Author Topic: Clutch Kevin Garnett  (Read 5041 times)

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Clutch Kevin Garnett
« on: December 18, 2009, 11:09:16 AM »

Offline drza44

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Bent wrote an article today about KG's performance in crunchtime lately (http://www.celticsblog.com/2009/12/18/1205898/kg-klutch-guy#storyjump), which was great because I had planned to do something similar today.  The thing is, though, I don't think he went quite far enough.  Garnett's clutchness for this team isn't a new phenomenon...it's been that way for years now. 

I went back through 82games.com's clutch scoring stats (last 5 minutes of 4th or OT, game within 5 points) for each of Pierce, Allen, and KG since 2007-08.  Over those 2.3 seasons thus far, here are how the Celtics score late in games:

Pierce: 29.3 points/48 minutes on 36% shooting from field (30% of shots assisted)
Allen: 24.2 points/48 minutes on 44.4% shooting from field (64% of shots assisted)
Garnett: 23.5 points/48 minutes of 53% shooting from field (59% of shots assisted)

There are lots of stats there that I didn't cover here (like rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, TOs, etc) but just from what I posted above it is very clear that late in games KG is right there with Pierce and Allen providing the clutch scoring. 

And in their one mutual playoff run in 2007-08, here are how those clutch stats broke down:

Pierce: 25.7 points/48 min on 7% shooting (he made lots of free throws), 0% of shots assisted
Allen: 19 points/48 min on 33% shooting, 80% of shots assisted
KG: 22.8 points/48 min on 43% shooting, 44% of shots assisted

So in the playoffs, KG was also right there hitting clutch shots late for the Celtics.

People always (rightly) point out how great Pierce and Allen are in the clutch, but it is high time that we notice that they aren't overcompensating for KG's lacks there...on the contrary, KG has been every bit as clutch as Pierce and Allen late in games.  They all have different offensive roles (Pierce attacks more off dribble, KG off the ball either posting or in pick/roll, Allen off the ball as shooter) but they each perform their roles at very high levels late.  That is one of the things that makes these C's so dangerous down the stretch of close games, that they have 3 ultra scoring options late that all can and will make the big play. 

Re: Clutch Kevin Garnett
« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2009, 11:34:47 AM »

Offline PierceMVP08

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I'd be curious to learn how many of KG's buckets were set up by a player like PP or Rondo.  A layup or dunk in the final minutes are not truly what I would define as clutch.  I'd like to see more of the other stats as I feel scoring doesn't tell the full story.  I feel like Paul making a pass on a dunk is more clutch than the dunk itself.  Also,  Let's be clear about whether we're talking about offensive clutchness or more, because I would say KG is huge on the defensive end.  However,  Unless KG is getting set up for an open midrange shot, a lay up or a dunk, I don't really want the ball in his hand in the closing minutes of a close game.  My money will always be on Paul and then Allen (seeing him trying to creat off the dribble makes me nervous, but his ability to make shots is unquestionable.)

Re: Clutch Kevin Garnett
« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2009, 11:43:09 AM »

Offline xmuscularghandix

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I'd be curious to learn how many of KG's buckets were set up by a player like PP or Rondo.

That's mostly what the assisted% is, you can see that PP is creating his own shot much more. Where KG and Ray are catching off picks and screens.

Re: Clutch Kevin Garnett
« Reply #3 on: December 18, 2009, 11:55:46 AM »

Offline PierceMVP08

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I'd be curious to learn how many of KG's buckets were set up by a player like PP or Rondo.

That's mostly what the assisted% is, you can see that PP is creating his own shot much more. Where KG and Ray are catching off picks and screens.

Oh ok, thanks for the info.  Knowing that, I am surprised to see that his assisted on is as low as it is (KG).

Re: Clutch Kevin Garnett
« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2009, 12:01:33 PM »

Offline drza44

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I'd be curious to learn how many of KG's buckets were set up by a player like PP or Rondo.  A layup or dunk in the final minutes are not truly what I would define as clutch.  I'd like to see more of the other stats as I feel scoring doesn't tell the full story.  I feel like Paul making a pass on a dunk is more clutch than the dunk itself.  Also,  Let's be clear about whether we're talking about offensive clutchness or more, because I would say KG is huge on the defensive end.  However,  Unless KG is getting set up for an open midrange shot, a lay up or a dunk, I don't really want the ball in his hand in the closing minutes of a close game.  My money will always be on Paul and then Allen (seeing him trying to creat off the dribble makes me nervous, but his ability to make shots is unquestionable.)

I'd respond to this in 3 ways.

1) Regardless of the pass, hitting the shot is a huge part of being clutch.  In fact, the irony of this criticism for KG is that the whole "unclutch" myth about him stemmed from him completely setting up a teammate for a wide-open 10-foot jumper and them missing it in the 2001 playoffs.  No matter how brilliant the set-up, if the shooter doesn't convert then it's not worth anything.  Besides, "clutch" isn't mutually exclusive...if Pierce makes a good set-up play and KG makes the shot then they BOTH were great in the clutch.

2) KG's clutch shots don't tend to be layups/dunks created by anyone.  He hits his share of assisted jumpers, but I don't think any objective person would argue that the ability to hit jumpers in crucial situations is not a clutch skill.

3) KG's biggest offensive plays in crunchtime in the playoffs were not set up by anyone.  His game-winning score against Cleveland came off the dribble-drive.  His big dunk to end the Lakers in Game 1 of the Finals came off of his own rebound.  His 2 free throws with 3 seconds left to seal Pistons Game 5 were all him as well.  His big shot late in the Game 4 comeback against the Lakers was also a dribble-drive. 

Again, this isn't a mutually exclusive "who is the ONLY clutch guy on the Celtics" question.  Pierce and Allen are no-doubt great crunchtime performers.  The point is, KG is ALSO a no-doubt big-time performer in crunch time and it's time that more people, especially Celtics fans, realized that.

Re: Clutch Kevin Garnett
« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2009, 12:35:46 PM »

Offline Bent

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Great job with this.  I'm sure we can agree that if there was anyone left that still believed KG has not been a clutch performer, then the recent pattern of clutch shots in close games should change their mind.

Long may it continue.

Re: Clutch Kevin Garnett
« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2009, 01:08:21 PM »

Offline PierceMVP08

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I'd be curious to learn how many of KG's buckets were set up by a player like PP or Rondo.  A layup or dunk in the final minutes are not truly what I would define as clutch.  I'd like to see more of the other stats as I feel scoring doesn't tell the full story.  I feel like Paul making a pass on a dunk is more clutch than the dunk itself.  Also,  Let's be clear about whether we're talking about offensive clutchness or more, because I would say KG is huge on the defensive end.  However,  Unless KG is getting set up for an open midrange shot, a lay up or a dunk, I don't really want the ball in his hand in the closing minutes of a close game.  My money will always be on Paul and then Allen (seeing him trying to creat off the dribble makes me nervous, but his ability to make shots is unquestionable.)

I'd respond to this in 3 ways.

1) Regardless of the pass, hitting the shot is a huge part of being clutch.  In fact, the irony of this criticism for KG is that the whole "unclutch" myth about him stemmed from him completely setting up a teammate for a wide-open 10-foot jumper and them missing it in the 2001 playoffs.  No matter how brilliant the set-up, if the shooter doesn't convert then it's not worth anything.  Besides, "clutch" isn't mutually exclusive...if Pierce makes a good set-up play and KG makes the shot then they BOTH were great in the clutch.

2) KG's clutch shots don't tend to be layups/dunks created by anyone.  He hits his share of assisted jumpers, but I don't think any objective person would argue that the ability to hit jumpers in crucial situations is not a clutch skill.

3) KG's biggest offensive plays in crunchtime in the playoffs were not set up by anyone.  His game-winning score against Cleveland came off the dribble-drive.  His big dunk to end the Lakers in Game 1 of the Finals came off of his own rebound.  His 2 free throws with 3 seconds left to seal Pistons Game 5 were all him as well.  His big shot late in the Game 4 comeback against the Lakers was also a dribble-drive. 

Again, this isn't a mutually exclusive "who is the ONLY clutch guy on the Celtics" question.  Pierce and Allen are no-doubt great crunchtime performers.  The point is, KG is ALSO a no-doubt big-time performer in crunch time and it's time that more people, especially Celtics fans, realized that.


I would respond like this:

1)obviously making the shot is clutch.  I did not say it was not.  However, lay ups and dunks off someone else's penetration does not a clutch player make.  That is why I specifically refrenced them.  That is why I said I'd be curious to find that info out.

2)I never argued that that is not a clutch skill.  I would argue to the degree that he actually makes those jumpers or when he takes them.  I am tired of the unselfish star argument for why he sometimes passes up open jumpers or refuses to go into the post when we need a bucket.  He has a very reliable shot for most of the game.  Shoot it and hit when it counts!

3)  Sure we can point out to clutch plays just about anybody has ever made.  We could also count the many times he has not been clutch. Or the times he's played hot potato with a ball during the closing minutes of a crucial game.  I'm not arguing that he has never made a clutch play.  He is just not the guy I want with the ball when I have Paul and Allen.  He wasn't clutch in Minnesota and now he is the at best the third clutch guy on the team.  So why all this talk about KG being clutch?  Seems kind of irrelevant, lol

4)  Obviously he is not a no-doubt clutch performer or else no one would be having this conversation.  Simply saying that he is does not make it true.

Re: Clutch Kevin Garnett
« Reply #7 on: December 18, 2009, 01:26:46 PM »

Offline 4THQTR

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The only reason why KG isn't being recognised as a clutch player is because he doesn't force up any bad shots...

Look at the guys who are being viewed as crunchtime heroes: they all have a history of dominating the ball and take a lot of shots, including many bad looks... (maybe exclude guys like ray allen from this, because they usually take a shot that results from a well drawn-up play and of higher quality...)

Also: him "just hitting shots" and not creating is a weird argument as for example ray allen who might just be "mr. clutch" is usually "just knocking down a shot coming off a screen" or "just hitting clutch freethrows"...
Should we call the screener clutch for making it possible?
Or the guy who inbounds it to ray so ray can shoot the freebies?

KG may not be the epitome of clutchness but all the stuff about him disappearing in crunchtime holds no water...

Re: Clutch Kevin Garnett
« Reply #8 on: December 18, 2009, 01:39:55 PM »

Offline PierceMVP08

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The only reason why KG isn't being recognised as a clutch player is because he doesn't force up any bad shots...

You honestly think that is the ONLY reason?  What about playing hot potato with the ball in late game situation?  A big part of being clutch is accepting the responsibility of putting the game on yourself.  Anyone can handle the hero but not many guys are willing to accept being the goat. 

Also: him "just hitting shots" and not creating is a weird argument as for example ray allen who might just be "mr. clutch" is usually "just knocking down a shot coming off a screen" or "just hitting clutch freethrows"...

Again, I'm not arguing that hitting a jumper is not clutch.  It clearly is.  However, a dunk or lay up after Pierce or Rondo broke down the defense is more of a clutch play from the creator than the finisher. 

Should we call the screener clutch for making it possible?
Or the guy who inbounds it to ray so ray can shoot the freebies?

Again changing the argument to discredit the arguments being made.  This is a tactic my gf frequently uses.  Again as above, the person who creates an easy shot (i.e. layup or dunk) is the clutch performer on a play.  Ray hitting a three point bomb or a free throw is clearly a clutch play.

KG may not be the epitome of clutchness but all the stuff about him disappearing in crunchtime holds no water...

Again, simply saying that it is not debateable is probably the weakest argument there is

Re: Clutch Kevin Garnett
« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2009, 01:44:12 PM »

Offline drza44

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1)obviously making the shot is clutch.  I did not say it was not.  However, lay ups and dunks off someone else's penetration does not a clutch player make.  That is why I specifically refrenced them.  That is why I said I'd be curious to find that info out.

Again, the vast majority of his crunch time shots are not layups and dunks off someone else's penetration.  I answered that anecdotally before, but if you want the specific info it is found on the 82games pages that I referenced.  The majority of his clutch shots are jumpers (70 - 80%), about 15 - 20 % of his shots are "close shots" (of which less than half have been assisted), and only about 5% of his crunchtime shots have been dunks.

2)I never argued that that is not a clutch skill.  I would argue to the degree that he actually makes those jumpers or when he takes them.  I am tired of the unselfish star argument for why he sometimes passes up open jumpers or refuses to go into the post when we need a bucket.  He has a very reliable shot for most of the game.  Shoot it and hit when it counts!

Again, the facts don't support your assertion.  As I pointed out in the OP, KG is averaging 24 points/48 minutes of crunchtime on 53% shooting from the field in his time with the Celtics.  In other words, in crunchtime he is scoring more points at a similar efficiency as he shoots for most of the game.  I think that qualifies as shooting and hitting it when it counts!

3)  Sure we can point out to clutch plays just about anybody has ever made.  We could also count the many times he has not been clutch. Or the times he's played hot potato with a ball during the closing minutes of a crucial game.  I'm not arguing that he has never made a clutch play.  He is just not the guy I want with the ball when I have Paul and Allen.  He wasn't clutch in Minnesota and now he is the at best the third clutch guy on the team.  So why all this talk about KG being clutch?  Seems kind of irrelevant, lol

Again, you're making assertions without anything to back it up.  KG was, in fact, clutch in Minnesota.  From 2002-2009 (the period that 82games.com has been keeping clutch stats) Tim Duncan averaged roughly 30 points/48 minutes on 47% field goal shooting in crunch time.  Over that same time period KG averaged roughly 29 points on 48% shooting in crunch time.  This phenomenon also holds true when looking at their playoff clutch stats, as well, though the smaller sample size makes the numbers less useful.

The point is, KG has been a great producer in crunchtime for a long time.  It's not just anecdotal evidence that you can try to pick for anyone (though very few players have matched KG's late-game performance this decade, and all that have are considered elite players)...the facts most definitely support that KG has been a very good clutch producer for years.

4)  Obviously he is not a no-doubt clutch performer or else no one would be having this conversation.  Simply saying that he is does not make it true.

That is essentially the point of this topic.  We are having this conversation because he HAS been performing in the clutch for a long time but very few people seem to have noticed it.  It's not simply saying it...there are reams of facts that back up the assertion, and when that is the case then it's time for folks to re-evaluate what they "know". 

Re: Clutch Kevin Garnett
« Reply #10 on: December 18, 2009, 02:01:18 PM »

Offline PierceMVP08

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 Ahh, just had a long respone written but it didn't post and got lost.  Don't have time to rewrite.  Already behind on work as it is.  Ahh! gotta love CB, huh? ;D

Re: Clutch Kevin Garnett
« Reply #11 on: December 18, 2009, 02:13:26 PM »

Offline 4THQTR

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KG may not be the epitome of clutchness but all the stuff about him disappearing in crunchtime holds no water...

Again, simply saying that it is not debateable is probably the weakest argument there is


Agree with that, but look at all the stats numerous people have already posted here and on the front page. I think that is enough evidence to make you question wether this whole thing may not have been blown out of proportions by specific incidents and very selective media coverage...

As i said KG isn't exactly the go-to guy in the clutch, but he's a much better crunch-time performer than people give him credit for.

And because he always encourages team-offense rather than desperate isolation plays (in minny as well) it's easy to overlook many of the things he does in crunch-time...

Re: Clutch Kevin Garnett
« Reply #12 on: December 18, 2009, 02:28:58 PM »

Offline Reggie's Ghost

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The stats provided here are useful in their own right, but obviously they don't tell the whole story.  KG has proven he's ready and willing to knock down the open jumper when the game's on the line, and I'd take that as an excellent option down the stretch.

But there are a handful of players in the league who are BETTER when the game is on the line, and who relish the moment when they can win it all for their team.  You just can't have a contender without one of these.  Ray and Paul are two excellent examples of this.  When Ray or Paul have the ball in the waning moments of a one possession game, you just KNOW it's going in, and you can see it in their eyes that they are GOING to score, period.  KG seems to be more willing to defer to his teammates if he feels they have a better look, not a knock on him but I'm not putting him in the company of the better end of game finishers in the NBA...