Danny's Plan (idea)

[MosheP]

Its a radical change in performance, not in philosophy.

I think it would be a radical change in philosophy if he went out and spent the cap space by overpaying mediocre players on longterm deals.  And that is likely the other option to rolling it back for another year.

What? Are you really saying the only other option to be a fringe playoff team is to overpay mediocre players?

That's just a pathetic strawman. It doesn't make sense to keep this core if the team isn't a contender any more and the alternative is not to overpay mediocre players.

In fact, I'll predict that a) Ainge will share my opinion and won't bring back this core, opting instead for filling the roster with cheap young players that can be developed and have their value increased and collect assets via draft lottery; b) the same people disagreeing with me now, will agree once they see Ainge agrees to.

[MBunge]

There's no point in repeating this year next season. What would be the goal? Try to win 45-50 games? 

This is one of the worst fan attitudes of modern times.  Either win the championship or suck!

Mike

Fans? Modern times? Front offices have had that philosophy for decades.

Ainge himself decided he wanted the team to suck instead of being a solid playoff team just a few years ago.

It's on thing to take that attitude after a team has tread water for 4 or 5 years.  It's another to have that attitude toward every season.

Mike

[eugen]

Dannys plan in few minths would be to sign Big3 new contract in less than 5-6 millions/ season. Next step is to create step by step new BIG3( for me: Aldrige/ Scola/ Deron Williams)

[MosheP]

If that's Ainge's plan, then he should join the Bucks. Senator Kohl has been forcing every GM to follow that philosophy since he bought the team and hired Del Harris as his GM. The results are well known.

Ainge blown up Jim O'Brien's team because it was an ageing non-contending playoff team - a team that wouldn't win a championship or get high draft picks.

Why would his philosophy change?

There's no point in repeating this year next season. What would be the goal? Try to win 45-50 games?  

Kohl's operating budget is Wyc's pocket change. Celtics just signed a lucrative long-term television deal as well.

There's no reason to believe that the team will suddenly operate like some cash-strapped bottom-tier franchise. Wyc has shown he'll spend to compete for a title, and I have no reason to believe he'll stop doing so.

Edit: To Chris' point, it's also about spending/cashing in at the right time.

I have no idea why is the money issue relevant.

The point is that you either believe this core is championship material and you go all in or you don't believe this core is championship material anymore and in that case you blow it up and try to acquire talent via the draft lottery instead of fighting for the 5th seed another year.

You were the one who brought up the Bucks, whose spending has been curtailed by Kohl up until recent memory. I thought that's what you were referencing. If not, what exactly were you talking about?

I believe the core is championship material. It seems Ainge does too.

By the way, could someone post the Big Four's averages for the last few years? I suspect that, despite the brutal condensed schedule (which will lighten up next year), none of the four have experienced a significant decline in terms of efficiency/productivity.

When has Kohl refused to spend money to field a competitive team?

The problem with the Bucks is that they constantly try to build the best roster they can because Kohl doesn't believe in getting worse now to get better in the future.

If Ainge believes this core is championship material, then it's hard to explain why are the backup bigs Greg Stiemsma and JJJ or why he's been shopping Pierce/Ray for younger players/picks. Strange way of acting on his beliefs.  

[djbilly33]

Ride this season out adding a big somewhere. Offseason, resign kg and ray to a 1 yr deal and have them be part of the 2nd unit with pietrus, bass and avery.  Sign 2 free agents with the left over salary room.  Rondo, Signing, Pierce, Signing, Signing.  The signings could be free agents or impact draft player.  Thoughts?

[MosheP]

There's no point in repeating this year next season. What would be the goal? Try to win 45-50 games? 

This is one of the worst fan attitudes of modern times.  Either win the championship or suck!

Mike

Fans? Modern times? Front offices have had that philosophy for decades.

Ainge himself decided he wanted the team to suck instead of being a solid playoff team just a few years ago.

It's on thing to take that attitude after a team has tread water for 4 or 5 years.  It's another to have that attitude toward every season.

Mike

What's so great about being mediocre for 5 years? The attitude is always the same: position the team to win a title.

What's the point of wasting Rondo's prime in a mediocre fringe playoff team? So that you can say "okay, we've been treading water for 5 years, now we can start being really bad to acquire some high-level talent"?

The sooner you start the process, the sooner you get rid of it.

That's why I'm fairly confident that one year from now the Celtics will actually suck and have a terrible team.

[Lucky17]

By the way, could someone post the Big Four's averages for the last few years? I suspect that, despite the brutal condensed schedule (which will lighten up next year), none of the four have experienced a significant decline in terms of efficiency/productivity.

I just briefly looked at the stats for the past three years for Rondo, Allen, KG, and Pierce.

From what I see, none of the four have experienced any notable decline in production. Pierce's shooting percentage is down several points this year, but his assists are up. Ray is having a career year from 3-point range. KG is still putting up the same numbers. Rondo is too.

If the rationale for blowing things up is that the Big Four are on a decline, it's a false one.

The core is still worth retaining. Find a legitimate starting big and scoring punch off the bench, and the team makes another run next year. In the meantime, continue to stockpile assets (future cap flexibility, draft picks, developing young players) for the day when the right opportunity to cash them in presents itself.

[CFAN38]

Ride this season out adding a big somewhere. Offseason, resign kg and ray to a 1 yr deal and have them be part of the 2nd unit with pietrus, bass and avery.  Sign 2 free agents with the left over salary room.  Rondo, Signing, Pierce, Signing, Signing.  The signings could be free agents or impact draft player.  Thoughts?

The problem with this is after signing KG, Ray, Pietrus and Bass how much money is going to be left over to sign 3 starters? It has already been reported that with existing contracts, caphold, etc the Cs will have 25million in free cap. If KG and ray sign for 5mill (less then i think they will sign for) Bass signs for 6 mill and pietrus for 2,5 that leaves us with 6.5 mill left to sign 3 players. The numbers just don't work.

If Ainge believes this core is championship material, then it's hard to explain why are the backup bigs Greg Stiemsma and JJJ or why he's been shopping Pierce/Ray for younger players/picks. Strange way of acting on his beliefs. 

The backups where first suppose to be J Green,West and Bass. Then it became Wilcox, Bass and Pietrus. Now its Pietrus, Steimsma and JJJ. Things did not go the way danny planned.

The core is still worth retaining. Find a legitimate starting big and scoring punch off the bench, and the team makes another run next year. In the meantime, continue to stockpile assets (future cap flexibility, draft picks, developing young players) for the day when the right opportunity to cash them in presents itself.

I agree, I hope J Green is that scoring punch and that aging veteran bigs like Camby, Kurt Thomas etc can fill the post for next year along with JJJ and potential rookies.

[pearljammer10]

You think we are a terrible rebounding team now, I cant wait to see how bad we are with KG at center and Green at power forward. We would get absolutely destroyed on the boards.

[ChiefDK]

My guess is that the plan for next season is to basically repeat this year. I foresee the Cs resigning everyone who is willing to sign 1 year deals. (Bass, Pietrus may want long) I hope J Green is willing to sign 1 year to prove he is healthy. While sticking with the 1 year plan I would expect that we watch ever decent young to middle aged center sign to other teams for more $$ then they are worth. Then Danny will fill the rest of the team with the left over vets/guys who wanted long team deals and no one would commit (ex K Humphires last off season) and 3 rookies.

2012
Center: KG,Wilcox,Steimsma,
PF      J Green, JJJ, Rookie
SF      Pierce,Rookie
SG      Ray, Avery
PG      Rondo,Rookie

I would hope to see Avery push ahead of Ray to be the starting SG, JJJ prove to be a capable 8th man, and one of our rookies show the potential to be at least a solid starter in the next 3 years.

Then Danny will plan on being an aggressive player in 2013 free agency. This may very well include move Pierce at next years trade deadline.

2013 Free Agents (better list of unrestricted then 2012)

http://www.hoopsworld.com/2013-nba-free-agents

I'm in the minority but I agree with this plan. There are no impact players in the 2012 or 2013 free agent class (not counting Deron, Dwight) that will turn them into title contenders again. Either Ainge needs to tear it down completely and build through the lottery, or buy his time with short contracts and hope to recruit a couple top free agents in the next couple of years.

A lot of people forget that these teams are businesses..owners want to stay out of the lottery at all costs as fans are quick to lose interest and have little patience with 5 year rebuilding plans, which lead to severely decreased revenue.

That's reality.

[djbilly33]

So pretty much we will never be able to get another Big 3 because itll cost us too much?  Now we as Celtics fans have to watch the Heat have their big 3 and all the players who want to join them just so they can win a ring and take a cut it pay to do so.

[Mr October]

So pretty much we will never be able to get another Big 3 because itll cost us too much?  Now we as Celtics fans have to watch the Heat have their big 3 and all the players who want to join them just so they can win a ring and take a cut it pay to do so.

These next 2-3 years are going to be brutal for a Celtic fan that hates teams like the Heat. But, as the new luxury tax rules kick in, teams with 3 max players are going to run into trouble and have to shed salaries big time. Heck the Lakers already started by shedding Odom last fall.

There is a very informative podcast on Grantland between Bill Simmons and Mark Cuban on this topic. NBA economics are probably going to change the league salary structures in such a way that the winning approach might be 1-2 superstars per contender surrounded by a collection of great role players. Examples: Dirk's Mavs, Hakeem's Rockets, Billups/Wallace's Pistons, etc.

[wdleehi]

I think the plan is to start amassing assets.  Low price ones on longer deals.  Big price ones on shorter deals. 


I think Ray and KG could both resign one year deals at less money if the Celtics used the difference to add a player that helps them next year. 


I also could see both of them are gone if the Celtics finds a trade for a player that eats up some of that cap space. 

[CFAN38]

There is a very informative podcast on Grantland between Bill Simmons and Mark Cuban on this topic. NBA economics are probably going to change the league salary structures in such a way that the winning approach might be 1-2 superstars per contender surrounded by a collection of great role players. Examples: Dirk's Mavs, Hakeem's Rockets, Billups/Wallace's Pistons, etc.

I have posted before http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=53436.0 how as a basketball fan (not just an NBA fan) I loved the Billups lead Pistons team. Give me 5 guys who have a shot at being all stars over 2 super stars any day. With this plan the trick for Danny will be getting 4 guys who fit around Rondo's unique game, are around his age, and have the potential to be a high end starter/allstar.

[snively]

By the way, could someone post the Big Four's averages for the last few years? I suspect that, despite the brutal condensed schedule (which will lighten up next year), none of the four have experienced a significant decline in terms of efficiency/productivity.

I just briefly looked at the stats for the past three years for Rondo, Allen, KG, and Pierce.

From what I see, none of the four have experienced any notable decline in production. Pierce's shooting percentage is down several points this year, but his assists are up. Ray is having a career year from 3-point range. KG is still putting up the same numbers. Rondo is too.

If the rationale for blowing things up is that the Big Four are on a decline, it's a false one.

The core is still worth retaining. Find a legitimate starting big and scoring punch off the bench, and the team makes another run next year. In the meantime, continue to stockpile assets (future cap flexibility, draft picks, developing young players) for the day when the right opportunity to cash them in presents itself.

I'm vacillating on what the best course of action is right now, but just for fun I'll try to counter this point of view.

The problem is that unless KG & Ray sign for ridiculous bargains (something along the lines of the combined $6.5 Malone and Payton signed with the Lakers for) the Big 4 are going to consume most of the salary cap; and the Big 4 + affordable journeymen can no longer qualify as an elite squad, as our shambling exit from last year's playoffs and middling performance this year has shown.

We need a 5th impact player (a David West level player) and a strong bench (Bradley/Green/Bass/and a competent big man would qualify) to make the big 4 elite again.  Again, unless we get a ridiculous bargain on Ray/KG, we're not going to have the money to get both.