Remember who really believed when the stories change

[EJPLAYA]

sorry man. That's just too long for anyone to want to read. Try it again with a few key bullet points!

[drza44]

Bringing it forward into the 2011 season...I don't think the window is closed at all.  In fact, about a year after I first started the thread...I'm again confident that the Cs again have a team that could win 70 games and should win the title.  Now I learned from last year that the vets might not think it worth it to go for that many regular season wins...but who knows, they just might.  This year they saw how not having HCA in game 7 against the Lakers likely cost them the ring.  This year they know they'll have to face the Super Friends in Miami, and likely would prefer to do that with HCA.  So maybe they push themselves a bit more this time around, and if so 70 is still in reach.

So, what are my 2011 expectations predicated upon?

1) Garnett's health.  The KG that ended the 2010 playoffs was about a C+ version of what we saw in 2008...but was an A++ version of what we saw from January to April.  They told us in the spring (well after the fact) that his surgery was always supposed to take a year to recover from.  OK, fine.  If that's true, then what we saw in the 2010 postseason should be the floor for 2011 KG.  If that is true, and we get that version of KG or better all season, then this team is off to a great start.

2) The Big men. With the additions of the O'Neals, the Celtics have the pieces to dominate a lot of games on the interior.  They should have the size to more-than-neutralize the Lakers' team strongpoint, they should have the size to exploit the heck out of the Heat frontcourt (think 2010 playoffs against Cleveland), and they should be able to overwhelm Orlando.  Age and health are obviously critical components.  But if they get to April - June remotely healthy, this team should win with their bigs.

3) Rondo.  Rondo proved last season that he is a force in the NBA.  I don't think I'm quite as high on him as some, as I don't think he really has best guard in league potential nor that he can carry a team to a title.  The good news is that he doesn't have to be that.  He absolutely cannot be kept out of the lane, and with the bigs we have even the Lakers/Magic dominant defensive bigs shouldn't be able to sag onto him and prevent him from finishing/creating at will.  He should have a big year.

4) Pierce and Allen. They have been the biggest constant on the team for the past 3 years, and I don't see any reason for them to fall off this year.  When a wing unit the caliber of Pierce/Allen can be arguably the 3rd most important unit on the squad (behind the bigs and the point guard), you are looking at a team with huge potential.  And they, too, should see a benefit in their efficiency and number of open looks as teams have to scheme for another offensive player that can score (either O'Neal).

5) The bench. Having Nate Robinson fully acclimated as the back-up lead guard is huge.  Having at least one O'Neal and eventually 2 out of Shaq/Jermaine/Perk off the bench is huge.  Even our back-up wings, which are now likely considered the weakness of the team, should be very capable of filling their roles.

This team looks good.  So, let me put my 2011 story out there now: the Boston Celtics still look like the best team int he league, as long as injuries don't cripple them.  That's a valid concern at their age...but even so, I like them to win the title this year.  I think #18 is a reality.  I think by this time next year all of the Van Gundys and pundits of the world that are currently all over the Heat will be talking about how obvious it was that the Celtics would be great.  I think the same guys now that think Shaq will be outplayed by Darko will be saying that they knew he would be a difference-maker playing next to Garnett.  In short, I think a lot of stories will change.  But I don't think mine will.

Links to my 2010 blogs/articles and kicking it off for 2011:

September 2009: http://www.celticsblog.com/2009/9/28/1058584/reports-of-our-demise-have-been

January 2010: http://www.celticsblog.com/2010/1/19/1260804/remember-who-we-are

February 2010: http://www.celticsblog.com/2010/2/26/1327792/3-phases-of-kgs-recovery-and

March 2010: http://www.celticsblog.com/2010/3/8/1362216/sanity-check-the-elephant-s-in-the

April 2010 1st round: http://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/Playoff-Thoughts-The-Celtics-BBD1911.htm

April 2010 2nd round: http://www.celticsblog.com/2010/4/30/1452306/where-are-we-right-now-and-what

May 2010 ECF: http://www.celticsblog.com/2010/5/16/1474165/where-are-we-now-part-2-why-the

June 2010 Finals Preview: http://www.celticsblog.com/2010/6/3/1499575/where-we-are-now-and-why-18-is-a

August 2010 1st look at next season: http://www.celticsblog.com/2010/8/11/1617553/shaq-and-garnett-ill-be-the-one-to

[drza44]

sorry man. That's just too long for anyone to want to read. Try it again with a few key bullet points!

LOL.  I put it out there for posterity and accountability sake.  If nobody chooses to read it, at least I'll know that it's all out there in case anyone ever wants to call me on it.

Besides, if anyone does actually slog through that whole thing they'll be able to, in the words of the immortal 50 Cent, look back one day "and say a genius wrote it"...

 

[EJPLAYA]

sorry man. That's just too long for anyone to want to read. Try it again with a few key bullet points!

LOL.  I put it out there for posterity and accountability sake.  If nobody chooses to read it, at least I'll know that it's all out there in case anyone ever wants to call me on it.

Besides, if anyone does actually slog through that whole thing they'll be able to, in the words of the immortal 50 Cent, look back one day "and say a genius wrote it"...

 

TP to you. That ALMOST makes me want to go back and read the whole thing. I'm betting there are some pearls of wisdom in there...

[Tai]

sorry man. That's just too long for anyone to want to read. Try it again with a few key bullet points!

I read it and liked it.

Just curious, but did you go to college? Cause if you did, you probably had reading assignments (and I mean like a chapter of a book, not the entire book) much longer than that.

[drza44]

A few random predictions as camp approaches, just getting them on the record in preparation for the new season.

1) Celtics will win at least 62 games this year. I want to put that number higher, but after winning only 50 last year I don't have to set the bar that high to be making a "bold" prediction.  Last year's team seemed to believe that health was more important than HCA...and they were probably right.  But with the LA loss in game 7 on top of the media wave from Miami and the increased depth, I expect this year's bunch is going to want to secure as many playoff games in Boston as possible.

2) Rondo will be one of only 2 Celtics All Stars this year. I think the narrative has been established now that Rondo is the new face for the Celtics, and since he is still young and improving he will be the one that catches the kudos for the team's big surge in wins this year.  The "Big 3" in Boston are considered to be faded, and Ray is likely the one that starts losing accolades first with either Paul or KG or both not far behind.

3) KG will make you believe it's 2008 again.  The established narrative on Garnett is that due to a combo of age/games played he has declined dramatically in the last 2 years.  Personally, I believe a lot of his "decline" is more "he got hurt".  Now, I have no realistic expectation that we'll ever see 27-year old KG again.  Not at age 34.  However, I think many will be shocked at how much more 34-year old healthy KG resembles 32-year old KG (as opposed to 33-year old hobbling KG).

4) At least one of the O'Neals, if not both, will be hailed as having a renaissance year. I've seen it happen before, and I expect history likely repeats this year: the Celtics are going to look great, and the O'Neals are going to be scoring more efficiently and looking better on defense as well.  Expect them to be getting some nice kudos by next spring.

[Rondo2287]

I have always Believed!!!!!! ALWAYYYSSSSSSSS

[moiso]

A few random predictions as camp approaches, just getting them on the record in preparation for the new season.

1) Celtics will win at least 62 games this year. I want to put that number higher, but after winning only 50 last year I don't have to set the bar that high to be making a "bold" prediction.  Last year's team seemed to believe that health was more important than HCA...and they were probably right.  But with the LA loss in game 7 on top of the media wave from Miami and the increased depth, I expect this year's bunch is going to want to secure as many playoff games in Boston as possible.

2) Rondo will be one of only 2 Celtics All Stars this year. I think the narrative has been established now that Rondo is the new face for the Celtics, and since he is still young and improving he will be the one that catches the kudos for the team's big surge in wins this year.  The "Big 3" in Boston are considered to be faded, and Ray is likely the one that starts losing accolades first with either Paul or KG or both not far behind.

3) KG will make you believe it's 2008 again.  The established narrative on Garnett is that due to a combo of age/games played he has declined dramatically in the last 2 years.  Personally, I believe a lot of his "decline" is more "he got hurt".  Now, I have no realistic expectation that we'll ever see 27-year old KG again.  Not at age 34.  However, I think many will be shocked at how much more 34-year old healthy KG resembles 32-year old KG (as opposed to 33-year old hobbling KG).

4) At least one of the O'Neals, if not both, will be hailed as having a renaissance year. I've seen it happen before, and I expect history likely repeats this year: the Celtics are going to look great, and the O'Neals are going to be scoring more efficiently and looking better on defense as well.  Expect them to be getting some nice kudos by next spring.

I think they will win at least in the high 50's, possibly 62 depending on who gets hurt.

I agree with #2.

As for #3, I think KG will be somewhere in between 2008 and 2010.

Don't really agree with #4.  I expect the O'Neal's to maintain their patterns.  Which, I think, translates into Jermaine getting hurt and being considered somewhat of a dissappointment considering his age, salary, and the inflated opinion that many seam to have of him.
As for Shaq, I think that even if he maintains his production from last year off the bench people will be thrilled with his performance.  It's going to be great having a guy like that coming off the bench.  Compared with some of our past bigs off the bench, Shaq will seem amazing.  His offensive efficiency will be pleasing to everyone.

[MelissaF]

Great post by you and i totally agree on it.Thanks for sharing.

[drza44]

A few random predictions as camp approaches, just getting them on the record in preparation for the new season.

...

4) At least one of the O'Neals, if not both, will be hailed as having a renaissance year. I've seen it happen before, and I expect history likely repeats this year: the Celtics are going to look great, and the O'Neals are going to be scoring more efficiently and looking better on defense as well.  Expect them to be getting some nice kudos by next spring.

Too early to really grade most of my predictions, but I had to laugh when I clicked through FLCeltsfan's links and saw this article titled, you guessed it, "The Renaissance of Shaquille O'Neal"

http://northstationsports.com/administrative/uncategorized/the-renaissance-of-shaquille-oneal/

Just call me Nostra-drz-mas 

[drza44]

Never got to update this thread at the start of the year like I'd hoped with a lot of the NBA prediction articles around...I may get to go back and do that at some point, but I just ran across the "3peat or Heat" page on Foxsports ( http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/page/heat-or-threepeat ) that is dedicated entirely to the Lakers and Heat over the course of the season, which obviously suggests that that site only expects one of those 2 teams to win.  And of course, there's the Heat Index on ESPN ( http://espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/ ).  I didn't find a similar page on CNNSI or CBSSportsline, at least in a quick search.

Aw, heck.  If I'm going to later be looking for stories that change, I guess I need some baseline stories to work with.  While I'm here, some of the early pre-season predictions that the major sites put out:

*ESPN: 10-person panel, all predicted Celtics either 2nd or 3rd in East (avg 2.8  ).  http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-Celtics

*Sports Illustrated: 6 person panel, 3 pick Celtics to win East and 2 pick Cs to win title. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/basketball/nba/10/25/2010-11-preseason-crystal-ball/

*Charley Rosen (Foxsports) expected another Lakers/Celtics Final, with the Lakers once again winning.  http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/Predictions-for-the-2010-11-NBA-season-102110

*Yahoo's 4-person panel.  All 4 pick Lakers out West, 2 pick Celts and 2 pick Heat in East, Woj picks Cs to win title.  http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ys-expertpredictions102610

*ESPN's even bigger 25 person panel: 17 pick Heat to win East, 6 pick Cs, 2 pick Magic. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-East

The panel follows that up with 12 picking the Heat wo win Finals, 12 picking the Lakers, and 1 (Chris FOrsberg) picking the Cs.  http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-NBAchamps

*Peter Vecsey doesn't pick the Heat to win the East, but also doesn't pick the Celtics.  Picks the Magic to represent the East. http://www.nypost.com/f/print/sports/more_sports/the_time_championship_dwight_for_BYhc6lxjhwuRPeuOSltKwM

*Hollinger's prediction: "Boston will be a huge favorite to win the division -- it might be the only team over .500, in fact -- and still has the trump card that it matches up so well with Orlando. Unfortunately, the Celtics are unlikely to get to the point where it's just them and the Magic left standing, and they still have uppity rivals like the Bulls, Bucks and Hawks nipping at their heels. The Celtics' defense and chemistry will keep them near the top, but I'm not seeing enough firepower to provide a repeat of last season's run. At the end of the day, I think they'll be exactly what they were a year ago from November to April. It's the ending that I see changing.

Prediction: 51-31, 1st in Atlantic, 3rd in Eastern Conference" ( http://celticsgreen.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=bchistorian&action=display&thread=6692 Link is to Celtics board that quotes the entire article)

*Rosenberg from SI not very high on Shaq, but thinks he sure is amusing: "Shaq is in Boston now, hoping to be the final piece that brings the Celtics a championship. Last year, he was supposed to be the Cavs' final piece. Before that, Phoenix's final piece. It hasn't worked yet. Shaq is not the first-generation athletic-freak Shaq, or even the second-generation still-dominant Shaq, and he might not even be the third-generation flashes-now-and-again Shaq." http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/michael_rosenberg/10/11/shaq.celtics/

*Basketball Prospectus (2nd hand, through Celtics site): The book's co-writer Bradford Doolittle writes that "The slippage will be readily apparent on the defensive end in particular. The offseason could have gone very differently for Boston. In a few months, Celtics fans wish it had." http://www.celticsblog.com/2010/10/5/1732170/basketball-prospectus-2010-11-on-the-celtics

[Celtics4ever]

You know I am really glad when ESPN doesn't pick us because that means good things.  They don't know their butts from a hole in the ground most of the time.

[Eat Your Greenys]

True! Im excited. We have such a great shot of getting that ring!  As long as everyone can stay healthy and on their game..The Celtics are UNSTOPPABLE!
 

[Eat Your Greenys]

rebus is on the record

[drza44]

The Perk trade isn't exactly what I had in mind with this thread, but it strikes me that it fits.  The trade was a national event that has been weighed in on (heavily) by all of the national pundits.  My general impression from the national media was not positive, that the Celtics had weakened themselves.  That they are no longer elite defensively, that they no longer can take advantage of their size, and that they may not even be championship contenders anymore.  I don't believe any of that to be the case.  So, let's record some of the impressions now for posterity so we'll know where people stood on this when it happened.

ESPN John Hollinger: Celtics take risk by dealing Perkins: "But what about the present? This is a team built to win right now, and one can argue today's moves push the Celtics further away from that goal." http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Celtics-Thunder-110224

ESPN Ric Bucher: "Celtics have come back to the pack"...Their huge advantage in the Eastern conference, which was their size, is gone...If they get to the NBA Finals, I don't like them against the Lakers now.  Or, if they get to the Finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder.  I don't like them against them. (embedded video interview inside this link:
http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nba/news/story?id=6155082 )

ESPN Peter May: Celtics did well.  "But to listen to some my colleagues on Thursday afternoon, you'd have thought the Celtics had traded away Bill Russell. ESPN's Jalen Rose flatly declared the Celtics will not get out of the East after this deal. (There was no guarantee they would, had they done nothing.) Ric Bucher and Chris Broussard were baffled that the Celtics would give up such a key player as Perkins."..."Yes, it was a shocker. No, no one saw it coming. Yes, undoubtedly, more is yet to come. But if everyone can step back and examine Perkins and his game unemotionally (admittedly, that's hard, given all that he did to come back), this is a good deal for the Celtics. They got a 7-footer in return. And they got the better player in the deal."

(embedded video: Chris Broussard, Celtics biggest loser at trade deadline and deal makes no sense.  )

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nba/columns/story?columnist=may_peter&id=6156222

Matt Moore, CBSSportsline: "Basically, Boston has bailed on a centerpiece of their championship title contention, along with a talented backup point guard for an inconsistent, non-rebounding three-point shooting, stretch four and a very stiff center with size." http://eye-on-basketball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22748484/27642007

Foxsports - NBA trade deadline winners and losers: Loser: Boston Celtics.  The Celtics were bigger and tougher than every other team in the league. Now they're not. http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/lists/NBA-trade-deadline-winners-losers-022411#photo-title=Loser:%20Boston%20Celtics&photo=28583027

Kelly Dwyer, Yahoo: Celtics stun NBA with pair of deals.  "It's truly hard to see what Danny Ainge sees in these moves." http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/The-Celtics-stun-the-NBA-with-a-pair-of-deals?urn=nba-325990

TNT crew (Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith): Smith - "Now you go into Boston and the defense isn't there because it wasn't Kendrick (Perkins) by himself and it wasn't Kevin Garnett," TNT analyst Kenny Smith said. "It was a combination of those two guys that made you say, 'beware of dog.' And so when you went to that gate, you were like, 'let me see whats going on' and now that sign isn't there anymore."

Barkley - "Kendrick Perkins was a good solid defender, but with Jeff Green and (Nenad) Krstic, I like this team better now in the playoffs"

http://www.wusa9.com/news/article/138012/302/Celtics-gamble-on-Green

Ian Thomsen CNNSI: Trade yields more questions than answers http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/ian_thomsen/02/24/trade.deadline.roundup/index.html

Ken Berger CBSSporsline: Trade was business, and a risk the Celtics had to take.  http://www.cbssports.com/nba/story/14735054/the-reason-boston-dealt-favoriteson-perkins-business

My take: Perk was family, and losing that hurts.  But on-court, this trade makes the Celtics better.  http://www.celticsblog.com/2011/2/25/2014694/the-celtics-are-better-today-for-this-year-than-they-were-yesterday