Adrian Gonzalez to Red Sox

[kozlodoev]

Crawford is the better talent but I think Werth would be the better fit for this team.  

Don't we already have JD for to fill the "overpaid, ineffective slugger" slot?

Do you know something about Jayson Werth that the rest of us don't?

I'd love to hear this "insider scoop".

I don't know anything no-one else knows. That is, of course, assuming that everyone is aware of the obvious: Werth has never batted .300, can't hit with runners in scoring position, and is already 31.

I think that's plenty. Take 2009 off his resume, and you're looking at JD's long-lost twin brother. And, to top it off, I hear he's as boring as Drew, too.  

[Vermont Green]

Upton is still raw and hasn't reached his potential yet. I would make the trade for Gonzalez over where Upton is right now. Gonzalez produced 31/101/.298/l.393 for a team where he had zero protection. It doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to trade 3 of your top prospects for a guy that hasn't reached full potential like Upton. Also, you have to be cautious about Beltre. If you look at his history he produces in a contract year, but if you're signing him to a long term contract (which he wont sign at anything less than that) you can expect something around 18-20 homers and and 80-90 RBI's. That's not going to be good enough in the AL.

I like Gonzalez, I just don't want to trade prospects of this calibar and overpay on a long term contract.  Beltre/Upton would come at the same trade and contract as AG or probably less but throw in the cost for another OF and the cost of AG+FA-OF is huge.  Just getting AG does not fill enough holes.

Hey, it is just my opinion and I understand where you are coming from but there comes a point in any deal where you just have to walk away.

[Redz]

Crawford is the better talent but I think Werth would be the better fit for this team.  

Don't we already have JD for to fill the "overpaid, ineffective slugger" slot?

Do you know something about Jayson Werth that the rest of us don't?

I'd love to hear this "insider scoop".

I don't know anything no-one else knows. That is, of course, assuming that everyone is aware of the obvious: Werth has never batted .300, can't hit with runners in scoring position, and is already 31.

I think that's plenty. Take 2009 off his resume, and you're looking at JD's long-lost twin brother. And, to top it off, I hear he's as boring as Drew, too.  

Out of the list of things to complain about JD Drew, "boring" has never been very high on the list. 

Mariano Rivera's not the most emotional guy, but I'd take him.

[Donoghus]

Crawford is the better talent but I think Werth would be the better fit for this team.  

Don't we already have JD for to fill the "overpaid, ineffective slugger" slot?

Do you know something about Jayson Werth that the rest of us don't?

I'd love to hear this "insider scoop".

I don't know anything no-one else knows. That is, of course, assuming that everyone is aware of the obvious: Werth has never batted .300, can't hit with runners in scoring position, and is already 31.

I think that's plenty. Take 2009 off his resume, and you're looking at JD's long-lost twin brother. And, to top it off, I hear he's as boring as Drew, too.  

The boring part I could really care less about.  How does that affect his production on the field? 

In regards to the .300 thing, I'm of the feeling that you don't need all .300 hitters in your lineup.  If his power numbers remain relatively constant of those of the past 3 years and he hits .275, I'm fine with that.  Having a guy or two in the lineup who can hit 25+ HR and put up 80+ RBIs regardless of batting average is a consolation I'm more than open to having.  As long as the deal isn't for 5 years or greater, I have no problem taking him on at the age of 31.

[NEsportsfan]

Upton is still raw and hasn't reached his potential yet. I would make the trade for Gonzalez over where Upton is right now. Gonzalez produced 31/101/.298/l.393 for a team where he had zero protection. It doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to trade 3 of your top prospects for a guy that hasn't reached full potential like Upton. Also, you have to be cautious about Beltre. If you look at his history he produces in a contract year, but if you're signing him to a long term contract (which he wont sign at anything less than that) you can expect something around 18-20 homers and and 80-90 RBI's. That's not going to be good enough in the AL.

I like Gonzalez, I just don't want to trade prospects of this calibar and overpay on a long term contract.  Beltre/Upton would come at the same trade and contract as AG or probably less but throw in the cost for another OF and the cost of AG+FA-OF is huge.  Just getting AG does not fill enough holes.

Hey, it is just my opinion and I understand where you are coming from but there comes a point in any deal where you just have to walk away.

Some times teams can tout their prospects too highly. The Red Sox tend to do that a lot. Prospects are just that, prospects. Kelly had a +5.00 ERA for Portland last year, he is still a few years away and by that time Ranaudo will be ready and I can tell you that the Sox feel that Ranaudo will be as good as Kelly at the very least. The Sox have also touted that Rizzo is the best power guy in their system, which is true, but that comment shouldn't hold a lot of water because the Sox system lacks a lot of power. Fuentes is still a long ways away.

Look at it this way. The Sox were able to keep Kalish, Lowrie, Ranaudo, Doubront, Iglesias, Reddick and Britton. I just have a funny feeling that Upton was going to cost more because he is younger and signed to a team friendly contract, but isn't close to A-Gone's production. Also, the early reports of what the Diamondbacks wanted for Upton started at Ellsbury and Bard plus top end prospects.

[moiso]

It's been a long time since the Sox aquired a hitter this good.  We finally get our version of Mark Texiera. 

[Greenbean]

We get Gonzo without giving up BOTH Kelly and Iglesias....unbelievable. Go get Crawford now.

[Bahku]

We get Gonzo without giving up BOTH Kelly and Iglesias....unbelievable. Go get Crawford now.

I think Crawford is the next acquisition ... I'm loving these developments, and already psyched about the coming season. Man, this team needed an injection of fresh blood badly, and so far it's been accomplished without giving up a heckuva lot.

[Fan from VT]

I would prefer Crawford even though he's more expensive for these major reasons:

1. Crawford is generally considered the consensus better overall player
2. The history of paying big bucks for the second best option is almost always worse than paying more money for the best option.


That said, I looked at Werth's numbers again...he's quite good at the plate. Depending on the deal, i would not be sad to settle for him.

[kozlodoev]

I would prefer Crawford even though he's more expensive for these major reasons:

1. Crawford is generally considered the consensus better overall player
2. The history of paying big bucks for the second best option is almost always worse than paying more money for the best option.


That said, I looked at Werth's numbers again...he's quite good at the plate. Depending on the deal, i would not be sad to settle for him.

The one number that should stick out: .182(!!!) with runners in scoring position.

[Greenbean]

I would prefer Crawford even though he's more expensive for these major reasons:

1. Crawford is generally considered the consensus better overall player
2. The history of paying big bucks for the second best option is almost always worse than paying more money for the best option.


That said, I looked at Werth's numbers again...he's quite good at the plate. Depending on the deal, i would not be sad to settle for him.

The one number that should stick out: .182(!!!) with runners in scoring position.

Yeah that really makes me nervous. Speaking of that number...

Adrien Gonzalez

.407 w/ risp!!!!!!!!!!!

[Fan from VT]

I would prefer Crawford even though he's more expensive for these major reasons:

1. Crawford is generally considered the consensus better overall player
2. The history of paying big bucks for the second best option is almost always worse than paying more money for the best option.


That said, I looked at Werth's numbers again...he's quite good at the plate. Depending on the deal, i would not be sad to settle for him.

The one number that should stick out: .182(!!!) with runners in scoring position.

I think those things are fluky.

In terms of avg/obp/slg/ops, in 2010, 2009 and 2008:

.186   .353   .314   .667
.279   .407   .510   .917
.274   .385   .453   .838

So the same for the past three years total looks like this:
.244   .381   .425   .806

Which includes the '08 and '09 above and the very bad '10.
That's compared to his 3 year totals from '08-'10 in all situations:
.279   .376   .513   .889


So that 3 year total for RISP is definitely lower than non-RISP situations, but it's not that much lower and, up until last year, was not lower at all!

[Greenbean]

I would prefer Crawford even though he's more expensive for these major reasons:

1. Crawford is generally considered the consensus better overall player
2. The history of paying big bucks for the second best option is almost always worse than paying more money for the best option.


That said, I looked at Werth's numbers again...he's quite good at the plate. Depending on the deal, i would not be sad to settle for him.

Yeah that really makes me nervous. Speaking of that number...

Adrien Gonzalez

.407 w/ risp!!!!!!!!!!!

Also with batters with at least 100 pa w/ risp, Gonzo #1 at .407


Coming in at #4 at .359.......you guessed it, Carl Crawford!

[Fan from VT]

Upton is still raw and hasn't reached his potential yet. I would make the trade for Gonzalez over where Upton is right now. Gonzalez produced 31/101/.298/l.393 for a team where he had zero protection. It doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to trade 3 of your top prospects for a guy that hasn't reached full potential like Upton. Also, you have to be cautious about Beltre. If you look at his history he produces in a contract year, but if you're signing him to a long term contract (which he wont sign at anything less than that) you can expect something around 18-20 homers and and 80-90 RBI's. That's not going to be good enough in the AL.

The other risk with upton is that he will follow the career arc of BJ Upton...looking washed up on the downside at 26 after being unstoppable at 23.

[bucknersrevenge]

Upton is still raw and hasn't reached his potential yet. I would make the trade for Gonzalez over where Upton is right now. Gonzalez produced 31/101/.298/l.393 for a team where he had zero protection. It doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to trade 3 of your top prospects for a guy that hasn't reached full potential like Upton. Also, you have to be cautious about Beltre. If you look at his history he produces in a contract year, but if you're signing him to a long term contract (which he wont sign at anything less than that) you can expect something around 18-20 homers and and 80-90 RBI's. That's not going to be good enough in the AL.

I like Gonzalez, I just don't want to trade prospects of this calibar and overpay on a long term contract.  Beltre/Upton would come at the same trade and contract as AG or probably less but throw in the cost for another OF and the cost of AG+FA-OF is huge.  Just getting AG does not fill enough holes.

Hey, it is just my opinion and I understand where you are coming from but there comes a point in any deal where you just have to walk away.

We are nowhere near at that point. Kelly is at least 2 years away from even being a contributor to a team that already has its top 4 starters signed thru 2014. Rizzo at BEST may one day end up as good as Gonzalez and that's probably 3 years away and with Gonzo now Rizzo is blocked from his primary position. And make no mistake here: they will sign him to an extension. Fuentes right now has raw athletic ability and little power. He projects well but with the picks we're gonna get we'll be able to replenish our system.

When you have an opportunity to acquire an established(but still young) impact power bat for the middle of your lineup and all it costs are 3 kids that are at least 3 years from real contribution it's a no-brainer. It's less than a no-brainer.

In case anyone forgot how was the Sox offense last year? 2nd in the majors in runs scored you say?? Not too shabby. Yes we lose Victor and Beltre but let's see. Last year Youk missed 60 games. Pedey missed 87 games. Cameron missed like every game. and Ellsbury's absence for 140 games needs no explanation. So any talk about us still having more offensive holes to fill is absolutely hogwash. Here's our projected lineup:

CF Ells
2B Pedey
1B Agon
3B Youk
DH Papi
RF Drew
LF Cameron/Kalish/DMac
C Salty/Captain
SS Scutaro

We had unprecedented injuries last year. With less injury, an improved Kalish and AGon our offense will be just fine. We just need better years now from Beckett, Lackey and our bullpen and we'll score plenty of runs to win.

If it's between Crawford and Werth Im for Crawford. Werth I wouldn't off more than 4 for 60mil