Southwest
San Antonio:
PG: Jason Kidd
SG: Manu Ginobili
SF: Rip Hamilton
PF: Chris Kaman
C: Tim Duncan
Sixth men: Al Harrington, Hakim Warrick,
Role Players: Brad Miller, Carlos Arroyo, Andres Nocioni,
Injured: Marquis Daniels, DeSagana Diop
Dallas:
PG: Jarret Jack
SG: Josh Childress
SF: Richard Jefferson
PF: Dirk Nowitzki
C: Tyson Chandler
Sixth Man: Brandon Roy, Chris Andersen
Role Players: Tiago Splitter, Wes Johnson, Chris Duhon
Bench Warmers: Vladomir Radmonovic, Grevis Vasquez
New Orleans:
PG: Chris Paul
SG: Nick Young
SF: Wilson Chandler
PF: David West
C: Andris Biedrins
Sixth Men: Nazr Mohammed, Lou Williams, Anthony Parker
Role Players: Shelden Williams, Matt Bonner
Bench Warmers: Jamario Moon
Injured: Linas Kleiza
Memphis:
PG: Jose Calderon
SG: Luol Deng
SF: Rudy Gay
PF: Brandon Bass
C:Marc Gasol
Sixth Men: Eric Bledsoe, Courtney Lee, JaVale McGee
Role Players: Terrance Williams, Darrell Arthur
Bench Warmers: Louis Amindson
Houston :
PG: Tony Parker
SG: Kevin Martin
SF: Jonas Jerebko
PF: Luis Scola
C: Jason Thompson
Sixth Men: Brandon Jennings, Mehmet Okur (when healthy)
Role Players: Yi Jianlian, Sasha Vujacic, Andre Miller, Gerald Henderson
Injured: Kelenna Azubuike
Overall Record:
1) San Antonio**
2) Dallas**
3) Memphis
4) New Orleans
5) Houston
Sigh…Memphis, NO, and Houston are going to kill me for this one, and they’re right. One of the three of them should be in the playoffs, but I already picked 6 teams, so I only get to pick 2 here. I’d love to see a battle royal between Minnesota, Memphis, Houston and New Orleans. They’re all good teams that deserve a shot.
Well, anyways. I had Dallas ranked first, but without Brandon Roy for significant (most) of the season, I don’t know how good they really are. They’re a middling 4 or 5 seed without Roy to provide the leadership, toughness, and grittiness he is capable of, and who knows just what he’s really gonna be giving for the rest of the season. Because of that, I went with the sure thing, despite not liking a lot of the guys on San Antonio’s squad. I don’t like Harrington, Warrick, or Nocioni at all in these roles. Look at the guys who succeed in San Antonio…DaJuan Blair, Matt Bonner, Robert Horry, Antonio McDyess…what do they all share? Stretch 4’s who are good team defenders that do not dominate the ball..with the exception of Blair, who is just a beast. None of San An’s bench or Kamans match that description..and Chris Kaman will miss half the season before its all said and done anyways. But, Tim Duncan led squads have not missed the playoffs in 13 straight seasons so…yeah. I’m not betting against them. Plus, with Manu Ginobli reprising his role, Jason Kidd adding a different (but for my money, effective) flavor, and Rip Hamilton going for a career resurgence..I just can’t say no to them.
Memphis to me is the most talented team in the division. They deserve a 4 seed in the East, and they ought to get a 6th seed or so in the West. I’m luke-warm on Calderon, and skeptical about Luol Deng, because I just have never really liked the guy as a player..but it works. Deng is capable of defending 3 positions, and so Is Rudy Gay..Jose Calderon I hope has enough left in the tank to make the right passes to take advantage of all of Memphis’s weapons.
New Orleans has the best point guard in the game…most nights. Lately, Chris Paul has been looking more and more ordinary..and without Paul, this team is pretty weak on both sides of the ball. Andris Biedrins and David West, or any combination of players really that patrol the post are not real defensive stalwarts, and if you can keep New Orleans in a half-court set without letting Paul dominate, they’re going to lose a fair amount of games. However, that road can go the other way too..if Paul is on his game, and his players are hitting their jumpers..Nick Young and Wilson Chandler are better offensive complements than Paul has had in years at the wing. Add in a stretch 4/5 in Matt Bonner to further clear the lane for CP3 and Wilson Chandler to work..and this team should surprise some good squads.
Houston doesn’t have a legitimate healthy center on its roster. That’s gotta be the starting point here. A heathy Mehmet Okur from a year and a half ago makes this team substantially different..it makes them a real dangerous team. But, while Jason Thompson is an okay stop measure for a poor team at the 5..for a team that wants to really do some damage I don’t think Thompson can anchor a defense. After the depressing situation in the paint though, things pick up. Kevin Martin is a proven scorer (I tried to pry him loose from Houston myself, and it didn’t work out), Tony Parker is a winner and leader, and Luis Scola can only really be described as a ‘beast’. However, Jonas Jerbko is not an option yet..(he’s out until at least March this season), and it looks like Houston would need to start Sasha Vujacic in some capacity when Jerbko is out.
Pick 2 Success
-I define Pick 2 Success as a strange mixture of how you compare to your original team, mixed with future outlook, and just how much I like how it fits together.
1) Memphis
2) Dallas
3) New Orleans
4) San Antonio
5) Houston
Thoughts: Memphis replaced Mike Conley Jr with Jose Calderon (significant downgrade), Tony Allen with Luol Deng (significant upgrade), and Zach Randolph with Brandon Bass (a downgrade..but I wonder how much it will matter). That’s 2 downs to one up in the starting 5. The thing is, the keepers and Luol Deng have incredible potential. The way Marc Gasol is used now is the equivalent of using a BMW as a commuter car. Sure, its not a Rolls Royce or a Lamborghini..but its still a darn BMW! Marc Gasol can comfortably become a 16 or 17 ppg scorer without drastically changing the offense. Then, on the bench, they have a very solid 8 man rotation rounded out by Eric Bledsoe (change of pace guard), Courtney Lee (defensive 2 guard, which is good because both Deng/Gay can play the 3 or 2, so either one can rest), and improving young defensive presence JaVale McGee. This is a significant step forward because Memphis’s current bench is absolute garbage.
Dallas gets an A+ in my book too, because they took the biggest flaw in Dallas’s current roster (starting Shawn Marion at the 3 where Caron Butler once was) and puts an efficient, effective, true small forward next to Dirk. Jarret Jack is a different look than Jason Kidd, and probably a significantly worse one, but Richard Jefferson and the chance that Brandon Roy might be the greatest sixth man ever aside from Kevin McHale, that’s gotta mean something.
New Orleans I’m 50/50 on. I like 50% of the roster and I don’t so much like 50% of the roster. I like CP3, Wilson Chandler, and David West as starters, and I like Lou Williams, Nazr Mo, Matt Bonner, and Anthony Parker off the bench. Everyone else, I don’t like so much. In the starting rotation, Nick Young and Andris Biedrins get no love from me. Both players earlier in their careers looked like they might someday move forward into complete players, but ultimately it looks like that’s not going to be the case. I think both players will help in certain roles, but Nick Young is a black hole on offense and a sieve on defense while Andris Biedrins has been in the league 6 years, and still only manages to get 25 mins a night, where he’s achieving 4 fouls and 1 free throw attempted, despite being 7 feet tall and surrounded by shooters. The guy should have a free pass in the paint in Golden State (and if you’re wondering what centers can do there..look at guys like Anthony Tolliver or Anthony Randolph..there are inflated stats to be had). Off the bench, I don’t think Shelden Williams is not truly gifted enough to take advantage of CP3’s perks, and Nazr Mohammed is a good player on a bad team kinda guy. This team needs a more consistent big to anchor the defense if they’re next to David West, and they don’t got right now.
San Antonio tried to get back some of what they lost in Tony Parker, and Kidd is as good as they’re going to do, picking number 30 I guess (although I think they should’ve used their first round pick on a pg..perhaps Aaron Brooks? Kyle Lowry? Someone faster and younger than Kidd?). Can’t say I’m a fan of Chris Kaman as their 1st round pick, when guys like Ty Thomas, Serge Ibaka, even Jeff Green or Ryan Anderson make more sense next to Duncan. However, the foundation is sound the they didn’t really deviate from the plan..if 0 is average, -2 is bad and 2 is awesome, they get a .3…under the circumstances I think they stayed as close to the actual Spurs paradigm as you’re going to get.
Houston came close to something great here, and don’t let that thought slip by you. They started out with a core of Tony Parker, Kevin Martin, and Luis Scola. That’s a JaVale McGee or some other 7ft defensive menace away from sure fire playoff status. But, they kept going BPA, and didn’t like any of the deals they got their hands on. Brandon Jennings for 2(12) or whatever…definitely better than anything on the board, but he already had Tony Parker. Next, round, Andre Miller was the BPA, and rather than pass on Andre Miller, he took him and wanted to flip him later. Unfortunately, like a realtor in 2009, (too soon?) Champ got stuck with a bunch of assets he didn’t want or need, and a team with huge holes. Jerebko is out for the year nearly after a pre-seaosn injury (and he’s better as a 4 anyways) and lo and behold, he’s starting Gerald Hendersen or Sasha Vujacic.