Rating Danny in the Draft

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Okay...let me try to defend myself...hold your fire at least long enough for me to type...

What I consider "average" is taking players at the level of the draft that seems appropriate for their ability to be NBA players.

First round:  We would probably all agree that top 10 picks should probably end up being star players, or at least starters, last 10 first round picks are probably role players and/or projects, and the middle ten could go either way, but should probably make it in the league, barring injury, in some capacity (including end of bench roster fodder).

The picks (not including those still on rookie contracts; it's too early to call those either way):

Top 10:  none (made good trade use of #5 for Ray)
Middle 10:

Marcus Banks, 11, Bust.  Worst Celt #11 since Moiso, likely out of the league as soon as the contract McHale gave him is up.

Al Jefferson, 15, good pick.  Not a franchise guy/all star yet, but a good player, and potential future all star.  Seems appropriate for draft position.

Gerald Green, 18, out of the league.  Total bust.

(so far, looks below average to me)

Last 10 1st round(likely role players and projects):

Delonte West, 24, good role/bench player.

Tony Allen, 25, good role/bench player.

Rajon Rondo, 21, good value here, even if he's still working on that 15 foot wide open jumper (sarcasm there-but there is some truth to it, and it's why he fell to 21.  He probably looks better/developed better because of such good shooters elsewhere on the floor)

Perkins, 27, good role player.  Keep in mind that the Perk we see today is much different than the fat 6'10" kid that Danny drafted. It took him years to develop into a competent role player, and more to start on a contender.

(I think others probably give Danny more credit than I do for the role players here.  Perk, TA, and Delonte were appropriate for draft position.  Rondo was slightly above, somewhere between superstar and role player, which is what we expect for the 11-20th pick, but he was not far out of there at 21)

(Depending how much credit one gives for Rondo, and takes away for Banks/G.Green, we improve Danny's grade to either slightly below average to average)

Second Round:

I would hope that players picked would make it in the league, somewhere, even in a towel-waving role.  Solid rotation players are a plus, out of the league altogether after the rookie deal is a minus.

Brandon Hunter, 56, out of the league.
Justin Reed, 40, out of the league.
Ryan Gomes, 50, good role player/rotation player.
Oriene Green, 53, out of the league.
Leon Powe, 49, good role player/rotation player.
Gabe Pruitt, 32, out of the league.
Glen Davis, 35, role player/rotation player.

(4 out of 7 picks are out of the league.  2 fell in the draft because of health/injury issues, one of which Danny didn't pick up the option on due to his being injured.  Still, this is above average, but not outstanding, at this level of the draft, moving Danny's overall grade to...average.)

Intangibles and observations: 

I think it's a bit odd that Danny's mid-first round picks seem about as likely to stick in the league as his second rounders.

I credit Danny for taking a chance on injured college players.  People need a chance.  Those were, by far, his best second round picks, but they fall short of being "steals".

His late first round selections seem better than they are/were because of Perk's development from fat kid to solid starting player.

I think the above makes it pretty clear that he has as many misses as hits, and that the picks are usually appropriate for draft position, with the one exception of Rondo, who should have gone in the middle instead of the last third of the draft (11-20 instead of 21).

What do you think?  Vote.

[jambr380]

I think he has had his ups and downs, but overall he's been about average. I don't give him too much credit for Big Al because he was the obvious choice, but I don't blame him too much for Gerald for the same reason. His 'highlights' seem to be Rondo, Perk, and Gomes- only one of his picks has 'superstar' potential (in Rondo). I am satisfied in his drafting, but not ecstatic or anything.

[BASS_THUMPER]

lol lol....haha..

he started with "hold ya fire"...

[jdpapa3]

Al Jefferson, 15, good pick.  Not a franchise guy/all star yet, but a good player, and potential future all star.  Seems appropriate for draft position.

Rajon Rondo, 21, good value here, even if he's still working on that 15 foot wide open jumper (sarcasm there-but there is some truth to it, and it's why he fell to 21.  He probably looks better/developed better because of such good shooters elsewhere on the floor)

Not giving enough credit here. Your expectations are not congruent with reality.

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Al Jefferson, 15, good pick.  Not a franchise guy/all star yet, but a good player, and potential future all star.  Seems appropriate for draft position.

Rajon Rondo, 21, good value here, even if he's still working on that 15 foot wide open jumper (sarcasm there-but there is some truth to it, and it's why he fell to 21.  He probably looks better/developed better because of such good shooters elsewhere on the floor)

Not giving enough credit here. Your expectations are not congruent with reality.

Good point.  The draft is about expectations.  I stated mine early in the OP, and gave my take on the players based on that.

What do you expect at each level of the draft?  Or do you rate the players that much higher?

[Roy Hobbs]

Al Jefferson, 15, good pick.  Not a franchise guy/all star yet, but a good player, and potential future all star.  Seems appropriate for draft position.

Rajon Rondo, 21, good value here, even if he's still working on that 15 foot wide open jumper (sarcasm there-but there is some truth to it, and it's why he fell to 21.  He probably looks better/developed better because of such good shooters elsewhere on the floor)

Not giving enough credit here. Your expectations are not congruent with reality.

Agreed.

Danny has made exactly one lottery pick, and yet has ended up with an all-star point guard, an elite young big man, and a center who started on a championship team (and who plays elite defense on most nights).

In the second round, he's landed solid role players like Gomes, BBD, and Powe.

In the first round, he's only missed three times, on Banks, Gerald, and Giddens.  Only Banks can really be considered a bust, relative to draft position.

I think the thought that all second rounders should make it is out of touch with reality.  Can anybody think of a GM who has seen all of his second round picks become regulars in the NBA, even if at the end of the bench?  The fact that Danny has landed three rotation players out of seven second rounders (only two of which were before #40 overall) is a good track record, in my mind.

[jr_3421]

You are vastly overrated the draft and taking it out of context. Every draft is different as so are the expectations. For example the 2006 draft was a very weak draft. A lot of the 1st round picks would be second rounders in any other draft. And for Danny to come out with the second/third best player with the 21st pick? That in itself is an indication of a good gm. The same goes for Big Al. A player drafted in his position should not be expected to be a  future perennial all star (which I'm assuming he will one day be. And blaming Danny for Gerald is not fair in that before the draft he was a consensus top ten pick that fell. Danny has made his mark on the draft by consistently selecting good talent when there is not a lot out there (the 2nd round, the entire 2006 draft). This I think is the mark of an at least above average gm.

[jdpapa3]

Just for fun: let's look at all of the other all stars.

KG: 5th pick
Iverson: 1st
Dwight: 1st
Lebron: 1st
Wade: 5th
Pierce: 10th
JJ: 11th or so
Horford: 3rd
Rose: 1st
Bosh: 4th
Gerald Wallace: 25th

Nash: 15th
Kobe: 13th
Duncan: 1st
Melo: 3rd
Amare: 9th
Dirk: 9th
Roy: 6th
CP3: 4th
Zach: 19th
Pau: 3rd
Deron: 3rd

So there is one guy there drafted after Rondo that just happens to be a Juco guy that no one heard of. Also, there is one guy even in Rondo's vicinity and that is sort of a freak all star appearance.

So getting an All Star at 21 is incredible. I also thought Jefferson was worthy last year.

[PosImpos]

The only time a GM should get a negative for picking a guy who is out of the league quickly is when he picks in the lottery.  Outside of the lottery, it shouldn't be considered guaranteed that a good pick will turn out to be even a bench player, let alone a rotation guy or a starter.

[Fan from VT]

Gotta agree with most of the criticism here. Danny is by no means a perfect, or even the best, drafter, but i think he's above average with the picks given him.


I think your premise is flawed. It appears by your expectations there'd be about 70 current all-stars and like another 150 starters with another 200-300 solid role players.  I don't think that's possible.

[jdpapa3]

Another thing: he was hired in May of 2003 before the Banks/Perkins selections. I think this might halfway excuse him for the Banks selection. Most gm's (the good ones) are scouting college (or hs at that time)games year round and Ainge wasn't afforded this luxury. The Perkins selection makes up for the Banks one in my mind.

Sorry to sound like an Ainge lover, but when people go after his drafting, that strikes a nerve.

[Roy Hobbs]

Looking at the individual drafts:

2003 -- ended up with a top-15 player in the draft at selection #28; missed completely on Banks, although he's stuck around the league for seven years, earning a big contract for another team in the process.  Brandon Hunter, picked with the second to last pick in the draft, played in 67 games.

2004 -- ended up with a top-7 player in the draft at selection #15, and two players in the 15-20 range at #24 and #25.  Only one player picked after Justin Reed played more games in the NBA than he did.

2005 -- Gerald Green was a disappointment, but was a gamble from the beginning.  This is a miss, but an excusable one.  Ryan Gomes has played more games than any second rounder taken that year (despite being picked #50), and Orien Greene managed 128 NBA games (11th among second rounders drafted that year, despite being the 23rd pick of the second round.

2006 -- ended up with a top-3 player in the draft at pick #21.  At #49, Powe has played in more games than any player drafted after him.

2007 -- Among players available when BBD was drafted, only Marc Gasol is clearly better, with Ramon Sessions also arguably better.  Pruitt stunk, but only five second rounders taken after him played in more games.

2008 -- J.R. Giddens was a mistake, but only a handful of guys taken after him have proven to be contributors.  Bill Walker hasn't been great, but only two players selected after him have played more games.

2009 -- Lester Hudson has shown more than most expected, playing more than any other pick selected after #53.

In other words, it's easy to poo poo Danny by saying that all second rounders should be contributors, or suggesting that it's easy for guys selected between #11 and #20 to become all-stars, but the fact is that this doesn't seem to fit with reality.

[Eja117]

On some level you have to consider some of the players that were available and what he got.

You probably have to give him credit for pulling L Hudson out of the draft where he did. A big Euro that never makes it (Ehrden) is about the best you can do where he picked that guy.

Yes Banks was a bust, but nearly everyone picks a bust at some point.

B Hunter got some minutes. The guys after him were Xue Yuyang 7-0 225 PF/C (China) and Andreas Glyniadakis, so he did pretty good there.

Personally I think we may have gotten very very lucky that R Swift didn't drop to 15th in that draft. And mayyybe that Telfair got picked before there too, although seeing as how he had just picked Banks the year before it was unlikely they would pick him again.

Delonte was a great pick. So was T Allen, and it would probably look way better had it not been for a freak injury on a meaningless dunk.

Justin Reed was a bad pick considering Trevor Ariza was picked two picks after and Duhon (who was traded that night) was picked two picks earlier

Gerald Green was being talked about as a top 3 pick so to get him at 18 was very good, but it is disappointing considering multiple good players were picked after him. Jarret Jack, David Lee, Nate Robinson.  

Oriene Green had several players picked after him and the only one that did anything was Amir Johnson.

Rondo was like the steal of the century.

Leon Powe was another steal. Not a single player picked after him did almost anything. Think of it this way. Ryan Hollins was picked after him.

Ryan Gomes was a great pick. he got very lucky that he fell that far. The player picked right before him was Andray Blatche that took much longer to develop and probably still isn't as good.

Gabe Pruitt and Glen Davis are a little frustrating because Marc Gasol and Ramon Sessions were still on the board and C Landry was picked one pick ahead of them, but both Pruitt and Glen had some first round buzz and neither cost much and Glen has helped.

Giddens is definitely disappointing considering C Douglas Roberts, DeAndre Jordan, Kyle Weaver, and Mario Chalmers were all on the board and that year he traded for Walker who has done nothing.

But they're cheap and short term mistakes.

So basically Danny has one phenomenal pick, one bust, a few very good picks, and just not that many mistakes and he gets lucky.  That's pretty good.
Having a guy that doesn't make mistakes (except Marcus Banks) is pretty good.

But the original poster is somewhat right that at some point you don't just get a free pass because you were picking late in the first or something. At some point you have to come up with something and we need to at this point.

L Hudson,
Bill Walker,
JR Giddens
G Pruitt
Ehrden



We're kind of on a bad streak right now and we really need to get out of it soon and get a contributor. We need another Gomes or Powe or Glen or something in the 2nd and another D West or something in the 1rst.  DA doesn't have to hit a home run this time but he has to get something solid.

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Danny has made exactly one lottery pick, and yet has ended up with an all-star point guard, an elite young big man, and a center who started on a championship team (and who plays elite defense on most nights).

In the first round, he's only missed three times, on Banks, Gerald, and Giddens.  Only Banks can really be considered a bust, relative to draft position.

I think the thought that all second rounders should make it is out of touch with reality.  Can anybody think of a GM who has seen all of his second round picks become regulars in the NBA, even if at the end of the bench?  The fact that Danny has landed three rotation players out of seven second rounders (only two of which were before #40 overall) is a good track record, in my mind.

Thanks, Roy, for that bit you added at the end.  Unlike many assessments of players, I actually included the standard I picked to judge by.  I find it one of the more frustrating aspects of posting here that some just throw stones.

Some good stuff being posted here, though.  I was hoping to get beyond "danny's great" or "danny is not so great", and it seems to be happening.  I'm enjoying the reading...some good ideas I hadn't considered.  Can't ask for much more than that.

If we expect absolutely nothing out of the second round, which some suggest, then he's great.  If some servicable players should come out of that, how many out of 7?  One seems low, two is okay, three is above average, which is where I rated him for that part.

Some good points about draft strategy.  Drafting based on star potential is more boom-or-bust than the approach I described in the OP.  The standard changes; it's not a huge loss that players are out of the league, but you should expect some star/franchise players too, I think.  (Are Rondo and Big Al franchise players?--jury still out, IMHO, but neither got franchise player money...) 

It also assumes that shooting for stars with later picks is a better strategy that the one in the OP...though many have posted that it is very, very hard to do.  This only proves Danny to be a risky drafter, not necessarily a good one, and it hinges on whether Rondo and Al are franchise players (see above).

I don't think drafting Perk at 27 is some wild draft success.  Developing that fat kid they picked into the player he is now is different than drafting.  Most seem to confound the two when talking about Perk, IMHO.

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Gotta agree with most of the criticism here. Danny is by no means a perfect, or even the best, drafter, but i think he's above average with the picks given him.


I think your premise is flawed. It appears by your expectations there'd be about 70 current all-stars and like another 150 starters with another 200-300 solid role players.  I don't think that's possible.

Dude, there really are 150 starters in the NBA.  30 teams...5 guys...  Add in another 4 rotation guys, or 5 given injury replacements, and there are 300 players getting time in the league.  The minimum roster is 13, but let's say the average roster is 14, so that's another 120 players, for an estimated...wait for it...420 players in the league.

I would say there are quite a few borderline all-stars, given how many "should" make it and don't every year, and how many only miss due to injury early in the season or whatever.  I don't really distinguish by who actually makes the team.