Ray Allen to Chicago Idea Revisited

[snively]

After hearing a few knowledgeable Bulls fans repeat that the Bulls owner is extremely reluctant to pay the luxury tax, I'm becoming more optimistic that they'd be willing to include Omer Asik in a Ray deal.

Right now the Bulls have $64 mil committed in salary next year, with up to $12 mil added if they elect to keep Korver, Brewer and Watson. With Asik a near certainty to receive an offer starting somewhere just above $5 mil and the tax threshold set @ $74 mil, they'll need to replace at least 2 of Korver, Brewer and Watson with minimum salary guys to retain Asik without paying the tax.

To put that into perspective, Asik is averaging 15mpg for them, while each of the others are averaging 20+mpg.

With that in mind, something like Ray/Stiemsma/Dooling/Moore for Rip/Korver/Watson/Asik starts to make some sense.

Chicago gets to consolidate it's $10 mil overinvestment in Rip/Korver (who have combined to provide the equivalent of a starting 2-guard's minutes) into the much more reliable/potent Ray, in exchange for downgrades at their least utilized positions: the back-up guard and the back-up 5. 

Further, they face the scenario of likely being able to retain Ray and Moore (let's say they can get Ray for what Grant Hill got from Phoenix, 1 yr $6.5 mil + Moore for $.8 mil) for significantly less than what Rip + Korver + Watson would cost (a combined $13.2 mil), thus pushing them far enough under the luxury tax threshold to spend the MMLE on another acquisition (probably a 4th big).

As for the Celtics, they'd receive an excellent JO replacement in Asik (one of the best per-minute rebounders in the league and very nice defensive player to boot), a big Dooling upgrade in CJ Watson (better shooter, better scorer, better passer) and a pair of Ray knock-offs to keep our perimeter offensive options open.  Adding Rip's guaranteed money next year is a bummer, but not a bad value if Rip can regain his health.

The C's would then roll into the post-season with the following rotation:
Rondo/(Korver or Rip)/Pierce/Bass/KG with Bradley/Watson/Pietrus/Asik off the bench

That preserves the diversity of offensive options that Doc loves in the starting unit, only this time with a much stronger 2-way bench, that is less likely to give up leads/momentum through offensive ineptitude (Watson providing much more than Dooling, and perhaps replacing Bradley's spot when we need scoring punch in the playoffs) or defensive lapses (huge defensive upgrade from Wilcox to Asik).  The deep bench would also be much improved, with Wilcox replacing Stiemsma as the 4th big and Korver (if Rip's healthy) replacing Sasha as the 5th wing.

What do you think?

[Donoghus]

I mentioned this in another thread last month, I just don't see Chicago moving Asik (and pieces) for a package of Ray & parts.  They're going to want that size in the playoffs and I think that the package mentioned is actually a slight downgrade for the Bulls in regards to team depth.  I think it'd leave their frontcourt thin and I don't think the Ray addition is a huge upgrade on the current SG situation there to come at the expense of frontcourt depth.

Wouldnt be shocked if Korver & Brewer walk after this season for the Bulls too.

[CFAN38]

I love the idea of getting Asik, not sure about this trade but really think Asik is a nice piece for the future. We are more likely to get him via FA.

[snively]

I mentioned this in another thread last month, I just don't see Chicago moving Asik (and pieces) for a package of Ray & parts.  They're going to want that size in the playoffs and I think that the package mentioned is actually a slight downgrade for the Bulls in regards to team depth.  I think it'd leave their frontcourt thin and I don't think the Ray addition is a huge upgrade on the current SG situation there to come act the expense of frontcourt depth.

Wouldnt be shocked if Korver & Brewer walk after this season for the Bulls too.

When the playoffs come around, I think it's a fair assumption that Asik's mpg will drop even further than the 15 he's averaging right now (as Noah absorbs more of a minutes burden).  Somewhere around the 10 he averaged last playoffs.

And Ray is a huge upgrade if Rip's 2nd half is as injury riddled as his first half (he's currently out with a shoulder issue).

That combined with the luxury tax concerns make me think it's a feasible scenario.

Anyways, what would you think of the proposed trade from the Celtics point of view?

[Donoghus]

I mentioned this in another thread last month, I just don't see Chicago moving Asik (and pieces) for a package of Ray & parts.  They're going to want that size in the playoffs and I think that the package mentioned is actually a slight downgrade for the Bulls in regards to team depth.  I think it'd leave their frontcourt thin and I don't think the Ray addition is a huge upgrade on the current SG situation there to come act the expense of frontcourt depth.

Wouldnt be shocked if Korver & Brewer walk after this season for the Bulls too.

When the playoffs come around, I think it's a fair assumption that Asik's mpg will drop even further than the 15 he's averaging right now (as Noah absorbs more of a minutes burden).  Somewhere around the 10 he averaged last playoffs.

And Ray is a huge upgrade if Rip's 2nd half is as injury riddled as his first half (he's currently out with a shoulder issue).

That combined with the luxury tax concerns make me think it's a feasible scenario.

Anyways, what would you think of the proposed trade from the Celtics point of view?

They've been able to stay afloat quite well given their situation at the SG position up to this point in the season. (32-8). I have to think they're not entirely comforable with it but are willing to ride it out if need be.  I just don't think they'd give up Asik for that package centered around Ray that you mentioned.  They're pretty high on Asik to begin with.  The real question to ask is, whether or not, Ray is the guy to put them over the top against Miami?

For the Celtics end?  Asik would be a nice addition, especially if you can lock him up past this season at reasonable cost.  The other guys don't do much for me. 

 

[Senninsage]

What Ray did in the last game, and what he did in last year's playoffs, are [dang] good reasons not to trade this guy. Period.

[the_Bird]

I'm not sure Danny would be looking to commit too much money to Asik, who I suspect will get a Gortat-like offer this summer.  He's shown enough in the minutes he's played that he'll get a fair amount of attention.  He's a good player, and teams know that.

Kind of reminds me of the Perk situation, though.  For all of Perk's good attributes, he's not a player that you build around.  You get cap space to sign/trade for star players, then fill around them with great role players (like Perk and Asik) as you can.  Danny knew that Perk wanted to stay; I don't think Danny ever had any intention of re-signing him, because of the impact it would have on rebuilding the team this summer.  

Asik strikes me as the same deal - a very good role player, not someone to build around.

If Asik gets a Gortat-like contract, and you've taken on Rip Hamilton for next year, you've already burned through a good chunk of the summer's cap space without adding a difference-maker.  

EDIT: I should say, if Ray does get traded, I would love to see him on Chicago - he'd be an excellent fit, and if the C's aren't going to win the title I'd at least love to see Chicago knock out Miami (and I'd like Ray to have a shot at another ring, he deserves it).  Just not sure how a trade would fit, dollars-wise.  All of their bigger contracts (to make the $$s work) seem to have another year to go, and I'm not smart enough to figure out how a three-way trade might look.  Taj Gibson is still the guy that I would *love* to get back, but I highly doubt he'd be available.

[snively]

I mentioned this in another thread last month, I just don't see Chicago moving Asik (and pieces) for a package of Ray & parts.  They're going to want that size in the playoffs and I think that the package mentioned is actually a slight downgrade for the Bulls in regards to team depth.  I think it'd leave their frontcourt thin and I don't think the Ray addition is a huge upgrade on the current SG situation there to come act the expense of frontcourt depth.

Wouldnt be shocked if Korver & Brewer walk after this season for the Bulls too.

When the playoffs come around, I think it's a fair assumption that Asik's mpg will drop even further than the 15 he's averaging right now (as Noah absorbs more of a minutes burden).  Somewhere around the 10 he averaged last playoffs.

And Ray is a huge upgrade if Rip's 2nd half is as injury riddled as his first half (he's currently out with a shoulder issue).

That combined with the luxury tax concerns make me think it's a feasible scenario.

Anyways, what would you think of the proposed trade from the Celtics point of view?

They've been able to stay afloat quite well given their situation at the SG position up to this point in the season. (32-8). I have to think they're not entirely comforable with it but are willing to ride it out if need be.  I just don't think they'd give up Asik for that package centered around Ray that you mentioned.  They're pretty high on Asik to begin with.  The real question to ask is, whether or not, Ray is the guy to put them over the top against Miami?

For the Celtics end?  Asik would be a nice addition, especially if you can lock him up past this season at reasonable cost.  The other guys don't do much for me. 

 

They got along pretty swimmingly with Bogans as their starting 2 last year but they still went out and shelled out 2 guaranteed years for Rip to upgrade their starting 2 spot. 

That makes me think they believe greater offensive production from the 2-spot was what they identified as the key to beating Miami.

[snively]

I'm not sure Danny would be looking to commit too much money to Asik, who I suspect will get a Gortat-like offer this summer.  He's shown enough in the minutes he's played that he'll get a fair amount of attention.  He's a good player, and teams know that.

Kind of reminds me of the Perk situation, though.  For all of Perk's good attributes, he's not a player that you build around.  You get cap space to sign/trade for star players, then fill around them with great role players (like Perk and Asik) as you can.  Danny knew that Perk wanted to stay; I don't think Danny ever had any intention of re-signing him, because of the impact it would have on rebuilding the team this summer. 

Asik strikes me as the same deal - a very good role player, not someone to build around.

If Asik gets a Gortat-like contract, and you've taken on Rip Hamilton for next year, you've already burned through a good chunk of the summer's cap space without adding a difference-maker. 

EDIT: I should say, if Ray does get traded, I would love to see him on Chicago - he'd be an excellent fit, and if the C's aren't going to win the title I'd at least love to see Chicago knock out Miami (and I'd like Ray to have a shot at another ring, he deserves it).  Just not sure how a trade would fit, dollars-wise.  All of their bigger contracts (to make the $$s work) seem to have another year to go, and I'm not smart enough to figure out how a three-way trade might look.  Taj Gibson is still the guy that I would *love* to get back, but I highly doubt he'd be available.

The difference between Asik and Perk is that Asik is restricted, opening up sign and trade possibilities, and he's bound by the weird 2nd round pick rules, which I believe force down his contract in the first couple years of his extension (and cap experts who can comment?).

I also like that he's a better rebounder than Perk: I think it makes him a little more valuable as a big man overall.

As for the cap space, I think a trade like this would postpone any big cap moves for a year.  We'd hope that Rip would be a Ray stand-in next year.  Try to get KG back on a discount.  And have a quality defensive center in Asik cost controlled for two years (with the 2nd round pick cap rules).

[LooseCannon]

I'm not sure Danny would be looking to commit too much money to Asik, who I suspect will get a Gortat-like offer this summer.  He's shown enough in the minutes he's played that he'll get a fair amount of attention.  He's a good player, and teams know that.

As a player with two years for the Bulls, Asik would be an "early Bird" free agent, meaning that Chicago can give him 175% of his previous salary or the average salary, whichever is greater.

As a player who has been in the league for only two years, Asik is subject to the Gibert Arenas provision, so if the Bulls offer him a qualifying offer, then he is a restricted free agent and any offer sheet has the first year capped at the average salary.

[snively]

I'm not sure Danny would be looking to commit too much money to Asik, who I suspect will get a Gortat-like offer this summer.  He's shown enough in the minutes he's played that he'll get a fair amount of attention.  He's a good player, and teams know that.

As a player with two years for the Bulls, Asik would be an "early Bird" free agent, meaning that Chicago can give him 175% of his previous salary or the average salary, whichever is greater.

As a player who has been in the league for only two years, Asik is subject to the Gibert Arenas provision, so if the Bulls offer him a qualifying offer, then he is a restricted free agent and any offer sheet has the first year capped at the average salary.

I thought it was the first two years?

[Donoghus]

I mentioned this in another thread last month, I just don't see Chicago moving Asik (and pieces) for a package of Ray & parts.  They're going to want that size in the playoffs and I think that the package mentioned is actually a slight downgrade for the Bulls in regards to team depth.  I think it'd leave their frontcourt thin and I don't think the Ray addition is a huge upgrade on the current SG situation there to come act the expense of frontcourt depth.

Wouldnt be shocked if Korver & Brewer walk after this season for the Bulls too.

When the playoffs come around, I think it's a fair assumption that Asik's mpg will drop even further than the 15 he's averaging right now (as Noah absorbs more of a minutes burden).  Somewhere around the 10 he averaged last playoffs.

And Ray is a huge upgrade if Rip's 2nd half is as injury riddled as his first half (he's currently out with a shoulder issue).

That combined with the luxury tax concerns make me think it's a feasible scenario.

Anyways, what would you think of the proposed trade from the Celtics point of view?

They've been able to stay afloat quite well given their situation at the SG position up to this point in the season. (32-8). I have to think they're not entirely comforable with it but are willing to ride it out if need be.  I just don't think they'd give up Asik for that package centered around Ray that you mentioned.  They're pretty high on Asik to begin with.  The real question to ask is, whether or not, Ray is the guy to put them over the top against Miami?

For the Celtics end?  Asik would be a nice addition, especially if you can lock him up past this season at reasonable cost.  The other guys don't do much for me. 

 

They got along pretty swimmingly with Bogans as their starting 2 last year but they still went out and shelled out 2 guaranteed years for Rip to upgrade their starting 2 spot. 

That makes me think they believe greater offensive production from the 2-spot was what they identified as the key to beating Miami.

I think they identifed the issue that they had a career backup as their starting SG last year.

Greater offense would certainly be a concern too and I still think is an issue for this year's Bulls.

[Marcus13]

Awesome deal for Chicago; terrible for us.

We're going to trade for two players who combine to be worse than Ray.  Stiemer and Asik are virtually identical (especially once Asik gets into Doc's anti-rebounding situation).  And you can flip Watson with Moore or Dooling and never notice the difference

With that said...make the deal.  If we can't win the championship - let's help Chicago beat Miami

[snively]

Awesome deal for Chicago; terrible for us.

We're going to trade for two players who combine to be worse than Ray.  Stiemer and Asik are virtually identical (especially once Asik gets into Doc's anti-rebounding situation).  And you can flip Watson with Moore or Dooling and never notice the difference

With that said...make the deal.  If we can't win the championship - let's help Chicago beat Miami

Asik is very good all around defensive player and a great rebounder.  Stiemsma is a one-trick pony (blocked shots) who isn't that good at anything else, and downright terrible in some areas (post defense).  Very sizable difference in their capabilities.   

And Watson can score and create, two things that Dooling hasn't been able to do at an acceptable level.