Paul's offseason decision

[JSD]

Paul Pierce will make an interesting decision this off-season and surprise a lot of people on here. He will opt out of the final year of his contract with a long term deal in place to retire a Celtic. I don't have an inside source or any of that nonsense, this is my prediction. With a contract of this magnitude and the Celtics deep into the LT he holds the bargaining chips. The Celtics would jump at the opportunity to lessen their payroll for 2011 and sign him long term. Pierce's incentive is simple, if he doesn't opt out and take less he's in for a big pay cut come 2012.

Pierces path:

1:

2011 - $21 Million
2012 - $06 Million
2013 - $07 Million
2014 - $08 Million
---------------------------
$42 Million over 4 years

2:

2011 - $14 Million
2012 - $14 Million
2013 - $14 Million
2014 - $14 Million
---------------------------
$56 Million over 4 years

[ACF]

That's one Tommy Point now and 5 when it comes true 

[Roy Hobbs]

Why would the Celtics be willing to commit $56 million over the next four years now, but only $42 million if he waits?

If this team only offers Pierce a three year, $21 million contract when he hits free agency, some other team will sign him.  I mean, that's Mike Bibby money.  That's simply not going to happen.

I don't think Pierce will opt out.  There's nothing that prevents him from playing out his contract, and then working out an extension.  That's how I see it playing out.

[JSD]

Why would the Celtics be willing to commit $56 million over the next four years now, but only $42 million if he waits?

I explained this in my OP. The Celtics would benefit instantly from a lower LT (According to shamsports, a savings $14 Million total in 2011) but will pay market value if and when he becomes unrestricted (market value being MLE).

If this team only offers Pierce a three year, $21 million contract when he hits free agency, some other team will sign him.  I mean, that's Mike Bibby money.  That's simply not going to happen.

I don't think Pierce will opt out.  There's nothing that prevents him from playing out his contract, and then working out an extension.  That's how I see it playing out.

When Pierce becomes a free agent who is going to offer anything more than the MLE? A team under the cap in 2011 is in rebuilding mode and has no need for a player like Pierce.

This off-season we've seen Wallace, AI, Ron Artest and Trevor Ariza settle for the MLE or less.

[JSD]

That's one Tommy Point now and 5 when it comes true 

Thanks my man. back at ya! 

I'll bump this next summer either way (to say I was wrong or right)

 

[Celts17Pride]

I agree there is a good chance Pierce will opt out and immediately resign with the Celtics. Pierce will do this to keep the team together and avoid another 2007 season. I think Pierce will get a 3 year deal that looks something like below.

2011 - $16 Million
2012 - $16 Million
2013 - $16 Million
---------------------------
$48 Million over 3 years

I think Ray will get a 3 year deal worth $30 million (team option for the 3rd year). That would be a savings of $13 million per season for the Celtics compared to the present. Rondo will get some of that money. KG will be extended for 1 year (team option) and then all bets are off after 2013.

Something like this is what I expect to happen but who knows? Should be interesting with Danny Ainge running the operations.

[mgent]

Why would the Celtics be willing to commit $56 million over the next four years now, but only $42 million if he waits?

I explained this in my OP. The Celtics would benefit instantly from a lower LT (According to shamsports, a savings $14 Million total in 2011) but will pay market value if and when he becomes unrestricted (market value being MLE).

If this team only offers Pierce a three year, $21 million contract when he hits free agency, some other team will sign him.  I mean, that's Mike Bibby money.  That's simply not going to happen.

I don't think Pierce will opt out.  There's nothing that prevents him from playing out his contract, and then working out an extension.  That's how I see it playing out.

When Pierce becomes a free agent who is going to offer anything more than the MLE? A team under the cap in 2011 is in rebuilding mode and has no need for a player like Pierce.

This off-season we've seen Wallace, AI, Ron Artest and Trevor Ariza settle for the MLE or less.

Pierce is way better than any of those guys.  He's a franchise player.  He's definitely gonna find more than the MLE.

There's no good reason for him to opt out.  And there's no good reason for the Celtics to not sign him to another large contract.

[Fan from VT]

I'm not sure I see it happening. When's the last time something like this happened in the NBA? I've never seen a player past their prime decline 20 million dollars to sign a longer deal. It always makes sense to take the 20 mill then do the best you can the next year.

[the_Bird]

Pierce's game would have to decline a LOT in the next two years for him to be only an MLE-level player (implied by the $6M projected salary). 

I tend to think of Pierce in two years as being about equivalent to Ray Allen today.  Ray's a little older, got a little more wear and tear, but both long-time All-Star wings.  What kind of extension is Ray Allen thinking about, now?  $10M/year?  $12M?  Something in that ballpark?

Short of a significant injury or a 'Toine/Steve Francis-like dropoff in production, I don't see there being a huge risk for Paul playing out his contract. 

In reality, what'll happen is they'll negotiate an extension next summer.  Paul's the face of the franchise, they aren't going to let him walk.  They want him to represent this whole era of Celtics basketball.  In 2020, when Paul's in the HOF and we're celebrating Banner 23, they want Paul in the building to shake the new star's hand.  They won't disrespect him by asking him to opt out, and Paul won't leave money on the table.

[JSD]

They won't disrespect him by asking him to opt out, and Paul won't leave money on the table.

How is it disrespectful?

[the_Bird]

Because they'll be asking him to take a pay cut in 2011 instead of just giving him an extension starting in 2012.

[slamtheking]

Why would the Celtics be willing to commit $56 million over the next four years now, but only $42 million if he waits?

I explained this in my OP. The Celtics would benefit instantly from a lower LT (According to shamsports, a savings $14 Million total in 2011) but will pay market value if and when he becomes unrestricted (market value being MLE).

If this team only offers Pierce a three year, $21 million contract when he hits free agency, some other team will sign him.  I mean, that's Mike Bibby money.  That's simply not going to happen.

I don't think Pierce will opt out.  There's nothing that prevents him from playing out his contract, and then working out an extension.  That's how I see it playing out.

When Pierce becomes a free agent who is going to offer anything more than the MLE? A team under the cap in 2011 is in rebuilding mode and has no need for a player like Pierce.

This off-season we've seen Wallace, AI, Ron Artest and Trevor Ariza settle for the MLE or less.

Pierce isn't going to get lowballed into the MLE.  Your contract expectations are a bit out of whack.  There's a lot of teams dumping salary for the next round of free agency.  That's when you're proposing Pierce hit the market and only figure he'll get MLE $?  He won't get a Lebron/Wade level salary offer but there'll be teams that will miss on those 2 and Bosh and won't hesitate to offer him $10 mill or better for 3 years.  He's much better than any of the players you listed that took MLE this year.  Only Sheed or Artest could have expected more had there been as much money available this year as next and they wouldn't have gotten what Pierce would get.

Pierce won't be opting out of $21 mill a year. C's will sign an extension with him for something like 3 years/$30-33 mill.  He still produces at a very high level. Hopefully that contract would be a declining amount per year -- 11,10,9 or 12, 11, 10.

Ray will probably sign something similar after this year but for probably about $2 mill a year less.

[Fafnir]

They won't disrespect him by asking him to opt out, and Paul won't leave money on the table.

How is it disrespectful?

NBA players consider status based on how much money they make. So asking him to take a 1/3 pay cut or you think he'll get MLE money would be a rather insulting bargaining position to take.

Also you need to consider the possibility that the CBA could be changing.

[Rondo2287]

I dunno, I think we get spoiled with the likes of certain guys taking hometown discounts to play here as well as field an incredibly competitive team.  Brady did it to get Moss and so on.  I would like to think that paul will do it to, but at the same time, look what happened to Bronson Arroyo, took a home town discount and then traded for willy mo. 

[Fafnir]

I dunno, I think we get spoiled with the likes of certain guys taking hometown discounts to play here as well as field an incredibly competitive team.  Brady did it to get Moss and so on.  I would like to think that paul will do it to, but at the same time, look what happened to Bronson Arroyo, took a home town discount and then traded for willy mo. 

Depends on what happens.

If we win a title, maybe we work out extensions for Rondo and Pierce. But honestly I don't think any extension will give up money for Paul. It likely would be structured like KGs. He would make his 21 million and then see his salary level drop down to 10/12/14/whatever.