Patriots 2011 Regular Season

[PosImpos]

Just did something that I think its pretty interesting.  So we all know how bad the defense is, but I basically compared throughout the course of the season our opponents PPG and then what we allowed.

What I found was that on Average New England's D allows .65 ppg less than their opponents scoring aveage.  

The highest scores allowed over opponents averages were,

Indy 24 allowed vs 15 average
Washington 27 allowed vs 18 average

Biggest variance the other way was holding KC to 3 points vs a scoring aveage of 13.


So I think what this information tells us is that the Pats D is average

Yeah, I think points allowed is a much more valuable metric than yards allowed.

The caveat to your point is that the Patriots were able to hold many of their opponents below their scoring averages because they forced field goals in the red zone instead of allowing touchdowns.  That's great, but part of that can be attributed to the fact that for basically the entire second half of the season, the Patriots didn't face a single really good quarterback, let alone an elite one.  

One could argue that in those red zone situations, an elite quarterback would have been much more successful in converting touchdowns instead of being forced to settle for field goals.

So, in other words, it still should be very troubling that in so many of their games this season, the Patriots allowed their opponents a great number of trips into the red zone; it could be argued that the only reason they didn't give up many more points and lose more games is that their opponents happened to be very bad at converting once they got there.

Bottom line, I agree that the defense is not as bad as the yards allowed numbers would imply.  However, I also think that it's impossible to say for sure just how good this defense is now until they are forced to play against a top 10 quarterback.  It will be interesting to see this weekend whether Flacco comes and plays like one (since he's very inconsistent).

[Rondo2287]

Just did something that I think its pretty interesting.  So we all know how bad the defense is, but I basically compared throughout the course of the season our opponents PPG and then what we allowed.

What I found was that on Average New England's D allows .65 ppg less than their opponents scoring aveage.  

The highest scores allowed over opponents averages were,

Indy 24 allowed vs 15 average
Washington 27 allowed vs 18 average

Biggest variance the other way was holding KC to 3 points vs a scoring aveage of 13.


So I think what this information tells us is that the Pats D is average

Yeah, I think points allowed is a much more valuable metric than yards allowed.

The caveat to your point is that the Patriots were able to hold many of their opponents below their scoring averages because they forced field goals in the red zone instead of allowing touchdowns.  That's great, but part of that can be attributed to the fact that for basically the entire second half of the season, the Patriots didn't face a single really good quarterback, let alone an elite one.  

One could argue that in those red zone situations, an elite quarterback would have been much more successful in converting touchdowns instead of being forced to settle for field goals.

Bottom line, I agree that the defense is not as bad as the yards allowed numbers would imply.  However, I also think that it's impossible to say for sure just how good this defense is now until they are forced to play against a top 10 quarterback.  It will be interesting to see this weekend whether Flacco comes and plays like one (since he's very inconsistent).

The point about the other team having an elite QB is Moot.  If they had an Elite QB their season PPG would have been higher.

My point is that in addition the patriots being middle of the road in points allowed, they also seem to be average in the sense that they allow just about as many points as teams normally score.

[Donoghus]

I've thought for most of the season that the defense has played better that the reputation they've gotten among many in the media.  I thought the two real atrocious performances were against the Steelers & Giants.  Nonetheless, they've been resilient the past couple of months. (Albeit, against a questionable schedule).

They've been middle of the road in points allowed all season and they definitely carry a "bend, don't break" style of play.  They seem to tighten up in the red zone, and like Pos mentioned, have allowed a fair share of field goals instead of touchdowns.   Between the 20s have been a totally different story, though.  They've been gashed from a yardage standpoint.  The most troubling aspect of their play this season has been the opponent's 3rd down conversion rate.  Its been awful from a Pats perspective.  Too many times we've seen them allow teams to continue drives.  Can't keep giving teams 2nd & 3rd chances.

The good news is that Chung & Spikes are back which is huge and McCourty has seemed to gotten better over the last month or so.  The move to safety in certain situations has been a good call on Belichick's part.  I also think the pass rush has improved a bit.  The defense, as a whole, has gotten much better as the season has progressed.

Whether or not its enough to win the AFC & the Super Bowl?  I don't know but I am more optimistic now than I was back in October/November.  Its been a fun ride so far and I hope it goes a few more weeks.

[PosImpos]

I've thought for most of the season that the defense has played better that the reputation they've gotten among many in the media.  I thought the two real atrocious performances were against the Steelers & Giants.  Nonetheless, they've been resilient the past couple of months. (Albeit, against a questionable schedule).

They've been middle of the road in points allowed all season and they definitely carry a "bend, don't break" style of play.  They seem to tighten up in the red zone, and like Pos mentioned, have allowed a fair share of field goals instead of touchdowns.   Between the 20s have been a totally different story, though.  They've been gashed from a yardage standpoint.  The most troubling aspect of their play this season has been the opponent's 3rd down conversion rate.  Its been awful from a Pats perspective.  Too many times we've seen them allow teams to continue drives.  Can't keep giving teams 2nd & 3rd chances.

The good news is that Chung & Spikes are back which is huge and McCourty has seemed to gotten better over the last month or so.  The move to safety in certain situations has been a good call on Belichick's part.  I also think the pass rush has improved a bit.  The defense, as a whole, has gotten much better as the season has progressed.

Whether or not its enough to win the AFC & the Super Bowl?  I don't know but I am more optimistic now than I was back in October/November.  Its been a fun ride so far and I hope it goes a few more weeks.

The really good news, with reference to my point about elite quarterbacks, is that given the remaining field of opponents, it's entirely possible that the Patriots will not have to face one. 

If Flacco plays more like his average self than himself on a good day, and if the 49ers make it to the Super Bowl, the Patriots could go all the way without facing an elite quarterback a single time since the matchup with the Steelers midway through the season.

[Donoghus]

Just did something that I think its pretty interesting.  So we all know how bad the defense is, but I basically compared throughout the course of the season our opponents PPG and then what we allowed.

What I found was that on Average New England's D allows .65 ppg less than their opponents scoring aveage.  

The highest scores allowed over opponents averages were,

Indy 24 allowed vs 15 average
Washington 27 allowed vs 18 average

Biggest variance the other way was holding KC to 3 points vs a scoring aveage of 13.


So I think what this information tells us is that the Pats D is average

Yeah, I think points allowed is a much more valuable metric than yards allowed.

The caveat to your point is that the Patriots were able to hold many of their opponents below their scoring averages because they forced field goals in the red zone instead of allowing touchdowns.  That's great, but part of that can be attributed to the fact that for basically the entire second half of the season, the Patriots didn't face a single really good quarterback, let alone an elite one.  

One could argue that in those red zone situations, an elite quarterback would have been much more successful in converting touchdowns instead of being forced to settle for field goals.

Bottom line, I agree that the defense is not as bad as the yards allowed numbers would imply.  However, I also think that it's impossible to say for sure just how good this defense is now until they are forced to play against a top 10 quarterback.  It will be interesting to see this weekend whether Flacco comes and plays like one (since he's very inconsistent).

The point about the other team having an elite QB is Moot.  If they had an Elite QB their season PPG would have been higher.

My point is that in addition the patriots being middle of the road in points allowed, they also seem to be average in the sense that they allow just about as many points as teams normally score.

Why is it moot?  The elite QB thing is a real concern.  They haven't faced a team in 2 months that had a bonafide Top 5 type QB.  And the two they faced, Eli & Rothleisberger, had a field day with that defense and resulted in losses for the Pats in both of those games.  They got lucky in the sense that Peytong Manning was out this season and they didn't play Rodgers or Brees this year and that the remaining quarterback on that list is Brady.

One of those guys is still playing too. 

[Rondo2287]

Just did something that I think its pretty interesting.  So we all know how bad the defense is, but I basically compared throughout the course of the season our opponents PPG and then what we allowed.

What I found was that on Average New England's D allows .65 ppg less than their opponents scoring aveage.  

The highest scores allowed over opponents averages were,

Indy 24 allowed vs 15 average
Washington 27 allowed vs 18 average

Biggest variance the other way was holding KC to 3 points vs a scoring aveage of 13.


So I think what this information tells us is that the Pats D is average

Yeah, I think points allowed is a much more valuable metric than yards allowed.

The caveat to your point is that the Patriots were able to hold many of their opponents below their scoring averages because they forced field goals in the red zone instead of allowing touchdowns.  That's great, but part of that can be attributed to the fact that for basically the entire second half of the season, the Patriots didn't face a single really good quarterback, let alone an elite one.  

One could argue that in those red zone situations, an elite quarterback would have been much more successful in converting touchdowns instead of being forced to settle for field goals.

Bottom line, I agree that the defense is not as bad as the yards allowed numbers would imply.  However, I also think that it's impossible to say for sure just how good this defense is now until they are forced to play against a top 10 quarterback.  It will be interesting to see this weekend whether Flacco comes and plays like one (since he's very inconsistent).

The point about the other team having an elite QB is Moot.  If they had an Elite QB their season PPG would have been higher.

My point is that in addition the patriots being middle of the road in points allowed, they also seem to be average in the sense that they allow just about as many points as teams normally score.

Why is it moot?  The elite QB thing is a real concern.  They haven't faced a team in 2 months that had a bonafide Top 5 type QB.  And the two they faced, Eli & Rothleisberger, had a field day with that defense and resulted in losses for the Pats in both of those games.  They got lucky in the sense that Peytong Manning was out this season and they didn't play Rodgers or Brees this year and that the remaining quarterback on that list is Brady.

One of those guys is still playing too. 

Pos said that an issue with my logic was that if the teams they played HAD an elite QB they would have scored more points because they wouldnt have had to settle for FG's in the red zone.

This idea is moot because my point is comparing our points allowed and PPG that our opponents have scored throughout the season.  If said teams had an elite QB their PPG throughout the season would logically be higher and therefore if they did score TD's instead of FG's in the red zone the comparison of PPG vs Points allowed by the Pats would still be similar.

Lets say Peyton Manning played for the Jets, odds are we wouldnt have allowed 21 points and 16 points in the two games, but chances are they wouldnt be averaging just 23.6 ppg either.

[Donoghus]

Just did something that I think its pretty interesting.  So we all know how bad the defense is, but I basically compared throughout the course of the season our opponents PPG and then what we allowed.

What I found was that on Average New England's D allows .65 ppg less than their opponents scoring aveage.  

The highest scores allowed over opponents averages were,

Indy 24 allowed vs 15 average
Washington 27 allowed vs 18 average

Biggest variance the other way was holding KC to 3 points vs a scoring aveage of 13.


So I think what this information tells us is that the Pats D is average

Yeah, I think points allowed is a much more valuable metric than yards allowed.

The caveat to your point is that the Patriots were able to hold many of their opponents below their scoring averages because they forced field goals in the red zone instead of allowing touchdowns.  That's great, but part of that can be attributed to the fact that for basically the entire second half of the season, the Patriots didn't face a single really good quarterback, let alone an elite one.  

One could argue that in those red zone situations, an elite quarterback would have been much more successful in converting touchdowns instead of being forced to settle for field goals.

Bottom line, I agree that the defense is not as bad as the yards allowed numbers would imply.  However, I also think that it's impossible to say for sure just how good this defense is now until they are forced to play against a top 10 quarterback.  It will be interesting to see this weekend whether Flacco comes and plays like one (since he's very inconsistent).

The point about the other team having an elite QB is Moot.  If they had an Elite QB their season PPG would have been higher.

My point is that in addition the patriots being middle of the road in points allowed, they also seem to be average in the sense that they allow just about as many points as teams normally score.

Why is it moot?  The elite QB thing is a real concern.  They haven't faced a team in 2 months that had a bonafide Top 5 type QB.  And the two they faced, Eli & Rothleisberger, had a field day with that defense and resulted in losses for the Pats in both of those games.  They got lucky in the sense that Peytong Manning was out this season and they didn't play Rodgers or Brees this year and that the remaining quarterback on that list is Brady.

One of those guys is still playing too. 

Pos said that an issue with my logic was that if the teams they played HAD an elite QB they would have scored more points because they wouldnt have had to settle for FG's in the red zone.

This idea is moot because my point is comparing our points allowed and PPG that our opponents have scored throughout the season.  If said teams had an elite QB their PPG throughout the season would logically be higher and therefore if they did score TD's instead of FG's in the red zone the comparison of PPG vs Points allowed by the Pats would still be similar.

Lets say Peyton Manning played for the Jets, odds are we wouldnt have allowed 21 points and 16 points in the two games, but chances are they wouldnt be averaging just 23.6 ppg either.

Pittsburgh scored 5 points above their season ppg against the Pats and beat the Pats.

[Rondo2287]

Lets take the above average QB's the pats played this year.  In these games the pats have combined to hold them 7.4 Points under their season scoring averages, or in other words, the Patriots have kept these teams with above average QB's within 1.85 pts of their season scoring averages.

Romo -7.1 pts
Big Ben +4.7 Pts
Eli -.6 pts
Rivers -4.4 pts


That is why I am fairly confident that if you put an Elite QB on some of these teams the patriots would still hold them too around their season scoring averages rendering the point moot.

[Rondo2287]

Just did something that I think its pretty interesting.  So we all know how bad the defense is, but I basically compared throughout the course of the season our opponents PPG and then what we allowed.

What I found was that on Average New England's D allows .65 ppg less than their opponents scoring aveage.  

The highest scores allowed over opponents averages were,

Indy 24 allowed vs 15 average
Washington 27 allowed vs 18 average

Biggest variance the other way was holding KC to 3 points vs a scoring aveage of 13.


So I think what this information tells us is that the Pats D is average

Yeah, I think points allowed is a much more valuable metric than yards allowed.

The caveat to your point is that the Patriots were able to hold many of their opponents below their scoring averages because they forced field goals in the red zone instead of allowing touchdowns.  That's great, but part of that can be attributed to the fact that for basically the entire second half of the season, the Patriots didn't face a single really good quarterback, let alone an elite one.  

One could argue that in those red zone situations, an elite quarterback would have been much more successful in converting touchdowns instead of being forced to settle for field goals.

Bottom line, I agree that the defense is not as bad as the yards allowed numbers would imply.  However, I also think that it's impossible to say for sure just how good this defense is now until they are forced to play against a top 10 quarterback.  It will be interesting to see this weekend whether Flacco comes and plays like one (since he's very inconsistent).

The point about the other team having an elite QB is Moot.  If they had an Elite QB their season PPG would have been higher.

My point is that in addition the patriots being middle of the road in points allowed, they also seem to be average in the sense that they allow just about as many points as teams normally score.

Why is it moot?  The elite QB thing is a real concern.  They haven't faced a team in 2 months that had a bonafide Top 5 type QB.  And the two they faced, Eli & Rothleisberger, had a field day with that defense and resulted in losses for the Pats in both of those games.  They got lucky in the sense that Peytong Manning was out this season and they didn't play Rodgers or Brees this year and that the remaining quarterback on that list is Brady.

One of those guys is still playing too. 

Pos said that an issue with my logic was that if the teams they played HAD an elite QB they would have scored more points because they wouldnt have had to settle for FG's in the red zone.

This idea is moot because my point is comparing our points allowed and PPG that our opponents have scored throughout the season.  If said teams had an elite QB their PPG throughout the season would logically be higher and therefore if they did score TD's instead of FG's in the red zone the comparison of PPG vs Points allowed by the Pats would still be similar.

Lets say Peyton Manning played for the Jets, odds are we wouldnt have allowed 21 points and 16 points in the two games, but chances are they wouldnt be averaging just 23.6 ppg either.

Pittsburgh scored 5 points above their season ppg against the Pats and beat the Pats.

Yes, and the Steelers also average something like 11 ppg down the stretch when Big Ben was playing hurt dragging down their scoring average. 

If you factor in the games when Big Ben was healthy the steelers were averaging 21.69 points which would be a scoring variance of 3.31 pts

[Donoghus]

Lets take the above average QB's the pats played this year.  In these games the pats have combined to hold them 7.4 Points under their season scoring averages, or in other words, the Patriots have kept these teams with above average QB's within 1.85 pts of their season scoring averages.

Romo -7.1 pts
Big Ben +4.7 Pts
Eli -.6 pts
Rivers -4.4 pts


That is why I am fairly confident that if you put an Elite QB on some of these teams the patriots would still hold them too around their season scoring averages rendering the point moot.

But is the Pats offense going to score their point scoring average facing the remaining defenses left?

Pats average around 32 ppg this season.  Baltimore allowed 16.6 ppg, San Francisco allowed 14.3 ppg, and the Giants allowed 25 ppg.  2 of the remaining defenses are Top 3 while the other one just knocked out the 15-1 #1 seed in the NFC and held the Pats to only 20 points in a meeting earlier this season.

There's no guarantee that the Pats offense hits their mark and that puts added pressure on the defense.

[Rondo2287]

Lets take the above average QB's the pats played this year.  In these games the pats have combined to hold them 7.4 Points under their season scoring averages, or in other words, the Patriots have kept these teams with above average QB's within 1.85 pts of their season scoring averages.

Romo -7.1 pts
Big Ben +4.7 Pts
Eli -.6 pts
Rivers -4.4 pts


That is why I am fairly confident that if you put an Elite QB on some of these teams the patriots would still hold them too around their season scoring averages rendering the point moot.

But is the Pats offense going to score their point scoring average facing the remaining defenses left?

Pats average around 32 ppg this season.  Baltimore allowed 16.6 ppg, San Francisco allowed 14.3 ppg, and the Giants allowed 25 ppg.  2 of the remaining defenses are Top 3 while the other one just knocked out the 15-1 #1 seed in the NFC and held the Pats to only 20 points in a meeting earlier this season.

There's no guarantee that the Pats offense hits thier mark and that puts added pressure on the defense.

Thats a fair point and I have no idea,

Against what I Would consider to be above average defenses the patriots are averaging 24.8 ppg.  Thats against the Jets twice, Giants, Steelers, and Dallas. So a little more than 7 points below their average.

My main point regardin scoring averages is that it looks like you can reasonably think that the patriots will hold their opponents to within  +/- 3 Pts of their scoring averages

[Rondo2287]

By Comparison

Pats hold teams to -.65 compared to scoring average
Baltimore holds teams to -3.2 Compared to scoring average

[nickagneta]

Rondo, regarding what you are claiming that, if we faced more elite QBs that the PPG given up would rise as well as the Opponents Points +/- Their Average PPG, that is true.

That would not make them an average defense. It would simply mean they were giving up points about equal to what a team normally scores.

But my guess is we would be giving up more yardage than the almost historical amount of yards we have given up and as you said, we would be giving up more points. That means the Pats PPG average would also climb and suddenly they wouldn't be amongst the middle of the pack in PPG, they would be down on the bottom.

That means historical amount of yardage given up and much more PPG which would put them near the bottom of the league and that would equal a very poor defense in my mind, not an average one.