Red Sox 2010

[Bahku]

A thread devoted to general discussion of the Boston Red Sox 2010 regular season baseball.

                                       

Go Red Sox!!

[Bahku]

I'm loving what I saw from Beckett today ... sweet.

[Greenbean]

Who needs a diversion?

I can't think of a better place to look than spring training, where the grass is always greener!

Things I am looking forward to:

1. A dominant defensive outfield and a top tier defensive infield.

2. 3 potential aces, 1 potential future ace (buch), and 1 japanese import with talent who is pitching for pride this season.

3. A bounce back year from Big Papi. He has one big year left in him.

4. A-Gon at the deadline.

5. V-Mart being the team MVP and a clutch hitter.

6. Beltre finiding his Fenway stroke a la Mikey Lowell in 2007.

7. Paps dominating after letting down the team in an elimination game last year. (Plus he is pitching for money and respect)

8. A fun double play combination in Pedey ans Scutaro

9. Jacoby Ellsbury threatening 100 steals with his legs being saved from the outfield shift.

10. A JD Drew contract year. Count on a more aggressive hitter with runners on base.

11. Winning with alot of home grown talent.


I really could go on forever. It's spring training! Bask in the positive energy!

[Evantime34]

Who needs a diversion?

I can't think of a better place to look than spring training, where the grass is always greener!

Things I am looking forward to:

1. A dominant defensive outfield and a top tier defensive infield.

2. 3 potential aces, 1 potential future ace (buch), and 1 japanese import with talent who is pitching for pride this season.

3. A bounce back year from Big Papi. He has one big year left in him.

4. A-Gon at the deadline.

5. V-Mart being the team MVP and a clutch hitter.

6. Beltre finiding his Fenway stroke a la Mikey Lowell in 2007.

7. Paps dominating after letting down the team in an elimination game last year. (Plus he is pitching for money and respect)

8. A fun double play combination in Pedey ans Scutaro

9. Jacoby Ellsbury threatening 100 steals with his legs being saved from the outfield shift.

10. A JD Drew contract year. Count on a more aggressive hitter with runners on base.

11. Winning with alot of home grown talent.


I really could go on forever. It's spring training! Bask in the positive energy!

I think we can win it this year.
Elite pitching and defense will be our bread and butter.

I think people are underestimating our offense. I hope that we hit so that we don't need to trade for Gonzalez and keep our prospects.
Compare our lineup to that of last year

1. Jacoby will be better this year, after another year of development.
2. Pedroia should be about the same.
3. Youk stays healthy and gives us better numbers
4. Papi hits much better than he did last year
5. Beltre in Fenway has much better numbers than a broken down Lowell
6. Scutaro a better hitter than anyone we ran out at short last year
7. A full season of V-Mart is better than what TEk did last year
8. JD Drew if healthy should put up similar numbers to last year
9. Cameron will be worse than Bay but he should hit a 25+ home runs which isn't that big of a drop from Bay.

So I expect an increase or the same production from all positions except for Left.

[Donoghus]

I'm still worried about the offense.  I really wish we had that true power bat.  I don't think Papi will ever be that again and it helped when Manny was around too. (Not that I'd want him back at this point).  Just like last postseason, I have my question marks about whether this team can put up timely, clutch hitting when the stakes are raised and they're facing ace pitching.

[Greenbean]

I'm still worried about the offense.  I really wish we had that true power bat.  I don't think Papi will ever be that again and it helped when Manny was around too. (Not that I'd want him back at this point).  Just like last postseason, I have my question marks about whether this team can put up timely, clutch hitting when the stakes are raised and they're facing ace pitching.

The way I feel isnt exactly worried. It's more of "it would be a great weapon to have in our back pocket".

I think that our pitching and defense have improved enough that it should make up for the lack of a true power threat. Especially since this lineup is still good enough for a top ten run scoring offense IMO.

But you are right. In the playoffs, there will always come a situation or two where you need a big homerun against good pitching. Hopefully it wont be the difference between winning and losing a series.

At the same time I really think the Sox will go hard after Gonzales. The way he goes the other way he would challenge 50 bombs every year in Fenway and I think both Adrian and Theo knows this. It would literally be a perfect fit.

Unfortunately, the Padres have considerable leverage in the negotiations since they ahve him under contract for 2 more seasons. It would cost us plenty but I would be willing to give up unproven talent like Casey Kelly before I would give up Bucholtz. Maybe they would take Lars Anderson, Kelly, and Bowden. Who knows but it is worth it for AG.

Gonzo would put this team over the top even though i dont think they need him to win it all.

[CbrewEra]

I didn't really see much on the Nomar thing.  Does he infact get an at bat?  Or was his retirement mearly at the podium that day?

[MBz]

I'm still worried about the offense.  I really wish we had that true power bat.  I don't think Papi will ever be that again and it helped when Manny was around too. (Not that I'd want him back at this point).  Just like last postseason, I have my question marks about whether this team can put up timely, clutch hitting when the stakes are raised and they're facing ace pitching.

The way I feel isnt exactly worried. It's more of "it would be a great weapon to have in our back pocket".

I think that our pitching and defense have improved enough that it should make up for the lack of a true power threat. Especially since this lineup is still good enough for a top ten run scoring offense IMO.

But you are right. In the playoffs, there will always come a situation or two where you need a big homerun against good pitching. Hopefully it wont be the difference between winning and losing a series.

At the same time I really think the Sox will go hard after Gonzales. The way he goes the other way he would challenge 50 bombs every year in Fenway and I think both Adrian and Theo knows this. It would literally be a perfect fit.

Unfortunately, the Padres have considerable leverage in the negotiations since they ahve him under contract for 2 more seasons. It would cost us plenty but I would be willing to give up unproven talent like Casey Kelly before I would give up Bucholtz. Maybe they would take Lars Anderson, Kelly, and Bowden. Who knows but it is worth it for AG.

Gonzo would put this team over the top even though i dont think they need him to win it all.

We're going to get to the point in the season where Clay Buchholz is to valuable to give up for Gonzalez.  I think he's going to be a big part of the team this year and that he'll be pitching well enough that we're not going to be able to just give him up.  With Dice-K still up in the air, we're going to have to keep Clay B until Dice-K shows that he has anything left in the tank.  Either way, I don't think you can trade a 26 year old pitcher with ace stuff for a first baseman.

[Greenbean]

I'm still worried about the offense.  I really wish we had that true power bat.  I don't think Papi will ever be that again and it helped when Manny was around too. (Not that I'd want him back at this point).  Just like last postseason, I have my question marks about whether this team can put up timely, clutch hitting when the stakes are raised and they're facing ace pitching.

The way I feel isnt exactly worried. It's more of "it would be a great weapon to have in our back pocket".

I think that our pitching and defense have improved enough that it should make up for the lack of a true power threat. Especially since this lineup is still good enough for a top ten run scoring offense IMO.

But you are right. In the playoffs, there will always come a situation or two where you need a big homerun against good pitching. Hopefully it wont be the difference between winning and losing a series.

At the same time I really think the Sox will go hard after Gonzales. The way he goes the other way he would challenge 50 bombs every year in Fenway and I think both Adrian and Theo knows this. It would literally be a perfect fit.

Unfortunately, the Padres have considerable leverage in the negotiations since they ahve him under contract for 2 more seasons. It would cost us plenty but I would be willing to give up unproven talent like Casey Kelly before I would give up Bucholtz. Maybe they would take Lars Anderson, Kelly, and Bowden. Who knows but it is worth it for AG.

Gonzo would put this team over the top even though i dont think they need him to win it all.

We're going to get to the point in the season where Clay Buchholz is to valuable to give up for Gonzalez.  I think he's going to be a big part of the team this year and that he'll be pitching well enough that we're not going to be able to just give him up.  With Dice-K still up in the air, we're going to have to keep Clay B until Dice-K shows that he has anything left in the tank.  Either way, I don't think you can trade a 26 year old pitcher with ace stuff for a first baseman.

That's exactly what I said. I would give up Casek Kelly before Buch. Kelly is supposedly one of the best prospects in baseball and i would give him up first. We agree.

[Chris]

We're going to get to the point in the season where Clay Buchholz is to valuable to give up for Gonzalez.  I think he's going to be a big part of the team this year and that he'll be pitching well enough that we're not going to be able to just give him up.  With Dice-K still up in the air, we're going to have to keep Clay B until Dice-K shows that he has anything left in the tank.  Either way, I don't think you can trade a 26 year old pitcher with ace stuff for a first baseman.

I understand your argument, and part of me agrees with it.  But I have two issues.

1. I am nowhere near sold on Bucholtz' makeup.  He has the "stuff", but his inconsistency, and lack of killer instinct to buckle down when things start to get rough make me see a lot more AJ Burnett in him than John Lester.  He could certainly still be great, but in my experience, the great ones usually show that killer instinct from the beginning, and are just working out the kinks in their first couple years before leaping into the upper echelon.  I have a feeling Bucholtz is going to be a very good pitcher, but may never be the consistent Ace he could be with that stuff.

2. Gonzalez is REALLY good.  We have all seen the numbers over and over again, so I won't harp on those.  He is only 27 years old (28 in May), is locked up for another year, is an excellent defender, and is one of the top 5 power hitters in the game, and has been doing it in a giant ballpark with little to no protection.  Other than Pujols, and maybe Howard, I am not sure there is another hitter in baseball that I would rather have. 

So, if it takes Bucholtz to get it done, I think I would have to pull the trigger.  I think the only thing I wouldn't do is include Buch AND Kelly.

[MBz]

I understand your argument, and part of me agrees with it.  But I have two issues.

1. I am nowhere near sold on Bucholtz' makeup.  He has the "stuff", but his inconsistency, and lack of killer instinct to buckle down when things start to get rough make me see a lot more AJ Burnett in him than John Lester.  He could certainly still be great, but in my experience, the great ones usually show that killer instinct from the beginning, and are just working out the kinks in their first couple years before leaping into the upper echelon.  I have a feeling Bucholtz is going to be a very good pitcher, but may never be the consistent Ace he could be with that stuff.

2. Gonzalez is REALLY good.  We have all seen the numbers over and over again, so I won't harp on those.  He is only 27 years old (28 in May), is locked up for another year, is an excellent defender, and is one of the top 5 power hitters in the game, and has been doing it in a giant ballpark with little to no protection.  Other than Pujols, and maybe Howard, I am not sure there is another hitter in baseball that I would rather have. 

So, if it takes Bucholtz to get it done, I think I would have to pull the trigger.  I think the only thing I wouldn't do is include Buch AND Kelly.

Yes, but remember it did take Lester 2 partial seasons before he was able to have the year he did in 08 where he was became the best pitcher on the team.  I do agree with the inconsistency somewhat with Clay B, but I'm not sure he's been around long enough to make that judgment yet.  Last year he was either lights out or he was giving up 6-7 runs, but he also hasn't pitched 100+ innings in a season yet so it's really stuff to judge his performance based on things such as ERA.  He hasn't even logged 200+ innings in his career in the majors yet.  His numbers this past season were very comparable to Lester's first two years in terms of BAA, whip and even ERA as well.  Though I'd love to have Adrian Gonzalez, I jut think it's unlikely for a lot of reasons that you said.  He's young, talented and affordable, if you're the Padres, why not try to build around him instead of trading him for prospects. 

[Shoot the J]

We're going to get to the point in the season where Clay Buchholz is to valuable to give up for Gonzalez.  I think he's going to be a big part of the team this year and that he'll be pitching well enough that we're not going to be able to just give him up.  With Dice-K still up in the air, we're going to have to keep Clay B until Dice-K shows that he has anything left in the tank.  Either way, I don't think you can trade a 26 year old pitcher with ace stuff for a first baseman.

I understand your argument, and part of me agrees with it.  But I have two issues.

1. I am nowhere near sold on Bucholtz' makeup.  He has the "stuff", but his inconsistency, and lack of killer instinct to buckle down when things start to get rough make me see a lot more AJ Burnett in him than John Lester.  He could certainly still be great, but in my experience, the great ones usually show that killer instinct from the beginning, and are just working out the kinks in their first couple years before leaping into the upper echelon.  I have a feeling Bucholtz is going to be a very good pitcher, but may never be the consistent Ace he could be with that stuff.

2. Gonzalez is REALLY good.  We have all seen the numbers over and over again, so I won't harp on those.  He is only 27 years old (28 in May), is locked up for another year, is an excellent defender, and is one of the top 5 power hitters in the game, and has been doing it in a giant ballpark with little to no protection.  Other than Pujols, and maybe Howard, I am not sure there is another hitter in baseball that I would rather have. 

So, if it takes Bucholtz to get it done, I think I would have to pull the trigger.  I think the only thing I wouldn't do is include Buch AND Kelly.

I agree. While Bucholz may very well turn out to be a solid big league pitcher, hitters like Gonzalez don't come around very often. All signs point to this guy being a monster (no pun intended) if he were to play at Fenway.

[Chris]

I understand your argument, and part of me agrees with it.  But I have two issues.

1. I am nowhere near sold on Bucholtz' makeup.  He has the "stuff", but his inconsistency, and lack of killer instinct to buckle down when things start to get rough make me see a lot more AJ Burnett in him than John Lester.  He could certainly still be great, but in my experience, the great ones usually show that killer instinct from the beginning, and are just working out the kinks in their first couple years before leaping into the upper echelon.  I have a feeling Bucholtz is going to be a very good pitcher, but may never be the consistent Ace he could be with that stuff.

2. Gonzalez is REALLY good.  We have all seen the numbers over and over again, so I won't harp on those.  He is only 27 years old (28 in May), is locked up for another year, is an excellent defender, and is one of the top 5 power hitters in the game, and has been doing it in a giant ballpark with little to no protection.  Other than Pujols, and maybe Howard, I am not sure there is another hitter in baseball that I would rather have. 

So, if it takes Bucholtz to get it done, I think I would have to pull the trigger.  I think the only thing I wouldn't do is include Buch AND Kelly.

Yes, but remember it did take Lester 2 partial seasons before he was able to have the year he did in 08 where he was became the best pitcher on the team.   

I am not sure (and frankly don't really care) how the numbers match up in Lester's and Buch's first two years.  The one thing I remember about Lester's first couple years (other than the whole Cancer thing), was that even though he had trouble with his command at times, and was very inconsistent, he had a major killer instinct.  He made a habit of letting guys on base, and then stranding them.  He did his best work when the pressure was on, and players were om scoring position.  

Buch on the other hand has not shown that tendency.  He has shown the ability to cruise and mow guys down when there is no one on, but then struggles and falls apart when teams do get on base.  

Obviously, all of this could change very quickly as he matures, but I am just saying I am not sold on him enough to let him be the reason not to trade for Gonzalez, if the rest of the package is reasonable.

  Though I'd love to have Adrian Gonzalez, I jut think it's unlikely for a lot of reasons that you said.  He's young, talented and affordable, if you're the Padres, why not try to build around him instead of trading him for prospects. 

You may be right about this part, which is why I will not get on the Sox case if they don't pull the trigger.  I do think the Padres will eventually trade Gonzalez, but I think they are going to be asking for a LOT, and given their GM's knowledge of the Sox prospects, I feel pretty confident that they are not going to make a deal with them, unless they are getting the real gems of the system.

[jasail]

RE: Buchholz

The one thing I am interested to see with Clay this season is how his 2-seamer effects his make-up.  IIRC he developed this pitch in AAA last summer and when he came up he threw it very effectively inside to RHH, which increased his gb ratio and decreased his walks. 

In 2008 before he got sent back down it seemed that when he had runners on base he would pitch backwards, demonstrating that he had little faith he could throw his 4-seamer past ML hitters.  It seemed that his 4-seamer was flat and more of a set up pitch.  Not having a fb you can rely will run up pitch counts, walks and make pitchers less effective and that will likely ruin your confidence. 

So what I am interested to see is if his 2-seamer continues to become and out pitch for him, keeping him efficient and away from pitching backwards.  If it does and he becomes an effective groundball pitcher he is Ace material.  He can get strikeouts and keep hitters off balance with is change, curve and slider (that on any day can be a wipeout pitch) and then rely on his 2-seamer in for ground balls and 4-seamer away as a set up pitch.   

[Chris]

RE: Buchholz

The one thing I am interested to see with Clay this season is how his 2-seamer effects his make-up.  IIRC he developed this pitch in AAA last summer and when he came up he threw it very effectively inside to RHH, which increased his gb ratio and decreased his walks. 

In 2008 before he got sent back down it seemed that when he had runners on base he would pitch backwards, demonstrating that he had little faith he could throw his 4-seamer past ML hitters.  It seemed that his 4-seamer was flat and more of a set up pitch.  Not having a fb you can rely will run up pitch counts, walks and make pitchers less effective and that will likely ruin your confidence. 

So what I am interested to see is if his 2-seamer continues to become and out pitch for him, keeping him efficient and away from pitching backwards.  If it does and he becomes an effective groundball pitcher he is Ace material.  He can get strikeouts and keep hitters off balance with is change, curve and slider (that on any day can be a wipeout pitch) and then rely on his 2-seamer in for ground balls and 4-seamer away as a set up pitch.   

Very good post.  I agree with all of it (even though I don't have the baseball knowledge to put it as well as you did).  He very well could have turned the corner last year because of that pitch, and that might completely erase the issues he had in the past.  I would love to see that.