large as you may believe, if it exists as all. 

That's a debatable point.  If you disagree, feel free to debate it.  Your condescending attitude and your apparent belief that anyone who disagrees with you is completely ignorant about what constitutes basketball talent shows an incredible arrogance.

You haven't really given any compelling arguments to back up your thesis.  Soap07 is doing a much better job of trying to back up his arguments.  Yours seems to consist primarily of; "everybody knows it, and I say it, therefore it's true, and if you don't see it, you are a fool."

Keep arguing your point.  I have no problem with that, but please stop with the dismissive attitude towards anyone who disagrees with you.  It's become a pattern with you, and I challenge you to be able to post your ideas here in a civil and respectful matter. 
« Last Edit: April 07, 2012, 10:32:57 AM by Celtics18 »
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