CB Draft '09 Mock Press Conference: Southwest Division

[The Walker Wiggle]

I'm going to cover these two together as I think they relate, although one worries me more than the other.

Question For Houston:  Any concerns about having 6 rookies on your team while trying to win now?

From a player development stand point it's not ideal. But, I’m not ready to call it a mistake. It’s mostly a consequence of my growing preference for selecting (undervalued?) rookies in the middle and late rounds of the draft. (I took the same approach last summer.) I can't seem to break the habit.

But I’m not concerned about it preventing Houston from contending since, with one exception, we’re discussing players 10 or 11 through 15. Three of the six won’t make the team’s active playoff roster. Or to turn the question back to Toronto - if that’s alright? - the Raptors chose to carry only twelve players,  would you be at any more of a disadvantage if you carried three additional rookies?

And while we’re on the subject, I’d also throw it out there, that, with the exception of Summers and Jerebko (currently 14th and 15th on the team’s depth chart), Houston has targeted rookies that actual pro teams have tagged as NBA ready. Andersen is not a typical rookie. He’s a well traveled twenty-nine year old with nothing left to win internationally. He compares better to recent arrival Luis Scola in that regard. Early talk has him slotted in as a starter. Blair, Clark, and Thornton are also being discussed as rotations players. I expect DeJuan in particular, to perform as an above average replacement player immediately.

Houston: As a win now team, only one of your main guys was on a winning team.  Is this a concern?

On the other hand, Houston’s lack of championship experience and finals experience is a very real concern. It’s what makes the Nets a much better team then they are being given credit for. And I won’t downplay it.

That said, I consider Grant Hill a winner. I consider Bobby Jackson a winner. We hope and believe that Leon Powe will make a full recovery before the playoffs start. David Andersen has three Euroleague championship rings among his very crowded trophy case.

Joe Johnson has elevated a thin, unsteady Hawks team with a bad coach to 50 wins and, most recently, a second round birth.

Chris Bosh has been learning the lessons of KG before him. He has an Atlantic division banner and a gold medal, very much wants to shoulder the burdens of a franchise player, and has never had this type of talent around him.

Is it enough?  Possibly not. But my belief is that talent at the top, chemistry, and depth win out.

[nickagneta]

Just one GM's view of the Southwest Division, for what it's worth:

1.) Houston - by halfway through the season this group will figure out who should be starting and who should be coming off the bench and who will be giving them the best minutes in their rotation. When they do, they will be a tough, late season team and someone most teams won't want to play come playoff time.

2.) Dallas - they get second place but could just as easily be in third. They definitely have talent but they definitely have personalities and I don't mean that as a compliment. But if Kidd can have one last good season, Marion comes back o his Phoenix self, Smith can go a whole season with his team mates wanting to kill him, and the rest of the players can all fit in the same locker room with these egos, they could be very good.

3.) Memphis - probably a slightly below .500 team who will be fighting with Utah for the final playoff position. They have a real good starting five but their lack of rebounding will be this team's Achilles heal. Mo Williams could be Sixth Man of the Year award winner.

4.) San Antonio - this is not a good team. It's too small and too many player that are over rated and like to cruise. The beat out the Kobe's simply because the Kobe's don't have anyone around Kobe that will help him win games.

5.) New Orleans - This team is 4 years away from being .500 as currently constructed. It doesn't even have the talent to compete for Future Team of the Year because it's young talent is young and not all that talented.

[indeedproceed]

Just one GM's view of the Southwest Division, for what it's worth:

1.) Houston - by halfway through the season this group will figure out who should be starting and who should be coming off the bench and who will be giving them the best minutes in their rotation. When they do, they will be a tough, late season team and someone most teams won't want to play come playoff time.

2.) Dallas - they get second place but could just as easily be in third. They definitely have talent but they definitely have personalities and I don't mean that as a compliment. But if Kidd can have one last good season, Marion comes back o his Phoenix self, Smith can go a whole season with his team mates wanting to kill him, and the rest of the players can all fit in the same locker room with these egos, they could be very good.

3.) Memphis - probably a slightly below .500 team who will be fighting with Utah for the final playoff position. They have a real good starting five but their lack of rebounding will be this team's Achilles heal. Mo Williams could be Sixth Man of the Year award winner.

4.) San Antonio - this is not a good team. It's too small and too many player that are over rated and like to cruise. The beat out the Kobe's simply because the Kobe's don't have anyone around Kobe that will help him win games.

5.) New Orleans - This team is 4 years away from being .500 as currently constructed. It doesn't even have the talent to compete for Future Team of the Year because it's young talent is young and not all that talented.

I like:

1)Houston: I hate...HATE the randolph at center pick, but 2,3,4 are very,very solid. Monta Ellis off the bench would help this team in my eyes but I thikn they have the division.

2) San Antonio: This team could take Houston if they don't overcome their weaknesses. This is a well constructed team, and the flaws here are not as glaring. The talent isn't even, but the pieces fit better. That said, the talent is a clear terrace below Houston's.

3( Memphis: I like the versatility, I like the youth, I don't like the weak frontcourt (whether its rebounding, experience, or oompf, its flawed), and I don't think its a playoff team this year. Maybe, but unlikely.

4) Dallas: This is another talented team where I don't like the fits. David Lee, I like as a power forward. I think he'll get outclassed by most people outside of his division (because seriously, Brook Lopez aside, where are the good centers?) if he's playing a full time 5. I like Josh Smith as a 4, but not next to Shawn Marion  at the 3. Both players are better when they're somewhat our of position, mismatched, playing next to a traditional positional player. Marion was best next to a good 4 or a good 3. Smith is best next to a good 4 or a good 3. Jason Kidd I think has cheated death too many times. how much more can this guy have left in the tank? (I love Jennings though). Outside shooting is a major concern here. Maybe Dallas comes together like a fine 3 course dinner, but right now it looks like cold deviled eggs mixed with warm mac n cheese. Both things are good, but...not together.

5) New Orleans-I have real trouble putting Kobe last in a division, but the talent around him is really, really thin.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Joe Johnson Herculean? Sisyphean?

3rd in MPG, 13th in Scoring, 17th in assists, 18th in 3PM.

Also finished in the Top 50 in AST/TO, FGM, FTM, FT%, Steals…

Led his own 50 win team in six categories.

As I break down the Hawks by position, it is hard to truly look at anyone in this position other than Joe. There is the one, the three, the four, the five and the Joe Johnson.

Combines a fantastic outside shot with great ballhandling ability… Though he isn't particularly shifty, the threat of his jumper forces opponents to play him close and opens driving lanes, and at 6-7, 235 he has the size and strength to finish plays once he gets a step…

Monta Ellis Dips his hands in hot wax before games.

Only the ninth guard in league history to shoot at least 60 percent from the field for a MONTH. And the youngest?

That and the four straight 30+ point games during that stretch caused the often inane Stephen A. Smith of ESPN to raise his own game to new levels!

He has enough potential to be as dominant as Jordan, maybe even better.

Did somebody leave the hype machine on?!

Ellis continued to obliterate any concerns about his left foot by averaging 23.5 points per game, shooting 49% from the field and 87% from the free-throw line during March. Then he opened the month of April by scoring a career-high 42 points, while also adding nine rebounds and nine assists.

Offensively, he's a fantastic finisher at the basket either in transition or off dribble drives in the half court, and when his midrange jumper is falling he's basically unguardable because of his speed. Ellis also cuts very well off the ball for alley-oops, and has made his formerly nonexistent left hand a more useful piece of his arsenal.

Ellis is amazingly quick for his size, and that speed enables him to repeatedly beat defenses down the floor for easy baskets and run down loose balls with ease. He's also good at cutting off opposing point guards' penetration for this reason, and slid into position to draw 42 offensive fouls [in '07-'08] - only two guards accepted more.

[jgod213]

IP, i respect your opinion, but i disagree with our team at 4th.  You mention that the SW is weak at the C/F positions, therefore i not only see Lee surviving at center within the Division but thriving.  We don't have much of an answer for Monta Ellis, Rip Hamilton, or Fernandez, but i don't see those teams matching up with our bigs at all.  Bosh is the class of the bigs in the SW, but a combination of Lee or Smith should be able to keep with him well.  Randolph at 200lbs will not be able to help Bosh against the likes of Lee/Smith/and Dalembert on the boards.  Same goes for Diaw and Bargnani.  Lopez is solid but he's all alone out there.

I don't see any team in the SW with the depth of the Mavs.  San Antonio is close, but they have no one scary for a big outside of odom, who would be forced to play bigger then he would like against our team.

[indeedproceed]

IP, i respect your opinion, but i disagree with our team at 4th.  You mention that the SW is weak at the C/F positions, therefore i not only see Lee surviving at center within the Division but thriving.  We don't have much of an answer for Monta Ellis, Rip Hamilton, or Fernandez, but i don't see those teams matching up with our bigs at all.  Bosh is the class of the bigs in the SW, but a combination of Lee or Smith should be able to keep with him well.  Randolph at 200lbs will not be able to help Bosh against the likes of Lee/Smith/and Dalembert on the boards.  Same goes for Diaw and Bargnani.  Lopez is solid but he's all alone out there.

I don't see any team in the SW with the depth of the Mavs.  San Antonio is close, but they have no one scary for a big outside of odom, who would be forced to play bigger then he would like against our team.

Like I say, I like Smith, Marion, and Lee all as players, but between the 3 of them I think there are too many guys playing a little out of position.

Trading one of Marion/Smith for a player like Lopez, or even a guy like Pryzbilla (he's a binky, I know), or Brendan Haywood or Jeff Foster I think significantly ties up your loose ends.

Your team was hard, heck the whole division was hard for me to rate because the one team that did fit together cleanly, San An, has a lower overall talent then 2 teams in the division, maybe even 3. But, the other 3 strong teams all had a huge weakness (like Houston), or didn't quite fit, like Dallas and Memphis.

[BigAlTheFuture]

San Antonio:

1) I'm having a really hard time deciding between your team and Houston.  Why are you better?

2) What type of offense do you intend to run?

3) Is Kirilenko as emotionally weak as many (i.e., me) think he is?

1. We have more depth and our team fit better together.

2. Up tempo. Derrick Rose likes to push the ball and the guys we have fit nicely with Rose.

3. He's not our number 1 option, so I don't see it being a big deal.

[BigAlTheFuture]

I see my team ranking at least top 3 in the division. The way I see it, its:

1a. Dallas
1b. San Antonio
3. Houston
4. Memphis
5. New Orleans

We have a great shot at winning the division because I don't think Kidd can keep up with Rose and I don't think Terry can defend Rip.

Jarrett Jack, Willie Green, and Andrei Kirilenko can all be starters on other teams and I think when we put in the 2nd unit. We can not only hold the lead but extend it. I think we are a really deep and versatile team.

[Roy Hobbs]

San Antonio,

My biggest question mark is your center rotation.  Neither Chris Wilcox nor Reggie Evans is really a center.  Isn't that going to hurt you?

Also, neither Odom nor Kirilenko is known for their work ethic.  Could that be a problem?

[BigAlTheFuture]

San Antonio,

My biggest question mark is your center rotation.  Neither Chris Wilcox nor Reggie Evans is really a center.  Isn't that going to hurt you?

Also, neither Odom nor Kirilenko is known for their work ethic.  Could that be a problem?

It is going to hurt us. But it wouldn't hurt us to the point that would cost us games. I don't see it as a big concern. Chris Wilcox can put up big numbers if he's given playing time.

Their work ethic isn't going to be a problem. Odom and Kirilenko is going to contribute regardless. It won't get to the point where they would stop trying.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Any worries about Anthony Randolph at center?

1)Houston: I hate...HATE the randolph at center pick.

(From first to worst! Thanks, IP.)

But to respond, nobody bought my slight of hand?

Bosh has thrived thus far starting alongside the likes of the face-up, 6'9" Jorge Garbajosa (on a team that won the Atlantic division) and perimeter threat and work in progress Andres Bargnani. Well Randolph is already a better rebounder, shot blocker and interior presence than either. How doesn’t he compare favorably to pre-2009 All Star break Andres? As a three-and-half-years-younger 19 year old rookie? So where’s the beef?

That said. It’s all smoke and mirrors. Randolph tips off and will defend the league’s best opposing centers in spot minutes as a different look, and the league’s worst centers in spot minutes to provide Bosh with relief, but that’s it.

Chris filled fully half of the Raptors center minutes last season, out-scored and out-rebounded opposing centers, drew twice the number of fouls, and posted a +6.5 PER differential. He’s 6th in the NBA in rebounding, despite concerns about his build, and in Beijing led the US Men’s team in boards.

I’m also high on David Andersen. Who comes off the bench as a skilled (near) 7 footer, with a high basketball IQ and great versatility on the high post, in terms of shooting and ball handling.  He’s also a very good team defender, if not a strong rebounder. But then no one plays minutes for Ettore Messina when they’re not playing hard, playing fundamentally sound basketball and boxing out. He has the opportunity to be the best big man taken outside of the first six or seven rounds.

[RebusRankin]

Willie Green is not a starter.

[BigAlTheFuture]

Willie Green is not a starter.

He started in the real life Sixers and was an important part to their team. But he doesn't start on the made up Spurs so its whatever.

[johnnyrondo]

Any worries about Anthony Randolph at center?

1)Houston: I hate...HATE the randolph at center pick.

(From first to worst! Thanks, IP.)

But to respond, nobody bought my slight of hand?

Bosh has thrived thus far starting alongside the likes of the face-up, 6'9" Jorge Garbajosa (on a team that won the Atlantic division) and perimeter threat and work in progress Andres Bargnani. Well Randolph is already a better rebounder, shot blocker and interior presence than either. How doesn’t he compare favorably to pre-2009 All Star break Andres? As a three-and-half-years-younger 19 year old rookie? So where’s the beef?

That said. It’s all smoke and mirrors. Randolph tips off and will defend the league’s best opposing centers in spot minutes as a different look, and the league’s worst centers in spot minutes to provide Bosh with relief, but that’s it.

Chris filled fully half of the Raptors center minutes last season, out-scored and out-rebounded opposing centers, drew twice the number of fouls, and posted a +6.5 PER differential. He’s 6th in the NBA in rebounding, despite concerns about his build, and in Beijing led the US Men’s team in boards.

I’m also high on David Andersen. Who comes off the bench as a skilled (near) 7 footer, with a high basketball IQ and great versatility on the high post, in terms of shooting and ball handling.  He’s also a very good team defender, if not a strong rebounder. But then no one plays minutes for Ettore Messina when they’re not playing hard, playing fundamentally sound basketball and boxing out. He has the opportunity to be the best big man taken outside of the first six or seven rounds.

I figured you were planning on playing Bosh there. I think you've done a good job presenting your case today and I do think that Houston will be the most dangerous South West team come playoff time.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Also, although I believe it's a fist fight in an underrated division (by Denver's GM in particular!), I don't see how my front court rotation keeps me from taking first place, not when three of my competitors are starting David Lee, Chris Wilcox, and Joakim Noah respectively. (I don't dismiss any of the players in question, and I'm particularly a fan of Lee, but they don't present troublesome mismatches for us.)

Lopez might, but thus far Bosh has out-scored and out-rebounded him handily. I expect Chris will press that advantage for at least one more season.