IT'S NOT A FOR SURE THING, THAT JOHN WALL IS GOING IN THE DRAFT........LOOKS LIKE HE MAY NOT BE READY TO GROW UP YET(dont necessarily blame him, if he's not ready be grown and on his own, it is a smart decision to wait until you are ready):
http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/65710/20100401/wall_taking_time_on_nba_decision/
Wall will declare.
do you have insider info? maybe the kid bucks the trend and gives Kentucky another shot...
It's very doubtful, especially with the CBA changing (meaning potentially less guaranteed money for rookies.)
I don't think the rookie scale contracts will change in the new CBA. They are already long (four years) and cheap. It will be difficult for the owners to get much traction on that while arguing bigger issues elsewhere.
I think ownership may focus on the second contract, the first contract after the rookie scale, and try to dial that back some. But not the rookie contract itself.
I don't think this is necessarily true. The top 8 picks in the draft all make more money than an LLE contract and are guaranteed for 2 years. And top 8 picks are not guaranteed players. Look at Joe Alexander, Brandon Wright, Sheldon Williams, Adam Morrison, Rafael Araujo, and Darko Milicic to name a few.
These teams are so invested in these players that almost have to allow them that third and fourth year of the rookie scale contracts to see if they develop. By the time that contract is over, if those players haven't panned out the teams has invested somewhere between $10-20 million in that player.
Then look at the other end of the spectrum. Down in the bottom 8 of the first round the contracts are guaranteed for two years minimum but lets face it, the talent level and success level of players there are only slightly better than the first 10-15 picks in the second round where there are no guarantees other than the veteran minimum contracts. Ask any GM and invariably they will admit they would much prefer to have a top 5 second round pick than a bottom 5 first round pick.
I think there definitely should be some leeway worked into this system and I think with the ability of the owners to hold drug testing and percentage of the BRI over the heads of the players as major negotiating stickler points, that the players will cave into demands to restructure the rookie scale for an extra percentage point or three of the BRI or less stringent PED testing.