Poll

How would you rate Danny's drafting of players in the draft?

Excellent, way above average,
14 (34.1%)
Above Average
23 (56.1%)
Average
4 (9.8%)
Below average
0 (0%)
Kind of stinks
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 41

Author Topic: Rating Danny in the Draft  (Read 23236 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #30 on: February 06, 2010, 01:19:26 PM »

Offline BballTim

  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23724
  • Tommy Points: 1123
To me, Danny's in the B+/B range.  I think he's had more successes than failures in regards to the draft.

Banks & Green are his two most notable disappointments in my book.  However, finding Perkins, Rondo, Jefferson, Gomes, West, Powe, Davis have to all be considered successes.  All those guys have turned out to be either competent starters or bonafide role players in this league.  That's a pretty solid list.


  I don't think that hits and misses should count equally. Maybe if your success is TA or Delonte, but not if it's Al or Rajon. If you look at the first rounder Danny's had it's like an 11 (Banks), a 15 (Al), a 18(Green), a 21 (Rondo), a 23 (Allen), a 24 (West), a 27 (Perk) and a 29 (Giddens).

   The numbers might be a little off, but would you trade (current or future) three picks from 11-18 and 5 picks in the 20s for Rondo, Perk, Al, West and Allen? Rondo himself makes up for any first round misses. Again, you can go back 20-25 years and Al and Perk are probably top 3 or so for their spots, Rondo's probably #1 and West and Allen are probably better than average. A few misses (when one miss has lasted 7 years in the league)  doesn't really cut into that success much.

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #31 on: February 06, 2010, 01:25:01 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

  • In The Rafters
  • The Natural
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33333
  • Tommy Points: 6430
  • Doc could learn a thing or two from Norman Dale
An interesting thing to consider is whether trades should be evaluated here.

Danny parlayed a #5, Delonte, and Wally's bad contract into Ray Allen and BBD.  That, to me, is good use of the #5 pick, especially since Ray helped us get KG to agree to come here.

On the other hand, Danny traded #7 (Brandon Roy, essentially) and Raef to Portland for Telfair and an expiring contract.  That one is harder to evaluate; in a vacuum, it's terrible value, but on the other hand, Theo's expiring contract allowed us to trade for KG.

Ultimately, I think Danny's trades in this area left us off better than when he started, although there's a possibility that we could have avoided giving up Gomes or a draft pick in the KG deal if we'd been able to include Roy.

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

Portland CrotoNats:  2009 CB Draft Champions

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #32 on: February 06, 2010, 01:29:08 PM »

Online Donoghus

  • Global Moderator
  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30938
  • Tommy Points: 1607
  • What a Pub Should Be
To me, Danny's in the B+/B range.  I think he's had more successes than failures in regards to the draft.

Banks & Green are his two most notable disappointments in my book.  However, finding Perkins, Rondo, Jefferson, Gomes, West, Powe, Davis have to all be considered successes.  All those guys have turned out to be either competent starters or bonafide role players in this league.  That's a pretty solid list.


  I don't think that hits and misses should count equally. Maybe if your success is TA or Delonte, but not if it's Al or Rajon. If you look at the first rounder Danny's had it's like an 11 (Banks), a 15 (Al), a 18(Green), a 21 (Rondo), a 23 (Allen), a 24 (West), a 27 (Perk) and a 29 (Giddens).

   The numbers might be a little off, but would you trade (current or future) three picks from 11-18 and 5 picks in the 20s for Rondo, Perk, Al, West and Allen? Rondo himself makes up for any first round misses. Again, you can go back 20-25 years and Al and Perk are probably top 3 or so for their spots, Rondo's probably #1 and West and Allen are probably better than average. A few misses (when one miss has lasted 7 years in the league)  doesn't really cut into that success much.

Where did I say that was valuing things equally?  My B/B+ sorta illustrates that his successes have outweighed his failures.  I think he's done a pretty solid job but I'm also not gonna sit here and give him an A.  He's still had a couple of misses.  A B+ is still a pretty darn good grade as we head into year 7 of DA.


2010 CB Historical Draft - Best Overall Team

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #33 on: February 06, 2010, 01:40:04 PM »

Offline scoop

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 663
  • Tommy Points: 74
I'll leave excellent for someone like RC Bufford or even Morey and vote the 2nd option, above average. It's still an impressive record. Rondo and Al Jefferson are historically good picks - true that in Jefferson's draft there were plenty of excellent players drafted after him but Rondo is one of the top-5 players in his draft and of those drafted after him only Millsap comes close.

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #34 on: February 06, 2010, 02:04:13 PM »

Offline More Banners

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3845
  • Tommy Points: 257
Wow.  Quite a few opinions and ideas about the draft.  Some vehement assertions...daring me to name players better than so-and-so in tones that are tough to gauge in a blog/forum format.  Interesting reading all around, though.

Some things I take from this:

I've been convinced now that Danny is above average, but still not quite excellent.  I hope future picks bump him up further (all agreed?  cool.).  I don't think Rondo and Al put him over the top, since there are obvious reasons that ON DRAFT DAY they were not the top-5 picks or whatever.  I remember watching the draft, and nobody was screaming "why is nobody picking Rajon Rondo!!!" all the way through it.  I think several teams thought about him after 10?  We bought the pick from PHX, who obviously had no need for a PG (Nash?).  Which is a point not menioned here:  sometimes, players drop because of position and fit/needs of certain teams, even though everyone says they'll take the best player available, etc.

The best argument that Danny had wild success, to me, after reading all of this, seems to be one of the least mentioned:  Gomes.  He is a decent starter, definitely a rotation player on any team, and went LATE in the 2nd round.  I underestimated the importance of this pick.  It is, by far, the best value pick he made.  He could have went 25 picks earlier, and it would still be a success.  30 picks earlier.  

BBD was a good pick, but not far out of the 1st round, so not as good value.  Maybe time will change that as/if he develops.  Powe was a good second round pick, obviously, but the knock was his injury history, which has turned out to be important.  Perhaps...perhaps we were lucky that Powe didn't get injured sooner.  I think luck may have been a factor there.  But Gomes is a standout here, an incredible value.

The other thing that I'm finding is the next best argument that Danny is better than average is the lack of busts late in the first round, though there are some other factors here.  TA/Delonte/Perk = no busts.  That's harder to do than I gave him credit for.  That they each were given both several years to develop (instead of 1-2 like current draftees get) is a factor in their success, and that they got playing time since we stunck so bad then.

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #35 on: February 06, 2010, 02:19:04 PM »

Offline More Banners

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3845
  • Tommy Points: 257
I'll leave excellent for someone like RC Bufford or even Morey and vote the 2nd option, above average. It's still an impressive record. Rondo and Al Jefferson are historically good picks - true that in Jefferson's draft there were plenty of excellent players drafted after him but Rondo is one of the top-5 players in his draft and of those drafted after him only Millsap comes close.

Looking at Rondo's draft class, there was only one PG taken ahead of him, a bust, at 19.  I think position is a big part of why he fell.

Another wild card in this type of restrospective is whether the team that drafted a player had much of a chance to develop and show their stuff on the team that picked them.  There are probably some players that may have stuck if they'd have been in different circumstances.  Just a wild card...  Would the next pick, Marcus Williams, have impressed more if he would have gotten to play next to some great talent like Rondo did?  He was a pretty good player, and I think he looked very good in some of the games I saw him play in NJ.

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #36 on: February 06, 2010, 02:20:52 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

  • In The Rafters
  • The Natural
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33333
  • Tommy Points: 6430
  • Doc could learn a thing or two from Norman Dale
I'll leave excellent for someone like RC Bufford or even Morey and vote the 2nd option, above average. It's still an impressive record. Rondo and Al Jefferson are historically good picks - true that in Jefferson's draft there were plenty of excellent players drafted after him but Rondo is one of the top-5 players in his draft and of those drafted after him only Millsap comes close.

Looking at Rondo's draft class, there was only one PG taken ahead of him, a bust, at 19.  I think position is a big part of why he fell.

Regardless of need, don't you think other teams would have taken Rondo if they had any inkling of how good Rondo was?  One thing that impresses me is that Danny was linked to Rondo from the very beginning, even when we were picking at #7. 

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

Portland CrotoNats:  2009 CB Draft Champions

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #37 on: February 06, 2010, 02:34:02 PM »

Offline More Banners

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3845
  • Tommy Points: 257
I'll leave excellent for someone like RC Bufford or even Morey and vote the 2nd option, above average. It's still an impressive record. Rondo and Al Jefferson are historically good picks - true that in Jefferson's draft there were plenty of excellent players drafted after him but Rondo is one of the top-5 players in his draft and of those drafted after him only Millsap comes close.

Looking at Rondo's draft class, there was only one PG taken ahead of him, a bust, at 19.  I think position is a big part of why he fell.

Regardless of need, don't you think other teams would have taken Rondo if they had any inkling of how good Rondo was?  One thing that impresses me is that Danny was linked to Rondo from the very beginning, even when we were picking at #7. 

Well, yes.  Isn't that always the case with the draft, though?  Would 6 GM's still pass on Michael Jordan?  Just pointing out that they always say (since Jordan) they'll take the best player available, and they still don't.  They seem to take the best player that also fills a need, and the higher the pick, the greater the needs, so it's easier to just take the best player.  I think the lack of a jumper was a bigger factor than position for his falling so far, but I don't think many teams were looking for a PG that year, either.  That's what I remember.  But at my age, memory is what it is.

That turned out to be a decent draft, though.

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #38 on: February 06, 2010, 02:42:44 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

  • In The Rafters
  • The Natural
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33333
  • Tommy Points: 6430
  • Doc could learn a thing or two from Norman Dale
I'll leave excellent for someone like RC Bufford or even Morey and vote the 2nd option, above average. It's still an impressive record. Rondo and Al Jefferson are historically good picks - true that in Jefferson's draft there were plenty of excellent players drafted after him but Rondo is one of the top-5 players in his draft and of those drafted after him only Millsap comes close.

Looking at Rondo's draft class, there was only one PG taken ahead of him, a bust, at 19.  I think position is a big part of why he fell.

Regardless of need, don't you think other teams would have taken Rondo if they had any inkling of how good Rondo was?  One thing that impresses me is that Danny was linked to Rondo from the very beginning, even when we were picking at #7. 

Well, yes.  Isn't that always the case with the draft, though?  Would 6 GM's still pass on Michael Jordan?  Just pointing out that they always say (since Jordan) they'll take the best player available, and they still don't.  They seem to take the best player that also fills a need, and the higher the pick, the greater the needs, so it's easier to just take the best player.  I think the lack of a jumper was a bigger factor than position for his falling so far, but I don't think many teams were looking for a PG that year, either.  That's what I remember.  But at my age, memory is what it is.

That turned out to be a decent draft, though.

Only two teams passed on Jordan. ;)

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

Portland CrotoNats:  2009 CB Draft Champions

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #39 on: February 06, 2010, 02:50:44 PM »

Offline More Banners

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3845
  • Tommy Points: 257
I'll leave excellent for someone like RC Bufford or even Morey and vote the 2nd option, above average. It's still an impressive record. Rondo and Al Jefferson are historically good picks - true that in Jefferson's draft there were plenty of excellent players drafted after him but Rondo is one of the top-5 players in his draft and of those drafted after him only Millsap comes close.

Looking at Rondo's draft class, there was only one PG taken ahead of him, a bust, at 19.  I think position is a big part of why he fell.

Regardless of need, don't you think other teams would have taken Rondo if they had any inkling of how good Rondo was?  One thing that impresses me is that Danny was linked to Rondo from the very beginning, even when we were picking at #7. 

Well, yes.  Isn't that always the case with the draft, though?  Would 6 GM's still pass on Michael Jordan?  Just pointing out that they always say (since Jordan) they'll take the best player available, and they still don't.  They seem to take the best player that also fills a need, and the higher the pick, the greater the needs, so it's easier to just take the best player.  I think the lack of a jumper was a bigger factor than position for his falling so far, but I don't think many teams were looking for a PG that year, either.  That's what I remember.  But at my age, memory is what it is.

That turned out to be a decent draft, though.

Only two teams passed on Jordan. ;)

Um...I knew that. :-\

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #40 on: February 06, 2010, 02:54:57 PM »

Offline xmuscularghandix

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7620
  • Tommy Points: 280
Danny is a genius with diamond in the ruff 2nd rounders, but has also gotten a couple of nice role guys in the first.

in '04 he did pick Big Al, Delonte, and TA all in the same first round. Thats pretty [dang] good if you ask me. An All-Star, a starter, and a rotation guy whos come on very well despite injuries.

Then in '05 Gerald was a bust, but i'd say that was due to attitude (which is hard to tell with an 18 year old). Then in the second round he got Gomes, who may not be starting caliber, but is definitely a very good role guy.

in '06 he traded our top pick (Foye)for Telfair/Cap space. But also, through trades, ended up with and Championship Starter and All-Star Rajon Rondo.Plus a 2nd round gem Leon Powe.

in '07 Gabe Pruitt was a bust, but he convinced Seattle to throw in 2nd round draft pick Glen Davis, who who started the Celtics and was one game away from the ECF.

IMO it's still up in the air with Billy and JR.

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #41 on: February 06, 2010, 02:56:07 PM »

Offline Cman

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13068
  • Tommy Points: 120
Regardless of need, don't you think other teams would have taken Rondo if they had any inkling of how good Rondo was?  One thing that impresses me is that Danny was linked to Rondo from the very beginning, even when we were picking at #7. 

Related to that, I believe Danny was said to have liked Durant over Oden and everyone thought he was crazy.
Celtics fan for life.

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #42 on: February 06, 2010, 02:56:38 PM »

Offline xmuscularghandix

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7620
  • Tommy Points: 280
.

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #43 on: February 06, 2010, 03:04:41 PM »

Offline More Banners

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3845
  • Tommy Points: 257
Danny is a genius with diamond in the ruff 2nd rounders, but has also gotten a couple of nice role guys in the first.

in '04 he did pick Big Al, Delonte, and TA all in the same first round. Thats pretty [dang] good if you ask me. An All-Star, a starter, and a rotation guy whos come on very well despite injuries.

Then in '05 Gerald was a bust, but i'd say that was due to attitude (which is hard to tell with an 18 year old). Then in the second round he got Gomes, who may not be starting caliber, but is definitely a very good role guy.

in '06 he traded our top pick (Foye)for Telfair/Cap space. But also, through trades, ended up with and Championship Starter and All-Star Rajon Rondo.Plus a 2nd round gem Leon Powe.

in '07 Gabe Pruitt was a bust, but he convinced Seattle to throw in 2nd round draft pick Glen Davis, who who started the Celtics and was one game away from the ECF.

IMO it's still up in the air with Billy and JR.


Just a thought:  Does Danny get credit for taking Delonte and TA, good role players, or should he get zinged for not taking Kevin Martin with either of those picks, especially since he was looking at SG's and just picked two of them?

Re: Rating Danny in the Draft
« Reply #44 on: February 06, 2010, 03:05:14 PM »

Offline BballTim

  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23724
  • Tommy Points: 1123

I've been convinced now that Danny is above average, but still not quite excellent.  I hope future picks bump him up further (all agreed?  cool.).  I don't think Rondo and Al put him over the top, since there are obvious reasons that ON DRAFT DAY they were not the top-5 picks or whatever.  I remember watching the draft, and nobody was screaming "why is nobody picking Rajon Rondo!!!" all the way through it.  I think several teams thought about him after 10?  We bought the pick from PHX, who obviously had no need for a PG (Nash?).  Which is a point not menioned here:  sometimes, players drop because of position and fit/needs of certain teams, even though everyone says they'll take the best player available, etc.


  The Knicks picked Balkman ahead of Rondo. Was that not a mistake because Balkman isn't a pg? The reason that Rondo fell was because the other GMs weren't as able to project how good he would be as Danny was. In other words, Danny's drafting ability was terrific.

  Also, you're saying that Rondo doesn't count as a great pick because the pundits didn't expect him to go high and nobody was saying he shouldn't have fallen so far. If that's the measuring stick you use then you'd have to consider Gerald Green to be one of Danny's best picks ever because people WERE saying "why is nobody picking Gerald Green?". He was projected in the top 5 and Danny got him at 18. Great draft pick, right? Much better than Rondo?

  And I was one of the people "daring me to name players better than so-and-so". But the point was that you had (have) no idea how good those picks were unless you go back and look at players that were drafted at similar positions and see how they stack up against other players drafted in similar spots. For instance, if you say Rondo should have gone outside the top 10 and someone challenges you to name a single draft ever with 10 players better than Rondo taken, I don't think that explaining why you think he fell really suffices as an argument. Did you even spend 2 minutes checking other drafts after the questions came?