Be logical... what are your odds?

[EDWARDO]

Here's the math for everyone. Its really quite simple:

Current odds of winning the title, about 1%

Odds with Kaman, about 3%.... you willing to give up #1 pick for an extra 2% chance? not me
Odds with Hickson, about 2%.... worth a 2nd rounder probably since he's young as well


What else was out there to do exactly? Our chances weren't going from 10% to 30% with any of the available options.

The one guy who I thought would have gotten us to 10% or higher IF HEALTHY was Okafor, but there's too little info out about his knee injury.

Its very evident that there are people out there that think we would have a high (say 20% or more) chance of winning the title if we'd just pulled off one trade. I would say you are kidding yourselves and that's a message you can hear from any serious basketball writer or commentator. I've never heard one guy say that Boston is one small piece away from contending. NONE.

I'm interested in what other people think the odds are now, and give me a trade you would have made and what our odds would have been completing that trade? This should be interesting...

[MosheP]

If those are the odds, then you trade Ray Allen, Pierce and guys like Bass or Pietrus for whatever you can get. 2nd rounders. Young players in rookie contracts. Take some salary for the next season and get some picks for it.

I have a hard time believing nobody offered a 1st round pick for Pierce or Allen, considering they were offered for Jordan Hill, Camby or G. Wallace, but you get what you can.

This was completely indefensible by Ainge. Either this team could compete for a title this year or not. If Ainge's assessment was negative, then he had to get something for the current assets. Heck, a late 2nd rounder can become the next Manu Ginobili.

[Cap!]

If those are the odds, then you trade Ray Allen, Pierce and guys like Bass or Pietrus for whatever you can get. 2nd rounders. Young players in rookie contracts. Take some salary for the next season and get some picks for it.

I have a hard time believing nobody offered a 1st round pick for Pierce or Allen, considering they were offered for Jordan Hill, Camby or G. Wallace, but you get what you can.

This was completely indefensible by Ainge. Either this team could compete for a title this year or not. If Ainge's assessment was negative, then he had to get something for the current assets. Heck, a late 2nd rounder can become the next Manu Ginobili.

Those odds are way too low.

[Celtics18]

Here's the math for everyone. Its really quite simple:

Current odds of winning the title, about 1%

Odds with Kaman, about 3%.... you willing to give up #1 pick for an extra 2% chance? not me
Odds with Hickson, about 2%.... worth a 2nd rounder probably since he's young as well


What else was out there to do exactly? Our chances weren't going from 10% to 30% with any of the available options.

The one guy who I thought would have gotten us to 10% or higher IF HEALTHY was Okafor, but there's too little info out about his knee injury.

Its very evident that there are people out there that think we would have a high (say 20% or more) chance of winning the title if we'd just pulled off one trade. I would say you are kidding yourselves and that's a message you can hear from any serious basketball writer or commentator. I've never heard one guy say that Boston is one small piece away from contending. NONE.

I'm interested in what other people think the odds are now, and give me a trade you would have made and what our odds would have been completing that trade? This should be interesting...

What mathematical formula did you use to "logically" get the odds that you quote in your post?

[MosheP]

If those are the odds, then you trade Ray Allen, Pierce and guys like Bass or Pietrus for whatever you can get. 2nd rounders. Young players in rookie contracts. Take some salary for the next season and get some picks for it.

I have a hard time believing nobody offered a 1st round pick for Pierce or Allen, considering they were offered for Jordan Hill, Camby or G. Wallace, but you get what you can.

This was completely indefensible by Ainge. Either this team could compete for a title this year or not. If Ainge's assessment was negative, then he had to get something for the current assets. Heck, a late 2nd rounder can become the next Manu Ginobili.

Those odds are way too low.

What odds are low?

If the odds of winning are too low to justify giving up a 2nd rounder for Kurt Thomas or Aaron Gray, then the odds are low enough to justify trading Brandon Bass for a couple of seconds - I bet the Lakers, San Antonio or Miami would take him.

[EDWARDO]

I think my odds are spot on and that a lot of folks on this site see this team through green colored glasses.

What would your odds be?

In terms of the comments regarding if the odds are so low, why not trade everyone, I would say that there are many many people on this thread who have been saying "blow it up!" for a long time who obviously agree the odds are very low.

Again,  what are YOUR odds???

[EDWARDO]

Dp

[hpantazo]

odds with the roster we have now: 25%

odds if we land Kaman via a buyout? 33%

I'll take those odds

[EDWARDO]

odds with the roster we have now: 25%

odds if we land Kaman via a buyout? 33%

I'll take those odds

Wow. That'd make them the 3rd highest odds I would guess?  Miami and Chicago are definitely higher than us. No one from the awest?

[EDWARDO]

odds with the roster we have now: 25%

odds if we land Kaman via a buyout? 33%

I'll take those odds

Wow. That'd make them the 3rd highest odds I would guess?  Miami and Chicago are definitely higher than us. No one from the awest?

Odds in Vegas are 40:1.   2.5% and they happy to sell there.  Would buy much lower so the true odds in market are MAX 2%

[Celtics18]

I think my odds are spot on and that a lot of folks on this site see this team through green colored glasses.

What would your odds be?

In terms of the comments regarding if the odds are so low, why not trade everyone, I would say that there are many many people on this thread who have been saying "blow it up!" for a long time who obviously agree the odds are very low.

Again,  what are YOUR odds???

I don't know what the formula is for creating odds for a team's chances at winning an NBA title.  If I were to give my personal opinion (which is what you did--putting a percent symbol behind something doesn't make it scientific or mathematically based), I would guess that the odds are somewhere around 10% or lower.

Of course, if we have an incredibly magical run this post-season, that number could rise dramatically.

[EDWARDO]

All this underscores my point. People on the blog think our odds are MUCH higher than the really are

2% max.  Danny knows this and thus no trades to get us to 4%

Very very simple

[Celtics18]

All this underscores my point. People on the blog think our odds are MUCH higher than the really are

2% max.  Danny knows this and thus no trades to get us to 4%

Very very simple

 "2% max" is purely speculation on your part.  The truth is that even the guys in Vegas have no sure-fire formula for predicting the odds on this stuff. 

You come across as having some kind of definitive truth about this team's chances because you put a "%" behind your numbers, but, in reality, your number is as meaningless as anyone else's.

[Fan from VT]

As currently constructed, the C's would be one of the worst of 16 playoff teams. if all teams in the playoffs had an equal shot of winning the title, then each team in the playoffs would have a 6.25% chance of winning the title. So keep that in mind as a baseline. As it stnads right now, the C's are looking to be a 7 seed, so on the road in the first round. Drop them a little bit. They'll be playing a team that is better than them, so drop a little more. If they manage to win, they'd be on the road in round 2, so drop a couple more points; still playing a better team, so a couple more points, etc. Now, we've been hurt by injuries this year, but unfortunately the major injuries have been at the same position (center) and are likely season ending (definitely for wilcox, seems unlikely for JO). So that should hurt in the playoffs.

Of course if we get a couple spots higher, we'd increase our odds, but still would likely have to go through BOTH Chicago and Miami on the road.

And, a favorable buyout, if he came here, could push us up some more.

So for a 7 seeded team with serious injuries and lack of quality at center, meaning all playoff games on the road against better teams, I'd say our odds would be about 2%. Adding a truly legit center might up our odds to 4%, and if we could add them early enough to get up to the 4th seed, maybe 8% just because we'd get a home series and decrease the chances of seeing one of miami/chicago.


I think it's easy to throw out odds, but remember that 16 teams make the playoffs, and all of their odds have to add up to 100. So if you say the C's have a 25% chance as a 7 seed, then there's only 75% to divvy up between all 15 other teams! I think Chicago and Miami are clearly better than the C's, so they get at least 25% each, meaning that there's only a 25% chance that any western team at all wins the title, even though by themselves I think OKC has better odds than the Cs.

So yeah, begas currently has 1:40 odds, or 2.5%. And when it gets down there, I think vegas OVER estimates the odds because if a 1:100 ever comes through they get really screwed, and they know fans of teams that have "real" odds of 1:100 will still buy in at 1:40 odds.

[EDWARDO]

Can't believe you guys aren't believing what the world is telling you. 2% max because 40:1 Is the offer side and bid is at least 1% below that. The mid is 2%. Vegas doesn't dream up the odds randomly. It is based on how much people are willing to pay. Crowds are smarter than individuals and certainly smarter than die hard Cs fans with crazy massive bias. Upsets do happen of course and the Celts could win it all.  There's a 1% chance after all !!