Rockets have to be the team that C's trade Rasheed's contract to.

[nickagneta]

The more I see that the Celtics are taking their time in dealing with Rasheed Wallace's situation, the more I think that Danny is waiting out the Houston Rockets and what they see they have and what they have to do to move players to get them under the luxury tax threshold. I believe at this point the Rockets have 15 players signed to guaranteed contracts, two players signed to non-guaranteed contracts, and a payroll of about $74-75 million. That means players are going to have to go.

Let's take a look at their depth chart:

Aaron Brooks/Kyle Lowry
Kevin Martin/Shane Battier/Jermaine Taylor
Trevor Ariza/Chase Budinger/Jared Jeffries/Mike Harris
Luis Scola/Chuck Hayes/Patrick Patterson/Alexander Johnson
Yao Ming/Brad Miller/David Anderson/Jordan Hill

Here's the details. Johnson and Harris have non-guaranteed contracts. I put Hayes in the back up PF slot but he is really a center. Battier, who once with his length and athleticism and size, was a wonderful defensive SG, is now more of a SF and given Martin playing the SG spot, won't be getting a ton of playing time at the SG spot. That means he's going to have to get playing time at SF but the Rockets are really higher on 2nd year player Chase Budinger and also have jJared Jeffries, a 3/4 hybrid defender playing there.

Any way look look at it Houston has a glut of centers and SFs and will have to move someone. My guess is that their desire would be to move Jeffries and Hayes. My guess is they will probably have to give up Jordan Hill to get rid of Jeffries or Battier to get rid of Hayes.

They will need to get back salary cap relief to get under the luxury tax threshold and probably either a SG, a prospect, a first round or some combination thereof. Yes, Houston will probably be looking for a trade exception to do it with as the trade exception is more valuable than Rasheed's contract because of it's ability to procure a future player, but the team's with the big exceptions probably aren't going to be giving them up for the likes of Battier, Jeffries, Hayes, Hill, or Anderson.

So I say. it's just a waiting game and a long term negotiation that is probably already in the works. It may probably last into the season but I think Houston and Boston will be involved in a trade and that Boston will be filling in a need for another big and a back up SF with this trade. 

[Who]

I don't think Houston need a salary dump. I reckon they're fine where their payroll is.

[Fafnir]

I don't think Houston need a salary dump. I reckon they're fine where their payroll is.

Aren't they trying to contend now with Yao back?

[Bankshot]

I hope you're right.  I would love to have Battier or Ariza.  I'd say we'd be back in serious contention with that trade.

[nickagneta]

I don't think Houston need a salary dump. I reckon they're fine where their payroll is.

The Rockets, even at the height of the T-Mac Yao pseudo-contender years have never paid luxury taxes. It's not what they do. I don't care if they are going to try to contend again this year, they are not going to shell out $5-7 million in luxury tax and not take in the $2-4 million in redistributed funds that the league shells out because of the luxury tax.

I believe you are wrong in this regard Who.

[Who]

I don't think Houston need a salary dump. I reckon they're fine where their payroll is.

The Rockets, even at the height of the T-Mac Yao pseudo-contender years have never paid luxury taxes. It's not what they do. I don't care if they are going to try to contend again this year, they are not going to shell out $5-7 million in luxury tax and not take in the $2-4 million in redistributed funds that the league shells out because of the luxury tax.

I believe you are wrong in this regard Who.

Yeah, I know about the Rockets reluctance to pay the luxury tax in the past. That is why I was so surprised a few months ago when their owner + GM both came out and said they were willing to pay whatever it takes to keep hold of Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry. I thought they'd let one of those guys go. But they've backed it up every step of the way. And then went above and beyond the call to duty by over-paying Brad Miller to guarantee his signature.

There were also some rumours that Houston are still looking to make another move. That they were talking to Philadelphia about a week ago trying to get them to part with Andre Iguodala and were willing to take on more money to already bloated payroll.

They've shown no signs of wanting to move salary at the cost of talent. None.

Furthermore, the owner, Les Alexander has made a boat load of money over the past few years. All that Chinese cash that has been coming in from Yao Ming. I think the team has made somewhere around $150 million over the past five years. I think that has given him the financial wherewithal to pay out these huge sums of money.

I also think he's fed up with his team not being a true contender, only winning one playoff series in the last dozen years + I think he's a massive believer in Daryl Morey. I think he'd give Morey whatever he needs to put this team over the top because he firmly believes Morey can deliver. That Morey has shown himself to be an excellent judge of talent and has made huge progress with the team in a short period of time with limited assets.

I see no signs from this team that they're looking to cut costs at the expense of talent. This is a team that is looking forward and doing whatever it takes to reach that next goal (an NBA Title). They continue to prove that with every decision they've made over the past year.

[Birdbrain]

Houston's roster reminds me of Portlands of 2 years ago.  Lots of good talent from top to bottom and not nearly enough minutes to spread amongst them which invariably leads to too many options for the coach.  Most really good teams have up to about 10 players you would consider part of a rotation and a few that would be needed for depth and injuries.

I can see Houston moving some of their players for that reason alone.  It might not be until the trade deadline though.

Nick thanks for the all hard work putting that post together.

TP

[Who]

I don't think Houston need a salary dump. I reckon they're fine where their payroll is.

The Rockets, even at the height of the T-Mac Yao pseudo-contender years have never paid luxury taxes. It's not what they do. I don't care if they are going to try to contend again this year, they are not going to shell out $5-7 million in luxury tax and not take in the $2-4 million in redistributed funds that the league shells out because of the luxury tax.

I believe you are wrong in this regard Who.

Discussion aside for a moment ... just a quick note on the payroll -- by my calculations the Rockets are up in the $80 million range. Not $75 million.

   * Yao Ming – $17.69 million
    * Kevin Martin – $10.6 million
    * Luis Scola ~~ $7.7 million
    * Shane Battier – $7.35 million
    * Jared Jeffries – $6.88 million
    * Trevor Ariza – $6.32 million
    * Kyle Lowry ~~ $5.75 million
    * Brad Miller ~~ $5 million
    * Jordan Hill – $2.67 million
    * David Andersen – $2.5 million
    * Chuck Hayes – $2.33 million
    * Aaron Brooks – $2.02 million
    * Pattrick Patterson – $1.82 million
    * Chase Budinger – $780k
    * Jermaine Taylor – $780k

That gives us a total of $80.2 million for a full roster of 15 players.

So, almost $10 million over the luxury tax threshold ($70.3 mil) bringing their overall payroll up to $90 million.

[Jon]

I don't think Houston need a salary dump. I reckon they're fine where their payroll is.

I agree.  They were a solid team last year without Yao.  With him back, they could be more. 

Plus, there's probably better ways for them to dump salary than just giving away Shane Battier. 

[nickagneta]

Who, I think you are right about the salary amount. the site I was looking at didn't have Lowry's first year in it.

As for the owner saying he would pay what he had to to get Scola and Lowry signed, well, that's different from saying he would pay whatever it is he has to to put a title contender together. He can still pay Lowry and Scola what they have to to retain them and still not pay luxury tax.

We will have to see who is correct but I just don't see this ownership changing their spots overnight and reversing a history of not paying those luxury taxes. They can put an NBA title contending team together, be 11 players deep in high quality depth and still move enough salary to get near or below the luxury tax while collecting future draft picks.

As I said in the OP, it's going to be a waiting game. If Houston comes out strong but sees they aren't using certain players, they may deem them expendable. If they come out slow and ownership decides a shake up is necessary or that the team just isn't going to be able to compete for a title, then a move to cut salary will definitely happen.

I think C's fans are going to have to be patient to see how things play out in Houston before Danny can strike for optimum value with them, which I think he ultimately will

[Chris]

I don't think Houston need a salary dump. I reckon they're fine where their payroll is.

I agree.  Although I still think they matchup as a team trying to obtain a star, and might find a package of Sheed and a pick as a very valuable asset in a deal. 

The Rockets have an aggressive GM, who has made it clear he wants to use his assets to make the leap into the elite teams in the league, and the C's could help them do that, and get a very good wing for their troubles. 

[Who]

My view on the Rockets is that Daryl Morey is accumulating assets with an eye on making a major mid-season trade. That he will be willing to put anything on the table outside of of Yao/Scola and maybe Martin in attempt to bring in that final piece that pushes Houston over the top.

I would expect Houston to be very active in trade discussions before the trading deadline.

[aporel#18]

I'd love to get Battier in a trade, but I think Houston has the roster they want. They have Yao (and lots of Chinese money), they have young quality players, they have good reserves, and most of all, they have flexibility: Battier, Jeffries, Hayes and Jordan Hill are all expirings, and huge trade assets. Combined, they make 19 mil, and Yao, also expiring, makes 17,6. They could trade at the deadline Jeffries, Hayes and Jordan Hill, and take around 14 mil in return (if you include Brooks and draft picks you could get Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Brandon Roy, Andrew Bynum, Jason Richardson... even one out of the Miami Hype Machine if they end their friendship).

Morey will rip off someone next february... again

[nickagneta]

Well, the Houston Rockets just sent center David Anderson to the Toronto Raptors for a second round draft pick cutting $2.5 million from their salary cap figure.

Letting the cost cutting begin!!!

[CelticHooligan3]

Anyone else last year notice Tommys man-crush on Chase Buddinger?? He made that move where he caught the ball and went up with it in one fluid motion. Perk I think was guarding him at the time and he didn't even see the ball leave the kids hands let alone jump. Tommy claimed he hadn't seen that move in years. I'm a younger poster here on Celtics blog clocking in at the ripe old age of 24 but I love seeing those old school moves and tactics that the NBA has gotten away from. You gotta appreciate the forefathers and innovators of that type of stuff. That being said I'd love to get Buddinger although I realize it's unrealidtic as an earlier poster mentioned the Rockets are quite high on the kid. I see why tho and I love his game.