Why Dwight Howard isn't walking through that door

[LarBrd33]

I'm going to keep this short for those who are still clinging to the Dwight pipe dream.

It's not happening.  Here's why.

In the offseason if we RENOUNCE THE BIRD RIGHTS to Kevin Garnet, Ray Allen, Brandon Bass and Jeff Green ... along with every scrub role player on this team (Pietrus, Daniels, Stesma, Pavlovic, Dooling, Wilcox, JO, Moore) ... we will be left with roughly $25 million in cap space.

Rondo, Pierce, Johnson and Bradley will be the only players under contract.

Dwight Howard is going to command nothing less than 4 years 81 million with a starting salary of 19 million dollars:  http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_magic/2012/03/dwight-wouldn%E2%80%99t-give-up-30-million-if-he-signs-with-new-team-in-july.html

You then have exactly 6 million dollars (and no MLE) to fill out he rest of the roster.  Not enough money to bring back the rest of the team.  We'd have to fill it with min level scrubs.

You're telling me that Dwight is going to want to leave Orlando to come play with Rondo, 35 year old PIerce... and whatever talent we can get with 6 million dollars?  Not happening. He's leaving Orlando due to lack of talent surrounding him.  That hypothetical is not a better situation.  The only long-term draw for him would be Rondo.

Compare that situation with Brooklyn.  They have Deron Williams (better than Rondo), Brook Lopez (23 year old big man they can either keep or EASILY trade), Marshon Brooks (23... showing real talent) and role players like Morrow, and Farmar under contract... on pace to add a top 5 pick in a loaded draft (currently sitting with the 4th best odds of winning the ANthony Davis lotto) AND the Knicks pick (#15 currently).  If Dwight reaches free agency, he can flat out sign with them and they will lose NONE of those assets.  He'd be the face of Brooklyn... a team in a huge market with tons of hype.  It's a no-brainer.  It WILL happen.  Dwight WANTS it to happen.  You're a complete idiot if you think Dwight would pass that up to play with Rondo and 35 year old Pierce. 

Now... the fact is, Orlando has to be smart enough to realize this.  THey have to realize they are going to lose their star player for NOTHING.  They can't possibly be that naive to believe he's going to stick around in Orlando.  And for that reason... they would be completely nuts not to trade him before the deadline in 5 days.  Especially when teams are dangling assets like Andrew Bynum and Brook Lopez in their face.  So all of this is likely a moot point... Dwight will be off the market within a week.  Orlando has no leverage.  They might scoff at getting Bynum right now, but as that deadline approaches on Thursday, you better believe they will fold.

Unless your master plan revolves around dumping Pierce (either via amnesty in the offseason or trading him for assets in the next 5 days), I think it's time to start thinking about Plan B. 

What's Plan B?

[jdz101]

Theres no real point in speculating on this any more. No one really knows where hes going. Like the OP, I doubt its Boston, but so many different things could happen to change his location.

[LarBrd33]

BTW... for those reading the tea leaves...

This is why the Lakers are going to trade Pau Gasol and why the Rondo/Gasol thing makes perfect sense for the Lakers.

Bynum is a better asset than Brook.  The Lakers are on Dwight's wish list.  Smart money is on the Lakers nabbing Dwight at the deadline.  

But then... why would Dwight want to play with 31 year old Pau Gasol and an aging Kobe.  It's an easy sell as-is (who wouldn't want to play in LA), but they will need to nab a piece or two to fit around Dwight long-term.  A PG like Rondo would make sense.  The rumored deal (which makes me sick, btw) of Pau for Steph Curry and David Lee makes way too much sense.  All of this is very depressing, really.

[LarBrd33]

Theres no real point in speculating on this any more. No one really knows where hes going. Like the OP, I doubt its Boston, but so many different things could happen to change his location.

It's a game of chicken, man.

The Nets know they have the upper hand, because if Orlando keeps Dwight... forget it.  He's going to the Brooklyn in the offseason.  Dwight would be crazy not to.  A top 5 pick, the #15 pick, the 2nd best PG in the league and several young assets to fit around him like Brook Lopez and Marshon.  Huge market.  Tons of Brooklyn hype.  Done deal.  Lock it in.  You can bet your house on it.

However, the Lakers have a shot, because Bynum is a better asset than Brook Lopez.  Right now Orlando (who has no leverage) is trying to talk a tough game, acting like they'd want both Pau and Bynum, floating rumors that they'd trade him for a package of players from a team like Golden State, etc... and they are probably scrambling to in a fit of desperation to find a player (like Monta Ellis) they can bring in that can convince Dwight to stay (of course Golden State would never do this, because they have convinced themselves they have a long-shot chance of landing Dwight themselves... probably correctly realizing that they technically can out-do any trade package the Lakers and Nets, but also realizing that if they give up their best assets for Dwight (Steph Curry, for example), there is no chance they will be able to resign him)

But ultimately the only two teams with an actual shot of getting him are the Nets and Lakers.  Orlando desperately wants those two teams to enter a bidding war.  Lakers are unlikely to trade both Pau and Bynum, because then there is still the chance that Dwight refuses to sign an extension.  By keeping Pau, they can bring in young assets to surround Dwight with and convince him to sign an extension.   They don't go beyond offering Bynum.   The Nets know this... which is why they probably dont' go beyond offering a small package around Brook Lopez and maybe a protected 1st rounder.  Better than nothing if you're Orlando.

The rest of those teams are unlikely to offer much for Dwight, because they don't have much of a shot of re-signing him. 

When those three teams finally end their game of chicken on the 15th, dominos will fall.  If Dwight goes to the Lakers for Bynum, the Nets will have to scramble to trade Deron, because they will be unlikely to re-sign Deron.  SO, I imagine the Nets have a lot of "contingent" trades set up for Deron that they can send into the league offices in the event that Dwight gets traded elsewhere.  Which means a team like Boston probably can't trade Rondo until they see whether or not they have a shot at Deron...

All of it is nuts.  It goes on and on, really... (like where does ROndo for Steph Curry sit on the "contingent" hierarchy?... if Dwight gets traded to the Lakers perhaps the Celtics make a play for Deron... if Dwight gets traded to the Nets, perhaps the Warriors go after Rondo... there's all these what-ifs that are being held up by Dwight).  Anyhow... that's how I see it.

[tyrone biggums]

You're right, hopefully the Celtics use that cap space to take back garbage contracts to get high draft picks....that seems to be the other side of the fence here.

The Nets are the top speculated destination, but you cannot rule out the Lakers, Celtics, Mavericks, Bulls, or the Euro League (I'm kidding about Europe). Lots of things can change between now and free agency, hence its pointless to throw out this thread right now.